Wednesday, March 03, 2004
Draft Quick Hits, 3.3.2004
Orlando Cabrera, SS: Currently going 6-8 round (8th SS). YOU take him: As early as 3rd SS, no later than 6th SS. The SS are goin’ early this year (10 in first 80, top 4 in first 20). I’d take him no later than 5th, ahead of Matsui, Furcal, and Jeter. He’s gonna run more, and he’s primed for a big year.
Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 5-7. (4th 2B) 2B isn’t deep this year (is it ever?), and Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from 12-18 round (15th 1B). YOU take him: really anywhere in there but know he’s a health risk. If he’s healty, he’s in the middle of the order and that could be huge. Hitting 5th—real huge. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did.
Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: 15th round or so. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: watch his AVG vs. LHP. Trust me. Above .280 this year and watch out.
Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (67th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 15 of the other closers in MLB.
Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 44th SP). YOU take him: early to mid teens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. He’s way too good to be going 42nd among the starters. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.25, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see.
Chad Cordero, P: Currently going early twenties (78th P, 30th RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.
Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is waning. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). He’s gonna hit leadoff most likely, but that only means more runs if he quits striking out. Worth the risk, though.
Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.
Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. If they’re solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 5-7. (4th 2B) 2B isn’t deep this year (is it ever?), and Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from 12-18 round (15th 1B). YOU take him: really anywhere in there but know he’s a health risk. If he’s healty, he’s in the middle of the order and that could be huge. Hitting 5th—real huge. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did.
Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: 15th round or so. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: watch his AVG vs. LHP. Trust me. Above .280 this year and watch out.
Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (67th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 15 of the other closers in MLB.
Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 44th SP). YOU take him: early to mid teens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. He’s way too good to be going 42nd among the starters. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.25, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see.
Chad Cordero, P: Currently going early twenties (78th P, 30th RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.
Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is waning. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). He’s gonna hit leadoff most likely, but that only means more runs if he quits striking out. Worth the risk, though.
Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.
Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. If they’re solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
