Monday, March 29, 2004
Merry Baseball/Rotation Preview
Opening Eve
Where you one of those kids who got up at the crack of dawn and rushed down the stairs to see what was under the tree for you on Christmas morning? Wait a minute--weren't we all? Well, that sacred baseball holiday, Opening Day, is upon us, and the players are penciled in the lineups with care, hoping a trip to the World Series will soon be there. Our fun begins early Tuesday morning, when we can rush to the television and see what MLB has in store for us in 2004 when the AL Champion New York Yankees take on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at 5:05 ET on ESPN2. Visions of mammoth home runs will be dancing in my head tonight and let me say I can't wait to open my present--the regular season--tomorrow morning. Are you getting up early too?
The Rotation--Bartolo Colon
Every rotation needs a workhorse for its ace. The Angels have one. Bartolo Colon has finished in the top 10 in IP the last 3 seasons in the AL (adding his MON totals w/ his CLE totals in 2002). BC goes deep often, and it shows with his 82 decisions in the past 3 years (49 W). At 30, he's established, he's strong, and he's low risk. He's one of the top 20 starters in baseball, top 10 in the AL. He's gonna give you an ERA under 4 (maybe closer to 3) and his declining k/9 took a step back up in '03 without affecting his always superb control. With the Angels offense he has behind him, I'd expect Colon to hit 15 W's easy, maybe closing in on the big 2-0. As long as he keeps it in the park (and Angel Stadium is the best pitcher's park he's ever called home), he'll be great this year.
Jarrod Washburn
At #2, Washburn looks to rebound from his worst season on the hill. He won 18 games in '02 with an ERA of almost 3 flat (3.15). Can we expect a rebound this year? Watch two things: Ks and HRs. In '02, he posted a 6.1 k/9 rate, which was just below league average. Last year--5.1. Doesn't sound like big drop, but it is. He can maybe get away with striking out less because of his excellent control, but he's got to fan more than five per nine. Also, last year he allowed homer-and-a-half per 9 (read: awful) where in '02, it was less than one a start. He's got to keep it this side of the fence in '04 to be effective. My guess? Forget the 3 ERA. He's got to fan closer to his '02 totals before he'll sniff even a 3-something. The Ws could return though with the run support.
Kelvim Escobar
Of all the Angels starters, he's the only one I saw throw live last year, and let me tell ya, he can be flat sick. There's no question he's got the talent and the stuff. Last year he returned to the rotation after spending '02 in the pen. As a starter last year, he went 12-8 and posted a sub-4 ERA. This year he'll do it again with one caveat--2002 IP=78. 2003=180. That's a huge jump. His first and second half stats were a lot alike (ERA 4.30 both halves, WHIP decreased 0.01 in 2nd half), and he actually went 8-4 after the break. Where's the problem? He struck out almost 3 batters less per 9, while increasing his bb/9 to 4. That's definitely a sign of tiring out. He's been in the rotation before, so that's a plus, but to ignore those 2nd half realities in '03 would be dangerous.
John Lackey
Let's face it--John Lackey was definitely found lacking in his first full year on the mound. Some raw data: 10-16, 4.63 ERA, 1.42 WHIP in '03. Not for real then? Not so fast. Lackey improved over the course of his first full season (2nd half ERA=3.47). He's striking out more hitters per 9 now than he was in the minors. That's certainly something to note, considering numbers like that usually go the other way when advancing a level. His control is superb (a trend for this rotation), and his only weakness last year was really a tendency to give up the long ball (another trend in this rotation). He's only 25, and if he continues to grow, he'll turn into the pitcher that people thought he was during late '02. My guess--Lackey won't be lacking that much longer.
The 5 Hole
I'm calling this spot the five hole because whoever ends up with it doesn't deserve to have their name on it. The two candidates? Ramon Ortiz and Aaron Sele. Ortiz posted a 5.20 ERA last year and Sele a 5.79. Ortiz gives out HRs like they're breath mints and has for 5 years. He's not overpowering and his OBA was .292 in '03. How did he win 16 then? Try 6.35 run support, 4th in AL, 9th in MLB. Sele looked terrible last year, and while he was battling injury, his k/9 has fallen 5 straight years and his hr/9 has risen for 4 straight. Now, I'm not Emeril, but that's a recipe for disaster. Add the fact that he BBed more than he Ked over 121 IP last year and I'd steer clear if I was Scioscia. Who should get the spot then? I'll tell ya who. Scot Shields. Will he? Not anytime soon.
Inside the Halo
For the interest of continuing at a rate that will get us caught up for the regular season, I'll cover the bullpen and the backstops at Inside the Halo at http://angelsflb.blogspot.com. In short, Percival's the closer, but he's on the way out, Brendan Donnelly is out with a potentially serious nose problem, and K-Rod could be looking at a much higher ERA this year. Next time, we'll go around the horn in the infield--and I'll tell ya it looks really good, expect for one major thing. For now, though, I've gotta go set out my milk and cookies the Yanks and D-Rays. I'm hoping Posada gives me a couple dingers as a stocking stuffer to get me started out right in the correspondent's league. Merry Baseball to all, and to all a good night. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Where you one of those kids who got up at the crack of dawn and rushed down the stairs to see what was under the tree for you on Christmas morning? Wait a minute--weren't we all? Well, that sacred baseball holiday, Opening Day, is upon us, and the players are penciled in the lineups with care, hoping a trip to the World Series will soon be there. Our fun begins early Tuesday morning, when we can rush to the television and see what MLB has in store for us in 2004 when the AL Champion New York Yankees take on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at 5:05 ET on ESPN2. Visions of mammoth home runs will be dancing in my head tonight and let me say I can't wait to open my present--the regular season--tomorrow morning. Are you getting up early too?
The Rotation--Bartolo Colon
Every rotation needs a workhorse for its ace. The Angels have one. Bartolo Colon has finished in the top 10 in IP the last 3 seasons in the AL (adding his MON totals w/ his CLE totals in 2002). BC goes deep often, and it shows with his 82 decisions in the past 3 years (49 W). At 30, he's established, he's strong, and he's low risk. He's one of the top 20 starters in baseball, top 10 in the AL. He's gonna give you an ERA under 4 (maybe closer to 3) and his declining k/9 took a step back up in '03 without affecting his always superb control. With the Angels offense he has behind him, I'd expect Colon to hit 15 W's easy, maybe closing in on the big 2-0. As long as he keeps it in the park (and Angel Stadium is the best pitcher's park he's ever called home), he'll be great this year.
Jarrod Washburn
At #2, Washburn looks to rebound from his worst season on the hill. He won 18 games in '02 with an ERA of almost 3 flat (3.15). Can we expect a rebound this year? Watch two things: Ks and HRs. In '02, he posted a 6.1 k/9 rate, which was just below league average. Last year--5.1. Doesn't sound like big drop, but it is. He can maybe get away with striking out less because of his excellent control, but he's got to fan more than five per nine. Also, last year he allowed homer-and-a-half per 9 (read: awful) where in '02, it was less than one a start. He's got to keep it this side of the fence in '04 to be effective. My guess? Forget the 3 ERA. He's got to fan closer to his '02 totals before he'll sniff even a 3-something. The Ws could return though with the run support.
Kelvim Escobar
Of all the Angels starters, he's the only one I saw throw live last year, and let me tell ya, he can be flat sick. There's no question he's got the talent and the stuff. Last year he returned to the rotation after spending '02 in the pen. As a starter last year, he went 12-8 and posted a sub-4 ERA. This year he'll do it again with one caveat--2002 IP=78. 2003=180. That's a huge jump. His first and second half stats were a lot alike (ERA 4.30 both halves, WHIP decreased 0.01 in 2nd half), and he actually went 8-4 after the break. Where's the problem? He struck out almost 3 batters less per 9, while increasing his bb/9 to 4. That's definitely a sign of tiring out. He's been in the rotation before, so that's a plus, but to ignore those 2nd half realities in '03 would be dangerous.
John Lackey
Let's face it--John Lackey was definitely found lacking in his first full year on the mound. Some raw data: 10-16, 4.63 ERA, 1.42 WHIP in '03. Not for real then? Not so fast. Lackey improved over the course of his first full season (2nd half ERA=3.47). He's striking out more hitters per 9 now than he was in the minors. That's certainly something to note, considering numbers like that usually go the other way when advancing a level. His control is superb (a trend for this rotation), and his only weakness last year was really a tendency to give up the long ball (another trend in this rotation). He's only 25, and if he continues to grow, he'll turn into the pitcher that people thought he was during late '02. My guess--Lackey won't be lacking that much longer.
The 5 Hole
I'm calling this spot the five hole because whoever ends up with it doesn't deserve to have their name on it. The two candidates? Ramon Ortiz and Aaron Sele. Ortiz posted a 5.20 ERA last year and Sele a 5.79. Ortiz gives out HRs like they're breath mints and has for 5 years. He's not overpowering and his OBA was .292 in '03. How did he win 16 then? Try 6.35 run support, 4th in AL, 9th in MLB. Sele looked terrible last year, and while he was battling injury, his k/9 has fallen 5 straight years and his hr/9 has risen for 4 straight. Now, I'm not Emeril, but that's a recipe for disaster. Add the fact that he BBed more than he Ked over 121 IP last year and I'd steer clear if I was Scioscia. Who should get the spot then? I'll tell ya who. Scot Shields. Will he? Not anytime soon.
Inside the Halo
For the interest of continuing at a rate that will get us caught up for the regular season, I'll cover the bullpen and the backstops at Inside the Halo at http://angelsflb.blogspot.com. In short, Percival's the closer, but he's on the way out, Brendan Donnelly is out with a potentially serious nose problem, and K-Rod could be looking at a much higher ERA this year. Next time, we'll go around the horn in the infield--and I'll tell ya it looks really good, expect for one major thing. For now, though, I've gotta go set out my milk and cookies the Yanks and D-Rays. I'm hoping Posada gives me a couple dingers as a stocking stuffer to get me started out right in the correspondent's league. Merry Baseball to all, and to all a good night. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
The Case for Scot Shields
If you've read the breakdown of the 5 hole in the Angels rotation, you know that Halos should pray for rain every fifth day. However, they wouldn't have to if they'd just throw both Sele and Ortiz in the pen and give the nod to Scot Shields. Why this isn't obvious is beyond me.
Shields posted a sub-3 ERA in 148 IP last year and a 3.89 ERA in 78 IP as a starter. That's more than a run better than both Ortiz and Sele. His control was unbelievable as a starter, with only 1.5 bb/9, compared to 3.2 for Ortiz and 4.3 for Sele. Some other obvious things that literally jump off the page for him are his k/9 rate. Shields: 6.7. Ortiz: 4.7. Sele: 3.9. Both Ortiz's and Sele's WHIPs were over 1.50, while Shields was under 1.20. Why this isn't obvious to Scioscia is beyond me. The only thing I can imagine is that Shields struggled mightily as a starter in AAA in '00 and '01. Still, his 5.29 ERA and 1.37 WHIP totals at Salt Lake in 2001 were better than Ortiz and Sele posted last year (okay, actually Ortiz's ERA was 5.20, but oooooh, Ortiz was better by 0.09. Big deal.). Ortiz actually had a complete game last year in which he struck out a grand total of zero. Further, Ortiz would actually be better in short stints or long relief. In 45 pitches or less last year, his OBA was around .250. After that it rose alarmingly to .314. Am I makin' any sense here?
There's really every reason to give Shields an opportunity to start again, especially after his brief stint in the rotation last year. We can only hope that Scioscia and pitching coach Bud Black will finally see the light early in the season when Sele's walkin' everyone who steps into the box, and Ortiz is backin' that up with more grand slams than Denny's. Please put Shields in the rotation, guys.
Shields posted a sub-3 ERA in 148 IP last year and a 3.89 ERA in 78 IP as a starter. That's more than a run better than both Ortiz and Sele. His control was unbelievable as a starter, with only 1.5 bb/9, compared to 3.2 for Ortiz and 4.3 for Sele. Some other obvious things that literally jump off the page for him are his k/9 rate. Shields: 6.7. Ortiz: 4.7. Sele: 3.9. Both Ortiz's and Sele's WHIPs were over 1.50, while Shields was under 1.20. Why this isn't obvious to Scioscia is beyond me. The only thing I can imagine is that Shields struggled mightily as a starter in AAA in '00 and '01. Still, his 5.29 ERA and 1.37 WHIP totals at Salt Lake in 2001 were better than Ortiz and Sele posted last year (okay, actually Ortiz's ERA was 5.20, but oooooh, Ortiz was better by 0.09. Big deal.). Ortiz actually had a complete game last year in which he struck out a grand total of zero. Further, Ortiz would actually be better in short stints or long relief. In 45 pitches or less last year, his OBA was around .250. After that it rose alarmingly to .314. Am I makin' any sense here?
There's really every reason to give Shields an opportunity to start again, especially after his brief stint in the rotation last year. We can only hope that Scioscia and pitching coach Bud Black will finally see the light early in the season when Sele's walkin' everyone who steps into the box, and Ortiz is backin' that up with more grand slams than Denny's. Please put Shields in the rotation, guys.
Bullpen/Backstop Preview
Hey, great, you made the trek over from the ESPN site. Let's take a look at the Halo bullpen, shall we? The Halos had an AL-leading 3.15 ERA last year and what's even better this year is that there really aren't any new faces from other places. Can we expect the same thing again? My answer would be--eh, maybe. How's that for bold?
Troy Percival
He's the closer. As well he should be. He's saved at least 27 games in each of the past eight seasons, the longest streak in the majors. Great run. Is it over? Not yet, but the time is approaching. He's 34, and that hip is just a tweak or two away from being serious all over again. While he's healthy, expect him to keep producing like he has been over the last eight year though. TP's still got all the skills and he'll ride those out as long as his body will let him. He's now longer a top 10 closer, but he's about as solid as it gets outside of the that group.
Save Opportunties?
It's all about the closer in fantasy baseball, the rest of the guys in the pen usually drawing little or no attention until they're giving us those saves we need so bad. Don't expect Brendan Donnelly to be giving you any soon. His nose condition, which has now resulted in three surgeries, is getting very serious. His return to should now be considered under the category of "no rush". His health's the most important and I think I speak for all of us when I say I wish him the best. K-Rod certainly still deserves his moniker and is now second in line behind Percy. He's got a great future ahead but there could be some speed bumps ahead. He got some great help in the field last year and was very fortunate. I would expect his 3.03 ERA to rise this year, maybe a lot. However, don't fret, he's still looking at great things ahead.
Blocking the Plate
The Halos will possibly break camp with three catchers--the Molinas and either Wil Nieves or Josh Paul. The only one who should concern you for your fantasy team is Molina--version Bengie. He's the two time defending AL Gold Glover back there, but that's not why he's fantasy viable. Around the All-Star Break last year, Bengie decided to start swinging at just about everything. Unlike most players who make this move, he still made contact almost all of the time. His power increased after this move as well, so it was double the pleasure. Never walking is bad, but hardly ever striking out makes up for it. Expect the HRs to stay this year, and--gasp--he could hit .300 this year. I know you just said, "What?", but it's true. The only worry you have with him on your roster is his hamstrings, which caused him to miss 15 games this spring and only allowed to complete his second game in a row yesterday. Scioscia says he won't play less once the season starts, but I'd keep an eye on it. Upside is 20 HR, .300 AVG. I know he's only hit over .280 twice in his career, but you can thank me in October if he does reach this admittedly rather lofty goal by the end of the season.
Troy Percival
He's the closer. As well he should be. He's saved at least 27 games in each of the past eight seasons, the longest streak in the majors. Great run. Is it over? Not yet, but the time is approaching. He's 34, and that hip is just a tweak or two away from being serious all over again. While he's healthy, expect him to keep producing like he has been over the last eight year though. TP's still got all the skills and he'll ride those out as long as his body will let him. He's now longer a top 10 closer, but he's about as solid as it gets outside of the that group.
Save Opportunties?
It's all about the closer in fantasy baseball, the rest of the guys in the pen usually drawing little or no attention until they're giving us those saves we need so bad. Don't expect Brendan Donnelly to be giving you any soon. His nose condition, which has now resulted in three surgeries, is getting very serious. His return to should now be considered under the category of "no rush". His health's the most important and I think I speak for all of us when I say I wish him the best. K-Rod certainly still deserves his moniker and is now second in line behind Percy. He's got a great future ahead but there could be some speed bumps ahead. He got some great help in the field last year and was very fortunate. I would expect his 3.03 ERA to rise this year, maybe a lot. However, don't fret, he's still looking at great things ahead.
Blocking the Plate
The Halos will possibly break camp with three catchers--the Molinas and either Wil Nieves or Josh Paul. The only one who should concern you for your fantasy team is Molina--version Bengie. He's the two time defending AL Gold Glover back there, but that's not why he's fantasy viable. Around the All-Star Break last year, Bengie decided to start swinging at just about everything. Unlike most players who make this move, he still made contact almost all of the time. His power increased after this move as well, so it was double the pleasure. Never walking is bad, but hardly ever striking out makes up for it. Expect the HRs to stay this year, and--gasp--he could hit .300 this year. I know you just said, "What?", but it's true. The only worry you have with him on your roster is his hamstrings, which caused him to miss 15 games this spring and only allowed to complete his second game in a row yesterday. Scioscia says he won't play less once the season starts, but I'd keep an eye on it. Upside is 20 HR, .300 AVG. I know he's only hit over .280 twice in his career, but you can thank me in October if he does reach this admittedly rather lofty goal by the end of the season.
Thursday, March 25, 2004
Traded!/Season Preview
I've Been Traded!
Following the same path Vladimir Guerrero took in free agency, I've crossed over from the NL East to the AL West in exchange for a bag of sunflower seeds, a bowl of ranch dip, and a correspondent to be named later. I would just like to say that I enjoyed my time with Montreal, but I'm pumped to be your source for all your Angels' fantasy fancies in 2004. My archive site is already up at http://angelsflb.blogspot.com, although most of what you'll find there at this point is a whole slew of Montreal Expos information disguised in a Halos' color scheme. But, my friends, that's all about to change from here on. The e-mail, angelsflb@insightbb.com, is all set up and ready for you to take advantage of as well. Any questions you have, feel free to shoot me a line.
Where to Begin?
It's less than a week until the first regular season game for MLB and we've gotta a lotta ground to cover. Despite my sporty new silver halo, I unfortunately don't have the supernatural ability to catch you completely up overnight. I will, however, over the course of the next few weeks (hopefully less) be giving you a piece-by-piece breakdown of the Halos. I'll work hard to get you up to speed with the rest of the league, and we'll hit our stride early enough in the season that it'll be like I was here from the first day of camp.
Remember that Silver Thing With All the Flags?
With a 77-85 finish in 2003, most folks outside the former Edison International, now Angel Stadium have forgotten about that hardware the Halos hoisted just two years ago. Is this team that far removed from the World Championship team of 2002? I think you'd be surprised. Obviously after adding Guerrero, Guillen, Escobar, and Colon the A's and Mariners certainly have good cause to look over their shoulders as see if that 19-game gap between the Angels and first place is going to shrink. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they definitely don't like what they see on the horizon.
Draft Quick Hits
While I don't have any in-depth analysis complete just yet (I mean, come on, I just got shipped yesterday), I do have a complete listing of every Halo player who is being drafted (or maybe should be drafted) available on the archive site along with some quick analysis regarding where they're being taken, if that's too high/low, and just how each of them could help you bring home that silver thing with all the flags in your fantasy league this year (oh wait, I meant your banner/t-shirt). I'll update these at least weekly until April 16th (the last day eligible to draft on ESPN), changing the projections as necessary to give you the most complete breakdown on when, where, and why to take the Angels in your draft.
Juice Up the Battery
If we're gonna get this flight off the ground, we're gonna need a battery rundown (but not a rundown battery--yeah, corny). And that's just what we'll tackle next time. From the mound to behind the plate, the Angels certainly have at least a couple of guys who could help out huge this year. And even if they don't, well hey, it's still always fun talkin' baseball. Click the e-mail notification link at the top right part of the page if you wanna be kept in the halo. Until then, reporting for the Expos, er, Angels, this is Matt Allen--ESPN.
Following the same path Vladimir Guerrero took in free agency, I've crossed over from the NL East to the AL West in exchange for a bag of sunflower seeds, a bowl of ranch dip, and a correspondent to be named later. I would just like to say that I enjoyed my time with Montreal, but I'm pumped to be your source for all your Angels' fantasy fancies in 2004. My archive site is already up at http://angelsflb.blogspot.com, although most of what you'll find there at this point is a whole slew of Montreal Expos information disguised in a Halos' color scheme. But, my friends, that's all about to change from here on. The e-mail, angelsflb@insightbb.com, is all set up and ready for you to take advantage of as well. Any questions you have, feel free to shoot me a line.
Where to Begin?
It's less than a week until the first regular season game for MLB and we've gotta a lotta ground to cover. Despite my sporty new silver halo, I unfortunately don't have the supernatural ability to catch you completely up overnight. I will, however, over the course of the next few weeks (hopefully less) be giving you a piece-by-piece breakdown of the Halos. I'll work hard to get you up to speed with the rest of the league, and we'll hit our stride early enough in the season that it'll be like I was here from the first day of camp.
Remember that Silver Thing With All the Flags?
With a 77-85 finish in 2003, most folks outside the former Edison International, now Angel Stadium have forgotten about that hardware the Halos hoisted just two years ago. Is this team that far removed from the World Championship team of 2002? I think you'd be surprised. Obviously after adding Guerrero, Guillen, Escobar, and Colon the A's and Mariners certainly have good cause to look over their shoulders as see if that 19-game gap between the Angels and first place is going to shrink. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they definitely don't like what they see on the horizon.
Draft Quick Hits
While I don't have any in-depth analysis complete just yet (I mean, come on, I just got shipped yesterday), I do have a complete listing of every Halo player who is being drafted (or maybe should be drafted) available on the archive site along with some quick analysis regarding where they're being taken, if that's too high/low, and just how each of them could help you bring home that silver thing with all the flags in your fantasy league this year (oh wait, I meant your banner/t-shirt). I'll update these at least weekly until April 16th (the last day eligible to draft on ESPN), changing the projections as necessary to give you the most complete breakdown on when, where, and why to take the Angels in your draft.
Juice Up the Battery
If we're gonna get this flight off the ground, we're gonna need a battery rundown (but not a rundown battery--yeah, corny). And that's just what we'll tackle next time. From the mound to behind the plate, the Angels certainly have at least a couple of guys who could help out huge this year. And even if they don't, well hey, it's still always fun talkin' baseball. Click the e-mail notification link at the top right part of the page if you wanna be kept in the halo. Until then, reporting for the Expos, er, Angels, this is Matt Allen--ESPN.
Content Note
I've just recently been traded from the Montreal Expos beat to that of your Anaheim Angels. While most future content on this site will be focused strictly to that of the Halos, I have brought all my Montreal baggage along with me and want to note that all content as of and prior to 3.24.2004 is Expos related. Feel free to buff up on the 'Spos while I'm churning out the Angels previews over the next few weeks.
Draft Quick Hits, 3.25.2004
Vladimir Guerrero, OF: Currently going 1st round (4th overall, 2nd OF). YOU take him: This is going to sound like "nonsense from the new guy", but I wouldn't take him if I had the 4th pick. Beltran, Garciaparra, and Ramirez all seem like they would be better picks to me. That he's a first-rounder I'm not disputing, but a top 5? The back questions and the lack of SB (likely a permanent deal now) leave him just out of the top five. Are you going to be disappointed with him though? No way.
Garret Anderson, OF: Currently going round 5-7 (17th OF). YOU take him: That's about right. Garret is a solid 2nd OF for your team, and spending an early round pick like this isn't going to hurt you. His value has fallen recently a little, putting him more in line with where he should probably fall in the draft mix. He'll hit around .300 (but maybe not over) and he's a definite bet for 25 HR and with his last two years being his career best in SLG, you can probably bank on more than that this year.
Bartolo Colon, P: Currently going round 6-8 (15 SP). YOU take him: Again, that's about the right spot. Colon's certainly in the top 15 starters in MLB and he'd be a great ace for your staff. Pitching in always easier to come by than hitting, but to make an exception here to grab BC wouldn't be a bad move. He's not going to get shelled that often and his depth into games gives him a chance at more Ws (and Ls). Good K rate and his control's at his career best right now. His only weakness--1090 IP the last 5 years. That could really start to take its toll.
Troy Percival, P: Currently going round 7-9 (16 RP). YOU take him: TP's on the way out. Sure, he's had 8 straight years with 25 Svs, and he could do it again, but at 34, with a bad hip, and a K/9 that went from 10.9 in '02 to 8.8 in '03, you've gotta figure his fortune's gonna run out sometime. I'm not necessarily sayin' this is the year (his OBA was still .192 last year, his 3rd straight year under .200), but he's mighty close to crossing the line in the sand from solid closer to "iffy". Don’t take him in the top ten closers based on name recognition. Wait for double digits and snag him if he's still there.
Troy Glaus, 3B: Currently going round 7-9 (5th 3B). YOU take him: Most folks are still bidding on his .284/47/102 season in '00. The 47 HR is more of a reality (although still high) than the .284. Don't bet on Troy hitting over .270 and you won't be disappointed. Troy is not an elite 3B anymore (only Rolen, Lowell, and Chavez qualify there), and the only place he beats out guys like Blalock and Ramirez is in sheer power. He's steadily making more contact each year (his Ks have fallen 4 straight years--last year projected out to another decrease), but for now, I wouldn't expect a spike in AVG. Take 5th or take him 7th, it's entirely up to how much faith you have. I'd take him 7th at 3B.
Jose Guillen, OF: Currently going round late teens (52nd OF). YOU take him: Jose could go either way right now, and because of the uncertainty, I'd probably take him as a 5th/6th OF with an option to sub in case he goes back to his old stats. He's 27, so the time is now to lay the framework for what remains of his career. I'll tell you with confidence at this stage the .311 AVG of '03 is completely over his head. Guys who K 95 times and BB 24 don't hit .311 over the long haul. The power could be more legit (just like Glaus), but despite the buzz about Oakland, Angel Stadium is even less of a righty's HR park and he just hit 8 in OAK. Bet on almost 20 HR and probably .270 with AVG. There are safer bets.
Adam Kennedy, 2B: Currently going late teens (10th 2B). YOU take him: Assuming you took an elite level 2B earlier in the draft (please do), I'll say that Kennedy is just about the best candidate for your 2B/SS slot in baseball. Even if he's your main guy, you won't be completely disappointed. He gained a truckload of patience last year (going from 19 BB in '02 to 45 BB in '03 and dropping his K from 80 to 73) and if that sticks, his AVG could rise for real this time. The .312 in '02 was a mirage, so a jump this year to, say, .285 with the same patience as last year would be legit. He's got a little pop and a little speed (both legit). Don't get crazy, but Kennedy is a good pick in the 18-20 round range. Take him as early as 8th at 2B.
Darin Erstad, OF: Currently going at clean up time (68th OF). YOU take him: I really wouldn't. He's just got very little to add that you can't find elsewhere with a much greater upside. Yeah, he went .355/25/100 in '00, but if you asked a Magic 8-ball if that were going to happen again, you'd no doubt get something like "Not Very Likely" as your answer. Look elsewhere.
Jeff DaVanon, OF: Currently going at clean up time (75th OF). YOU take him: Come on, you didn't actually think I was going to suggest this, did you? He's got some speed, okay (and that's scarce), but I'm not sure if he'll get enough diamond time to flesh that out again this year. Four of the 12 dingers you may remember were at Hiram Bithorn Stadium against the 'Spos, and last time I checked, I could even knock one outta there. He isn't a sleeper, he's just Jeff.
Tim Salmon, OF: Currently going at clean up time (80th OF). YOU take him: Now this is an Angel that could actually give you some significant help with a last-round-or-two pick. The power's not what it once was, but his patience is at career-high levels and his SLG took a little spike in the 2nd half last year. He could certainly go .285/20/85 and with a last pick, that ain't bad at all. Funny how his line could look very similar to Guillen's who'll go probably at least five rounds earlier.
Francisco Rodriguez, P: Currently going at clean up time. YOU take him: Clearly he's got talent and will help air condition Angel Stadium throughout the summer, but he's still only 22 and there'll be speed bumps. He's had some pretty good fortune so far, and could certainly give you a cheap win here and there, but don't bank on a sub-3.50 ERA. If you've got the spot, he won't hurt you, but he won't get you many saves either as long as Percival's healthy. If Troy should go down though and he gets the nod to close, you'll be glad you had the insurance. All this is wonderful, but like most ESPN drafters, for now I wouldn't roster him.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Garret Anderson, OF: Currently going round 5-7 (17th OF). YOU take him: That's about right. Garret is a solid 2nd OF for your team, and spending an early round pick like this isn't going to hurt you. His value has fallen recently a little, putting him more in line with where he should probably fall in the draft mix. He'll hit around .300 (but maybe not over) and he's a definite bet for 25 HR and with his last two years being his career best in SLG, you can probably bank on more than that this year.
Bartolo Colon, P: Currently going round 6-8 (15 SP). YOU take him: Again, that's about the right spot. Colon's certainly in the top 15 starters in MLB and he'd be a great ace for your staff. Pitching in always easier to come by than hitting, but to make an exception here to grab BC wouldn't be a bad move. He's not going to get shelled that often and his depth into games gives him a chance at more Ws (and Ls). Good K rate and his control's at his career best right now. His only weakness--1090 IP the last 5 years. That could really start to take its toll.
Troy Percival, P: Currently going round 7-9 (16 RP). YOU take him: TP's on the way out. Sure, he's had 8 straight years with 25 Svs, and he could do it again, but at 34, with a bad hip, and a K/9 that went from 10.9 in '02 to 8.8 in '03, you've gotta figure his fortune's gonna run out sometime. I'm not necessarily sayin' this is the year (his OBA was still .192 last year, his 3rd straight year under .200), but he's mighty close to crossing the line in the sand from solid closer to "iffy". Don’t take him in the top ten closers based on name recognition. Wait for double digits and snag him if he's still there.
Troy Glaus, 3B: Currently going round 7-9 (5th 3B). YOU take him: Most folks are still bidding on his .284/47/102 season in '00. The 47 HR is more of a reality (although still high) than the .284. Don't bet on Troy hitting over .270 and you won't be disappointed. Troy is not an elite 3B anymore (only Rolen, Lowell, and Chavez qualify there), and the only place he beats out guys like Blalock and Ramirez is in sheer power. He's steadily making more contact each year (his Ks have fallen 4 straight years--last year projected out to another decrease), but for now, I wouldn't expect a spike in AVG. Take 5th or take him 7th, it's entirely up to how much faith you have. I'd take him 7th at 3B.
Jose Guillen, OF: Currently going round late teens (52nd OF). YOU take him: Jose could go either way right now, and because of the uncertainty, I'd probably take him as a 5th/6th OF with an option to sub in case he goes back to his old stats. He's 27, so the time is now to lay the framework for what remains of his career. I'll tell you with confidence at this stage the .311 AVG of '03 is completely over his head. Guys who K 95 times and BB 24 don't hit .311 over the long haul. The power could be more legit (just like Glaus), but despite the buzz about Oakland, Angel Stadium is even less of a righty's HR park and he just hit 8 in OAK. Bet on almost 20 HR and probably .270 with AVG. There are safer bets.
Adam Kennedy, 2B: Currently going late teens (10th 2B). YOU take him: Assuming you took an elite level 2B earlier in the draft (please do), I'll say that Kennedy is just about the best candidate for your 2B/SS slot in baseball. Even if he's your main guy, you won't be completely disappointed. He gained a truckload of patience last year (going from 19 BB in '02 to 45 BB in '03 and dropping his K from 80 to 73) and if that sticks, his AVG could rise for real this time. The .312 in '02 was a mirage, so a jump this year to, say, .285 with the same patience as last year would be legit. He's got a little pop and a little speed (both legit). Don't get crazy, but Kennedy is a good pick in the 18-20 round range. Take him as early as 8th at 2B.
Darin Erstad, OF: Currently going at clean up time (68th OF). YOU take him: I really wouldn't. He's just got very little to add that you can't find elsewhere with a much greater upside. Yeah, he went .355/25/100 in '00, but if you asked a Magic 8-ball if that were going to happen again, you'd no doubt get something like "Not Very Likely" as your answer. Look elsewhere.
Jeff DaVanon, OF: Currently going at clean up time (75th OF). YOU take him: Come on, you didn't actually think I was going to suggest this, did you? He's got some speed, okay (and that's scarce), but I'm not sure if he'll get enough diamond time to flesh that out again this year. Four of the 12 dingers you may remember were at Hiram Bithorn Stadium against the 'Spos, and last time I checked, I could even knock one outta there. He isn't a sleeper, he's just Jeff.
Tim Salmon, OF: Currently going at clean up time (80th OF). YOU take him: Now this is an Angel that could actually give you some significant help with a last-round-or-two pick. The power's not what it once was, but his patience is at career-high levels and his SLG took a little spike in the 2nd half last year. He could certainly go .285/20/85 and with a last pick, that ain't bad at all. Funny how his line could look very similar to Guillen's who'll go probably at least five rounds earlier.
Francisco Rodriguez, P: Currently going at clean up time. YOU take him: Clearly he's got talent and will help air condition Angel Stadium throughout the summer, but he's still only 22 and there'll be speed bumps. He's had some pretty good fortune so far, and could certainly give you a cheap win here and there, but don't bank on a sub-3.50 ERA. If you've got the spot, he won't hurt you, but he won't get you many saves either as long as Percival's healthy. If Troy should go down though and he gets the nod to close, you'll be glad you had the insurance. All this is wonderful, but like most ESPN drafters, for now I wouldn't roster him.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Wednesday, March 24, 2004
Armas Out/Good Spring
Armas is Back Out
Just when you thought it was safe to include Armas among your early season pick-up sleepers to wow your opponents with your foresight and panache, Tony is back on the shelf again. Seventeen pitches into his simulated game last Thursday, he experienced a mild right deltoid strain. The Expos have now declared that they have no intention of rushing him to be ready for Opening Day--which simply means he won't be ready. GM Omar Minaya said Armas could possibly be ready for action by mid-to-late April, two keys words in that sound bite being could and possibly. If you really want to stash TA in your IR spot, I wouldn't recommend against it, but in ESPN leagues where there's just one of said spots, I don't know if he's the one player in all of MLB to focus on for it.
Whose Arm to Replace Armas?
The Expos are looking at four contenders to replace Armas in the rotation until he returns (whenever that will be). The list (in random order) is Seung Song, Sun Woo Kim, Shawn Hill, and Jeff Farnsworth. Farnsworth was a non-roster invitee and it's showing (9 IP, 5 R, 3 HR, 6 BB, although with 10 K). Kim and Song are both having ridiculously awful springs (Song, 8.10 ERA in 10 IP w/4 HR and Kim a 7.71 ERA in 9 IP w/4 K & 7 BB). I think this could mask a potentially decent upside for Song at least. His combined stats last year at AA/AAA were a 3.07 ERA with 84 K and 57 BB over 146 IP). Not great (or really even very good), but certainly worth a stream or two if that's your cup of tea. I'd forget Kim for now (and maybe for good). His MLB totals look like this: 5.66 ERA, 61 K, 43 BB).
In a word--oy. He's only given up 6 HR in those 105 innings but singles and walks hurt just as bad and he's not even that extreme a ground ball pitcher, so it's most likely an anomaly considering his other numbers. There is one bright spot for both of them. They combined on a 6 hit shutout of the Orioles today, Kim taking a no-hitter into the 5th, for whatever that's worth (not much). Hill's my current favorite for the job--but not because of his skills. Here is his response on the opportunity to replace Armas: "It might open up a window for me, but I'm not expecting to be there." What confidence. Who wouldn't want a guy like that in the rotation? Give it to Hill, Frank. He's definitely got his head on straight.
Watermelon, Watermelon, Watermelon Rind
Don't look now (really, don't look), but the 'Spos are 14-6 this spring, to date the best record of any team in the NL East and in the entire Grapefruit League. The burning question (not really, I've actually had a grand total of zero e-mails on this): Does it mean anything? That'd be no. The Expos finished with the best NL East spring record last year (2nd in Grapefruit) only to finish 4th. What it does mean is that they have a lot of players who are fighting for their 25-man-roster lives. Proof? Some spring AVG updates: Cepicky-.478. Bergeron-.447. Sledge-.417. Calloway-.350. Robinson says he's got an idea who the regular LF will be. He won't tell, of course, but I'm gonna try and read his mind. (heavy mental strain) The answer came back Termel Sledge. We'll see if I'm right.
And Then There Were 42
The 'Spos ended the dreams of nine players this past weekend, none of any fantasy notoriety except for maybe Pat Mahomes (okay, he doesn't have any fantasy value either, although in 1994 he went 9-5 in 21 starts for Minnesota). Mahomes was reassigned to minor league camp, where he'll most likely start the season with the AAA Edmonton Trappers. According to the team website, when asked about his demotion, he replied, "Evidently, they want to see results in Spring Training." Apparently no one told Pat that training camp isn't just about exchanging recipes with the other roster hopefuls (although I bet he'd bake a good lemon meringue pie as sour as he sounds). Robinson said that Mahomes could still make the big league team, so keep on bakin', Pat.
Closer Watch
Why I'm doing this is beyond me, but I would like to point out again an option for Frank and Omar to use at closer should Biddle find trouble early in the year. Jeremy Fikac continues to pitch well this spring (9 IP, 11 K, 5 H, 3 ER). As I said last week, not overpowering, but all those runs and all but one of those hits came in a one-inning faux pas earlier in Spring Training. Otherwise, 8 IP, 11 K, 1 H. Don’t forget that his career OBA is lower than both Biddle's and Ayala's and his K/9 is also (Fikac 7.6, Biddle 6.3, Ayala 5.8). I know Cordero's the popular "young gun" pick, but Fikac's got 100 IP of experience on him as well. Robinson says Biddle's earned the chance to begin as closer--and I agree--but I'd have Fikac waiting at the gate of the bullpen just in case.
Waiting Patiently (Somewhat) for the Regular Season
I can't wait for the season to begin. We finally won't have to hear any more players say, "This is the best shape I've been in in years." If that were true, then MLB wouldn't have paid out over $283 million dollars to players on the disabled list in 2002 and had their "employees" miss collectively over 24, 000 days, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Now these figures are down, but nobody's fooling anyone with all those "I’m in great shape" platitudes. But until they stop, I figure that I can say, reporting for the Expos as the season draws near--and in the best shape I've been in in years--this is Matt Allen--ESPN.
Archive site: http://exposflb.blogspot.com
Just when you thought it was safe to include Armas among your early season pick-up sleepers to wow your opponents with your foresight and panache, Tony is back on the shelf again. Seventeen pitches into his simulated game last Thursday, he experienced a mild right deltoid strain. The Expos have now declared that they have no intention of rushing him to be ready for Opening Day--which simply means he won't be ready. GM Omar Minaya said Armas could possibly be ready for action by mid-to-late April, two keys words in that sound bite being could and possibly. If you really want to stash TA in your IR spot, I wouldn't recommend against it, but in ESPN leagues where there's just one of said spots, I don't know if he's the one player in all of MLB to focus on for it.
Whose Arm to Replace Armas?
The Expos are looking at four contenders to replace Armas in the rotation until he returns (whenever that will be). The list (in random order) is Seung Song, Sun Woo Kim, Shawn Hill, and Jeff Farnsworth. Farnsworth was a non-roster invitee and it's showing (9 IP, 5 R, 3 HR, 6 BB, although with 10 K). Kim and Song are both having ridiculously awful springs (Song, 8.10 ERA in 10 IP w/4 HR and Kim a 7.71 ERA in 9 IP w/4 K & 7 BB). I think this could mask a potentially decent upside for Song at least. His combined stats last year at AA/AAA were a 3.07 ERA with 84 K and 57 BB over 146 IP). Not great (or really even very good), but certainly worth a stream or two if that's your cup of tea. I'd forget Kim for now (and maybe for good). His MLB totals look like this: 5.66 ERA, 61 K, 43 BB).
In a word--oy. He's only given up 6 HR in those 105 innings but singles and walks hurt just as bad and he's not even that extreme a ground ball pitcher, so it's most likely an anomaly considering his other numbers. There is one bright spot for both of them. They combined on a 6 hit shutout of the Orioles today, Kim taking a no-hitter into the 5th, for whatever that's worth (not much). Hill's my current favorite for the job--but not because of his skills. Here is his response on the opportunity to replace Armas: "It might open up a window for me, but I'm not expecting to be there." What confidence. Who wouldn't want a guy like that in the rotation? Give it to Hill, Frank. He's definitely got his head on straight.
Watermelon, Watermelon, Watermelon Rind
Don't look now (really, don't look), but the 'Spos are 14-6 this spring, to date the best record of any team in the NL East and in the entire Grapefruit League. The burning question (not really, I've actually had a grand total of zero e-mails on this): Does it mean anything? That'd be no. The Expos finished with the best NL East spring record last year (2nd in Grapefruit) only to finish 4th. What it does mean is that they have a lot of players who are fighting for their 25-man-roster lives. Proof? Some spring AVG updates: Cepicky-.478. Bergeron-.447. Sledge-.417. Calloway-.350. Robinson says he's got an idea who the regular LF will be. He won't tell, of course, but I'm gonna try and read his mind. (heavy mental strain) The answer came back Termel Sledge. We'll see if I'm right.
And Then There Were 42
The 'Spos ended the dreams of nine players this past weekend, none of any fantasy notoriety except for maybe Pat Mahomes (okay, he doesn't have any fantasy value either, although in 1994 he went 9-5 in 21 starts for Minnesota). Mahomes was reassigned to minor league camp, where he'll most likely start the season with the AAA Edmonton Trappers. According to the team website, when asked about his demotion, he replied, "Evidently, they want to see results in Spring Training." Apparently no one told Pat that training camp isn't just about exchanging recipes with the other roster hopefuls (although I bet he'd bake a good lemon meringue pie as sour as he sounds). Robinson said that Mahomes could still make the big league team, so keep on bakin', Pat.
Closer Watch
Why I'm doing this is beyond me, but I would like to point out again an option for Frank and Omar to use at closer should Biddle find trouble early in the year. Jeremy Fikac continues to pitch well this spring (9 IP, 11 K, 5 H, 3 ER). As I said last week, not overpowering, but all those runs and all but one of those hits came in a one-inning faux pas earlier in Spring Training. Otherwise, 8 IP, 11 K, 1 H. Don’t forget that his career OBA is lower than both Biddle's and Ayala's and his K/9 is also (Fikac 7.6, Biddle 6.3, Ayala 5.8). I know Cordero's the popular "young gun" pick, but Fikac's got 100 IP of experience on him as well. Robinson says Biddle's earned the chance to begin as closer--and I agree--but I'd have Fikac waiting at the gate of the bullpen just in case.
Waiting Patiently (Somewhat) for the Regular Season
I can't wait for the season to begin. We finally won't have to hear any more players say, "This is the best shape I've been in in years." If that were true, then MLB wouldn't have paid out over $283 million dollars to players on the disabled list in 2002 and had their "employees" miss collectively over 24, 000 days, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Now these figures are down, but nobody's fooling anyone with all those "I’m in great shape" platitudes. But until they stop, I figure that I can say, reporting for the Expos as the season draws near--and in the best shape I've been in in years--this is Matt Allen--ESPN.
Archive site: http://exposflb.blogspot.com
Draft Quick Hits, 3.24.2004
Orlando Cabrera, SS: Currently going 6-8 round (8th SS). YOU take him: As early as 3rd SS, no later than 5th SS. The SS are goin’ early this year (10 in first 80, top 5 in first 30). I’d take him no later than 5th, ahead of Matsui, Furcal, and even Jeter. He’s gonna run (only Renteria will run more). Get your power and then snag O.
Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 4th 2B, maybe even 3rd (after Soriano and Boone). Between Kent, Giles, and Vidro, Kent will give you more power but less AVG. Giles will have a (maybe)little more power and lot more speed, but probably significantly less AVG. Therefore, it depends on what you need at 2B. Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from round13-19 (15th 1B). YOU take him: Closer to 13, although it might be safe to let him fall a couple. He’s still dropping slightly on the draft charts, which makes absolutely no sense. His upside is huge and if he’s hitting 5th and that could be huge also. AVG, R, solid HR, and maybe big RBIs. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did. But right now, he is healthy (.348 AVG, .478 SLG this spring), and if he stays that way, I can see him possibly posting numbers better than Klesko, Nevin, and even Frank Thomas, who are all being drafted ahead of him.
Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: mid to late teens. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: his right handed hitting (he’s a switch hitter for the uneducated). Trust me. He didn't perform from the right side in '01 and '02 (.197 and .220 respectively), but last year he rebounded for a respectable .254. Above .280 AVG this year from the right side and watch out. Power wise, three year trend in rising G/F ratio means power is definitely available. However, OF is really deep I've found better options usually available until the 16th round or so are available.
Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 20 of the other closers in MLB. He's actually pitched pretty well this spring, though (4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 5 K, 2 BB), and claims that with a little help, he could be able to close over the long haul. However—FRAGILE: Handle With Care.
Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (64th P, 40th SP). YOU take him: early to mid teens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. Others are catching on--he's moved up 3 picks on average this past week alone. He's still going 40th among SP while he’s around 20th in terms of talent. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. In my first draft, I got him in the 19th round. Next draft--22nd round. Those are ridiculous steals. My third draft I took him in the 12th for safe measure. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.30, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see. It may look like I'm putting a lot of my eggs (upcoming Easter reference) in one basket with Livan, but I like my basket.
Chad Cordero, P: Currently going at clean up time (81st P, 32nd RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. Please. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Before long (see my current article), he could be behind Jeremy Fikac. Yet, for some reason, he's still being taken ahead of Jose Mesa and David Riske--who actually are confirmed closers. Cordero doesn't even have the job. He's not even close in the short term. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.
Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is could wane hitting leadoff. If he gets his wish, and Sledge or even Bergeron leadoff, then 20 isn't far-fetched. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). It's looking more and more like he may not have to hit leadoff, so I'd say it's definitely worth the risk.
Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.
Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. So far they're strong (.417 AVG, .500 SLG). If they stay solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 4th 2B, maybe even 3rd (after Soriano and Boone). Between Kent, Giles, and Vidro, Kent will give you more power but less AVG. Giles will have a (maybe)little more power and lot more speed, but probably significantly less AVG. Therefore, it depends on what you need at 2B. Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from round13-19 (15th 1B). YOU take him: Closer to 13, although it might be safe to let him fall a couple. He’s still dropping slightly on the draft charts, which makes absolutely no sense. His upside is huge and if he’s hitting 5th and that could be huge also. AVG, R, solid HR, and maybe big RBIs. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did. But right now, he is healthy (.348 AVG, .478 SLG this spring), and if he stays that way, I can see him possibly posting numbers better than Klesko, Nevin, and even Frank Thomas, who are all being drafted ahead of him.
Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: mid to late teens. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: his right handed hitting (he’s a switch hitter for the uneducated). Trust me. He didn't perform from the right side in '01 and '02 (.197 and .220 respectively), but last year he rebounded for a respectable .254. Above .280 AVG this year from the right side and watch out. Power wise, three year trend in rising G/F ratio means power is definitely available. However, OF is really deep I've found better options usually available until the 16th round or so are available.
Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 20 of the other closers in MLB. He's actually pitched pretty well this spring, though (4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 5 K, 2 BB), and claims that with a little help, he could be able to close over the long haul. However—FRAGILE: Handle With Care.
Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (64th P, 40th SP). YOU take him: early to mid teens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. Others are catching on--he's moved up 3 picks on average this past week alone. He's still going 40th among SP while he’s around 20th in terms of talent. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. In my first draft, I got him in the 19th round. Next draft--22nd round. Those are ridiculous steals. My third draft I took him in the 12th for safe measure. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.30, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see. It may look like I'm putting a lot of my eggs (upcoming Easter reference) in one basket with Livan, but I like my basket.
Chad Cordero, P: Currently going at clean up time (81st P, 32nd RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. Please. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Before long (see my current article), he could be behind Jeremy Fikac. Yet, for some reason, he's still being taken ahead of Jose Mesa and David Riske--who actually are confirmed closers. Cordero doesn't even have the job. He's not even close in the short term. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.
Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is could wane hitting leadoff. If he gets his wish, and Sledge or even Bergeron leadoff, then 20 isn't far-fetched. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). It's looking more and more like he may not have to hit leadoff, so I'd say it's definitely worth the risk.
Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.
Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. So far they're strong (.417 AVG, .500 SLG). If they stay solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Wednesday, March 17, 2004
Armas Cleared, LF Situation, Livan
First Spring Cuts
Tonight's game against the Mets marks the midway point of Spring Training for the Expos (or the "first phase", as Robinson recently referred to it) and the first cuts have been made. I have optioned the old archive site to the trash can (lack of performance) and named the new HQ site (http://exposflb.blogspot.com) the Opening Day starter barring injury. You can go there now for the updated Draft Quick Hits. The only move the big league team has made is to assign catcher Brad Cresse to Arizona, whom they acquired from them last year for a player to be named later. The deal was he had to make the Opening Day roster for it to go through. So much for that. Frank has said that there will, however, be some cuts by the end of the week. I'll keep you posted.
Armas is cleared for takeoff
He only started 3 games last year, teasing us with great numbers. This spring, he's been battling bicep pain, but as of Monday, Tony Armas has been cleared for game action. He completed a three-inning simulated game and threw all his pitches. All looked good except the slider, said pitching coach Randy St. Claire. This could be attributed to his lack of throwing it in his first few sessions, laying off it due to the concern over his bicep. He is scheduled to start March 23rd in one of the split squad games and gather two more starts before Opening Day. The 'Spos are quickly running out of games to do that with the proper rest between starts, but all indications are that he'll be ready. Draft him? Not at this point. He'll be there later, so there's no reason to jump the gun yet.
PB, J, & a Sledgehammer
Despite how it sounds, this is not a Gallagher comedy bit. It's the three front-runners to be the Supreme Head for the Montreal six-headed monster in LF. PB would Peter Bergeron, who is playing for his major league life, out of options and set for waivers if he doesn't make the team. Frank has said previously that he only makes it if he's the starter. No pressure there. Despite PB hitting a mind-numbing .464 so far this spring (13-28), Robinson is not conceding he'll even make the team yet. "He could go 0-for-the next 20 games. Then what will we say?" How about bye-bye? Will PB keep goin' nutty or will he be outta the lineup in a jif (sorry)? I vote the latter. His past numbers aren't creamy (career .226 AVG, .305 OBP in 1000+ ABs).
Not what the Expos need in the leadoff spot, which is most likely where he'd hit in a perfect world. As for the J, Juan Rivera is definitely "jammed" up (sorry again) this spring, going 3 for 16 (.188). It's looking like he could start the season as #4 in the OF. As for the Hammer, Termel Sledge is living up to the hype thus far (7-17, .412). Now, that's only four hits difference when you compare him to Rivera, so don't weigh all this too heavily yet. So what's happenin' with Chavez, Calloway, and Vaspucci? Calloway's 6 for 17 and Vaspucci's 5 for 15, so neither of them are eliminating themselves from contention. As for Endy Chavez? That'd be 2 for 22 (.091). Frank said he could get hot any day now, but for Endy's sake, it'd better be yesterday or he's in trouble.
For Your Consideration
Now, Frank and GM Omar Minaya haven't exactly asked me for insight on the closer issue yet (something tells me I'd better not hold my breath), but I'd like to throw another name into the mix. I mentioned in my last column about Biddle and his downside. Ayala and Cordero each have their own question marks, so while the Expos have all these potential closers with issues, what's one more? I offer up Jeremy Fikac. He's relatively young and can strike guys out (7.6 K per 9 in 111 MLB IP). He has a tendency to give up the long ball--which won't help in Olympic/Bithorn--but his career OBA is lower than both Biddle and Ayala. His spring line is 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 9 K, 2 BB. However--all 4 hits and 3 runs came in one outing. Take that away--6 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 0 hits. Somethin' to think about.
The Underestimation of Livan Hernandez
No, this isn't an independent foreign film. I've had 2 drafts now, and I've got him in the 19th and the 22nd round. This is unbelievable to me. He's currently going anywhere from rounds 15-22. If you've read the Quick Hits, you know I'm big on him. This is a guy who had a 2.42 ERA after the break last year. He's durable (he's pitched 200 innings or more 5 of the last 6 years), he doesn't throw a lot of meat, and his BBs have gone down while his Ks have gone up. On a team with a better bullpen, I'd be repeating "20 wins" over and over again. On the 'Spos, 15 is definitely safe and I really think there'll be more. If he avoids burnout (and his stats say that's not as much of a risk as it once was), I have stolen a great starting pitcher in both of my drafts.
Odds and Ends
One spring stat that I find positive and worth being excited about is Brad Wilkerson's 3 K's in 17 ABs. BW whiffed in a ridiculous 31% of his ABs last year and 32% in 2002. So while it's only 17 ABs, and the bad news is he only has 2 hits so far (.118), at least he's putting it in play. That's something to build on for him. Also, I've maligned Tony Batista's hitting skills all over the place so far this spring. But the man's got chicken pox, and at his age, that's no picnic. Get well soon, TB. Finally, according to the team website, Rocky Biddle's wife is pregnant. The name plan? A boy=Rocky. A girl=Charlie. Here's hoping that Rocky spends this season not only improving his pitching but reading one of those baby naming books. Reporting for the Expos, this is Matt Allen--ESPN.
Tonight's game against the Mets marks the midway point of Spring Training for the Expos (or the "first phase", as Robinson recently referred to it) and the first cuts have been made. I have optioned the old archive site to the trash can (lack of performance) and named the new HQ site (http://exposflb.blogspot.com) the Opening Day starter barring injury. You can go there now for the updated Draft Quick Hits. The only move the big league team has made is to assign catcher Brad Cresse to Arizona, whom they acquired from them last year for a player to be named later. The deal was he had to make the Opening Day roster for it to go through. So much for that. Frank has said that there will, however, be some cuts by the end of the week. I'll keep you posted.
Armas is cleared for takeoff
He only started 3 games last year, teasing us with great numbers. This spring, he's been battling bicep pain, but as of Monday, Tony Armas has been cleared for game action. He completed a three-inning simulated game and threw all his pitches. All looked good except the slider, said pitching coach Randy St. Claire. This could be attributed to his lack of throwing it in his first few sessions, laying off it due to the concern over his bicep. He is scheduled to start March 23rd in one of the split squad games and gather two more starts before Opening Day. The 'Spos are quickly running out of games to do that with the proper rest between starts, but all indications are that he'll be ready. Draft him? Not at this point. He'll be there later, so there's no reason to jump the gun yet.
PB, J, & a Sledgehammer
Despite how it sounds, this is not a Gallagher comedy bit. It's the three front-runners to be the Supreme Head for the Montreal six-headed monster in LF. PB would Peter Bergeron, who is playing for his major league life, out of options and set for waivers if he doesn't make the team. Frank has said previously that he only makes it if he's the starter. No pressure there. Despite PB hitting a mind-numbing .464 so far this spring (13-28), Robinson is not conceding he'll even make the team yet. "He could go 0-for-the next 20 games. Then what will we say?" How about bye-bye? Will PB keep goin' nutty or will he be outta the lineup in a jif (sorry)? I vote the latter. His past numbers aren't creamy (career .226 AVG, .305 OBP in 1000+ ABs).
Not what the Expos need in the leadoff spot, which is most likely where he'd hit in a perfect world. As for the J, Juan Rivera is definitely "jammed" up (sorry again) this spring, going 3 for 16 (.188). It's looking like he could start the season as #4 in the OF. As for the Hammer, Termel Sledge is living up to the hype thus far (7-17, .412). Now, that's only four hits difference when you compare him to Rivera, so don't weigh all this too heavily yet. So what's happenin' with Chavez, Calloway, and Vaspucci? Calloway's 6 for 17 and Vaspucci's 5 for 15, so neither of them are eliminating themselves from contention. As for Endy Chavez? That'd be 2 for 22 (.091). Frank said he could get hot any day now, but for Endy's sake, it'd better be yesterday or he's in trouble.
For Your Consideration
Now, Frank and GM Omar Minaya haven't exactly asked me for insight on the closer issue yet (something tells me I'd better not hold my breath), but I'd like to throw another name into the mix. I mentioned in my last column about Biddle and his downside. Ayala and Cordero each have their own question marks, so while the Expos have all these potential closers with issues, what's one more? I offer up Jeremy Fikac. He's relatively young and can strike guys out (7.6 K per 9 in 111 MLB IP). He has a tendency to give up the long ball--which won't help in Olympic/Bithorn--but his career OBA is lower than both Biddle and Ayala. His spring line is 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 9 K, 2 BB. However--all 4 hits and 3 runs came in one outing. Take that away--6 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 0 hits. Somethin' to think about.
The Underestimation of Livan Hernandez
No, this isn't an independent foreign film. I've had 2 drafts now, and I've got him in the 19th and the 22nd round. This is unbelievable to me. He's currently going anywhere from rounds 15-22. If you've read the Quick Hits, you know I'm big on him. This is a guy who had a 2.42 ERA after the break last year. He's durable (he's pitched 200 innings or more 5 of the last 6 years), he doesn't throw a lot of meat, and his BBs have gone down while his Ks have gone up. On a team with a better bullpen, I'd be repeating "20 wins" over and over again. On the 'Spos, 15 is definitely safe and I really think there'll be more. If he avoids burnout (and his stats say that's not as much of a risk as it once was), I have stolen a great starting pitcher in both of my drafts.
Odds and Ends
One spring stat that I find positive and worth being excited about is Brad Wilkerson's 3 K's in 17 ABs. BW whiffed in a ridiculous 31% of his ABs last year and 32% in 2002. So while it's only 17 ABs, and the bad news is he only has 2 hits so far (.118), at least he's putting it in play. That's something to build on for him. Also, I've maligned Tony Batista's hitting skills all over the place so far this spring. But the man's got chicken pox, and at his age, that's no picnic. Get well soon, TB. Finally, according to the team website, Rocky Biddle's wife is pregnant. The name plan? A boy=Rocky. A girl=Charlie. Here's hoping that Rocky spends this season not only improving his pitching but reading one of those baby naming books. Reporting for the Expos, this is Matt Allen--ESPN.
Draft Quick Hits, 3.17.2004
Orlando Cabrera, SS: Currently going 6-8 round (8th SS). YOU take him: As early as 3rd SS, no later than 5th SS. The SS are goin’ early this year (10 in first 80, top 5 in first 30). I’d take him no later than 5th, ahead of Matsui, Furcal, and even Jeter. He’s gonna run (only Renteria will run more). Get your power and then snag O.
Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going round 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 4th 2B, maybe even 3rd (after Soriano and Boone). Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from round 13-19 (15th 1B). YOU take him: Closer to 13, although it might be safe to let him fall a couple. He’s still dropping slightly on the draft charts, which makes absolutely no sense. His upside is huge and if he’s hitting 5th and that could be huge also. AVG, R, solid HR, and maybe big RBIs. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did. But right now, he is healthy, hitting .421 this spring and slugging .579. If he stays healthy, hop on and enjoy the stats.
Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: 15th round or so. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: his right handed hitting (he’s a switch hitter for the uneducated). Trust me. He didn't perform from the right side in '01 and '02 (.197 and .220 respectively), but last year he rebounded for a respectable .254. So did the rest of his stats. Above .280 AVG this year from the right side and watch out. Power wise, three year trend in rising G/F ratio means power is definitely available.
Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 20 of the other closers in MLB. His back also makes him a health risk. He's claiming he may have to change his mechanics now to help it heal. That's not something you want to hear three weeks from Opening Day. In other words—FRAGILE: Handle With Care.
Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (64th P, 39th SP). YOU take him: early to mid tens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. Others are catching on. He’s way too good to be going 39th among the starters. But even that's up, so his value is catching on. At worst, he’s around 20th in terms of talent. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. In my first draft, I got him in the 19th round. Next draft--22nd round. Those are ridiculous steals. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.30, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see.
Chad Cordero, P: Currently going at clean up time (81st P, 32nd RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Before long (see my current article), he could be behind Jeremy Fikac. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.
Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is could wane hitting leadoff. If he gets his wish to hit later in the order, and Sledge or even Bergeron hits leadoff, then 20 isn't far-fetched. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). He’s gonna hit leadoff most likely, but that only means more runs if he quits striking out. Worth the risk, though.
Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.
Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. So far they're strong (.412 AVG). If they stay solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going round 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 4th 2B, maybe even 3rd (after Soriano and Boone). Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from round 13-19 (15th 1B). YOU take him: Closer to 13, although it might be safe to let him fall a couple. He’s still dropping slightly on the draft charts, which makes absolutely no sense. His upside is huge and if he’s hitting 5th and that could be huge also. AVG, R, solid HR, and maybe big RBIs. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did. But right now, he is healthy, hitting .421 this spring and slugging .579. If he stays healthy, hop on and enjoy the stats.
Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: 15th round or so. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: his right handed hitting (he’s a switch hitter for the uneducated). Trust me. He didn't perform from the right side in '01 and '02 (.197 and .220 respectively), but last year he rebounded for a respectable .254. So did the rest of his stats. Above .280 AVG this year from the right side and watch out. Power wise, three year trend in rising G/F ratio means power is definitely available.
Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 20 of the other closers in MLB. His back also makes him a health risk. He's claiming he may have to change his mechanics now to help it heal. That's not something you want to hear three weeks from Opening Day. In other words—FRAGILE: Handle With Care.
Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (64th P, 39th SP). YOU take him: early to mid tens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. Others are catching on. He’s way too good to be going 39th among the starters. But even that's up, so his value is catching on. At worst, he’s around 20th in terms of talent. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. In my first draft, I got him in the 19th round. Next draft--22nd round. Those are ridiculous steals. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.30, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see.
Chad Cordero, P: Currently going at clean up time (81st P, 32nd RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Before long (see my current article), he could be behind Jeremy Fikac. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.
Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is could wane hitting leadoff. If he gets his wish to hit later in the order, and Sledge or even Bergeron hits leadoff, then 20 isn't far-fetched. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). He’s gonna hit leadoff most likely, but that only means more runs if he quits striking out. Worth the risk, though.
Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.
Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. So far they're strong (.412 AVG). If they stay solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Camp Chatter/Lineup Preview/Correspondent Draft
Hey, let’s discuss absolutely meaningless statstics! Yes, that’s right, it’s the early Spring Training stats. One of the heads to our six-headed LF monster, Peter Bergeron, is hitting .467 and slugging .600 so far. Does it mean anything…come on, I gave you the answer! Fifteen ABs doesn’t ever mean anything unless it’s the playoffs. Termel Sledge is off to a good start also, but again—nine ABs. Don’t count your chickens. Or doubles either for that matter. So what can we gather from our spring stats so far? Brad Wilkerson’s 0 for 10. From that we can tell that he shouldn’t be complaining quite yet in The Globe and Mail about the value of his contract extension. Your leadoff AVG of .000 isn’t too valuable to anyone, BW. Get a hit first. Until then, we might as well put John Fogerty in Centerfield. Put him in, Coach.
Speaking of Coach, in other “spoke before I thought” news, Frank Robinson said last week in The Globe and Mail that taking steroids was just “taking advantage, which is different from cheating.” He compared it to stealing signs from the catcher. Yeah, Frank. If a student gets caught using an ear transmitter during a final exam, he’s not cheating, right? He’s taking advantage of being able to hear someone outside the classroom read off the answer key to him. Why else have ears? If you’re not gonna use an unnatural device to get an advantage over everyone else who takes the test, what’s the point in hearing anyway? Clearly that can’t be cheating, just taking advantage of the resources available to you. Good call, Frank.
Finally, some chatter that didn’t make my ears burn is that of the recent Armas development. He threw 50 pitches on Saturday on 65 more on Tuesday. And he threw all his pitches—including the slider. So far, no more bicep trouble. He’s got another session tomorrow and is tentatively scheduled to pitch on the 18th, according to the team website. The sun is peeking through the clouds here but keep your umbrella for a little longer just in case.
Bid low on Biddle
I’ve been adamant that Biddle is the closer in Montreal and Frank Robinson confirmed that for me a while back. But I’ve been poring over the numbers and I’ve decided that Biddle’s the girl who got a prom date because the only other options were even less attractive and less popular than her. Sure, that freshman girl looks promising, but is she really prom material? Stupid analogies aside, no one really looks good to close for the Expos. Biddle—and almost everyone will agree on this—looks like an accident waiting to happen, Ayala can’t get lefties out (.337 OBA), and Cordero just walked in the door (11 MLB IP). Who’s the best guy right now? Well, combined they’ve got 6 IP, 6 K, 1 BB, and only 1 hit (a Cordero HR) between them, but I’m still gonna say Biddle. But bid little.
The Lineup
What is set is the middle (and most likely) the top of the order. Wilkerson, Cabrera, Vidro, Everett, Johnson, Batista seem to make up 1-6. Schneider will probably hit 8th, leaving 7th for the six-headed LF monster winner. Despite Bergeron’s hot start, I’ll say now that I think it will be Sledge. He seems like he might just be ready. Although some alternatives are being looked into, this eight seems the most probable for right now. If Bergeron hits .467 for two more weeks, then maybe some tweaks will have to be made. If you have any questions, the e-mail is exposflb@insightbb.com.
Barry Bonds for Nick Johnson?
Remember to check out the archive site (http://exposflb.blog-city.com) for the updated Draft Quick Hits. I must really value my own opinion because I took 5 Expos (Vidro, Cabrera, Everett, Hernandez, and yes, Biddle) in the Correspondents draft last week. Matt Welker of the Giants took the same amount off his team, tying me for the most. But I drafted Barry (sorry, SF OF) and he got Johnson. Should we swap them straight up? Yeah right. If you wanna be among the first to know when the new column is up, be sure to click the e-mail notification link at the top right of the page. It’s now less than 26 days until the ‘Spos opener against the Marlins. But for me, it’s back to the video diamond. I’ve got a pennant race to win. Reporting for the Expos, I’m Matt Allen—ESPN.
Speaking of Coach, in other “spoke before I thought” news, Frank Robinson said last week in The Globe and Mail that taking steroids was just “taking advantage, which is different from cheating.” He compared it to stealing signs from the catcher. Yeah, Frank. If a student gets caught using an ear transmitter during a final exam, he’s not cheating, right? He’s taking advantage of being able to hear someone outside the classroom read off the answer key to him. Why else have ears? If you’re not gonna use an unnatural device to get an advantage over everyone else who takes the test, what’s the point in hearing anyway? Clearly that can’t be cheating, just taking advantage of the resources available to you. Good call, Frank.
Finally, some chatter that didn’t make my ears burn is that of the recent Armas development. He threw 50 pitches on Saturday on 65 more on Tuesday. And he threw all his pitches—including the slider. So far, no more bicep trouble. He’s got another session tomorrow and is tentatively scheduled to pitch on the 18th, according to the team website. The sun is peeking through the clouds here but keep your umbrella for a little longer just in case.
Bid low on Biddle
I’ve been adamant that Biddle is the closer in Montreal and Frank Robinson confirmed that for me a while back. But I’ve been poring over the numbers and I’ve decided that Biddle’s the girl who got a prom date because the only other options were even less attractive and less popular than her. Sure, that freshman girl looks promising, but is she really prom material? Stupid analogies aside, no one really looks good to close for the Expos. Biddle—and almost everyone will agree on this—looks like an accident waiting to happen, Ayala can’t get lefties out (.337 OBA), and Cordero just walked in the door (11 MLB IP). Who’s the best guy right now? Well, combined they’ve got 6 IP, 6 K, 1 BB, and only 1 hit (a Cordero HR) between them, but I’m still gonna say Biddle. But bid little.
The Lineup
What is set is the middle (and most likely) the top of the order. Wilkerson, Cabrera, Vidro, Everett, Johnson, Batista seem to make up 1-6. Schneider will probably hit 8th, leaving 7th for the six-headed LF monster winner. Despite Bergeron’s hot start, I’ll say now that I think it will be Sledge. He seems like he might just be ready. Although some alternatives are being looked into, this eight seems the most probable for right now. If Bergeron hits .467 for two more weeks, then maybe some tweaks will have to be made. If you have any questions, the e-mail is exposflb@insightbb.com.
Barry Bonds for Nick Johnson?
Remember to check out the archive site (http://exposflb.blog-city.com) for the updated Draft Quick Hits. I must really value my own opinion because I took 5 Expos (Vidro, Cabrera, Everett, Hernandez, and yes, Biddle) in the Correspondents draft last week. Matt Welker of the Giants took the same amount off his team, tying me for the most. But I drafted Barry (sorry, SF OF) and he got Johnson. Should we swap them straight up? Yeah right. If you wanna be among the first to know when the new column is up, be sure to click the e-mail notification link at the top right of the page. It’s now less than 26 days until the ‘Spos opener against the Marlins. But for me, it’s back to the video diamond. I’ve got a pennant race to win. Reporting for the Expos, I’m Matt Allen—ESPN.
Thursday, March 11, 2004
Draft Quick Hits, 3.11.2004
Orlando Cabrera, SS: Currently going 6-8 round (8th SS). YOU take him: As early as 3rd SS, no later than 5th SS. The SS are goin’ early this year (10 in first 80, top 5 in first 30). I’d take him no later than 5th, ahead of Matsui, Furcal, and even Jeter. He’s gonna run more (only Renteria will run more).
Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 4th 2B, maybe even 3rd. 2B isn’t deep this year (is it ever?), and Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from 13-19 round (15th 1B). YOU take him: Closer to 13, although it might be safe to let him fall a couple. He’s being drafted almost a full round later than last week. His upside is huge and if he’s hitting 5th and that could be huge. AVG, R, and maybe big RBIs. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did.
Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: 15th round or so. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: his right handed hitting (he’s a switch hitter for the uneducated). Trust me. Above .280 AVG this year from the right side and watch out.
Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (66th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 20 of the other closers in MLB. His back also makes him a health risk. In other words—FRAGILE: Handle With Care.
Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (65th P, 40th SP). YOU take him: early to mid teens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. Others are catching on. He’s way too good to be going 40th among the starters. At worst, he’s around 20th in terms of talent. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. In my first draft, I got him in the 19th round. That’s a ridiculous steal. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.25, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see.
Chad Cordero, P: Currently going early twenties (80th P, 32nd RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.
Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is could wane hitting leadoff. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). He’s gonna hit leadoff most likely, but that only means more runs if he quits striking out. Worth the risk, though.
Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.
Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. If they’re solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 4th 2B, maybe even 3rd. 2B isn’t deep this year (is it ever?), and Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from 13-19 round (15th 1B). YOU take him: Closer to 13, although it might be safe to let him fall a couple. He’s being drafted almost a full round later than last week. His upside is huge and if he’s hitting 5th and that could be huge. AVG, R, and maybe big RBIs. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did.
Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: 15th round or so. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: his right handed hitting (he’s a switch hitter for the uneducated). Trust me. Above .280 AVG this year from the right side and watch out.
Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (66th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 20 of the other closers in MLB. His back also makes him a health risk. In other words—FRAGILE: Handle With Care.
Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (65th P, 40th SP). YOU take him: early to mid teens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. Others are catching on. He’s way too good to be going 40th among the starters. At worst, he’s around 20th in terms of talent. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. In my first draft, I got him in the 19th round. That’s a ridiculous steal. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.25, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see.
Chad Cordero, P: Currently going early twenties (80th P, 32nd RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.
Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is could wane hitting leadoff. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). He’s gonna hit leadoff most likely, but that only means more runs if he quits striking out. Worth the risk, though.
Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.
Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. If they’re solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Wednesday, March 03, 2004
Draft Quick Hits, 3.3.2004
Orlando Cabrera, SS: Currently going 6-8 round (8th SS). YOU take him: As early as 3rd SS, no later than 6th SS. The SS are goin’ early this year (10 in first 80, top 4 in first 20). I’d take him no later than 5th, ahead of Matsui, Furcal, and Jeter. He’s gonna run more, and he’s primed for a big year.
Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 5-7. (4th 2B) 2B isn’t deep this year (is it ever?), and Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from 12-18 round (15th 1B). YOU take him: really anywhere in there but know he’s a health risk. If he’s healty, he’s in the middle of the order and that could be huge. Hitting 5th—real huge. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did.
Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: 15th round or so. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: watch his AVG vs. LHP. Trust me. Above .280 this year and watch out.
Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (67th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 15 of the other closers in MLB.
Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 44th SP). YOU take him: early to mid teens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. He’s way too good to be going 42nd among the starters. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.25, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see.
Chad Cordero, P: Currently going early twenties (78th P, 30th RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.
Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is waning. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). He’s gonna hit leadoff most likely, but that only means more runs if he quits striking out. Worth the risk, though.
Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.
Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. If they’re solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 5-7. (4th 2B) 2B isn’t deep this year (is it ever?), and Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from 12-18 round (15th 1B). YOU take him: really anywhere in there but know he’s a health risk. If he’s healty, he’s in the middle of the order and that could be huge. Hitting 5th—real huge. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did.
Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: 15th round or so. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: watch his AVG vs. LHP. Trust me. Above .280 this year and watch out.
Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (67th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 15 of the other closers in MLB.
Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 44th SP). YOU take him: early to mid teens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. He’s way too good to be going 42nd among the starters. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.25, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see.
Chad Cordero, P: Currently going early twenties (78th P, 30th RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.
Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is waning. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). He’s gonna hit leadoff most likely, but that only means more runs if he quits striking out. Worth the risk, though.
Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.
Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. If they’re solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Camp Chatter/Outfield Preview
I was reading that Tomo Ohka is starting on Thursday against the Tigers. I felt this curious rush in my chest for a moment. Then I realized—Tomo’s pitching this Thursday. Baseball is here, my friends. Sure, it’s Spring Training, but it’s time to suit up and get between the lines. We have probable starters! Doesn’t that feel good? Anyway, Day goes Friday, and Hernandez, Vargas, and Kim go Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. Notice someone absent? That’s right. Armas was skipped for his bullpen on Monday. That bicep is still giving him trouble. Here’s what I know—they’ve curtailed his weightlifting program and he’s not throwing off a mound until it’s completely better, according to the team website. I don’t know about you but that sounds like a setback to me. And maybe not a small one.
Here’s the worst part—Robinson says Armas will start the season (if healthy) as the 5th starter (so he can be skipped as needed). And because of the delicateness of his injury, it may stay that way further into the season. That sound you hear (other than your deep exhalation) is the worth rushing out of Armas for the early part of the year. I’ve been optimistic up ‘til now, but I’m beginning to worry—and if you’re planning on investing in Armas (or already have), so should you. With the sticks, hitting coach Tom McCraw says he’s not going to fool with Tony Batista’s swing because it seems to be working for him and he doesn’t want to change anything unnecessarily. My plan is to mail TB’s stat line to Viera ‘cause they obviously haven’t seen it if they think nothing is wrong with him.
I just spelled out in my last article why he’s got big problems and won’t waste space doing it again. The fact that he stands with one foot in the third base dugout while the pitcher starts his delivery should be proof enough without looking at a single box score. In backup catcher news, Gregg Zaun has apparently sprained his wrist by “sleeping on it wrong.” There was also a report of him doing it “swinging a bat”, but his sleeping habits lead by a 2-1 margin, so I’m going with that. I really don’t know what Gregg is dreaming about, but I think he should maybe invest in some oven mitts or somethin’.
Out in the FieldTurf—Brad Wilkerson, CF
What can you do as a manager if you have a player who walks or strikes out in 41 % of his ABs? Move him to leadoff? That’s where BW will likely spend most of 2004. His OBP is great (.378) but he was 3rd in Ks last year in the NL (155). Does this make any sense? Wilkerson is definitely an anomaly, but his career OBP is .368 even though he has struck out in almost 1/3 of his ABs. His career AVG (.261) reflects that, but his pitches per plate appearance (4.36 in ’03—best in ML) perhaps explain why he’s able to get on the pond so much. His ability to make a difference lies almost completely in making contact. If he can be more of a contact hitter and less of an AC unit, his value could really take a step up. If you can get him late in your draft, it might just be worth the risk.
Carl Everett, RF
Everett is in Montreal this season to provide a big bat in the middle of the order. Now, I didn’t just say “replace Guerrero”…’cause, please, that ain’t happenin’. But Everett’s power will be heavily relied on this year, and he might not disappoint. He had a couple of blah years in ’01 and ’02, but last year was solid again though his SLG faded significantly in the 2nd half. Here’s the key to Everett—AVG vs. LHP. What? Yeah, that’s the key. He’s batted consistently above .280 against RHP over the last five years. Those 2 blah years against LHP? .197 and .220. His solid ’99 and ’00 campaigns against LHP? A trailblazing .325 and .348. See a trend? In a division that could have as many as 8 lefty starters to open the year, his AVG vs. LHP could figure big. Keep an eye on it.
The Six-Headed Monster, LF
Ron Calloway, Val Pascucci, Peter Bergeron, Endy Chavez, Juan Rivera, Termel Sledge. MLB regs say all six (or really even more than one) can’t play LF at the same time. To keep it short for now (for space purposes), Calloway—No. Chavez—No. Pascucci—No. Robinson says that Bergeron only makes the team if he’s the starter. So unless Bergeron goes nuts (and he probably won’t), that leaves Rivera and Sledge. The early favorite seems to be Sledge. His AAA numbers last year certainly raised eyebrows (.324/22/92, 95 R and 13 SB). Rivera has never played full-time in the bigs, but he could be adequate if Sledge isn’t quite ready to start. Considering Sledge has a grand total of zero MLB ABs means it wouldn’t be unreasonable for him to struggle. Definitely more on this to come.
On Deck
Next time we’ll start looking at the lineup and check out developments from the first week of spring play. I don’t like to give too many number projections for players because anyone who does—even with detailed stats—is merely forming the best educated guess they can (guess being the operative word). However, I may yet try to pin the tail on the statistical donkey. The Draft Quick Hits are updated again on the archive site (http://exposflb.blog-city.com) and you can e-mail me at exposflb@insightbb.com. I’ll be checking out the Quick Hits myself—the correspondents league draft is tonight. Wish me luck. And until next week, for the love of Gregg Zaun, be careful sleeping and don’t sprain your wrist. Reporting for the Expos, I’m Matt Allen—ESPN.
Here’s the worst part—Robinson says Armas will start the season (if healthy) as the 5th starter (so he can be skipped as needed). And because of the delicateness of his injury, it may stay that way further into the season. That sound you hear (other than your deep exhalation) is the worth rushing out of Armas for the early part of the year. I’ve been optimistic up ‘til now, but I’m beginning to worry—and if you’re planning on investing in Armas (or already have), so should you. With the sticks, hitting coach Tom McCraw says he’s not going to fool with Tony Batista’s swing because it seems to be working for him and he doesn’t want to change anything unnecessarily. My plan is to mail TB’s stat line to Viera ‘cause they obviously haven’t seen it if they think nothing is wrong with him.
I just spelled out in my last article why he’s got big problems and won’t waste space doing it again. The fact that he stands with one foot in the third base dugout while the pitcher starts his delivery should be proof enough without looking at a single box score. In backup catcher news, Gregg Zaun has apparently sprained his wrist by “sleeping on it wrong.” There was also a report of him doing it “swinging a bat”, but his sleeping habits lead by a 2-1 margin, so I’m going with that. I really don’t know what Gregg is dreaming about, but I think he should maybe invest in some oven mitts or somethin’.
Out in the FieldTurf—Brad Wilkerson, CF
What can you do as a manager if you have a player who walks or strikes out in 41 % of his ABs? Move him to leadoff? That’s where BW will likely spend most of 2004. His OBP is great (.378) but he was 3rd in Ks last year in the NL (155). Does this make any sense? Wilkerson is definitely an anomaly, but his career OBP is .368 even though he has struck out in almost 1/3 of his ABs. His career AVG (.261) reflects that, but his pitches per plate appearance (4.36 in ’03—best in ML) perhaps explain why he’s able to get on the pond so much. His ability to make a difference lies almost completely in making contact. If he can be more of a contact hitter and less of an AC unit, his value could really take a step up. If you can get him late in your draft, it might just be worth the risk.
Carl Everett, RF
Everett is in Montreal this season to provide a big bat in the middle of the order. Now, I didn’t just say “replace Guerrero”…’cause, please, that ain’t happenin’. But Everett’s power will be heavily relied on this year, and he might not disappoint. He had a couple of blah years in ’01 and ’02, but last year was solid again though his SLG faded significantly in the 2nd half. Here’s the key to Everett—AVG vs. LHP. What? Yeah, that’s the key. He’s batted consistently above .280 against RHP over the last five years. Those 2 blah years against LHP? .197 and .220. His solid ’99 and ’00 campaigns against LHP? A trailblazing .325 and .348. See a trend? In a division that could have as many as 8 lefty starters to open the year, his AVG vs. LHP could figure big. Keep an eye on it.
The Six-Headed Monster, LF
Ron Calloway, Val Pascucci, Peter Bergeron, Endy Chavez, Juan Rivera, Termel Sledge. MLB regs say all six (or really even more than one) can’t play LF at the same time. To keep it short for now (for space purposes), Calloway—No. Chavez—No. Pascucci—No. Robinson says that Bergeron only makes the team if he’s the starter. So unless Bergeron goes nuts (and he probably won’t), that leaves Rivera and Sledge. The early favorite seems to be Sledge. His AAA numbers last year certainly raised eyebrows (.324/22/92, 95 R and 13 SB). Rivera has never played full-time in the bigs, but he could be adequate if Sledge isn’t quite ready to start. Considering Sledge has a grand total of zero MLB ABs means it wouldn’t be unreasonable for him to struggle. Definitely more on this to come.
On Deck
Next time we’ll start looking at the lineup and check out developments from the first week of spring play. I don’t like to give too many number projections for players because anyone who does—even with detailed stats—is merely forming the best educated guess they can (guess being the operative word). However, I may yet try to pin the tail on the statistical donkey. The Draft Quick Hits are updated again on the archive site (http://exposflb.blog-city.com) and you can e-mail me at exposflb@insightbb.com. I’ll be checking out the Quick Hits myself—the correspondents league draft is tonight. Wish me luck. And until next week, for the love of Gregg Zaun, be careful sleeping and don’t sprain your wrist. Reporting for the Expos, I’m Matt Allen—ESPN.
