Monday, June 13, 2005
Sliding Doors
Have you seen the Gwyneth Paltrow movie where she's rushing to make the train and the moment splits and you spend most of the movie seeing how her life would've been different depending on whether or not she got on the train in time? Well, the Angels are at that moment, because that's how integral Kelvim Escobar is to their success. He's on the DL again with elbow soreness due to a bone spur that can break off at any time and turn into bone chips which would mean 6-8 weeks of down time. After his start on Wednesday where he left early with elbow soreness, he really sounded like he was ready to take the surgery route. Mike Scioscia seems to think they can patch and re-patch until the offseason. What happens from here with just Escobar could literally mean the division. We'll see.
Mending Wings: The Impaler
Talk about quickly shaking off the rust. Vlad's 4 for his first 9 back off the DL. I'd say it's safe to say he's back. The only thing that is a worry after a shoulder injury is power. All of those hits so far are singles, so keep an eye on that. He'll probably be okay though. Scioscia said that his BP swings look very normal--meaning he's hitting the ball really, really far and really, really hard. All signs point to the Halos recalling Ervin Santana to replace Escobar in the interim. He comes with the "going-to-be-really-good-but-remember-he's-only-a-rookie" disclaimer. If Escobar is out for an extended period of time, don't be surprised to see the Angels look for someone not on the roster to replace him.
Around the Rotation
With Escobar out and the Texas pushing the Angels for first in the AL West, the performance of the rest of the rotation is that even more important. Don't look for too many gems from Jarrod Washburn though. He's fanned only 14 batters in his last 5 starts (32 IP), which is bad enough before you consider that he's walked 13 in that same stretch. Yeah, the ERA's 3.09 in that span, but that won't last. Find a buyer now if you've got him. As I've said many times before, Bartolo Colon is a workhorse. He's got quite the load right now. He's shouldering it very well, too. In his last 4 starts, he's 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA, 26 Ks and only 1 BB. That's fantastic. John Lackey was a wobbly Sunday (6 BB), but after a 3.02 ERA in May and a good start in June, he's a solid pickup in mixed leagues.
At the Bat Rack
Garret Anderson is hitting .421 in June with only 1 K in 38 AB. That's what's called an absolute groove. Dallas McPherson is also hitting well since June 1st (.303, 1 HR, 6 RBI). He's fanned 10 times though, so don't expect that average to continue. Hope you picked up Chone Figgins during his .220 May. Some owners were, er, misguided enough to waive him (I got him as a FA and he's proceeded to hit .292 with 15 RBI and 9 SB on my roster). He's got a real shot at 50 SB and he'll be hard to acquire now. Adam Kennedy is off to a great June too (.467, 8 R). He'd be a good grab in mixed leagues while he's hot or maybe as trade bait. The Halos have attempted 79 SB in '05--only Tampa Bay and the Chicago White Sox have attempted more. Even Bengie Molina tried 2 this week!
More Than Middle Relief
Is there a good reason why only 5% of mixed league owners have rostered Brendan Donnelly? Yes, the ERA is 4.34, but you take away 2 bad outings in June and it's 2.57. He's vultured 4 wins already. He's fanned 22 in 29 IP and only walked 7. He's got as many (or more) wins as Carl Pavano, Roger Clemens, Mark Prior, and Jason Schmidt. Batters are only hitting .227 off him this season. Will he revolutionize your roster? Probably not--his HRs up a little this year (already surrendered 5 after giving up 5 all last year) and his Ks are down from the past 3 seasons, but overall the numbers are still there and there's little doubt he'd be easy to acquire for minimal, if any, value. It's pitchers like Donnelly who can make a difference in a good season and a great one.
O. Crap
Is it finally time to say something's really wrong with Orlando Cabrera? When a player signs for 32 mil over 4 years and then proceeds to hit .239 through mid-June, questions have to be asked. And the answer is yeah. Okay, he's had some bad luck (26% hit rate), but his hit rate from '02-'04 averages to 29%, which would only give him a .261 average. That's probably not what the Halos paid for in terms of offense. OC is locking everything up at short, but that doesn't help fantasy owners a bit. What's really interesting (especially on a team managed by Scioscia) is that he's not running--only 4 SB attempts this year (made all 4). Dallas McPherson has tried 4 times in 17 less games with less speed. Bottom line is you shouldn't expect OC's average to jump much, but he'll hit 12-15 HR.
Odds and Ends
Steve Finley now leads the team in HRs with 8. His G/F ratio is down, but I still wouldn't expect much more than 20 for the year, certainly nothing near last year's 36. That .233 average of his will rise though. Give it some time. Joel Peralta and Jake Woods have a combined 28 K and 3 BB--not to mention a 2.25 ERA. Neither are owned in more than 60% of AL leagues so if you need a little pitching, you could certainly do much worse. They replace my other recommendation, Kevin Gregg, who was sent down after a horrible start to this year. The Halos are 9th in total bases in the AL but 5th in runs scored. That kind of run manufacturing and will make them a good postseason team--if they can only get there. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Mending Wings: The Impaler
Talk about quickly shaking off the rust. Vlad's 4 for his first 9 back off the DL. I'd say it's safe to say he's back. The only thing that is a worry after a shoulder injury is power. All of those hits so far are singles, so keep an eye on that. He'll probably be okay though. Scioscia said that his BP swings look very normal--meaning he's hitting the ball really, really far and really, really hard. All signs point to the Halos recalling Ervin Santana to replace Escobar in the interim. He comes with the "going-to-be-really-good-but-remember-he's-only-a-rookie" disclaimer. If Escobar is out for an extended period of time, don't be surprised to see the Angels look for someone not on the roster to replace him.
Around the Rotation
With Escobar out and the Texas pushing the Angels for first in the AL West, the performance of the rest of the rotation is that even more important. Don't look for too many gems from Jarrod Washburn though. He's fanned only 14 batters in his last 5 starts (32 IP), which is bad enough before you consider that he's walked 13 in that same stretch. Yeah, the ERA's 3.09 in that span, but that won't last. Find a buyer now if you've got him. As I've said many times before, Bartolo Colon is a workhorse. He's got quite the load right now. He's shouldering it very well, too. In his last 4 starts, he's 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA, 26 Ks and only 1 BB. That's fantastic. John Lackey was a wobbly Sunday (6 BB), but after a 3.02 ERA in May and a good start in June, he's a solid pickup in mixed leagues.
At the Bat Rack
Garret Anderson is hitting .421 in June with only 1 K in 38 AB. That's what's called an absolute groove. Dallas McPherson is also hitting well since June 1st (.303, 1 HR, 6 RBI). He's fanned 10 times though, so don't expect that average to continue. Hope you picked up Chone Figgins during his .220 May. Some owners were, er, misguided enough to waive him (I got him as a FA and he's proceeded to hit .292 with 15 RBI and 9 SB on my roster). He's got a real shot at 50 SB and he'll be hard to acquire now. Adam Kennedy is off to a great June too (.467, 8 R). He'd be a good grab in mixed leagues while he's hot or maybe as trade bait. The Halos have attempted 79 SB in '05--only Tampa Bay and the Chicago White Sox have attempted more. Even Bengie Molina tried 2 this week!
More Than Middle Relief
Is there a good reason why only 5% of mixed league owners have rostered Brendan Donnelly? Yes, the ERA is 4.34, but you take away 2 bad outings in June and it's 2.57. He's vultured 4 wins already. He's fanned 22 in 29 IP and only walked 7. He's got as many (or more) wins as Carl Pavano, Roger Clemens, Mark Prior, and Jason Schmidt. Batters are only hitting .227 off him this season. Will he revolutionize your roster? Probably not--his HRs up a little this year (already surrendered 5 after giving up 5 all last year) and his Ks are down from the past 3 seasons, but overall the numbers are still there and there's little doubt he'd be easy to acquire for minimal, if any, value. It's pitchers like Donnelly who can make a difference in a good season and a great one.
O. Crap
Is it finally time to say something's really wrong with Orlando Cabrera? When a player signs for 32 mil over 4 years and then proceeds to hit .239 through mid-June, questions have to be asked. And the answer is yeah. Okay, he's had some bad luck (26% hit rate), but his hit rate from '02-'04 averages to 29%, which would only give him a .261 average. That's probably not what the Halos paid for in terms of offense. OC is locking everything up at short, but that doesn't help fantasy owners a bit. What's really interesting (especially on a team managed by Scioscia) is that he's not running--only 4 SB attempts this year (made all 4). Dallas McPherson has tried 4 times in 17 less games with less speed. Bottom line is you shouldn't expect OC's average to jump much, but he'll hit 12-15 HR.
Odds and Ends
Steve Finley now leads the team in HRs with 8. His G/F ratio is down, but I still wouldn't expect much more than 20 for the year, certainly nothing near last year's 36. That .233 average of his will rise though. Give it some time. Joel Peralta and Jake Woods have a combined 28 K and 3 BB--not to mention a 2.25 ERA. Neither are owned in more than 60% of AL leagues so if you need a little pitching, you could certainly do much worse. They replace my other recommendation, Kevin Gregg, who was sent down after a horrible start to this year. The Halos are 9th in total bases in the AL but 5th in runs scored. That kind of run manufacturing and will make them a good postseason team--if they can only get there. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
