Wednesday, May 18, 2005
Pitching A Fit
It's a good thing the Angels are only hitting .242 as a team. It's a good thing their .294 OBP (lowest in the AL) has netted them just 159 runs, more than only Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland (who have 3 of the 5 worst records in the AL). Those are good things--otherwise, we might gloss over just how good this Halo pitching staff has been. There's a 3.59 ERA, only beaten by the White Sox, who have the best record in baseball. Only the White Sox and Twins have allowed fewer runs. Only 1 team has a better K/9 (Baltimore). Only 2 teams have better K/BB (Minnesota and Cleveland). Opponents are hitting .218 off of the bullpen (again, only MIN and CLE are better). This is a good year (like several before now) to own a number of Angel pitchers.
K-Rod and Scot Shields are great targets (we've discussed them), although they'll be tough to deal for. Brendan Donnelly is also very solid, though his K/9 is down to date in '05. Did somebody say Jake Woods? How does 13 Ks against 2 BBs grab you? Don't forget about the solid rotation. Bartolo Colon. John Lackey is very close to putting it together. Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd have fared pretty well also, but their walks will probably have to continue to stay miniscule for them to produce as they have. There are issues with Kelvim Escobar's elbow that could prove to be disastrous for his '05 campaign (more on that later), but even with those problems, a new name emerges.
The New Santana
Ervin Santana, to my knowledge, is not related to Johan Santana, but his talent could prove to be akin to that of 2004's AL Cy Young Award winner. Before you leap out of your seat and break your mouse clicking for the free agent page, remember that Johan debuted in the majors in 2000 but only found success in June of 2002. It will take some time for Ervin to settle in (evidenced by Tuesday's 4 IP, 6 ER performance). He definitely has the talent, but there's no guarantee he'll get to compete long at the ML level. His highest experience to date is at AA, so that should temper expectations as well. Baseball HQ has Santana as the top pitching prospect in the Angel system and his early numbers certainly bear that out, but he's still just 22 with no ML experience. One day, though…
OC Hates the OC
I really don't know Orlando Cabrera's opinion of the TV show, but he definitely doesn't like Angel Stadium. His .203 AVG and .605 OPS (!) tell me that without having to ask. To his credit, he's had terrible luck at home (23% hit rate). You combine that with a 92% contact rate at home and that means before long, the hits will begin to fall--possibly in bunches. Even away from home, OC is due for an upswing in, well, just about everything. He's putting the ball in play 90% of the time and despite all the bad luck, he's not pressing at the plate (11 BB vs. 13 K). He's not tearing the cover off the ball, but he's not struggling to square up either. Everything points to Cabrera turning it around soon, and now would be an excellent time take advantage of an impatient owner's worries.
Chone Gone to Lunch
Here's another guy who's really struggling right now, but there is a little more cause for concern with Figgins. Most of his numbers at least resemble his success in the past, but Figgins has always made at least average contact. This year so far he's only put wood on the ball in 79% of his ABs. That's his 1st time below the 80% mark and it represents the 3rd consecutive year his contact percentage has fallen if his performance trend continues. With his role on the team, he's got to start putting the bat on the ball a little more. He's working the count (4.09 P/PA), which accounts for a mediocre BB%, but he's got to do it with his plate patience when he's 0 for his last 20 as he is now. The SBs will continue, but it's hard to see a big total if his .293 OBP doesn't improve greatly.
Mending Wings: Big Names, Big Worries?
I mentioned last time that Kelvim Escobar could be out a while. He's on the 15-day DL due to a bone spur in his elbow. If it gets worse, could lead to bone chips, which would require surgery (one he's had once before) and cost him 6-8 weeks. The only thing that can stop Escobar is injury and for now it will. The season isn't lost yet, but his 2nd stint on the DL raises the risk of keeping him significantly. With only 4 starts (regardless of how good they were), his trade value is minimal. If you can afford to hold him, you should. Finley has been out with a tight groin. He played Tuesday (1-5, RBI). He'll probably be okay with the rest he's had. K-Rod is out until likely the weekend with a forearm strain. Scioscia & Co. sound positive, but this is definitely something to watch.
Wedding Transactions
I want to take a minute and thank all of you who sent a note of well wishes for my upcoming wedding. I really appreciate it. Unfortunately, there's no one to call up to fill the void in my absence, but this will only be a 15-day stint on the WL. I'll be back 100% (and probably with a much better tan) after Memorial Day weekend, ready to take it through the rest of the season. You can still e-mail at ith@insightbb.com although I won't be able to respond until I return. I appreciate your patience. Enjoy the Angels while I'm away and rest assured that even though I won't following them around the diamond in the coming days, I will be dancing with one around an island in the Caribbean. I said this when we were engaged--God must really love Halo fans. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
K-Rod and Scot Shields are great targets (we've discussed them), although they'll be tough to deal for. Brendan Donnelly is also very solid, though his K/9 is down to date in '05. Did somebody say Jake Woods? How does 13 Ks against 2 BBs grab you? Don't forget about the solid rotation. Bartolo Colon. John Lackey is very close to putting it together. Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd have fared pretty well also, but their walks will probably have to continue to stay miniscule for them to produce as they have. There are issues with Kelvim Escobar's elbow that could prove to be disastrous for his '05 campaign (more on that later), but even with those problems, a new name emerges.
The New Santana
Ervin Santana, to my knowledge, is not related to Johan Santana, but his talent could prove to be akin to that of 2004's AL Cy Young Award winner. Before you leap out of your seat and break your mouse clicking for the free agent page, remember that Johan debuted in the majors in 2000 but only found success in June of 2002. It will take some time for Ervin to settle in (evidenced by Tuesday's 4 IP, 6 ER performance). He definitely has the talent, but there's no guarantee he'll get to compete long at the ML level. His highest experience to date is at AA, so that should temper expectations as well. Baseball HQ has Santana as the top pitching prospect in the Angel system and his early numbers certainly bear that out, but he's still just 22 with no ML experience. One day, though…
OC Hates the OC
I really don't know Orlando Cabrera's opinion of the TV show, but he definitely doesn't like Angel Stadium. His .203 AVG and .605 OPS (!) tell me that without having to ask. To his credit, he's had terrible luck at home (23% hit rate). You combine that with a 92% contact rate at home and that means before long, the hits will begin to fall--possibly in bunches. Even away from home, OC is due for an upswing in, well, just about everything. He's putting the ball in play 90% of the time and despite all the bad luck, he's not pressing at the plate (11 BB vs. 13 K). He's not tearing the cover off the ball, but he's not struggling to square up either. Everything points to Cabrera turning it around soon, and now would be an excellent time take advantage of an impatient owner's worries.
Chone Gone to Lunch
Here's another guy who's really struggling right now, but there is a little more cause for concern with Figgins. Most of his numbers at least resemble his success in the past, but Figgins has always made at least average contact. This year so far he's only put wood on the ball in 79% of his ABs. That's his 1st time below the 80% mark and it represents the 3rd consecutive year his contact percentage has fallen if his performance trend continues. With his role on the team, he's got to start putting the bat on the ball a little more. He's working the count (4.09 P/PA), which accounts for a mediocre BB%, but he's got to do it with his plate patience when he's 0 for his last 20 as he is now. The SBs will continue, but it's hard to see a big total if his .293 OBP doesn't improve greatly.
Mending Wings: Big Names, Big Worries?
I mentioned last time that Kelvim Escobar could be out a while. He's on the 15-day DL due to a bone spur in his elbow. If it gets worse, could lead to bone chips, which would require surgery (one he's had once before) and cost him 6-8 weeks. The only thing that can stop Escobar is injury and for now it will. The season isn't lost yet, but his 2nd stint on the DL raises the risk of keeping him significantly. With only 4 starts (regardless of how good they were), his trade value is minimal. If you can afford to hold him, you should. Finley has been out with a tight groin. He played Tuesday (1-5, RBI). He'll probably be okay with the rest he's had. K-Rod is out until likely the weekend with a forearm strain. Scioscia & Co. sound positive, but this is definitely something to watch.
Wedding Transactions
I want to take a minute and thank all of you who sent a note of well wishes for my upcoming wedding. I really appreciate it. Unfortunately, there's no one to call up to fill the void in my absence, but this will only be a 15-day stint on the WL. I'll be back 100% (and probably with a much better tan) after Memorial Day weekend, ready to take it through the rest of the season. You can still e-mail at ith@insightbb.com although I won't be able to respond until I return. I appreciate your patience. Enjoy the Angels while I'm away and rest assured that even though I won't following them around the diamond in the coming days, I will be dancing with one around an island in the Caribbean. I said this when we were engaged--God must really love Halo fans. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
