Monday, March 29, 2004
Merry Baseball/Rotation Preview
Opening Eve
Where you one of those kids who got up at the crack of dawn and rushed down the stairs to see what was under the tree for you on Christmas morning? Wait a minute--weren't we all? Well, that sacred baseball holiday, Opening Day, is upon us, and the players are penciled in the lineups with care, hoping a trip to the World Series will soon be there. Our fun begins early Tuesday morning, when we can rush to the television and see what MLB has in store for us in 2004 when the AL Champion New York Yankees take on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at 5:05 ET on ESPN2. Visions of mammoth home runs will be dancing in my head tonight and let me say I can't wait to open my present--the regular season--tomorrow morning. Are you getting up early too?
The Rotation--Bartolo Colon
Every rotation needs a workhorse for its ace. The Angels have one. Bartolo Colon has finished in the top 10 in IP the last 3 seasons in the AL (adding his MON totals w/ his CLE totals in 2002). BC goes deep often, and it shows with his 82 decisions in the past 3 years (49 W). At 30, he's established, he's strong, and he's low risk. He's one of the top 20 starters in baseball, top 10 in the AL. He's gonna give you an ERA under 4 (maybe closer to 3) and his declining k/9 took a step back up in '03 without affecting his always superb control. With the Angels offense he has behind him, I'd expect Colon to hit 15 W's easy, maybe closing in on the big 2-0. As long as he keeps it in the park (and Angel Stadium is the best pitcher's park he's ever called home), he'll be great this year.
Jarrod Washburn
At #2, Washburn looks to rebound from his worst season on the hill. He won 18 games in '02 with an ERA of almost 3 flat (3.15). Can we expect a rebound this year? Watch two things: Ks and HRs. In '02, he posted a 6.1 k/9 rate, which was just below league average. Last year--5.1. Doesn't sound like big drop, but it is. He can maybe get away with striking out less because of his excellent control, but he's got to fan more than five per nine. Also, last year he allowed homer-and-a-half per 9 (read: awful) where in '02, it was less than one a start. He's got to keep it this side of the fence in '04 to be effective. My guess? Forget the 3 ERA. He's got to fan closer to his '02 totals before he'll sniff even a 3-something. The Ws could return though with the run support.
Kelvim Escobar
Of all the Angels starters, he's the only one I saw throw live last year, and let me tell ya, he can be flat sick. There's no question he's got the talent and the stuff. Last year he returned to the rotation after spending '02 in the pen. As a starter last year, he went 12-8 and posted a sub-4 ERA. This year he'll do it again with one caveat--2002 IP=78. 2003=180. That's a huge jump. His first and second half stats were a lot alike (ERA 4.30 both halves, WHIP decreased 0.01 in 2nd half), and he actually went 8-4 after the break. Where's the problem? He struck out almost 3 batters less per 9, while increasing his bb/9 to 4. That's definitely a sign of tiring out. He's been in the rotation before, so that's a plus, but to ignore those 2nd half realities in '03 would be dangerous.
John Lackey
Let's face it--John Lackey was definitely found lacking in his first full year on the mound. Some raw data: 10-16, 4.63 ERA, 1.42 WHIP in '03. Not for real then? Not so fast. Lackey improved over the course of his first full season (2nd half ERA=3.47). He's striking out more hitters per 9 now than he was in the minors. That's certainly something to note, considering numbers like that usually go the other way when advancing a level. His control is superb (a trend for this rotation), and his only weakness last year was really a tendency to give up the long ball (another trend in this rotation). He's only 25, and if he continues to grow, he'll turn into the pitcher that people thought he was during late '02. My guess--Lackey won't be lacking that much longer.
The 5 Hole
I'm calling this spot the five hole because whoever ends up with it doesn't deserve to have their name on it. The two candidates? Ramon Ortiz and Aaron Sele. Ortiz posted a 5.20 ERA last year and Sele a 5.79. Ortiz gives out HRs like they're breath mints and has for 5 years. He's not overpowering and his OBA was .292 in '03. How did he win 16 then? Try 6.35 run support, 4th in AL, 9th in MLB. Sele looked terrible last year, and while he was battling injury, his k/9 has fallen 5 straight years and his hr/9 has risen for 4 straight. Now, I'm not Emeril, but that's a recipe for disaster. Add the fact that he BBed more than he Ked over 121 IP last year and I'd steer clear if I was Scioscia. Who should get the spot then? I'll tell ya who. Scot Shields. Will he? Not anytime soon.
Inside the Halo
For the interest of continuing at a rate that will get us caught up for the regular season, I'll cover the bullpen and the backstops at Inside the Halo at http://angelsflb.blogspot.com. In short, Percival's the closer, but he's on the way out, Brendan Donnelly is out with a potentially serious nose problem, and K-Rod could be looking at a much higher ERA this year. Next time, we'll go around the horn in the infield--and I'll tell ya it looks really good, expect for one major thing. For now, though, I've gotta go set out my milk and cookies the Yanks and D-Rays. I'm hoping Posada gives me a couple dingers as a stocking stuffer to get me started out right in the correspondent's league. Merry Baseball to all, and to all a good night. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Where you one of those kids who got up at the crack of dawn and rushed down the stairs to see what was under the tree for you on Christmas morning? Wait a minute--weren't we all? Well, that sacred baseball holiday, Opening Day, is upon us, and the players are penciled in the lineups with care, hoping a trip to the World Series will soon be there. Our fun begins early Tuesday morning, when we can rush to the television and see what MLB has in store for us in 2004 when the AL Champion New York Yankees take on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at 5:05 ET on ESPN2. Visions of mammoth home runs will be dancing in my head tonight and let me say I can't wait to open my present--the regular season--tomorrow morning. Are you getting up early too?
The Rotation--Bartolo Colon
Every rotation needs a workhorse for its ace. The Angels have one. Bartolo Colon has finished in the top 10 in IP the last 3 seasons in the AL (adding his MON totals w/ his CLE totals in 2002). BC goes deep often, and it shows with his 82 decisions in the past 3 years (49 W). At 30, he's established, he's strong, and he's low risk. He's one of the top 20 starters in baseball, top 10 in the AL. He's gonna give you an ERA under 4 (maybe closer to 3) and his declining k/9 took a step back up in '03 without affecting his always superb control. With the Angels offense he has behind him, I'd expect Colon to hit 15 W's easy, maybe closing in on the big 2-0. As long as he keeps it in the park (and Angel Stadium is the best pitcher's park he's ever called home), he'll be great this year.
Jarrod Washburn
At #2, Washburn looks to rebound from his worst season on the hill. He won 18 games in '02 with an ERA of almost 3 flat (3.15). Can we expect a rebound this year? Watch two things: Ks and HRs. In '02, he posted a 6.1 k/9 rate, which was just below league average. Last year--5.1. Doesn't sound like big drop, but it is. He can maybe get away with striking out less because of his excellent control, but he's got to fan more than five per nine. Also, last year he allowed homer-and-a-half per 9 (read: awful) where in '02, it was less than one a start. He's got to keep it this side of the fence in '04 to be effective. My guess? Forget the 3 ERA. He's got to fan closer to his '02 totals before he'll sniff even a 3-something. The Ws could return though with the run support.
Kelvim Escobar
Of all the Angels starters, he's the only one I saw throw live last year, and let me tell ya, he can be flat sick. There's no question he's got the talent and the stuff. Last year he returned to the rotation after spending '02 in the pen. As a starter last year, he went 12-8 and posted a sub-4 ERA. This year he'll do it again with one caveat--2002 IP=78. 2003=180. That's a huge jump. His first and second half stats were a lot alike (ERA 4.30 both halves, WHIP decreased 0.01 in 2nd half), and he actually went 8-4 after the break. Where's the problem? He struck out almost 3 batters less per 9, while increasing his bb/9 to 4. That's definitely a sign of tiring out. He's been in the rotation before, so that's a plus, but to ignore those 2nd half realities in '03 would be dangerous.
John Lackey
Let's face it--John Lackey was definitely found lacking in his first full year on the mound. Some raw data: 10-16, 4.63 ERA, 1.42 WHIP in '03. Not for real then? Not so fast. Lackey improved over the course of his first full season (2nd half ERA=3.47). He's striking out more hitters per 9 now than he was in the minors. That's certainly something to note, considering numbers like that usually go the other way when advancing a level. His control is superb (a trend for this rotation), and his only weakness last year was really a tendency to give up the long ball (another trend in this rotation). He's only 25, and if he continues to grow, he'll turn into the pitcher that people thought he was during late '02. My guess--Lackey won't be lacking that much longer.
The 5 Hole
I'm calling this spot the five hole because whoever ends up with it doesn't deserve to have their name on it. The two candidates? Ramon Ortiz and Aaron Sele. Ortiz posted a 5.20 ERA last year and Sele a 5.79. Ortiz gives out HRs like they're breath mints and has for 5 years. He's not overpowering and his OBA was .292 in '03. How did he win 16 then? Try 6.35 run support, 4th in AL, 9th in MLB. Sele looked terrible last year, and while he was battling injury, his k/9 has fallen 5 straight years and his hr/9 has risen for 4 straight. Now, I'm not Emeril, but that's a recipe for disaster. Add the fact that he BBed more than he Ked over 121 IP last year and I'd steer clear if I was Scioscia. Who should get the spot then? I'll tell ya who. Scot Shields. Will he? Not anytime soon.
Inside the Halo
For the interest of continuing at a rate that will get us caught up for the regular season, I'll cover the bullpen and the backstops at Inside the Halo at http://angelsflb.blogspot.com. In short, Percival's the closer, but he's on the way out, Brendan Donnelly is out with a potentially serious nose problem, and K-Rod could be looking at a much higher ERA this year. Next time, we'll go around the horn in the infield--and I'll tell ya it looks really good, expect for one major thing. For now, though, I've gotta go set out my milk and cookies the Yanks and D-Rays. I'm hoping Posada gives me a couple dingers as a stocking stuffer to get me started out right in the correspondent's league. Merry Baseball to all, and to all a good night. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
