Wednesday, March 03, 2004
Camp Chatter/Outfield Preview
I was reading that Tomo Ohka is starting on Thursday against the Tigers. I felt this curious rush in my chest for a moment. Then I realized—Tomo’s pitching this Thursday. Baseball is here, my friends. Sure, it’s Spring Training, but it’s time to suit up and get between the lines. We have probable starters! Doesn’t that feel good? Anyway, Day goes Friday, and Hernandez, Vargas, and Kim go Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. Notice someone absent? That’s right. Armas was skipped for his bullpen on Monday. That bicep is still giving him trouble. Here’s what I know—they’ve curtailed his weightlifting program and he’s not throwing off a mound until it’s completely better, according to the team website. I don’t know about you but that sounds like a setback to me. And maybe not a small one.
Here’s the worst part—Robinson says Armas will start the season (if healthy) as the 5th starter (so he can be skipped as needed). And because of the delicateness of his injury, it may stay that way further into the season. That sound you hear (other than your deep exhalation) is the worth rushing out of Armas for the early part of the year. I’ve been optimistic up ‘til now, but I’m beginning to worry—and if you’re planning on investing in Armas (or already have), so should you. With the sticks, hitting coach Tom McCraw says he’s not going to fool with Tony Batista’s swing because it seems to be working for him and he doesn’t want to change anything unnecessarily. My plan is to mail TB’s stat line to Viera ‘cause they obviously haven’t seen it if they think nothing is wrong with him.
I just spelled out in my last article why he’s got big problems and won’t waste space doing it again. The fact that he stands with one foot in the third base dugout while the pitcher starts his delivery should be proof enough without looking at a single box score. In backup catcher news, Gregg Zaun has apparently sprained his wrist by “sleeping on it wrong.” There was also a report of him doing it “swinging a bat”, but his sleeping habits lead by a 2-1 margin, so I’m going with that. I really don’t know what Gregg is dreaming about, but I think he should maybe invest in some oven mitts or somethin’.
Out in the FieldTurf—Brad Wilkerson, CF
What can you do as a manager if you have a player who walks or strikes out in 41 % of his ABs? Move him to leadoff? That’s where BW will likely spend most of 2004. His OBP is great (.378) but he was 3rd in Ks last year in the NL (155). Does this make any sense? Wilkerson is definitely an anomaly, but his career OBP is .368 even though he has struck out in almost 1/3 of his ABs. His career AVG (.261) reflects that, but his pitches per plate appearance (4.36 in ’03—best in ML) perhaps explain why he’s able to get on the pond so much. His ability to make a difference lies almost completely in making contact. If he can be more of a contact hitter and less of an AC unit, his value could really take a step up. If you can get him late in your draft, it might just be worth the risk.
Carl Everett, RF
Everett is in Montreal this season to provide a big bat in the middle of the order. Now, I didn’t just say “replace Guerrero”…’cause, please, that ain’t happenin’. But Everett’s power will be heavily relied on this year, and he might not disappoint. He had a couple of blah years in ’01 and ’02, but last year was solid again though his SLG faded significantly in the 2nd half. Here’s the key to Everett—AVG vs. LHP. What? Yeah, that’s the key. He’s batted consistently above .280 against RHP over the last five years. Those 2 blah years against LHP? .197 and .220. His solid ’99 and ’00 campaigns against LHP? A trailblazing .325 and .348. See a trend? In a division that could have as many as 8 lefty starters to open the year, his AVG vs. LHP could figure big. Keep an eye on it.
The Six-Headed Monster, LF
Ron Calloway, Val Pascucci, Peter Bergeron, Endy Chavez, Juan Rivera, Termel Sledge. MLB regs say all six (or really even more than one) can’t play LF at the same time. To keep it short for now (for space purposes), Calloway—No. Chavez—No. Pascucci—No. Robinson says that Bergeron only makes the team if he’s the starter. So unless Bergeron goes nuts (and he probably won’t), that leaves Rivera and Sledge. The early favorite seems to be Sledge. His AAA numbers last year certainly raised eyebrows (.324/22/92, 95 R and 13 SB). Rivera has never played full-time in the bigs, but he could be adequate if Sledge isn’t quite ready to start. Considering Sledge has a grand total of zero MLB ABs means it wouldn’t be unreasonable for him to struggle. Definitely more on this to come.
On Deck
Next time we’ll start looking at the lineup and check out developments from the first week of spring play. I don’t like to give too many number projections for players because anyone who does—even with detailed stats—is merely forming the best educated guess they can (guess being the operative word). However, I may yet try to pin the tail on the statistical donkey. The Draft Quick Hits are updated again on the archive site (http://exposflb.blog-city.com) and you can e-mail me at exposflb@insightbb.com. I’ll be checking out the Quick Hits myself—the correspondents league draft is tonight. Wish me luck. And until next week, for the love of Gregg Zaun, be careful sleeping and don’t sprain your wrist. Reporting for the Expos, I’m Matt Allen—ESPN.
Here’s the worst part—Robinson says Armas will start the season (if healthy) as the 5th starter (so he can be skipped as needed). And because of the delicateness of his injury, it may stay that way further into the season. That sound you hear (other than your deep exhalation) is the worth rushing out of Armas for the early part of the year. I’ve been optimistic up ‘til now, but I’m beginning to worry—and if you’re planning on investing in Armas (or already have), so should you. With the sticks, hitting coach Tom McCraw says he’s not going to fool with Tony Batista’s swing because it seems to be working for him and he doesn’t want to change anything unnecessarily. My plan is to mail TB’s stat line to Viera ‘cause they obviously haven’t seen it if they think nothing is wrong with him.
I just spelled out in my last article why he’s got big problems and won’t waste space doing it again. The fact that he stands with one foot in the third base dugout while the pitcher starts his delivery should be proof enough without looking at a single box score. In backup catcher news, Gregg Zaun has apparently sprained his wrist by “sleeping on it wrong.” There was also a report of him doing it “swinging a bat”, but his sleeping habits lead by a 2-1 margin, so I’m going with that. I really don’t know what Gregg is dreaming about, but I think he should maybe invest in some oven mitts or somethin’.
Out in the FieldTurf—Brad Wilkerson, CF
What can you do as a manager if you have a player who walks or strikes out in 41 % of his ABs? Move him to leadoff? That’s where BW will likely spend most of 2004. His OBP is great (.378) but he was 3rd in Ks last year in the NL (155). Does this make any sense? Wilkerson is definitely an anomaly, but his career OBP is .368 even though he has struck out in almost 1/3 of his ABs. His career AVG (.261) reflects that, but his pitches per plate appearance (4.36 in ’03—best in ML) perhaps explain why he’s able to get on the pond so much. His ability to make a difference lies almost completely in making contact. If he can be more of a contact hitter and less of an AC unit, his value could really take a step up. If you can get him late in your draft, it might just be worth the risk.
Carl Everett, RF
Everett is in Montreal this season to provide a big bat in the middle of the order. Now, I didn’t just say “replace Guerrero”…’cause, please, that ain’t happenin’. But Everett’s power will be heavily relied on this year, and he might not disappoint. He had a couple of blah years in ’01 and ’02, but last year was solid again though his SLG faded significantly in the 2nd half. Here’s the key to Everett—AVG vs. LHP. What? Yeah, that’s the key. He’s batted consistently above .280 against RHP over the last five years. Those 2 blah years against LHP? .197 and .220. His solid ’99 and ’00 campaigns against LHP? A trailblazing .325 and .348. See a trend? In a division that could have as many as 8 lefty starters to open the year, his AVG vs. LHP could figure big. Keep an eye on it.
The Six-Headed Monster, LF
Ron Calloway, Val Pascucci, Peter Bergeron, Endy Chavez, Juan Rivera, Termel Sledge. MLB regs say all six (or really even more than one) can’t play LF at the same time. To keep it short for now (for space purposes), Calloway—No. Chavez—No. Pascucci—No. Robinson says that Bergeron only makes the team if he’s the starter. So unless Bergeron goes nuts (and he probably won’t), that leaves Rivera and Sledge. The early favorite seems to be Sledge. His AAA numbers last year certainly raised eyebrows (.324/22/92, 95 R and 13 SB). Rivera has never played full-time in the bigs, but he could be adequate if Sledge isn’t quite ready to start. Considering Sledge has a grand total of zero MLB ABs means it wouldn’t be unreasonable for him to struggle. Definitely more on this to come.
On Deck
Next time we’ll start looking at the lineup and check out developments from the first week of spring play. I don’t like to give too many number projections for players because anyone who does—even with detailed stats—is merely forming the best educated guess they can (guess being the operative word). However, I may yet try to pin the tail on the statistical donkey. The Draft Quick Hits are updated again on the archive site (http://exposflb.blog-city.com) and you can e-mail me at exposflb@insightbb.com. I’ll be checking out the Quick Hits myself—the correspondents league draft is tonight. Wish me luck. And until next week, for the love of Gregg Zaun, be careful sleeping and don’t sprain your wrist. Reporting for the Expos, I’m Matt Allen—ESPN.
