Saturday, July 02, 2005
Mid-Terms
Good morning, class! Don't freak out, student readers--this isn't a pop quiz. However, for the Halos, the completion of the weekend set against Kansas City will officially mark the halfway point for the 2005 regular season. Right now, as a team, the Angels hold a pretty commanding 6.5 game lead over Chuck Norris and his Texas Rangers. Individually speaking (which is why you're here), there are some Angels that could be accused of using a crib sheet to fool fantasy owners at mid-terms. Conversely, some Halos are standing out in this year's class and continue to be ignored (and passing notes or checking out the pretty girl in class is no excuse, fantasy owners!). We've also got several players skipping this session because of an appointment with the nurse (we'll get to them later).
John Lackey
I don't get it. I really don't. I've banged and banged on my keyboard this year, trying to get owners to listen and be a part of John Lackey's solid season. Nothing. I said draft him. Few of you did. I've said pick him up, make him a trade target--I'll get a few e-mails agreeing with me and thanking me. For the most part, this is what I get in response to Lackey--"Yeah, but he's just not putting it together. He just can't get over the hump." Oh, really? 16 starts, 98.1 IP, 6-2 record, 3.84 ERA--and 64% owned in mixed leagues. Are you kidding me? Do you know how many AL starters currently have a higher K/9 in '05 than John Lackey? One. Last year's Cy Young, Johan Santana. Why over 1/3 of owners want to continue to miss out on his production is beyond me.
Brendan Donnelly
What--Mr. Pine Tar? Mr. 8 Game Suspension? You bet. There's never been a better time to get him. That kind of pub is what (for some reason) fantasy owners always respond to. BD's only owned in 3% of mixed leagues (89%) AL, but those have gone down since his infamous brush with baseball law. But do you know what those Donnelly bailers missed? 2 wins, 8 K, 1.13 ERA, 0.63 WHIP in 8 IP of superb work. The season ERA is 3.65, but you take out 2 bad outings in early June and it's 2.25. He's got 6 wins, which is more than Carl Pavano, Brad Radke, and Barry Zito--all of whom are above 85% owned. Here's another perfect example of obvious production being almost universally missed by fantasy owners who don't know where to look.
Adam Kennedy
Kennedy has been absolutely tearing the cover off the ball for the last month, completing a .444 June with 13 RBI and 4 SB. He's been doing it with little to no power though, with only 6 of his 36 hits in June going for extra bases. Slap-hitting isn't necessarily bad though when you're hitting for an average like AK's. Sadly, though, while he could still wind up on the north side of .300 for the year (although I'm not convinced), his .345 average won't hold. He's got a 47% hit rate, and that just won't hold up over the long term despite the excellent contact he made in June (93%). I mentioned this before and I suppose I'll have to say it again--Kennedy could either be used to fill an injury gap for you and would be pretty good trade bait with his current high value.
Jarrod Washburn
Most inexperienced owners see the 3.21 ERA, the 4 decent wins, and the fact that he's on a winning team and think, "I could really make some noise with this Washburn guy." No, you won't. AL owners should be looking to deal him yesterday. That ERA is going to rise, especially considering his K/9 is an atrocious 4.6. Add in a 1.73 K/BB and a 82% strand rate (rate of runners allowed on base that didn't score), and you've got upcoming ERA spike. Don't say I didn't warn you. With a more normal 72% strand rate, his ERA would be 4.37. I can't stress highly enough for AL owners--the time is now to get rid of Wash. The spike could come in the very next start. Wash isn't a guy who has "name" value, you have to deal when the numbers are good. That means now.
Mending Wings: A Fond Adieu to Kelvim
Steve Finley, according to the team site, is shagging balls and running the bases. He should be activated on schedule (7.6). Dallas McPherson (groin) and Bengie Molina (stomach) are day-to-day. Orlando Cabrera is also day-to-day, but he's not doing anything baseball-related right now, so his return could take a little bit. He could be a decent bet to be DLed. Most notably since last time, Kelvim Escobar opted for surgery on the bone spur in his elbow. He most likely won't be back until at least late August and possibly September. Given the time off involved and the lack of games remaining when he does resurface, I sadly have to say it's time to waive bye-bye to Kelvim for '05. Don't forget him come next year--this year's injury shouldn't reduce his top-level status for 2006.
Around the Halo
Juan Rivera his .341 in 41 ABs in June and has filled in nicely during the injury to Finley. It will be interesting to see if his ABs are increased when Finley returns. Jeff DaVanon owners keep watch. That’s who would lose the most PT. Don't worry about Jake Woods' 2 IP, 6 ER, 3 HR performance against TEX Thursday. The Rangers were just locked in. Don't be fooled by his inflated 4.10 ERA now. It's 2.22 without those 2 IP. Boy, Ervin Santana is going to be really good--but not yet. Paul Byrd is pitching the best he has all year and considering that he won't hurt you (only horrible start was 4.23 vs. OAK), he might be worth taking a look at for those of you who are looking for a little extra pitching. Stay cool, readers, but enjoy that sunshine. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
John Lackey
I don't get it. I really don't. I've banged and banged on my keyboard this year, trying to get owners to listen and be a part of John Lackey's solid season. Nothing. I said draft him. Few of you did. I've said pick him up, make him a trade target--I'll get a few e-mails agreeing with me and thanking me. For the most part, this is what I get in response to Lackey--"Yeah, but he's just not putting it together. He just can't get over the hump." Oh, really? 16 starts, 98.1 IP, 6-2 record, 3.84 ERA--and 64% owned in mixed leagues. Are you kidding me? Do you know how many AL starters currently have a higher K/9 in '05 than John Lackey? One. Last year's Cy Young, Johan Santana. Why over 1/3 of owners want to continue to miss out on his production is beyond me.
Brendan Donnelly
What--Mr. Pine Tar? Mr. 8 Game Suspension? You bet. There's never been a better time to get him. That kind of pub is what (for some reason) fantasy owners always respond to. BD's only owned in 3% of mixed leagues (89%) AL, but those have gone down since his infamous brush with baseball law. But do you know what those Donnelly bailers missed? 2 wins, 8 K, 1.13 ERA, 0.63 WHIP in 8 IP of superb work. The season ERA is 3.65, but you take out 2 bad outings in early June and it's 2.25. He's got 6 wins, which is more than Carl Pavano, Brad Radke, and Barry Zito--all of whom are above 85% owned. Here's another perfect example of obvious production being almost universally missed by fantasy owners who don't know where to look.
Adam Kennedy
Kennedy has been absolutely tearing the cover off the ball for the last month, completing a .444 June with 13 RBI and 4 SB. He's been doing it with little to no power though, with only 6 of his 36 hits in June going for extra bases. Slap-hitting isn't necessarily bad though when you're hitting for an average like AK's. Sadly, though, while he could still wind up on the north side of .300 for the year (although I'm not convinced), his .345 average won't hold. He's got a 47% hit rate, and that just won't hold up over the long term despite the excellent contact he made in June (93%). I mentioned this before and I suppose I'll have to say it again--Kennedy could either be used to fill an injury gap for you and would be pretty good trade bait with his current high value.
Jarrod Washburn
Most inexperienced owners see the 3.21 ERA, the 4 decent wins, and the fact that he's on a winning team and think, "I could really make some noise with this Washburn guy." No, you won't. AL owners should be looking to deal him yesterday. That ERA is going to rise, especially considering his K/9 is an atrocious 4.6. Add in a 1.73 K/BB and a 82% strand rate (rate of runners allowed on base that didn't score), and you've got upcoming ERA spike. Don't say I didn't warn you. With a more normal 72% strand rate, his ERA would be 4.37. I can't stress highly enough for AL owners--the time is now to get rid of Wash. The spike could come in the very next start. Wash isn't a guy who has "name" value, you have to deal when the numbers are good. That means now.
Mending Wings: A Fond Adieu to Kelvim
Steve Finley, according to the team site, is shagging balls and running the bases. He should be activated on schedule (7.6). Dallas McPherson (groin) and Bengie Molina (stomach) are day-to-day. Orlando Cabrera is also day-to-day, but he's not doing anything baseball-related right now, so his return could take a little bit. He could be a decent bet to be DLed. Most notably since last time, Kelvim Escobar opted for surgery on the bone spur in his elbow. He most likely won't be back until at least late August and possibly September. Given the time off involved and the lack of games remaining when he does resurface, I sadly have to say it's time to waive bye-bye to Kelvim for '05. Don't forget him come next year--this year's injury shouldn't reduce his top-level status for 2006.
Around the Halo
Juan Rivera his .341 in 41 ABs in June and has filled in nicely during the injury to Finley. It will be interesting to see if his ABs are increased when Finley returns. Jeff DaVanon owners keep watch. That’s who would lose the most PT. Don't worry about Jake Woods' 2 IP, 6 ER, 3 HR performance against TEX Thursday. The Rangers were just locked in. Don't be fooled by his inflated 4.10 ERA now. It's 2.22 without those 2 IP. Boy, Ervin Santana is going to be really good--but not yet. Paul Byrd is pitching the best he has all year and considering that he won't hurt you (only horrible start was 4.23 vs. OAK), he might be worth taking a look at for those of you who are looking for a little extra pitching. Stay cool, readers, but enjoy that sunshine. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
