Friday, April 30, 2004
Taming the Tigers/Arena Baseball!
They're Grrrrrrrrrrrrrreat!
After hitting double digit runs twice in 3 games at Comerica, the Angels are 5-1 on their current roadie, taking 2 of 3 from the mighty Tigers. Detroit's not that much of a hitter's park, despite the weak Tiger pitching staff and the fact that the Tigers offense have averaged 6 a game there so far, tied for 6th in the bigs. The Halos looked good, except for Mr. Colon. His Wednesday shellacking didn't smell very good at all, despite his fragrant last name. His line: 4 IP, 7 H, 7 ER. Worry? Are ya kiddin' me? He still fanned 6. Everyone has those starts. Bartolo just found out that even the Tigers (who are much better than last year, by the way) can still smack the ball if you get it up in the zone. When he faces the D-Rays in a few days, the smiles will be back for his owners.
Who looked great in Detroit? Try three right-handed hitters named Guerrero, Glaus, and Guillen who all went yard in the basically the toughest park for a righty to do so. They knocked in 3, 5, and 3 respectively and Guerrero and Glaus had five XBH between them. Also, we're one month in and here's an update on the Guillen/Salmon watch. In the preseason, I noted that these two "Angels in the Outfield" (sorry) would have very similar lines this season. Thus far, Salmon's health has limited his ABs slightly, but look at this--Guillen: .259/2/12 w/11R. Salmon: .188/2/10 w/8R. Pretty close except for AVG and Guillen's free-swingin' ways (17K, 5BB) compared to Salmon's (10K, 8BB) will diminish that difference over the course of the year. Right now: Guillen 90% owned. Salmon 3%.
Headline: Garret Anderson on DL; Is that right?
GA's never hit the DL in his entire MLB career. Well, he has now. Already out most of last week, he continued to sit through Detroit and is now back in CA skipping the MIN series to meet with team doctors. What's the word? Well, it could be serious. Don't go buy milk and batteries just yet, but it's possible that his back problems could be something nerve-related, which is much more serious than a muscle. Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll says that because of the intermittent loss of sensation in GA's hands, it could be a disc impinging on the nerves. Now, I'm not a doctor, but that doesn't sound good. The results of his tests aren't in yet and he may very well be back May 7th against TB, but be prepared that for once with GA, this could linger and keep him out.
Other Broken Wings
Eckstein heard his groin "pop" according to just about every media avenue that covered the story (which is really more than I cared to know) when he slid back into first on a pickoff move Tuesday. He couldn't even sit up later that night yet Wednesday was back out sprinting and doing stretching exercises. A Thera-Gesic miracle? He could see a little action in MIN, even on the Turf-crete that is the Metrodome. Escobar bled on himself for 4 innings last Saturday because of a split nail. He might be replaced by Gregg or Sele tomorrow. Don't be surprised if he goes to the DL retroactively. But that's all speculation, so wait for a game time decision. Maybe Gregg will get to showcase his stuff as early as tomorrow. If so, expect Ramon Ortiz to start looking over his shoulder.
The Platoon That Isn't
Adam Kennedy didn't play yesterday for the second time this year, Scioscia giving him a "regular day off". Kennedy has only sat two days, both against lefties. Since 2001, he's only averaged 94 ABs per year against LHP (20% of his ABs) and while he's already faced southpaws 21 times this year (30% of his ABs) and he has started in 6 of the 8 games that the Halos faced LHP, don't be surprised if Scioscia continues to give him his "regular days off" coincidentally when the Angels face LHP. Halter has shown he can do adequately (said generously) in a fill-in role at 2B and Amezaga could spell him some. Kennedy should continue to play most days, but this "non-existent platoon" will probably continue to exist. Should it? Kennedy's OPS vs. LHP this year? .840.
Eating Crow. . . But Not Much
In my preseason analysis, I said that Washburn's success in '04 hinged on "two things: Ks and HRs." Apparently, I wasn't optimistic enough for many of you and my mail let me know. One reader even claimed he was "local", giving him a better read than me, although unless by "local" he meant he actually knows the players, I really don't know how that helps. Anyway--the numbers. K/9: 7.1 (up 2.0). Big improvement. HR/9: 0.9. Not great, but better than league average. One more thing I said was the Ws would return "with run support". So far: 11.93 R/9, which leads the AL. I'll concede I didn't give enough credit to Wash for his potential to rebound, but I just want to point out that his 4-1 record comes as no surprise to me considering the stats.
On Deck . . . Arena Baseball!
That's what Scioscia called playing in MIN, according to the LA Times. Despite it's moniker "HomerDome", it's actually a tougher park to hit one out than most people believe. That will help our beloved "Meat Machine" Ortiz, Lackey, or Sele (if he subs for Escobar) who have all shown tendencies for mucho fly balls. The Metrodome is, however, the only place to play a baseball version of Horse by calling one "off the speaker in right-center and over the trash bag" for a dinger. The Angels face a hot Twins team who'll throw Carlos Silva, Brad Radke, and Johan Santana. I'm sticking with my original pick of 2 out of 3 here to finish the roadie 7-2. Expect quite a few runs this weekend and balls bouncing everywhere. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen, ESPN.
After hitting double digit runs twice in 3 games at Comerica, the Angels are 5-1 on their current roadie, taking 2 of 3 from the mighty Tigers. Detroit's not that much of a hitter's park, despite the weak Tiger pitching staff and the fact that the Tigers offense have averaged 6 a game there so far, tied for 6th in the bigs. The Halos looked good, except for Mr. Colon. His Wednesday shellacking didn't smell very good at all, despite his fragrant last name. His line: 4 IP, 7 H, 7 ER. Worry? Are ya kiddin' me? He still fanned 6. Everyone has those starts. Bartolo just found out that even the Tigers (who are much better than last year, by the way) can still smack the ball if you get it up in the zone. When he faces the D-Rays in a few days, the smiles will be back for his owners.
Who looked great in Detroit? Try three right-handed hitters named Guerrero, Glaus, and Guillen who all went yard in the basically the toughest park for a righty to do so. They knocked in 3, 5, and 3 respectively and Guerrero and Glaus had five XBH between them. Also, we're one month in and here's an update on the Guillen/Salmon watch. In the preseason, I noted that these two "Angels in the Outfield" (sorry) would have very similar lines this season. Thus far, Salmon's health has limited his ABs slightly, but look at this--Guillen: .259/2/12 w/11R. Salmon: .188/2/10 w/8R. Pretty close except for AVG and Guillen's free-swingin' ways (17K, 5BB) compared to Salmon's (10K, 8BB) will diminish that difference over the course of the year. Right now: Guillen 90% owned. Salmon 3%.
Headline: Garret Anderson on DL; Is that right?
GA's never hit the DL in his entire MLB career. Well, he has now. Already out most of last week, he continued to sit through Detroit and is now back in CA skipping the MIN series to meet with team doctors. What's the word? Well, it could be serious. Don't go buy milk and batteries just yet, but it's possible that his back problems could be something nerve-related, which is much more serious than a muscle. Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll says that because of the intermittent loss of sensation in GA's hands, it could be a disc impinging on the nerves. Now, I'm not a doctor, but that doesn't sound good. The results of his tests aren't in yet and he may very well be back May 7th against TB, but be prepared that for once with GA, this could linger and keep him out.
Other Broken Wings
Eckstein heard his groin "pop" according to just about every media avenue that covered the story (which is really more than I cared to know) when he slid back into first on a pickoff move Tuesday. He couldn't even sit up later that night yet Wednesday was back out sprinting and doing stretching exercises. A Thera-Gesic miracle? He could see a little action in MIN, even on the Turf-crete that is the Metrodome. Escobar bled on himself for 4 innings last Saturday because of a split nail. He might be replaced by Gregg or Sele tomorrow. Don't be surprised if he goes to the DL retroactively. But that's all speculation, so wait for a game time decision. Maybe Gregg will get to showcase his stuff as early as tomorrow. If so, expect Ramon Ortiz to start looking over his shoulder.
The Platoon That Isn't
Adam Kennedy didn't play yesterday for the second time this year, Scioscia giving him a "regular day off". Kennedy has only sat two days, both against lefties. Since 2001, he's only averaged 94 ABs per year against LHP (20% of his ABs) and while he's already faced southpaws 21 times this year (30% of his ABs) and he has started in 6 of the 8 games that the Halos faced LHP, don't be surprised if Scioscia continues to give him his "regular days off" coincidentally when the Angels face LHP. Halter has shown he can do adequately (said generously) in a fill-in role at 2B and Amezaga could spell him some. Kennedy should continue to play most days, but this "non-existent platoon" will probably continue to exist. Should it? Kennedy's OPS vs. LHP this year? .840.
Eating Crow. . . But Not Much
In my preseason analysis, I said that Washburn's success in '04 hinged on "two things: Ks and HRs." Apparently, I wasn't optimistic enough for many of you and my mail let me know. One reader even claimed he was "local", giving him a better read than me, although unless by "local" he meant he actually knows the players, I really don't know how that helps. Anyway--the numbers. K/9: 7.1 (up 2.0). Big improvement. HR/9: 0.9. Not great, but better than league average. One more thing I said was the Ws would return "with run support". So far: 11.93 R/9, which leads the AL. I'll concede I didn't give enough credit to Wash for his potential to rebound, but I just want to point out that his 4-1 record comes as no surprise to me considering the stats.
On Deck . . . Arena Baseball!
That's what Scioscia called playing in MIN, according to the LA Times. Despite it's moniker "HomerDome", it's actually a tougher park to hit one out than most people believe. That will help our beloved "Meat Machine" Ortiz, Lackey, or Sele (if he subs for Escobar) who have all shown tendencies for mucho fly balls. The Metrodome is, however, the only place to play a baseball version of Horse by calling one "off the speaker in right-center and over the trash bag" for a dinger. The Angels face a hot Twins team who'll throw Carlos Silva, Brad Radke, and Johan Santana. I'm sticking with my original pick of 2 out of 3 here to finish the roadie 7-2. Expect quite a few runs this weekend and balls bouncing everywhere. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen, ESPN.
Monday, April 26, 2004
Two Brooms/More Wings
That's two brooms
The mighty Halos picked up another broom last night after polishing off the Elephant Men one last time to the tune of 4-3. Now, I don't want you Regular Readers (both of you) to be shocked, but I want to admit that I did add Ramon Ortiz in my 12-team league yesterday. I cringed as I pushed the Add Player button, but it was like this--I was up only 4 Ks and my opponent had Pedro and the D-Train on the hill. I added Jeff Suppan and our beloved "Meat Machine" Ortiz because they were facing the Brewers and the A's, the two teams that have whiffed the most this year. Fortunately, ERA was already a lost cause for the week, so it made the decision less taxing. I ended up on top by 9 Ks, so Ortiz's 6 whiffs gave me some breathing room. Don't worry, though--he's back in the FA pool.
As for the real game, RO didn't have a terrible outing. His most impressive stat? 7 groundouts, 2 flyouts. Hard to give up a lotta dingers with that ratio. Don't start expecting 16 wins like Bud and Scioscia though. They're gettin' paid to be optimistic. You--and I--aren't. He still threw 110 pitches in only 5 IP and his ERA is still a fat 9.77. Scoiscia told Ortiz he wasn't allowed to shake Molina off at all. Here's to hoping that rule continues. As for the A's, it was the first time they'd been swept in 48 series--and at home no less, where they are 84 games over .500 since the beginning of 2001. I'd say that's a pretty good statement, even for April. What we may be forgetting, though, is that the Angels didn't face Hudson or Mulder this weekend.
It's a bear of a bullpen
Let me give you a couple of numbers: 61 relief IP, 68 K. That's everyone. From the weakest to K-Rod. I keep waiting for his sickening breaking stuff to make some poor AL hitter vomit right there in the box. And it's not like he's throwing wild either. 2 BB in 10.2 IP for Frankie. If you can get him, he could really help out in some add-on Ks and maybe even a late W or three. Trade an overachiever for him--middle relievers aren't highly valued, but he'd be a nice pickup. Let me restate something else about the pen. The Angels have two guys in there who'd make a much better 5th SP than Ortiz. I've already covered Shields' credentials at Inside the Halo (http://angelsflb.blogspot.com) and now we've got Contestant #2.
Meet Kevin Gregg. Kevin has 14.1 IP in '04, with a miniscule ERA of 0.63, having fanned 15 batters so far while only allowing 13 base runners. Kevin went 15-7 between AA and AAA last year with 26 starts and 158 IP. He fanned 135 batters and posted a 3.82 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He's only 25 years old and he appears primed to step in given the opportunity. He enjoys long walks on the beach at night with his dog Sissy-fu and collects Yellowstone National Park postcards. Only one sentence in all that is false--I'll let you pick which one. KG is primed. By June, he could be in the rotation. Watch and wait.
Is GA OK?
All signs point to 'yes'. There was (and probably still is) some alarm when Anderson missed his 4th straight game for the first time ever, but Scioscia seems to think it'll be days not weeks. If you've got weekly trannies, I'd definitely consider benching him this week though. If you're here at ESPN (and you are now at least), then sit him tomorrow but monitor the situation. He'll most likely be back before the weekend. GA is durable, so don't worry.
Angel Wings
This time I'm bestowing a set of wings to the man who already is flying around the base paths. The last four days Chone Figgins has been in the starting lineup and has shown his worth. In only 14 AB, he's put up 5 hits (.357), 3 R, and that's right, 4 SB. If he could ever get regular playing time, he'd be an excellent speed source. Is regular playing time in his future? Not unless I can convince Scioscia to let him play first for Erstad. That won't happen (and shouldn't even though I like Figgins. Imagine trying to hit a 5'8", 160 lb target at first base). All the other starters are producing and will continue to. Here's hoping he spells at 2B, SS, and all OF positions. He's a sparkplug. With Figgins picking up his first set of wings, that's 1 for Figgins and 1 for Darin Erstad if you're scoring at home.
On Deck
The longest roadie of the year continues with three in Detroit and three in Minnesota. I'm optimistic for a 4-2 finish, making it 7-2 for the trip. I like Lackey to get his first win against Cornejo on Tuesday, while the game that worries me the most is Thursday. Washburn may be 3-1 but his ERA is 6.10 and he's walked 8 in his last two starts (10 IP). He's yet to see the 7th inning and Bonderman can wheel, even if his ERA is a slightly worse 6.65. Plus, the Tigers seem to think they can beat everyone right now. It wouldn't be out of the question to go for another broom though. And three brooms before the end of April would be nice. Real nice. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
The mighty Halos picked up another broom last night after polishing off the Elephant Men one last time to the tune of 4-3. Now, I don't want you Regular Readers (both of you) to be shocked, but I want to admit that I did add Ramon Ortiz in my 12-team league yesterday. I cringed as I pushed the Add Player button, but it was like this--I was up only 4 Ks and my opponent had Pedro and the D-Train on the hill. I added Jeff Suppan and our beloved "Meat Machine" Ortiz because they were facing the Brewers and the A's, the two teams that have whiffed the most this year. Fortunately, ERA was already a lost cause for the week, so it made the decision less taxing. I ended up on top by 9 Ks, so Ortiz's 6 whiffs gave me some breathing room. Don't worry, though--he's back in the FA pool.
As for the real game, RO didn't have a terrible outing. His most impressive stat? 7 groundouts, 2 flyouts. Hard to give up a lotta dingers with that ratio. Don't start expecting 16 wins like Bud and Scioscia though. They're gettin' paid to be optimistic. You--and I--aren't. He still threw 110 pitches in only 5 IP and his ERA is still a fat 9.77. Scoiscia told Ortiz he wasn't allowed to shake Molina off at all. Here's to hoping that rule continues. As for the A's, it was the first time they'd been swept in 48 series--and at home no less, where they are 84 games over .500 since the beginning of 2001. I'd say that's a pretty good statement, even for April. What we may be forgetting, though, is that the Angels didn't face Hudson or Mulder this weekend.
It's a bear of a bullpen
Let me give you a couple of numbers: 61 relief IP, 68 K. That's everyone. From the weakest to K-Rod. I keep waiting for his sickening breaking stuff to make some poor AL hitter vomit right there in the box. And it's not like he's throwing wild either. 2 BB in 10.2 IP for Frankie. If you can get him, he could really help out in some add-on Ks and maybe even a late W or three. Trade an overachiever for him--middle relievers aren't highly valued, but he'd be a nice pickup. Let me restate something else about the pen. The Angels have two guys in there who'd make a much better 5th SP than Ortiz. I've already covered Shields' credentials at Inside the Halo (http://angelsflb.blogspot.com) and now we've got Contestant #2.
Meet Kevin Gregg. Kevin has 14.1 IP in '04, with a miniscule ERA of 0.63, having fanned 15 batters so far while only allowing 13 base runners. Kevin went 15-7 between AA and AAA last year with 26 starts and 158 IP. He fanned 135 batters and posted a 3.82 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He's only 25 years old and he appears primed to step in given the opportunity. He enjoys long walks on the beach at night with his dog Sissy-fu and collects Yellowstone National Park postcards. Only one sentence in all that is false--I'll let you pick which one. KG is primed. By June, he could be in the rotation. Watch and wait.
Is GA OK?
All signs point to 'yes'. There was (and probably still is) some alarm when Anderson missed his 4th straight game for the first time ever, but Scioscia seems to think it'll be days not weeks. If you've got weekly trannies, I'd definitely consider benching him this week though. If you're here at ESPN (and you are now at least), then sit him tomorrow but monitor the situation. He'll most likely be back before the weekend. GA is durable, so don't worry.
Angel Wings
This time I'm bestowing a set of wings to the man who already is flying around the base paths. The last four days Chone Figgins has been in the starting lineup and has shown his worth. In only 14 AB, he's put up 5 hits (.357), 3 R, and that's right, 4 SB. If he could ever get regular playing time, he'd be an excellent speed source. Is regular playing time in his future? Not unless I can convince Scioscia to let him play first for Erstad. That won't happen (and shouldn't even though I like Figgins. Imagine trying to hit a 5'8", 160 lb target at first base). All the other starters are producing and will continue to. Here's hoping he spells at 2B, SS, and all OF positions. He's a sparkplug. With Figgins picking up his first set of wings, that's 1 for Figgins and 1 for Darin Erstad if you're scoring at home.
On Deck
The longest roadie of the year continues with three in Detroit and three in Minnesota. I'm optimistic for a 4-2 finish, making it 7-2 for the trip. I like Lackey to get his first win against Cornejo on Tuesday, while the game that worries me the most is Thursday. Washburn may be 3-1 but his ERA is 6.10 and he's walked 8 in his last two starts (10 IP). He's yet to see the 7th inning and Bonderman can wheel, even if his ERA is a slightly worse 6.65. Plus, the Tigers seem to think they can beat everyone right now. It wouldn't be out of the question to go for another broom though. And three brooms before the end of April would be nice. Real nice. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Wednesday, April 21, 2004
Two Weeks In/Angels Get Their Wings
7-up, 7-down
We're just two weeks into the fantasy (and the actual) season, and the Halos after a hot start are just .500. This is mainly due to a sweltering 1-4 start against the Rangers, who have the Angels to thank for being anywhere remotely near .500 as well. I know it's April, and I know the Rangers are expected to finish last, but I'll say right now that they provide the least favorable matchup of any team in the AL West for the Halos (yes, even worse than the Elephant Men). I realize I'm starting from a 4-1 advantage, but I'd be willing to venture that the Angels may not have a winning record against the boys from Arlington for the season. Good thing for Angels' fans is that after this week's series, they don't meet again until July 21. Time to make some adjustments.
I hate to say I told ya so…no I don't
Can someone please read back to me my remarks on the disaster I said it would be to have Ramon Ortiz in the rotation? Didn't I say something about a significantly decreased k/9 rate and a declining groundball/flyball ratio with a history of giving up long balls to begin with? Yes, I'm certain I mentioned something about all that. I recall saying in my last column that "Meat Machine" Ortiz would most likely get rocked by Texas. What was his line that day? 2.2 IP, 7 ER. What was his line against them yesterday? 2.1 IP, 4 ER. Current ERA: 12.66. Can't Scioscia and Black see that his success was due to finishing 4th in AL run support last year (on a team that finished 11th in AL runs scored no less). Ramon Ortiz won the lottery getting 16 Ws in '03. It won't happen again.
Donnelly's nose on the mend
Scioscia said in the LA Daily News that Donnelly's back doing cardio exercises and pitcher's fielding practice. While Donnelly could come back and find himself 3rd in the bullpen hierarchy behind Percival and Rodriguez, he's still a good add to your fantasy team if you're looking for a low ERA and WHIP. He's also struck out more than a batter an inning for the last 2 years. Keep an eye on this and if he comes back soon, grab him if you're troubled in those areas.
What the Eck?
Don't look now, but David Eckstein, who was drafted on average 25th among ML SSs in this year's ESPN drafts, is currently the 13th best SS in the bigs, according to the Player Rater. He's hit just under .300, swiped a couple of bags, and scored 5 runs. Will he continue to be helpful at, say, the 2B/SS slot? Here's some signs that point to 'yes': only 1 K in 54 ABs (historically he strikes out in less than 10% of his ABs), Scioscia's running philosophy could net him 25+ SBs, and oh yeah, he's hitting in front of guys named Guerrero, Anderson, Glaus, Guillen, and Salmon. Not only that, but he's currently out performing much higher drafted SSs like Berroa, Cintron, Furcal, and two guys named Jeter and Rodriguez.
Guillen/Salmon watch
Something else that I contended in the preseason was that Tim Salmon's line at the end of the year would look conspicuously like the much more-hyped Jose Guillen's. So far, let's take a look: Guillen--.264, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 7 R. Salmon--.188, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R. While it's close except for the AVG, keep in mind that Guillen has already whiffed 14 times compared to Salmon's 7, while only walking once more. This will not bode well for his AVG in the future, although the one advantage he may have over Salmon in the long run could be AVG. Overall, though, Salmon can be had much easier and is likely to provide almost the same stats, assuming he stays healthy. Currently his knee is sore, but he's day-to-day. As long as he's regular, deal Guillen for an upgrade and grab Salmon.
Every time I write a column…
. . . an Angels gets his wings. I'll take a look at the hottest Angel--fantasy wise--in the last seven days and tell you if he can help your team and where. We might also clip a few wings for those who are performing like Ramon Ortiz, but for now I'm going to leave him and his gopherballs alone. This week, we're pinning some wings on Darin Erstad. Yeah, I know I asked all of you nicely to shy away from DE, saying he could be the least productive full-time 1B in MLB this year. Well, actually I still stand by that, but his line this week looks like this: 6-for-23 (.261), 3 R, 3 SB. It's mainly the swipes which have made him so valuable to fantasy owners this week, but it will continue to be his only strength, and even then only to the tune of 20 or so. You can find those elsewhere.
On Deck
After muddling through two more with Texas, the Halos head away from home for their longest roadie of the year at 9 games. There'll be stops in OAK, DET, and MIN along the way, marking the first games the Angels play outside the AL West. I'm thinking that Anaheim could feast on some Tiger pitching, and although the Twins are hot, they're beat up and they've got guys who are playing above their talent level, which won't last forever. Hopefully they'll be off the hot horse by April 30. The A's series will be fun to watch. The Elephant men will most likely throw Redman and Harden over the weekend, where the Halos will have Escobar and the Meat Machine. As for Game 1 on Friday? Washburn vs. Zito. Should be real fun. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
We're just two weeks into the fantasy (and the actual) season, and the Halos after a hot start are just .500. This is mainly due to a sweltering 1-4 start against the Rangers, who have the Angels to thank for being anywhere remotely near .500 as well. I know it's April, and I know the Rangers are expected to finish last, but I'll say right now that they provide the least favorable matchup of any team in the AL West for the Halos (yes, even worse than the Elephant Men). I realize I'm starting from a 4-1 advantage, but I'd be willing to venture that the Angels may not have a winning record against the boys from Arlington for the season. Good thing for Angels' fans is that after this week's series, they don't meet again until July 21. Time to make some adjustments.
I hate to say I told ya so…no I don't
Can someone please read back to me my remarks on the disaster I said it would be to have Ramon Ortiz in the rotation? Didn't I say something about a significantly decreased k/9 rate and a declining groundball/flyball ratio with a history of giving up long balls to begin with? Yes, I'm certain I mentioned something about all that. I recall saying in my last column that "Meat Machine" Ortiz would most likely get rocked by Texas. What was his line that day? 2.2 IP, 7 ER. What was his line against them yesterday? 2.1 IP, 4 ER. Current ERA: 12.66. Can't Scioscia and Black see that his success was due to finishing 4th in AL run support last year (on a team that finished 11th in AL runs scored no less). Ramon Ortiz won the lottery getting 16 Ws in '03. It won't happen again.
Donnelly's nose on the mend
Scioscia said in the LA Daily News that Donnelly's back doing cardio exercises and pitcher's fielding practice. While Donnelly could come back and find himself 3rd in the bullpen hierarchy behind Percival and Rodriguez, he's still a good add to your fantasy team if you're looking for a low ERA and WHIP. He's also struck out more than a batter an inning for the last 2 years. Keep an eye on this and if he comes back soon, grab him if you're troubled in those areas.
What the Eck?
Don't look now, but David Eckstein, who was drafted on average 25th among ML SSs in this year's ESPN drafts, is currently the 13th best SS in the bigs, according to the Player Rater. He's hit just under .300, swiped a couple of bags, and scored 5 runs. Will he continue to be helpful at, say, the 2B/SS slot? Here's some signs that point to 'yes': only 1 K in 54 ABs (historically he strikes out in less than 10% of his ABs), Scioscia's running philosophy could net him 25+ SBs, and oh yeah, he's hitting in front of guys named Guerrero, Anderson, Glaus, Guillen, and Salmon. Not only that, but he's currently out performing much higher drafted SSs like Berroa, Cintron, Furcal, and two guys named Jeter and Rodriguez.
Guillen/Salmon watch
Something else that I contended in the preseason was that Tim Salmon's line at the end of the year would look conspicuously like the much more-hyped Jose Guillen's. So far, let's take a look: Guillen--.264, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 7 R. Salmon--.188, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R. While it's close except for the AVG, keep in mind that Guillen has already whiffed 14 times compared to Salmon's 7, while only walking once more. This will not bode well for his AVG in the future, although the one advantage he may have over Salmon in the long run could be AVG. Overall, though, Salmon can be had much easier and is likely to provide almost the same stats, assuming he stays healthy. Currently his knee is sore, but he's day-to-day. As long as he's regular, deal Guillen for an upgrade and grab Salmon.
Every time I write a column…
. . . an Angels gets his wings. I'll take a look at the hottest Angel--fantasy wise--in the last seven days and tell you if he can help your team and where. We might also clip a few wings for those who are performing like Ramon Ortiz, but for now I'm going to leave him and his gopherballs alone. This week, we're pinning some wings on Darin Erstad. Yeah, I know I asked all of you nicely to shy away from DE, saying he could be the least productive full-time 1B in MLB this year. Well, actually I still stand by that, but his line this week looks like this: 6-for-23 (.261), 3 R, 3 SB. It's mainly the swipes which have made him so valuable to fantasy owners this week, but it will continue to be his only strength, and even then only to the tune of 20 or so. You can find those elsewhere.
On Deck
After muddling through two more with Texas, the Halos head away from home for their longest roadie of the year at 9 games. There'll be stops in OAK, DET, and MIN along the way, marking the first games the Angels play outside the AL West. I'm thinking that Anaheim could feast on some Tiger pitching, and although the Twins are hot, they're beat up and they've got guys who are playing above their talent level, which won't last forever. Hopefully they'll be off the hot horse by April 30. The A's series will be fun to watch. The Elephant men will most likely throw Redman and Harden over the weekend, where the Halos will have Escobar and the Meat Machine. As for Game 1 on Friday? Washburn vs. Zito. Should be real fun. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Friday, April 09, 2004
Draft Quick Hits, 4.9.2004
Vladimir Guerrero, OF: Currently going 1st round (4th overall, 2nd OF). YOU take him: This is going to sound like "nonsense from the new guy", but I wouldn't take him if I had the 4th pick. Beltran, Garciaparra, and Ramirez all seem like they would be better picks to me. That he's a first-rounder I'm not disputing, but a top 5? The back questions and the lack of SB (likely a permanent deal now) leave him just out of the top five. Are you going to be disappointed with him though? No way.
Garret Anderson, OF: Currently going round 5-7 (17th OF). YOU take him: That's about right. Garret is a solid 2nd OF for your team, and spending an early round pick like this isn't going to hurt you. His value has fallen recently a little, putting him more in line with where he should probably fall in the draft mix. He'll hit around .300 (but maybe not over) and he's a definite bet for 25 HR and with his last two years being his career best in SLG, you can probably bank on more than that this year. Also, as of today he has no deal for next year. That could factor into his free agent thinking for '05.
Bartolo Colon, P: Currently going round 6-8 (16 SP). YOU take him: Again, that's about the right spot. Colon's certainly in the top 15 starters in MLB and he'd be a great ace for your staff. Pitching in always easier to come by than hitting, but to make an exception here to grab BC wouldn't be a bad move. He's not going to get shelled that often and his depth into games gives him a chance at more Ws (and Ls). Good K rate and his control's at his career best right now. His only weakness--1090 IP the last 5 years. That could really start to take its toll.
Troy Percival, P: Currently going round 7-9 (8 RP). YOU take him: TP's on the way out. Sure, he's had 8 straight years with 25 Svs, and he could do it again, but at 34, with a bad hip, and a K/9 that went from 10.9 in '02 to 8.8 in '03, you've gotta figure his fortune's gonna run out sometime. I'm not necessarily sayin' this is the year (his OBA was still .192 last year, his 3rd straight year under .200), but he's mighty close to crossing the line in the sand from solid closer to "iffy". Don’t take him in the top ten closers based on name recognition. Wait for double digits and snag him if he's still there.
Troy Glaus, 3B: Currently going round 7-9 (5th 3B). YOU take him: Most folks are still bidding on his .284/47/102 season in '00. The 47 HR is more of a reality (although still high) than the .284. Don't bet on Troy hitting over .270 and you won't be disappointed. Troy is not an elite 3B anymore (only Rolen, Lowell, and Chavez qualify there), but he beats out guys like Blalock and Ramirez in sheer power (and he'll run more than both of them put together). He's steadily making more contact each year (his Ks have fallen 4 straight years--last year projected out to another decrease), but for now, I wouldn't expect a huge spike in AVG. Take 5th or take him 7th, it's entirely up to how much faith you have. I'd take him 5th.
Jose Guillen, OF: Currently going round late teens (52nd OF). YOU take him: Jose could go either way right now, and because of the uncertainty, I'd probably take him as a 5th/6th OF with an option to sub in case he goes back to his old stats. He's 27, so the time is now to lay the framework for what remains of his career. I'll tell you with confidence at this stage the .311 AVG of '03 is completely over his head. Guys who K 95 times and BB 24 don't hit .311 over the long haul. The power could be more legit (just like Glaus), but despite the buzz about Oakland, Angel Stadium is even less of a righty's HR park and he just hit 8 in OAK. Bet on almost 20 HR and probably .270 with AVG. There are safer bets.
Adam Kennedy, 2B: Currently going late teens (10th 2B). YOU take him: Assuming you took an elite level 2B earlier in the draft (please do), I'll say that Kennedy is just about the best candidate for your 2B/SS slot in baseball. Even if he's your main guy, you won't be completely disappointed. He gained a truckload of patience last year (going from 19 BB in '02 to 45 BB in '03 and dropping his K from 80 to 73) and if that sticks, his AVG could rise for real this time. The .312 in '02 was a mirage, so a jump this year to, say, .285 with the same patience as last year would be legit. He's got a little pop and a little speed (both legit). Don't get crazy, but Kennedy is a good pick in the 18-20 round range. Take him as early as 8th at 2B.
Darin Erstad, OF: Currently going at clean up time (68th OF). YOU take him: I really wouldn't. He's just got very little to add that you can't find elsewhere with a much greater upside. Yeah, he went .355/25/100 in '00, but if you asked a Magic 8-ball if that were going to happen again, you'd no doubt get something like "Not Very Likely" as your answer. This could be the least productive everyday 1B in the majors this year. Look elsewhere.
Tim Salmon, OF: Currently going at clean up time (80th OF). YOU take him: Now this is an Angel that could actually give you some significant help with a last-round-or-two pick. The power's not what it once was, but his patience is at career-high levels and his SLG took a little spike in the 2nd half last year. He could certainly go .285/20/85 and with a last pick, that ain't bad at all. Funny how his line could look very similar to Guillen's who'll go probably at least five rounds earlier.
Francisco Rodriguez, P: Currently going at clean up time. YOU take him: Clearly he's got talent and will help air condition Angel Stadium throughout the summer, but he's still only 22 and there'll be speed bumps. He's had some pretty good fortune so far, and could certainly give you a cheap win here and there, but don't bank on a sub-3.50 ERA. If you've got the spot, he won't hurt you, but he won't get you many saves either as long as Percival's healthy. If Troy should go down though, he'll get the nod to close because Donnelly won't be 100% for a while, so you'll be glad you had the insurance. All this is wonderful, but like most ESPN drafters, for now I wouldn't roster him.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Garret Anderson, OF: Currently going round 5-7 (17th OF). YOU take him: That's about right. Garret is a solid 2nd OF for your team, and spending an early round pick like this isn't going to hurt you. His value has fallen recently a little, putting him more in line with where he should probably fall in the draft mix. He'll hit around .300 (but maybe not over) and he's a definite bet for 25 HR and with his last two years being his career best in SLG, you can probably bank on more than that this year. Also, as of today he has no deal for next year. That could factor into his free agent thinking for '05.
Bartolo Colon, P: Currently going round 6-8 (16 SP). YOU take him: Again, that's about the right spot. Colon's certainly in the top 15 starters in MLB and he'd be a great ace for your staff. Pitching in always easier to come by than hitting, but to make an exception here to grab BC wouldn't be a bad move. He's not going to get shelled that often and his depth into games gives him a chance at more Ws (and Ls). Good K rate and his control's at his career best right now. His only weakness--1090 IP the last 5 years. That could really start to take its toll.
Troy Percival, P: Currently going round 7-9 (8 RP). YOU take him: TP's on the way out. Sure, he's had 8 straight years with 25 Svs, and he could do it again, but at 34, with a bad hip, and a K/9 that went from 10.9 in '02 to 8.8 in '03, you've gotta figure his fortune's gonna run out sometime. I'm not necessarily sayin' this is the year (his OBA was still .192 last year, his 3rd straight year under .200), but he's mighty close to crossing the line in the sand from solid closer to "iffy". Don’t take him in the top ten closers based on name recognition. Wait for double digits and snag him if he's still there.
Troy Glaus, 3B: Currently going round 7-9 (5th 3B). YOU take him: Most folks are still bidding on his .284/47/102 season in '00. The 47 HR is more of a reality (although still high) than the .284. Don't bet on Troy hitting over .270 and you won't be disappointed. Troy is not an elite 3B anymore (only Rolen, Lowell, and Chavez qualify there), but he beats out guys like Blalock and Ramirez in sheer power (and he'll run more than both of them put together). He's steadily making more contact each year (his Ks have fallen 4 straight years--last year projected out to another decrease), but for now, I wouldn't expect a huge spike in AVG. Take 5th or take him 7th, it's entirely up to how much faith you have. I'd take him 5th.
Jose Guillen, OF: Currently going round late teens (52nd OF). YOU take him: Jose could go either way right now, and because of the uncertainty, I'd probably take him as a 5th/6th OF with an option to sub in case he goes back to his old stats. He's 27, so the time is now to lay the framework for what remains of his career. I'll tell you with confidence at this stage the .311 AVG of '03 is completely over his head. Guys who K 95 times and BB 24 don't hit .311 over the long haul. The power could be more legit (just like Glaus), but despite the buzz about Oakland, Angel Stadium is even less of a righty's HR park and he just hit 8 in OAK. Bet on almost 20 HR and probably .270 with AVG. There are safer bets.
Adam Kennedy, 2B: Currently going late teens (10th 2B). YOU take him: Assuming you took an elite level 2B earlier in the draft (please do), I'll say that Kennedy is just about the best candidate for your 2B/SS slot in baseball. Even if he's your main guy, you won't be completely disappointed. He gained a truckload of patience last year (going from 19 BB in '02 to 45 BB in '03 and dropping his K from 80 to 73) and if that sticks, his AVG could rise for real this time. The .312 in '02 was a mirage, so a jump this year to, say, .285 with the same patience as last year would be legit. He's got a little pop and a little speed (both legit). Don't get crazy, but Kennedy is a good pick in the 18-20 round range. Take him as early as 8th at 2B.
Darin Erstad, OF: Currently going at clean up time (68th OF). YOU take him: I really wouldn't. He's just got very little to add that you can't find elsewhere with a much greater upside. Yeah, he went .355/25/100 in '00, but if you asked a Magic 8-ball if that were going to happen again, you'd no doubt get something like "Not Very Likely" as your answer. This could be the least productive everyday 1B in the majors this year. Look elsewhere.
Tim Salmon, OF: Currently going at clean up time (80th OF). YOU take him: Now this is an Angel that could actually give you some significant help with a last-round-or-two pick. The power's not what it once was, but his patience is at career-high levels and his SLG took a little spike in the 2nd half last year. He could certainly go .285/20/85 and with a last pick, that ain't bad at all. Funny how his line could look very similar to Guillen's who'll go probably at least five rounds earlier.
Francisco Rodriguez, P: Currently going at clean up time. YOU take him: Clearly he's got talent and will help air condition Angel Stadium throughout the summer, but he's still only 22 and there'll be speed bumps. He's had some pretty good fortune so far, and could certainly give you a cheap win here and there, but don't bank on a sub-3.50 ERA. If you've got the spot, he won't hurt you, but he won't get you many saves either as long as Percival's healthy. If Troy should go down though, he'll get the nod to close because Donnelly won't be 100% for a while, so you'll be glad you had the insurance. All this is wonderful, but like most ESPN drafters, for now I wouldn't roster him.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Tuesday, April 06, 2004
ITH Fantasy Halos
Each week, ITH awards a silver halo to the Angel player who was most valuable to fantasy teams. A golden one is given to each month's MVP, and a platinum halo will be awarded to the season MVP. Sure, they're fake and non-existent, but what's the harm in having a little fun?
So far this season, it breaks down as follows:
Silver
Vladimir Guerrero: 4
Garret Anderson: 3
Jose Guillen: 3
Chone Figgins: 2
Aaron Sele: 2
Darin Erstad: 2
Bartolo Colon: 2
Kelvim Escobar: 1
John Lackey: 1
Gold
April: Troy Glaus
May: Jose Guillen
June: Vladimir Guerrero
July: John Lackey
ITH would love to hear your thoughts weekly, monthly, and for the year on who should receive their Halos at insidethehalo@insightbb.com.
So far this season, it breaks down as follows:
Silver
Vladimir Guerrero: 4
Garret Anderson: 3
Jose Guillen: 3
Chone Figgins: 2
Aaron Sele: 2
Darin Erstad: 2
Bartolo Colon: 2
Kelvim Escobar: 1
John Lackey: 1
Gold
April: Troy Glaus
May: Jose Guillen
June: Vladimir Guerrero
July: John Lackey
ITH would love to hear your thoughts weekly, monthly, and for the year on who should receive their Halos at insidethehalo@insightbb.com.
Friday, April 02, 2004
Regular Season is Here/Infield Preview
Headin' North
The Angels wrapped up the Cactus League with a 16-13-1 record (as if that matters). What does matter is that Ramon Ortiz has been given the 5 hole in the rotation that we discussed last time. I'm glad it wasn't Sele, but I'm not glad it was Ortiz either. I've been getting e-mail from some folks in CA who hold RO much nearer and dearer than I do, but their praise hasn't lifted my hopes or expectations for Ortiz. Pitching coach Bud Black said that he sees no reason why RO can't be a 15-16 game winner again, according to the LA Daily News. My statement would've been that I can see one reason--only one reason. Run support. Sele now makes 8.5 mil to be the long man in the pen. I do suppose that's better than the 11.7 mil the Angels are paying Kevin Appier in '04 to pitch for the Royals.
From the "Halos Hurt" deparment, Bengie Molina left the game Wednesday with more hammy problems. Scioscia says he may sit over the weekend against LA but will play Tuesday against Seattle to open the season. He's fought and won these battles before, but keep an eye on this. I think Bengie could help you out if you're weak at C and he's healthy. Also, Brendan Donnelly could be out a while, as short as next weekend, as long as June. I would expect something in between, but maybe closer to the June mark. Let's hope it's not too long. Finally, when the cut to 25 finally comes--and it's required by Sunday--I'll let you know who stayed and went and what it all means. For now, as promised, let's go around the horn to Darin Erstad.
Darin Erstad, 1B
His 2000 line looked like this: .355/25/100, 121 R/28 SB (You just knew I was going to reference that, didn't you?). In '04, people are wondering whether to roster him at all. Is there any chance of him posting numbers like he did before? Does the change to 1B mean anything? No and not much. He hasn't slugged over .400 since '00, and his OBP hasn't topped .325. He hits way too many ground balls to hit more than 10 HRs, but the power's gone anyway. Will he still run? Yeah, maybe, if he's healthy (right now he is). So--what to do? He'll keep his OF eligibility all year, so he could help you with a little speed, but that's it. I'm surprised that 33% of people in ESPN leagues have wasted the space. Here's a prediction--this could be the least productive full-time 1B in MLB in '04.
Adam Kennedy, 2B
Last time, I talked about one major problem in the Angels infield. Well, now we're past it (Erstad) and from here, things get better. Kennedy is just one year removed from a team-leading .312 AVG (.269 in '03). While he won't see .312 in '04, I would expect him to make lasting changes in a positive direction to his AVG if he continues the patience he showed in '03 (73 K, 45 BB), which was the best of his career. He'll bat 9th so don't count on RBI, but the improved offense will probably boost his R (71 in '03). SBs have been consistent and will remain so. Maybe the biggest question is whether he can continue his upward HR trend. AK's a flyball hitter, so that's positive but I'd bet on 10 with the knowledge that it could be more. He's maybe the best choice for the 2B/SS spot in MLB.
David Eckstein, SS
Eckstein is known it seems league-wide as the guy who looks the least like a MLB player every time he takes the field. How does he manage to get the job done? Can he help you at all on your team? Yeah, I think he can. It'll be marginal, but sometimes those marginal players make all the difference. He's got speed and will help there (like Kennedy) and batting at the top of this order will certainly score some runs if he can just get on base. Last year's AVG was down big, but that was ruined by a .236 first half. He was normal after the break (.280). Expect that AVG and maybe a little higher. As for SB, that's the Halos' game. Expect him (and Erstad and Kennedy) to run, even with the new bats in the lineup. Expecting 20 swipes would not be ridiculous at all.
Troy Glaus, 3B
Here's where I smile. Glaus hit 47 HR in '00, 41 in '01, but many people think that after 30 in '02, and 16 in '03 (projected to 29 full season), his power will continue to fall. Will it? I say no. Mid-to-upper 30s wouldn't be outta the question, because his SLG was rebounding last year before the break (.490 up from .453 in' 02). His '03 K numbers projected to be his lowest in his career, while his BBs stayed pretty stable. He's making more contact, which should bring his AVG up--a little. I'd expect around .260 instead of the normal .250. His SBs could also be their highest (around 12-15). He'll bat fifth in a loaded order, so simply put, his value is probably as low as its going to be for a long while, so get him now at a position that's the shallowest in FLB this year.
On Deck
Next time we'll wrap up the previews with the guys who roam the grass, who may be the best group in the AL (especially as long as Nixon is out in BOS). Also, the Draft Quick Hits are updated at Inside the Halo (http://angelsflb.blogspot.com). The e-mail is angelsflb@insightbb.com if you need it. I'm pumped for the regular season--it's almost here. Colon will face Jamie Moyer on Tuesday at Safeco Park to open the '04 campaign. So grab your hat, bat, and glove and let's get on the road to the World Series. The NBA and NHL may be headed into the playoffs and the Final Four starts tomorrow, but in just a few days, baseball fans will remember why a long fly ball in the bottom of the ninth is still the most beautiful thing in sports. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
The Angels wrapped up the Cactus League with a 16-13-1 record (as if that matters). What does matter is that Ramon Ortiz has been given the 5 hole in the rotation that we discussed last time. I'm glad it wasn't Sele, but I'm not glad it was Ortiz either. I've been getting e-mail from some folks in CA who hold RO much nearer and dearer than I do, but their praise hasn't lifted my hopes or expectations for Ortiz. Pitching coach Bud Black said that he sees no reason why RO can't be a 15-16 game winner again, according to the LA Daily News. My statement would've been that I can see one reason--only one reason. Run support. Sele now makes 8.5 mil to be the long man in the pen. I do suppose that's better than the 11.7 mil the Angels are paying Kevin Appier in '04 to pitch for the Royals.
From the "Halos Hurt" deparment, Bengie Molina left the game Wednesday with more hammy problems. Scioscia says he may sit over the weekend against LA but will play Tuesday against Seattle to open the season. He's fought and won these battles before, but keep an eye on this. I think Bengie could help you out if you're weak at C and he's healthy. Also, Brendan Donnelly could be out a while, as short as next weekend, as long as June. I would expect something in between, but maybe closer to the June mark. Let's hope it's not too long. Finally, when the cut to 25 finally comes--and it's required by Sunday--I'll let you know who stayed and went and what it all means. For now, as promised, let's go around the horn to Darin Erstad.
Darin Erstad, 1B
His 2000 line looked like this: .355/25/100, 121 R/28 SB (You just knew I was going to reference that, didn't you?). In '04, people are wondering whether to roster him at all. Is there any chance of him posting numbers like he did before? Does the change to 1B mean anything? No and not much. He hasn't slugged over .400 since '00, and his OBP hasn't topped .325. He hits way too many ground balls to hit more than 10 HRs, but the power's gone anyway. Will he still run? Yeah, maybe, if he's healthy (right now he is). So--what to do? He'll keep his OF eligibility all year, so he could help you with a little speed, but that's it. I'm surprised that 33% of people in ESPN leagues have wasted the space. Here's a prediction--this could be the least productive full-time 1B in MLB in '04.
Adam Kennedy, 2B
Last time, I talked about one major problem in the Angels infield. Well, now we're past it (Erstad) and from here, things get better. Kennedy is just one year removed from a team-leading .312 AVG (.269 in '03). While he won't see .312 in '04, I would expect him to make lasting changes in a positive direction to his AVG if he continues the patience he showed in '03 (73 K, 45 BB), which was the best of his career. He'll bat 9th so don't count on RBI, but the improved offense will probably boost his R (71 in '03). SBs have been consistent and will remain so. Maybe the biggest question is whether he can continue his upward HR trend. AK's a flyball hitter, so that's positive but I'd bet on 10 with the knowledge that it could be more. He's maybe the best choice for the 2B/SS spot in MLB.
David Eckstein, SS
Eckstein is known it seems league-wide as the guy who looks the least like a MLB player every time he takes the field. How does he manage to get the job done? Can he help you at all on your team? Yeah, I think he can. It'll be marginal, but sometimes those marginal players make all the difference. He's got speed and will help there (like Kennedy) and batting at the top of this order will certainly score some runs if he can just get on base. Last year's AVG was down big, but that was ruined by a .236 first half. He was normal after the break (.280). Expect that AVG and maybe a little higher. As for SB, that's the Halos' game. Expect him (and Erstad and Kennedy) to run, even with the new bats in the lineup. Expecting 20 swipes would not be ridiculous at all.
Troy Glaus, 3B
Here's where I smile. Glaus hit 47 HR in '00, 41 in '01, but many people think that after 30 in '02, and 16 in '03 (projected to 29 full season), his power will continue to fall. Will it? I say no. Mid-to-upper 30s wouldn't be outta the question, because his SLG was rebounding last year before the break (.490 up from .453 in' 02). His '03 K numbers projected to be his lowest in his career, while his BBs stayed pretty stable. He's making more contact, which should bring his AVG up--a little. I'd expect around .260 instead of the normal .250. His SBs could also be their highest (around 12-15). He'll bat fifth in a loaded order, so simply put, his value is probably as low as its going to be for a long while, so get him now at a position that's the shallowest in FLB this year.
On Deck
Next time we'll wrap up the previews with the guys who roam the grass, who may be the best group in the AL (especially as long as Nixon is out in BOS). Also, the Draft Quick Hits are updated at Inside the Halo (http://angelsflb.blogspot.com). The e-mail is angelsflb@insightbb.com if you need it. I'm pumped for the regular season--it's almost here. Colon will face Jamie Moyer on Tuesday at Safeco Park to open the '04 campaign. So grab your hat, bat, and glove and let's get on the road to the World Series. The NBA and NHL may be headed into the playoffs and the Final Four starts tomorrow, but in just a few days, baseball fans will remember why a long fly ball in the bottom of the ninth is still the most beautiful thing in sports. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Draft Quick Hits, 4.2.2004
Vladimir Guerrero, OF: Currently going 1st round (4th overall, 2nd OF). YOU take him: This is going to sound like "nonsense from the new guy", but I wouldn't take him if I had the 4th pick. Beltran, Garciaparra, and Ramirez all seem like they would be better picks to me. That he's a first-rounder I'm not disputing, but a top 5? The back questions and the lack of SB (likely a permanent deal now) leave him just out of the top five. Are you going to be disappointed with him though? No way.
Garret Anderson, OF: Currently going round 5-7 (17th OF). YOU take him: That's about right. Garret is a solid 2nd OF for your team, and spending an early round pick like this isn't going to hurt you. His value has fallen recently a little, putting him more in line with where he should probably fall in the draft mix. He'll hit around .300 (but maybe not over) and he's a definite bet for 25 HR and with his last two years being his career best in SLG, you can probably bank on more than that this year. Also, as of today he has no deal for next year. That could factor into his free agent thinking for '05.
Bartolo Colon, P: Currently going round 6-8 (16 SP). YOU take him: Again, that's about the right spot. Colon's certainly in the top 15 starters in MLB and he'd be a great ace for your staff. Pitching in always easier to come by than hitting, but to make an exception here to grab BC wouldn't be a bad move. He's not going to get shelled that often and his depth into games gives him a chance at more Ws (and Ls). Good K rate and his control's at his career best right now. His only weakness--1090 IP the last 5 years. That could really start to take its toll.
Troy Percival, P: Currently going round 7-9 (8 RP). YOU take him: TP's on the way out. Sure, he's had 8 straight years with 25 Svs, and he could do it again, but at 34, with a bad hip, and a K/9 that went from 10.9 in '02 to 8.8 in '03, you've gotta figure his fortune's gonna run out sometime. I'm not necessarily sayin' this is the year (his OBA was still .192 last year, his 3rd straight year under .200), but he's mighty close to crossing the line in the sand from solid closer to "iffy". Don’t take him in the top ten closers based on name recognition. Wait for double digits and snag him if he's still there.
Troy Glaus, 3B: Currently going round 7-9 (5th 3B). YOU take him: Most folks are still bidding on his .284/47/102 season in '00. The 47 HR is more of a reality (although still high) than the .284. Don't bet on Troy hitting over .270 and you won't be disappointed. Troy is not an elite 3B anymore (only Rolen, Lowell, and Chavez qualify there), but he beats out guys like Blalock and Ramirez in sheer power (and he'll run more than both of them put together). He's steadily making more contact each year (his Ks have fallen 4 straight years--last year projected out to another decrease), but for now, I wouldn't expect a huge spike in AVG. Take 5th or take him 7th, it's entirely up to how much faith you have. I'd take him 5th.
Jose Guillen, OF: Currently going round late teens (52nd OF). YOU take him: Jose could go either way right now, and because of the uncertainty, I'd probably take him as a 5th/6th OF with an option to sub in case he goes back to his old stats. He's 27, so the time is now to lay the framework for what remains of his career. I'll tell you with confidence at this stage the .311 AVG of '03 is completely over his head. Guys who K 95 times and BB 24 don't hit .311 over the long haul. The power could be more legit (just like Glaus), but despite the buzz about Oakland, Angel Stadium is even less of a righty's HR park and he just hit 8 in OAK. Bet on almost 20 HR and probably .270 with AVG. There are safer bets.
Adam Kennedy, 2B: Currently going late teens (10th 2B). YOU take him: Assuming you took an elite level 2B earlier in the draft (please do), I'll say that Kennedy is just about the best candidate for your 2B/SS slot in baseball. Even if he's your main guy, you won't be completely disappointed. He gained a truckload of patience last year (going from 19 BB in '02 to 45 BB in '03 and dropping his K from 80 to 73) and if that sticks, his AVG could rise for real this time. The .312 in '02 was a mirage, so a jump this year to, say, .285 with the same patience as last year would be legit. He's got a little pop and a little speed (both legit). Don't get crazy, but Kennedy is a good pick in the 18-20 round range. Take him as early as 8th at 2B.
Darin Erstad, OF: Currently going at clean up time (68th OF). YOU take him: I really wouldn't. He's just got very little to add that you can't find elsewhere with a much greater upside. Yeah, he went .355/25/100 in '00, but if you asked a Magic 8-ball if that were going to happen again, you'd no doubt get something like "Not Very Likely" as your answer. This could be the least productive everyday 1B in the majors this year. Look elsewhere.
Tim Salmon, OF: Currently going at clean up time (80th OF). YOU take him: Now this is an Angel that could actually give you some significant help with a last-round-or-two pick. The power's not what it once was, but his patience is at career-high levels and his SLG took a little spike in the 2nd half last year. He could certainly go .285/20/85 and with a last pick, that ain't bad at all. Funny how his line could look very similar to Guillen's who'll go probably at least five rounds earlier.
Francisco Rodriguez, P: Currently going at clean up time. YOU take him: Clearly he's got talent and will help air condition Angel Stadium throughout the summer, but he's still only 22 and there'll be speed bumps. He's had some pretty good fortune so far, and could certainly give you a cheap win here and there, but don't bank on a sub-3.50 ERA. If you've got the spot, he won't hurt you, but he won't get you many saves either as long as Percival's healthy. If Troy should go down though, he'll get the nod to close because Donnelly won't be 100% for a while, so you'll be glad you had the insurance. All this is wonderful, but like most ESPN drafters, for now I wouldn't roster him.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Garret Anderson, OF: Currently going round 5-7 (17th OF). YOU take him: That's about right. Garret is a solid 2nd OF for your team, and spending an early round pick like this isn't going to hurt you. His value has fallen recently a little, putting him more in line with where he should probably fall in the draft mix. He'll hit around .300 (but maybe not over) and he's a definite bet for 25 HR and with his last two years being his career best in SLG, you can probably bank on more than that this year. Also, as of today he has no deal for next year. That could factor into his free agent thinking for '05.
Bartolo Colon, P: Currently going round 6-8 (16 SP). YOU take him: Again, that's about the right spot. Colon's certainly in the top 15 starters in MLB and he'd be a great ace for your staff. Pitching in always easier to come by than hitting, but to make an exception here to grab BC wouldn't be a bad move. He's not going to get shelled that often and his depth into games gives him a chance at more Ws (and Ls). Good K rate and his control's at his career best right now. His only weakness--1090 IP the last 5 years. That could really start to take its toll.
Troy Percival, P: Currently going round 7-9 (8 RP). YOU take him: TP's on the way out. Sure, he's had 8 straight years with 25 Svs, and he could do it again, but at 34, with a bad hip, and a K/9 that went from 10.9 in '02 to 8.8 in '03, you've gotta figure his fortune's gonna run out sometime. I'm not necessarily sayin' this is the year (his OBA was still .192 last year, his 3rd straight year under .200), but he's mighty close to crossing the line in the sand from solid closer to "iffy". Don’t take him in the top ten closers based on name recognition. Wait for double digits and snag him if he's still there.
Troy Glaus, 3B: Currently going round 7-9 (5th 3B). YOU take him: Most folks are still bidding on his .284/47/102 season in '00. The 47 HR is more of a reality (although still high) than the .284. Don't bet on Troy hitting over .270 and you won't be disappointed. Troy is not an elite 3B anymore (only Rolen, Lowell, and Chavez qualify there), but he beats out guys like Blalock and Ramirez in sheer power (and he'll run more than both of them put together). He's steadily making more contact each year (his Ks have fallen 4 straight years--last year projected out to another decrease), but for now, I wouldn't expect a huge spike in AVG. Take 5th or take him 7th, it's entirely up to how much faith you have. I'd take him 5th.
Jose Guillen, OF: Currently going round late teens (52nd OF). YOU take him: Jose could go either way right now, and because of the uncertainty, I'd probably take him as a 5th/6th OF with an option to sub in case he goes back to his old stats. He's 27, so the time is now to lay the framework for what remains of his career. I'll tell you with confidence at this stage the .311 AVG of '03 is completely over his head. Guys who K 95 times and BB 24 don't hit .311 over the long haul. The power could be more legit (just like Glaus), but despite the buzz about Oakland, Angel Stadium is even less of a righty's HR park and he just hit 8 in OAK. Bet on almost 20 HR and probably .270 with AVG. There are safer bets.
Adam Kennedy, 2B: Currently going late teens (10th 2B). YOU take him: Assuming you took an elite level 2B earlier in the draft (please do), I'll say that Kennedy is just about the best candidate for your 2B/SS slot in baseball. Even if he's your main guy, you won't be completely disappointed. He gained a truckload of patience last year (going from 19 BB in '02 to 45 BB in '03 and dropping his K from 80 to 73) and if that sticks, his AVG could rise for real this time. The .312 in '02 was a mirage, so a jump this year to, say, .285 with the same patience as last year would be legit. He's got a little pop and a little speed (both legit). Don't get crazy, but Kennedy is a good pick in the 18-20 round range. Take him as early as 8th at 2B.
Darin Erstad, OF: Currently going at clean up time (68th OF). YOU take him: I really wouldn't. He's just got very little to add that you can't find elsewhere with a much greater upside. Yeah, he went .355/25/100 in '00, but if you asked a Magic 8-ball if that were going to happen again, you'd no doubt get something like "Not Very Likely" as your answer. This could be the least productive everyday 1B in the majors this year. Look elsewhere.
Tim Salmon, OF: Currently going at clean up time (80th OF). YOU take him: Now this is an Angel that could actually give you some significant help with a last-round-or-two pick. The power's not what it once was, but his patience is at career-high levels and his SLG took a little spike in the 2nd half last year. He could certainly go .285/20/85 and with a last pick, that ain't bad at all. Funny how his line could look very similar to Guillen's who'll go probably at least five rounds earlier.
Francisco Rodriguez, P: Currently going at clean up time. YOU take him: Clearly he's got talent and will help air condition Angel Stadium throughout the summer, but he's still only 22 and there'll be speed bumps. He's had some pretty good fortune so far, and could certainly give you a cheap win here and there, but don't bank on a sub-3.50 ERA. If you've got the spot, he won't hurt you, but he won't get you many saves either as long as Percival's healthy. If Troy should go down though, he'll get the nod to close because Donnelly won't be 100% for a while, so you'll be glad you had the insurance. All this is wonderful, but like most ESPN drafters, for now I wouldn't roster him.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
