Wednesday, June 22, 2005
Jose Guillen is a Child
This is not a bitter homer-type of rant. I've cheered for Jose Guillen for a while now. I shouted to the trees that the Reds should've traded Griffey, Kearns, or even Dunn before letting Guillien go to Oakland in 2003. And I've enjoyed seeing Guillen become an excellent player--but he's never matured as a person. He's the same whiny Guillen that came into the league, that asked for a trade incessantly in Cincinnati, and the same one that ran his mouth about Scioscia when an adult would've kept it shut. I get it that he doesn't like Mike. I'm fine with that. But we don’t need to hear his grudge tantrums. In January, Guillen said the only time he and a manager would "have a problem" is when he wasn't in the lineup. My problem with Guillen is when he opens his mouth.
Who's Your Vladdy?
Since returning from the DL, Vlad is hitting .439 with 4 HR and 12 RBI in 10 games. If only he'd get hurt more often, right? What makes it better is that he's actually walked more times that he's whiffed, which isn't typical of West Coast Vlad. This is easily the best he's looked all year and another season of .330+ with close to 40 HR is surely in store. I realize he's a little behind in the jack jaunt, but a healthy half-season will net him about 20 bombs, and we're still 3 weeks away from the All-Star Break. Vlad is one of those guys who can single-handedly keep a fantasy team afloat--which means he's incredibly hard to acquire. That doesn't mean I'd stop trying though. Outside of maybe Bobby Abreu, there still isn't anyone in the OF who will post what Vlad does the rest of '05.
Fantasy Crime in the First Degree
It really is a shame that Darin Erstad is a 1B. He's actually having a very productive year. He's tied for the team lead in runs, hits, and walks, while leading the team in doubles. The problem (and, in fantasy, there always seems to be a problem with Erstad) is that he plays first. With the depth in power at that position (think Lee, Pujols, Sexson, Teixeira, Konerko, and Ortiz) an owner can't afford to have a guy with 3 HR and SLG of .401. That's just awful for a power position. Now, say, you have A-Rod, Soriano, AND Tejada, then your infield can afford a guy at 1B who won't hit 10 HR. Otherwise, Erstad remains a player, that while productive, could put your roster at a disadvantage in the HR and RBI categories because of where he plays (hitting 1st or 2nd won't net 1B-like RBI).
Mending Wings: Foiled Elbows
Orlando Cabrera is having elbow problems. In his own words, OC told the team's official site, "I couldn't even move my arm." While it's still early in the diagnosis, that's not good. His .659 OPS will be sorely missed as he's day-to-day. Macier Izturis will fill the void (whose OPS is .575). Kelvim Escobar continues to rehab his elbow. His 3rd DL stint this year means that a 4th is more likely than not. The label of "ticking time bomb" for Escobar stands. When he has healthy moments, he's going to be outstanding, evidenced by his 3.54 ERA and 10.2 K/9. The problem, though, is that his injury makes him a very high-risk member of your roster. Still, if you have the luxury to hang onto him, you'd be remiss to let him go until he's officially out for the year.
June Swoons
Dallas McPherson hit 3 HRs in 3 days in late May and everyone thought, "Oh, boy. Here he comes." Ownership and interest soared--while I warned that indeed he has power, but his free-swinging (and I don't mean "life of the party") style at the plate would cause him to have further slumps like the one he had to start the year (11-58, .190). So far in June, he's hitting .224 with 2 BB and 20 Ks. All-or-nothing. Steve Finley also had a super May (.340, 18 RBI), but June's been anything but (.239, .656 OPS). Finley, at least for the immediate future, has a much better chance of hitting his way into an extended hot streak--he's making a better contact and still has a little speed to help him. Look for SF to rebound and DM to continue with occasional bursts of power.
Another Brick in the Wall
Just like any rookie, Ervin Santana is going to show he needs lessons in consistency. His previous 2-start stint while Escobar was out produced on good start and one terrible one. This time around it's the same. In a strange way, he's somewhat like Escobar now, only Escobar won't hurt the bottom line in the stat books--he just won't be healthy enough to pitch. That makes Santana, like all rookies, a bigger risk even though he's healthy because you never know if he's going to implode and give up 7 ER in 2.2 IP or fan 7 in 6 IP for the win. It sounds weird, but you might actually get a taker in a Santana/Escobar deal, since Ervin is highly touted and Kelvim isn't playing. Acquire Santana and give it a shot--there are plenty of years in the future to own Santana--2005 isn't one of them.
Caution Ahead
This stretch for the Halos is extremely important--7 games against 2nd place Chuck Norris and the Boys and the always tough Twins, balanced by prime opportunities against the struggling Dodgers, Royals, and Mariners. From now until the Break, the Angels will have to play well and they know it. Might be a good time to watch your Angels players shine in the clutch. With Paul Byrd pitching much better lately, it gives the Angels a much-needed lift with Escobar out. I know his K/9 is really too low for a competitive owner to be happy about acquiring him, but he's walked 2 batters in his last 5 starts (35 IP). That’s solid. Garret Anderson is a pure hitter. Only 10 BBs, little power, and somehow he's hitting .314. And on pace for 115 RBI. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Who's Your Vladdy?
Since returning from the DL, Vlad is hitting .439 with 4 HR and 12 RBI in 10 games. If only he'd get hurt more often, right? What makes it better is that he's actually walked more times that he's whiffed, which isn't typical of West Coast Vlad. This is easily the best he's looked all year and another season of .330+ with close to 40 HR is surely in store. I realize he's a little behind in the jack jaunt, but a healthy half-season will net him about 20 bombs, and we're still 3 weeks away from the All-Star Break. Vlad is one of those guys who can single-handedly keep a fantasy team afloat--which means he's incredibly hard to acquire. That doesn't mean I'd stop trying though. Outside of maybe Bobby Abreu, there still isn't anyone in the OF who will post what Vlad does the rest of '05.
Fantasy Crime in the First Degree
It really is a shame that Darin Erstad is a 1B. He's actually having a very productive year. He's tied for the team lead in runs, hits, and walks, while leading the team in doubles. The problem (and, in fantasy, there always seems to be a problem with Erstad) is that he plays first. With the depth in power at that position (think Lee, Pujols, Sexson, Teixeira, Konerko, and Ortiz) an owner can't afford to have a guy with 3 HR and SLG of .401. That's just awful for a power position. Now, say, you have A-Rod, Soriano, AND Tejada, then your infield can afford a guy at 1B who won't hit 10 HR. Otherwise, Erstad remains a player, that while productive, could put your roster at a disadvantage in the HR and RBI categories because of where he plays (hitting 1st or 2nd won't net 1B-like RBI).
Mending Wings: Foiled Elbows
Orlando Cabrera is having elbow problems. In his own words, OC told the team's official site, "I couldn't even move my arm." While it's still early in the diagnosis, that's not good. His .659 OPS will be sorely missed as he's day-to-day. Macier Izturis will fill the void (whose OPS is .575). Kelvim Escobar continues to rehab his elbow. His 3rd DL stint this year means that a 4th is more likely than not. The label of "ticking time bomb" for Escobar stands. When he has healthy moments, he's going to be outstanding, evidenced by his 3.54 ERA and 10.2 K/9. The problem, though, is that his injury makes him a very high-risk member of your roster. Still, if you have the luxury to hang onto him, you'd be remiss to let him go until he's officially out for the year.
June Swoons
Dallas McPherson hit 3 HRs in 3 days in late May and everyone thought, "Oh, boy. Here he comes." Ownership and interest soared--while I warned that indeed he has power, but his free-swinging (and I don't mean "life of the party") style at the plate would cause him to have further slumps like the one he had to start the year (11-58, .190). So far in June, he's hitting .224 with 2 BB and 20 Ks. All-or-nothing. Steve Finley also had a super May (.340, 18 RBI), but June's been anything but (.239, .656 OPS). Finley, at least for the immediate future, has a much better chance of hitting his way into an extended hot streak--he's making a better contact and still has a little speed to help him. Look for SF to rebound and DM to continue with occasional bursts of power.
Another Brick in the Wall
Just like any rookie, Ervin Santana is going to show he needs lessons in consistency. His previous 2-start stint while Escobar was out produced on good start and one terrible one. This time around it's the same. In a strange way, he's somewhat like Escobar now, only Escobar won't hurt the bottom line in the stat books--he just won't be healthy enough to pitch. That makes Santana, like all rookies, a bigger risk even though he's healthy because you never know if he's going to implode and give up 7 ER in 2.2 IP or fan 7 in 6 IP for the win. It sounds weird, but you might actually get a taker in a Santana/Escobar deal, since Ervin is highly touted and Kelvim isn't playing. Acquire Santana and give it a shot--there are plenty of years in the future to own Santana--2005 isn't one of them.
Caution Ahead
This stretch for the Halos is extremely important--7 games against 2nd place Chuck Norris and the Boys and the always tough Twins, balanced by prime opportunities against the struggling Dodgers, Royals, and Mariners. From now until the Break, the Angels will have to play well and they know it. Might be a good time to watch your Angels players shine in the clutch. With Paul Byrd pitching much better lately, it gives the Angels a much-needed lift with Escobar out. I know his K/9 is really too low for a competitive owner to be happy about acquiring him, but he's walked 2 batters in his last 5 starts (35 IP). That’s solid. Garret Anderson is a pure hitter. Only 10 BBs, little power, and somehow he's hitting .314. And on pace for 115 RBI. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
