Wednesday, March 17, 2004
Draft Quick Hits, 3.17.2004
Orlando Cabrera, SS: Currently going 6-8 round (8th SS). YOU take him: As early as 3rd SS, no later than 5th SS. The SS are goin’ early this year (10 in first 80, top 5 in first 30). I’d take him no later than 5th, ahead of Matsui, Furcal, and even Jeter. He’s gonna run (only Renteria will run more). Get your power and then snag O.
Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going round 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 4th 2B, maybe even 3rd (after Soriano and Boone). Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from round 13-19 (15th 1B). YOU take him: Closer to 13, although it might be safe to let him fall a couple. He’s still dropping slightly on the draft charts, which makes absolutely no sense. His upside is huge and if he’s hitting 5th and that could be huge also. AVG, R, solid HR, and maybe big RBIs. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did. But right now, he is healthy, hitting .421 this spring and slugging .579. If he stays healthy, hop on and enjoy the stats.
Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: 15th round or so. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: his right handed hitting (he’s a switch hitter for the uneducated). Trust me. He didn't perform from the right side in '01 and '02 (.197 and .220 respectively), but last year he rebounded for a respectable .254. So did the rest of his stats. Above .280 AVG this year from the right side and watch out. Power wise, three year trend in rising G/F ratio means power is definitely available.
Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 20 of the other closers in MLB. His back also makes him a health risk. He's claiming he may have to change his mechanics now to help it heal. That's not something you want to hear three weeks from Opening Day. In other words—FRAGILE: Handle With Care.
Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (64th P, 39th SP). YOU take him: early to mid tens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. Others are catching on. He’s way too good to be going 39th among the starters. But even that's up, so his value is catching on. At worst, he’s around 20th in terms of talent. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. In my first draft, I got him in the 19th round. Next draft--22nd round. Those are ridiculous steals. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.30, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see.
Chad Cordero, P: Currently going at clean up time (81st P, 32nd RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Before long (see my current article), he could be behind Jeremy Fikac. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.
Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is could wane hitting leadoff. If he gets his wish to hit later in the order, and Sledge or even Bergeron hits leadoff, then 20 isn't far-fetched. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). He’s gonna hit leadoff most likely, but that only means more runs if he quits striking out. Worth the risk, though.
Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.
Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. So far they're strong (.412 AVG). If they stay solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going round 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 4th 2B, maybe even 3rd (after Soriano and Boone). Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.
Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from round 13-19 (15th 1B). YOU take him: Closer to 13, although it might be safe to let him fall a couple. He’s still dropping slightly on the draft charts, which makes absolutely no sense. His upside is huge and if he’s hitting 5th and that could be huge also. AVG, R, solid HR, and maybe big RBIs. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did. But right now, he is healthy, hitting .421 this spring and slugging .579. If he stays healthy, hop on and enjoy the stats.
Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: 15th round or so. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: his right handed hitting (he’s a switch hitter for the uneducated). Trust me. He didn't perform from the right side in '01 and '02 (.197 and .220 respectively), but last year he rebounded for a respectable .254. So did the rest of his stats. Above .280 AVG this year from the right side and watch out. Power wise, three year trend in rising G/F ratio means power is definitely available.
Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 20 of the other closers in MLB. His back also makes him a health risk. He's claiming he may have to change his mechanics now to help it heal. That's not something you want to hear three weeks from Opening Day. In other words—FRAGILE: Handle With Care.
Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (64th P, 39th SP). YOU take him: early to mid tens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. Others are catching on. He’s way too good to be going 39th among the starters. But even that's up, so his value is catching on. At worst, he’s around 20th in terms of talent. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. In my first draft, I got him in the 19th round. Next draft--22nd round. Those are ridiculous steals. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.30, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see.
Chad Cordero, P: Currently going at clean up time (81st P, 32nd RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Before long (see my current article), he could be behind Jeremy Fikac. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.
Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is could wane hitting leadoff. If he gets his wish to hit later in the order, and Sledge or even Bergeron hits leadoff, then 20 isn't far-fetched. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). He’s gonna hit leadoff most likely, but that only means more runs if he quits striking out. Worth the risk, though.
Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.
Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. So far they're strong (.412 AVG). If they stay solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
