Monday, July 11, 2005
What Was That?!
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only twice in MLB history had a team as far below .500 as the Mariners gone on the road to sweep a team as far above .500 as the Angels (to give you an idea of how long it's been, the last team to do it was the St. Louis BROWNS). This past weekend, it happened for a 3rd time. The Angels plated 13 runs in the 4-gamer but allowed 33, 21 of those by the starters. After laying that egg, the Halo AL West lead is down to only 5 games. A division that most declared over isn't so over anymore. That's why I chuckle when people say a division is over in June or early July. Still a lot of baseball to play, and the loss of Kelvim Escobar will still have plenty of time to rear its ugly head. The Angels are still the favorite (have you seen Texas' rotation?), but Yogi would tell ya it ain't over.
Mirror Master?
Bartolo Colon's first half of 2004 made owners go out and buy milk and batteries (6-8, 6.38 ERA, 76 K). BC's first half of 2005 has been much, much better (11-5, 3.42 ERA, 89 K), even with Thursday's thrashing vs. Seattle (6 IP, 7 H, 7 ER). Could this be a sign of a terrible 2nd half for him? We could see a little slip. In 3 of his last 6 starts (all at least 6 IP), he's only fanned 3 or less. What's kept him afloat (and could continue to) is his miniscule walk total. Even with 3 walks on Thursday, he's only allowed 6 free passes in his last 9 starts. That's a BB/9 of 0.8--fan-smackin-tastic. If he's only going to continue to fan only 5.5 per 9, his walks will have to stay that low, but a 3.87 K/BB ratio is going to give you great success most of the time. Forget Thurday--for now.
Flipping Statistical Analysis the Byrd
Speaking of riding low K totals to success, the 2nd most productive SP for the Halos in the first half was Paul Byrd. I said that he would have to be pinpoint with all his pitches to be successful, and for the most part, he has been. A 3.75 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP tells the story. In 17 starts, Byrd has struck out 6 only twice while completing 6 innings in all but one of his starts. His saving grace is his 16 BB in 115 IP. What's possibly most amazing is that this soft-tosser has done it with a 0.84 G/F ratio and a HR/9 of 0.85. History says he'll have to stay this fine with his control to have continued success, but history also says that the most BBs Byrd has surrendered in since 2000 is 38--the same year he fanned a career high of 129 and won 17. Don't see too many byrds like Paulie.
Always Swingin'
And hardly ever missing. In 33 ABs in July, Bengie Molina hasn't walked a single time and struck only once. The hits are falling in too, as his .394 July average proves. Bengie has been known for seeing few pitches he doesn't like and at least making contact with most of them. Obviously, this kind of production can't continue over a whole season (especially when you figure in the big disadvantage of speed in Bengie's case), but with a .311 mark at the All-Star Break and 8 HRs, finishing off the year with a .300+ average and 15+ HR doesn't sound far-fetched. Remember, he's only played in 54 games, but realistically, expecting more than 110 might be too much. You could do a lot worse in deeper leagues, though, than making a move to get B. Molina.
Mound Notes
Joel Peralta had another poor outing on Friday (1.2 IP, 3 ER), which raised his ERA to 4.74. That's his 2nd hiccup in 4 outings, but it still might be a little premature to give up on him. Take away those 2 bad showings (2.2 IP 8 ER, 5 BB) and you've got a 1.10 ERA with 18 K and only 3 BB. Even Friday he still fanned 4 of the 5 batters he retired. His 4 HR in only 19 IP is probably just bad luck. He's kept the ball in the yard well in the minors. He's in a rough patch but can still help you. Esteban Yan is a pitcher who came highly recommended out of spring training but has struggled profusely. It appears that he finally may be putting it together, with an ERA and WHIP under 1 the last 4 weeks. Just put him on your watch list for now because he's had some luck (20% hit rate).
Free Agent Disappointments
That's really the only way to classify Steve Finley and Orlando Cabrera after the first half. Sure, Finley hit 8 HRs, but he also hit .223. Sure, Orlando Cabrera has fewer errors than any regular SS in the AL, but he's hit .249. Both players OPS is under .700 and they're both currently injured. That's not what the Angels had in mind when they handed over the big dough for the multi-year contracts for these two. Will the 2nd half be any better? I think you can expect them both back soon and both to hit for a higher average they have (possibly much higher), but the big numbers that fantasy owners were hoping for when drafting SF and OC are not going to be there. Finley could still approach 20 HR and Cabrera double-digit SB, but this is a year they'll probably both want to forget.
All-Star Cheers and Jeers
The Angels sent the fewest players to Detroit among AL division leaders with Chicago and Boston both sending 4, but the 3 that are there certainly deserve the honor. Vlad goes for the 6th time, GA the 3rd, and Colon the 2nd. Congrats to them as they try to lead the AL to victory for the 8th time in 9 years (don't forget the tie of 2002). Hopefully this will be the last time the All-Star will decide home-field advantage in the World Series. Sure, it's an interesting gimmick, but the fairest (and really the best) way of deciding the home field had yet to be used for the World Series. We've tried alternating years between leagues, we've tried "This Time It Counts", how about we try the rational solution of best overall record? Just a thought. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Mirror Master?
Bartolo Colon's first half of 2004 made owners go out and buy milk and batteries (6-8, 6.38 ERA, 76 K). BC's first half of 2005 has been much, much better (11-5, 3.42 ERA, 89 K), even with Thursday's thrashing vs. Seattle (6 IP, 7 H, 7 ER). Could this be a sign of a terrible 2nd half for him? We could see a little slip. In 3 of his last 6 starts (all at least 6 IP), he's only fanned 3 or less. What's kept him afloat (and could continue to) is his miniscule walk total. Even with 3 walks on Thursday, he's only allowed 6 free passes in his last 9 starts. That's a BB/9 of 0.8--fan-smackin-tastic. If he's only going to continue to fan only 5.5 per 9, his walks will have to stay that low, but a 3.87 K/BB ratio is going to give you great success most of the time. Forget Thurday--for now.
Flipping Statistical Analysis the Byrd
Speaking of riding low K totals to success, the 2nd most productive SP for the Halos in the first half was Paul Byrd. I said that he would have to be pinpoint with all his pitches to be successful, and for the most part, he has been. A 3.75 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP tells the story. In 17 starts, Byrd has struck out 6 only twice while completing 6 innings in all but one of his starts. His saving grace is his 16 BB in 115 IP. What's possibly most amazing is that this soft-tosser has done it with a 0.84 G/F ratio and a HR/9 of 0.85. History says he'll have to stay this fine with his control to have continued success, but history also says that the most BBs Byrd has surrendered in since 2000 is 38--the same year he fanned a career high of 129 and won 17. Don't see too many byrds like Paulie.
Always Swingin'
And hardly ever missing. In 33 ABs in July, Bengie Molina hasn't walked a single time and struck only once. The hits are falling in too, as his .394 July average proves. Bengie has been known for seeing few pitches he doesn't like and at least making contact with most of them. Obviously, this kind of production can't continue over a whole season (especially when you figure in the big disadvantage of speed in Bengie's case), but with a .311 mark at the All-Star Break and 8 HRs, finishing off the year with a .300+ average and 15+ HR doesn't sound far-fetched. Remember, he's only played in 54 games, but realistically, expecting more than 110 might be too much. You could do a lot worse in deeper leagues, though, than making a move to get B. Molina.
Mound Notes
Joel Peralta had another poor outing on Friday (1.2 IP, 3 ER), which raised his ERA to 4.74. That's his 2nd hiccup in 4 outings, but it still might be a little premature to give up on him. Take away those 2 bad showings (2.2 IP 8 ER, 5 BB) and you've got a 1.10 ERA with 18 K and only 3 BB. Even Friday he still fanned 4 of the 5 batters he retired. His 4 HR in only 19 IP is probably just bad luck. He's kept the ball in the yard well in the minors. He's in a rough patch but can still help you. Esteban Yan is a pitcher who came highly recommended out of spring training but has struggled profusely. It appears that he finally may be putting it together, with an ERA and WHIP under 1 the last 4 weeks. Just put him on your watch list for now because he's had some luck (20% hit rate).
Free Agent Disappointments
That's really the only way to classify Steve Finley and Orlando Cabrera after the first half. Sure, Finley hit 8 HRs, but he also hit .223. Sure, Orlando Cabrera has fewer errors than any regular SS in the AL, but he's hit .249. Both players OPS is under .700 and they're both currently injured. That's not what the Angels had in mind when they handed over the big dough for the multi-year contracts for these two. Will the 2nd half be any better? I think you can expect them both back soon and both to hit for a higher average they have (possibly much higher), but the big numbers that fantasy owners were hoping for when drafting SF and OC are not going to be there. Finley could still approach 20 HR and Cabrera double-digit SB, but this is a year they'll probably both want to forget.
All-Star Cheers and Jeers
The Angels sent the fewest players to Detroit among AL division leaders with Chicago and Boston both sending 4, but the 3 that are there certainly deserve the honor. Vlad goes for the 6th time, GA the 3rd, and Colon the 2nd. Congrats to them as they try to lead the AL to victory for the 8th time in 9 years (don't forget the tie of 2002). Hopefully this will be the last time the All-Star will decide home-field advantage in the World Series. Sure, it's an interesting gimmick, but the fairest (and really the best) way of deciding the home field had yet to be used for the World Series. We've tried alternating years between leagues, we've tried "This Time It Counts", how about we try the rational solution of best overall record? Just a thought. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
