Tuesday, March 29, 2005
Draft/Season Preview Vol. 3
Mike Scioscia calls his starting rotation "championship-caliber" this season, according to the team website, and I would have to agree with him. No, they don't have any huge names (a huge ace, maybe, but his name isn't huge), but this rotation certainly has the talent to lead the Halos to a postseason run at the World Series. Spring (at least in baseball terms) is almost finished, and in a week we'll all be treating ourselves to games that actually count. But before you get too excited and begin doing cartwheels near your computer screen, let's take a look at this championship-caliber rotation since the beginning order is set now. Which of these guys can help you? Who needs a short leash? Volumes 1 & 2 (IF & OF) are available at insidethehalo.blogspot.com.
Bartolo Colon
His battery mate Bengie Molina may have dropped 22 pounds over the winter, but I'm not sure BC had the same luck. How big his pitching will be this season is all fantasy owners are concerned with though. He's had a solid spring and his 13-5, 4.07 ERA 2nd half has been well covered by now. I won't mention the numbers from '04's 1st half, because you might run away screaming. Suffice it to say that a lot of his peripherals looked the same on both ends of the season. Fly balls were just leaving at an inordinate pace. His FB% has been over 40 the last 2 years. So, it shouldn't surprise you that they've been his worst in terms of HRs. Bring that down, he's the Colon of old. BOTTOM LINE: Still a frontliner, BC could (and probably will) be undervalued to begin the year.
Jarrod Washburn
Wash is serviceable. That's the most succinct way to put it. I wouldn't want him on my fantasy roster, but the bottom line is he can deliver the occasional good start. Serviceable. He's got solid control, he gets lefties out (except David Ortiz in the ALDS--UPDATE: The ball is still going), and he'll certainly get run support. That's how he started 8-3 in '04 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Here's something--his FB% dropped by 10 in '04. That could be very good news is that trend continues. The rest is no good though. He all finesse with little ability to mow anyone down. He had a solid start this weekend, but he’s so inconsistent you don’t know whether he'll retire 10 in a row or get rocked. BOTTOM LINE: I wouldn't want him unless I was in a really bad pinch. Too unpredictable.
John Lackey
John Lackey should be applauded. And he was--for a half season. Remember 2002, when the Angels won the Series, and was key in the drive for the championship? Remember Game 7? The honeymoon's over for Lackey. Another rookie that year (one Francisco Rodriguez) hit the ground running, so he's been consistently applauded while Lackey is generally maligned--maligned to a smart owner's benefit. Lackey is just 26. He's got the tools and the talent. He's just taking longer to mature. 2005 may see a 2nd honeymoon for JL. His K/9 went up to 8.5 in the 2nd half last year. From July on, he had 2 bad starts. BOTTOM LINE: I wouldn't be the least bit shy about drafting Lackey in the as a 2 or 3 in your rotation. Here's a personal stat for you--4 drafts, 3 Lackeys for me.
Paul Byrd
Byrd a finesse guy who got the Leo Mazzone Extreme Makeover last year, so that puts him on the radar for most owners. But he's only had 114 IP since Tommy John surgery in 2003. What's the '05 forecast? Well, bottom line is that he has absolutely fabulous control. If you want to get on against Byrd, you gonna have to hit your way there. The problem is many folks do--especially the lefties. They hit .329 against him last year. The redeemer was the .219 against righties. PB won't fan a lot, but if he can keep it around 6.0 K/9 and keep the ball on the ground more (which he's trying to do by adding a sinker), he could have a successful season. BOTTOM LINE: I would put him on the end of a rotation--he'll get run support and I can't see him hurting you.
Kelvim Escobar
He’s in the 5 hole only until the Halos can work him further up in the rotation. He had a slow start this spring with a sore shoulder. That's fine now. He's soon be #2, but let me say this--Kelvim Escobar is getting ready to emerge. Emerge sounds dramatic, I know, but it's the truth. You're looking at an 8.3 K/9 with better-than-ever control, he does the best job in the rotation at keeping the ball in the yard. He's 29, entering great year for a pitchers, his role is defined, he's got a great offense behind him--there's very little to not like. His OBA in '04 was .247. BOTTOM LINE: If you haven't drafted Kelvim Escobar, I'd try and get him while some folks still think he's a "common", as they say in baseball card circles. Kelvim Escobar is about to emerge.
Spring Notes and Vol. 4
A recent pole at the Angels official site asked who should hit leadoff. The fans (with whom I agree) said Figgins overwhelmingly. Scioscia says Erstad. DaVanon will hit 2nd for now at DH. Pick him up for speed and because he's hitting in front of Vlad, GA, and Finley. That brings us to Cabrera at 6. Can you say "truckloads of RBI"? McPherson had 8 ABs in 2 minor league games, 1 hit. Things are good, but Quinlan will probably hit 7 on Opening Day. Molina will be 8 and Figgins will hit 9, which to some might seem like putting the tortoise directly in the hare's path. Better run fast, Bengie. The last issue of the Preview will look at the bullpen. Percival won’t be missed. SIX (!) draftable players there. I'm not kidding. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Bartolo Colon
His battery mate Bengie Molina may have dropped 22 pounds over the winter, but I'm not sure BC had the same luck. How big his pitching will be this season is all fantasy owners are concerned with though. He's had a solid spring and his 13-5, 4.07 ERA 2nd half has been well covered by now. I won't mention the numbers from '04's 1st half, because you might run away screaming. Suffice it to say that a lot of his peripherals looked the same on both ends of the season. Fly balls were just leaving at an inordinate pace. His FB% has been over 40 the last 2 years. So, it shouldn't surprise you that they've been his worst in terms of HRs. Bring that down, he's the Colon of old. BOTTOM LINE: Still a frontliner, BC could (and probably will) be undervalued to begin the year.
Jarrod Washburn
Wash is serviceable. That's the most succinct way to put it. I wouldn't want him on my fantasy roster, but the bottom line is he can deliver the occasional good start. Serviceable. He's got solid control, he gets lefties out (except David Ortiz in the ALDS--UPDATE: The ball is still going), and he'll certainly get run support. That's how he started 8-3 in '04 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Here's something--his FB% dropped by 10 in '04. That could be very good news is that trend continues. The rest is no good though. He all finesse with little ability to mow anyone down. He had a solid start this weekend, but he’s so inconsistent you don’t know whether he'll retire 10 in a row or get rocked. BOTTOM LINE: I wouldn't want him unless I was in a really bad pinch. Too unpredictable.
John Lackey
John Lackey should be applauded. And he was--for a half season. Remember 2002, when the Angels won the Series, and was key in the drive for the championship? Remember Game 7? The honeymoon's over for Lackey. Another rookie that year (one Francisco Rodriguez) hit the ground running, so he's been consistently applauded while Lackey is generally maligned--maligned to a smart owner's benefit. Lackey is just 26. He's got the tools and the talent. He's just taking longer to mature. 2005 may see a 2nd honeymoon for JL. His K/9 went up to 8.5 in the 2nd half last year. From July on, he had 2 bad starts. BOTTOM LINE: I wouldn't be the least bit shy about drafting Lackey in the as a 2 or 3 in your rotation. Here's a personal stat for you--4 drafts, 3 Lackeys for me.
Paul Byrd
Byrd a finesse guy who got the Leo Mazzone Extreme Makeover last year, so that puts him on the radar for most owners. But he's only had 114 IP since Tommy John surgery in 2003. What's the '05 forecast? Well, bottom line is that he has absolutely fabulous control. If you want to get on against Byrd, you gonna have to hit your way there. The problem is many folks do--especially the lefties. They hit .329 against him last year. The redeemer was the .219 against righties. PB won't fan a lot, but if he can keep it around 6.0 K/9 and keep the ball on the ground more (which he's trying to do by adding a sinker), he could have a successful season. BOTTOM LINE: I would put him on the end of a rotation--he'll get run support and I can't see him hurting you.
Kelvim Escobar
He’s in the 5 hole only until the Halos can work him further up in the rotation. He had a slow start this spring with a sore shoulder. That's fine now. He's soon be #2, but let me say this--Kelvim Escobar is getting ready to emerge. Emerge sounds dramatic, I know, but it's the truth. You're looking at an 8.3 K/9 with better-than-ever control, he does the best job in the rotation at keeping the ball in the yard. He's 29, entering great year for a pitchers, his role is defined, he's got a great offense behind him--there's very little to not like. His OBA in '04 was .247. BOTTOM LINE: If you haven't drafted Kelvim Escobar, I'd try and get him while some folks still think he's a "common", as they say in baseball card circles. Kelvim Escobar is about to emerge.
Spring Notes and Vol. 4
A recent pole at the Angels official site asked who should hit leadoff. The fans (with whom I agree) said Figgins overwhelmingly. Scioscia says Erstad. DaVanon will hit 2nd for now at DH. Pick him up for speed and because he's hitting in front of Vlad, GA, and Finley. That brings us to Cabrera at 6. Can you say "truckloads of RBI"? McPherson had 8 ABs in 2 minor league games, 1 hit. Things are good, but Quinlan will probably hit 7 on Opening Day. Molina will be 8 and Figgins will hit 9, which to some might seem like putting the tortoise directly in the hare's path. Better run fast, Bengie. The last issue of the Preview will look at the bullpen. Percival won’t be missed. SIX (!) draftable players there. I'm not kidding. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Tuesday, March 22, 2005
Draft/Season Preview Vol. 2
There are plenty of Disney clichés I could use when describing the Angels in the Outfield this season (By the way, did you remember that Academy Award winner Adrien Brody is in that film?), but I'll save you the pain and just start flapping my arms as a signal--a signal these boys can play. That fact most of you know, considering they're all vets and well-established stars (one of which picked up some impressive MVP hardware last season), but the following will provide you with some trends to recognize heading into your draft and also take a look a just how deep this outfield is beyond the starting lineup. If you missed Volume 1, the infield preview is available at Inside the Halo (insidethehalo.blogspot.com). I can be reached, as always, at insidethehalo@insightbb.com.
LF: Garret Anderson
Back pains and durability issues prompted the Halos to get Anderson out of CF (in favor of an older Steve Finley, but that's another story). Garret's played more games in LF than anywhere else and his arthritic back condition is going well--so far, so good. Also, he's certainly a little under the radar this season with the subpar numbers he posted in '04 because of injury. Also good. Everything points to a return to the old GA, who was always a solid 2nd OF. Check. Lately, though, he's been dealing with tendonitis in his left knee, which the Halos are downplaying, but any injury could keep GA from having the dependable stats that you could almost set your watch by. BOTTOM LINE: Everything looks good as long as the health stays strong. Could be quite undervalued at your draft.
CF: Steve Finley
There aren't many 40-year-old CFs that have any value left. Finley is the exception to the rule. Under a new 2-year deal, Steve-O (not that one) is looking to squeeze a couple more years out of his body for the Halos. His contact % was his highest in 5 years, so if his AVG doesn't rise (.271), it certainly won't fall. His stats certainly don't seem like they're from a quadragenarian. Two things to not bid on, however: 36 HR won't happen again. He's playing in a much better pitcher's park and his SLG was actually lower in ‘04 (.490) than his last two, when his HRs were in the 20s. Also, the single digit SBs are probably here to stay, even in Anaheim. After all, he is 40. BOTTOM LINE: Expect HRs in the 20s, but Rs and RBIs could skyrocket, depending on where he hits.
RF: Vladimir Guerrero
Here's the most in-depth analysis you need for Guerrero--draft him whenever possible. Last season's AL MVP is still making great contact despite becoming less patient at the plate (that seems to be an Angel-inherited trait). He's a complete masher who's still in his 20s and the sky is the limit as far as his stats are concerned. He's not had a whole year since his back woes and you can expect the double digit SBs to continue for now, although he won't post Figgins-like numbers in that department. He can help your team in every category and is simply one of the best players in either league. BOTTOM LINE: Capable of being a leader in any Triple Crown category. If he's available, you won't be sorry you called his number.
OF: Jeff DaVanon
Every year, I get mail on DaVanon. "Should I pick him up?" "Can he help me?" It's usually because he's filling in due to injury, and thus, that's been the story of DaVanon's career. What could he do with full time PT? He might steal 40 bags or hit 20 HR, but the problem with that potential is that it's likely to never be tapped in Anaheim. He's behind Finley, Anderson, Guerrero, and when Adam Kennedy is healthy, even Figgins. So Jeff will remain what he's always been--a stopgap, a surge protector, a flash in the pan. If he's getting PT, he'd be a good add for speed, but the likelihood of him seeing 300 ABs is non-existent with overall good Angel health. BOTTOM LINE: His power seems to have waned (.418 SLG in '04), but he's a patient hitter with speed.
OF: Juan Rivera
Rivera went from touted prospect in Pinstripes to baseball wasteland in Montreal and now shows up on the west coast at 26 with potential and a knapsack--and also no starting position. Yet. He could end up as the full-time DH depending on how DaVanon's situation and Kennedy's health. He's got a good bat, but it's been devoid of any outstanding power since his time in the minors. He makes great contact with .300 potential but his inconsistent performance against lefties and righties leaves him still in Enigmaville. With Salmon out for the season, the opportunity is there for him to finally get full-time PT at DH if he breaks through. BOTTOM LINE: He had a great 2nd half and is 26 this season, a great age for breakthrough performances. If he's in the lineup, he's a good gamble.
Spring Notes and Vol. 3
Kevin Gregg has a 2.57 ERA with 10 K and 3 BB in 7 IP this spring. Put this on top of last year's stats and Scioscia's willingness to use him often and it means you should be drafting him as a solid middle reliever. I have--twice. Scot Shields is poised for another excellent season in the pen, but keep an eye on his right shin. His shin splint was rediagnosed as a stress reaction, a step down from stress fracture. That could hurt his value. McPherson is hitting off a tee and could play this week. Still count on Quinlan for Opening Day but Dallas will be in Anaheim soon. Adam Kennedy is progressing lightning fast in his rehab. His could be back by early May, as much as a month early. The rotation is next. Two solid sleepers there. Stay tuned. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
LF: Garret Anderson
Back pains and durability issues prompted the Halos to get Anderson out of CF (in favor of an older Steve Finley, but that's another story). Garret's played more games in LF than anywhere else and his arthritic back condition is going well--so far, so good. Also, he's certainly a little under the radar this season with the subpar numbers he posted in '04 because of injury. Also good. Everything points to a return to the old GA, who was always a solid 2nd OF. Check. Lately, though, he's been dealing with tendonitis in his left knee, which the Halos are downplaying, but any injury could keep GA from having the dependable stats that you could almost set your watch by. BOTTOM LINE: Everything looks good as long as the health stays strong. Could be quite undervalued at your draft.
CF: Steve Finley
There aren't many 40-year-old CFs that have any value left. Finley is the exception to the rule. Under a new 2-year deal, Steve-O (not that one) is looking to squeeze a couple more years out of his body for the Halos. His contact % was his highest in 5 years, so if his AVG doesn't rise (.271), it certainly won't fall. His stats certainly don't seem like they're from a quadragenarian. Two things to not bid on, however: 36 HR won't happen again. He's playing in a much better pitcher's park and his SLG was actually lower in ‘04 (.490) than his last two, when his HRs were in the 20s. Also, the single digit SBs are probably here to stay, even in Anaheim. After all, he is 40. BOTTOM LINE: Expect HRs in the 20s, but Rs and RBIs could skyrocket, depending on where he hits.
RF: Vladimir Guerrero
Here's the most in-depth analysis you need for Guerrero--draft him whenever possible. Last season's AL MVP is still making great contact despite becoming less patient at the plate (that seems to be an Angel-inherited trait). He's a complete masher who's still in his 20s and the sky is the limit as far as his stats are concerned. He's not had a whole year since his back woes and you can expect the double digit SBs to continue for now, although he won't post Figgins-like numbers in that department. He can help your team in every category and is simply one of the best players in either league. BOTTOM LINE: Capable of being a leader in any Triple Crown category. If he's available, you won't be sorry you called his number.
OF: Jeff DaVanon
Every year, I get mail on DaVanon. "Should I pick him up?" "Can he help me?" It's usually because he's filling in due to injury, and thus, that's been the story of DaVanon's career. What could he do with full time PT? He might steal 40 bags or hit 20 HR, but the problem with that potential is that it's likely to never be tapped in Anaheim. He's behind Finley, Anderson, Guerrero, and when Adam Kennedy is healthy, even Figgins. So Jeff will remain what he's always been--a stopgap, a surge protector, a flash in the pan. If he's getting PT, he'd be a good add for speed, but the likelihood of him seeing 300 ABs is non-existent with overall good Angel health. BOTTOM LINE: His power seems to have waned (.418 SLG in '04), but he's a patient hitter with speed.
OF: Juan Rivera
Rivera went from touted prospect in Pinstripes to baseball wasteland in Montreal and now shows up on the west coast at 26 with potential and a knapsack--and also no starting position. Yet. He could end up as the full-time DH depending on how DaVanon's situation and Kennedy's health. He's got a good bat, but it's been devoid of any outstanding power since his time in the minors. He makes great contact with .300 potential but his inconsistent performance against lefties and righties leaves him still in Enigmaville. With Salmon out for the season, the opportunity is there for him to finally get full-time PT at DH if he breaks through. BOTTOM LINE: He had a great 2nd half and is 26 this season, a great age for breakthrough performances. If he's in the lineup, he's a good gamble.
Spring Notes and Vol. 3
Kevin Gregg has a 2.57 ERA with 10 K and 3 BB in 7 IP this spring. Put this on top of last year's stats and Scioscia's willingness to use him often and it means you should be drafting him as a solid middle reliever. I have--twice. Scot Shields is poised for another excellent season in the pen, but keep an eye on his right shin. His shin splint was rediagnosed as a stress reaction, a step down from stress fracture. That could hurt his value. McPherson is hitting off a tee and could play this week. Still count on Quinlan for Opening Day but Dallas will be in Anaheim soon. Adam Kennedy is progressing lightning fast in his rehab. His could be back by early May, as much as a month early. The rotation is next. Two solid sleepers there. Stay tuned. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Chicken or Egg? Winning or Chemistry?
The debate may always rage on which begets what, and similarly, it's very easy to cover a team that's good even when you're not getting paid (or is it easier to not get paid when you're covering a good team?). Anyway, one linear statement that is for certain in fantasy baseball is that it's very hard to have a good season if you don't have a good draft. Ask my best friend (who protected Bill Mueller in our keeper league last season) how true that statement is. The only good news for him was that he got the second pick this year. So, today we're sliding in headfirst to the Halo infield in Volume 1 of the Draft/Season Preview to see if there are any Angels that can help your fantasy team (and there are, despite the IF being the weakest part of the team this season).
1B: Darin Erstad
Tina Turner says Erstad is simply the best--if all that concerns you is speed. Better than all the rest. Of course, 1B being traditionally the deep power spot that it is, speed might not be a big factor for you there. DE will probably be the only leadoff 1B in MLB this year. He'll probably also be the only regular 1B that won't have 10+ HRs too. Gone are the '00 days of .355/25/100. Long gone. He's a ground ball machine now. Erstad will get on base and most likely score boatloads of runs with all those huge bats behind him, but it's very tough to take that power drought for any fantasy team at 1B. But he'll also likely run away with the 1B lead for SB. BOTTOM LINE: Erstad can really help you out--but only if you need SB and Rs out of the 1B position. Otherwise, stay clear.
2B: Chone Figgins
Figgins will be the everyday 2B with Adam Kennedy out until late-May and has the potential to take the spot from him full-time by the end of the year. While he's a great add at 2B, his greatest asset is his eligibility to play pretty much everywhere. Add his exceptional speed to that and he becomes a fantasy commodity that most folks clamor for. As with many speedsters, there's little power to speak of and his AVG is boosted by the fact that he's a line drive machine (LD% 25). Watch where he hits this season. If it's 9 or 1, the SBs could be enormous. If it's 2nd, he won't run as much hitting in front of Vlad. In ’04, he had 12 SB hitting 2nd in 288 ABs. But in 329 ABs in other spots, he stole 22 bases. BOTTOM LINE: Top 10 ML (2B), but a speed fireball wherever you need him.
SS: Orlando Cabrera
Cabrera got a lot of attention last season as a sleeper candidate at SS. He wasn't widely known in Montreal, but then ended up with world champion Boston to much acclaim. Now, even though he's still a top 10 or 12 SS, he's probably a little overrated. He does everything well, but nothing exceptionally well. He does make great contact (91%), but doesn't have a lot of power. He'll hit double-digit bombs, but the17 from '03 is probably too much to ask. One interesting part of his game that could thrive under Scioscia is the SB number. 20+ is not a stretch, but again lineup position is key. Don't expect many SBs if he's in a bit of a slump, because he doesn't walk much. BOTTOM LINE: Considering last year's sub-par 1st half, his numbers could rebound nicely. Top 10 ML, top 5 AL.
3B: Dallas McPherson/Robb Quinlan
Every year there are some rookies that garner so much attention and expectation that it seems that they are coveted more than many of the proven vets who are available in the draft. Dallas McPherson is one of those rookies this year. I'm never one to put a lot of stock into rookies, and the case is the same here. McPherson has prodigious power, there's no denying that. This is a guy who, with the amount of PT he's likely to get, could very easily jack 30 over the fence in his first season with room to grow. Easily. He could also easily hit .240. Also, on the negative, he's been sidelined with a back problem. Back problems have a terrible tendency to linger. Ask Trot Nixon. Ask Jay Gibbons. I'm not saying 2005 is ruined, but expectations must be tempered somewhat.
BOTTOM LINE: Dallas is only 24 this year, and one day he'll probably be an All-Star, but don't put him higher than ML top 12-15 for now. So who could benefit if he stays hurt? Robb Quinlan for starters. He can certainly hit for a higher average right now, evidenced by his .413 2nd half (albeit in a mere 92 ABs before getting injured). Obviously, .413 is over his head, but he has the possibility of being a nice surprise if he gets serious PT (note that I said "surprise" not "sleeper" to keep expectations in check). BOTTOM LINE: He makes good contact and has decent power, but drafting not knowing his level of PT (which, at this point, is impossible), would be a mistake. Keep him on your radar and pick him up as a possible .280/17-20 HR potential full-time.
C: The Brothers Molina
This is the one spot on the roster that the Halos have very little that can help you. The good news for fans of "real" baseball is that Jeff Mathis is on the way and will be the backstop within the next 2 years. The present fantasy state of the squatting half of the battery isn't nearly as nice. Bengie is definitely the better of the 2 and will receive the most PT. But he's very injury-prone; he's been limited to 5 ABs this spring with calf problems (the muscle, not the animal). He'll make contact (Ks, BBs are always low), but he's never slugged over .443 and he's slower than me, so he's got to find the gaps. His brother, Jose, posted decent numbers last year, but his 0.19 BB/K ratio tells you all you need to know about him. The OF's up next. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
1B: Darin Erstad
Tina Turner says Erstad is simply the best--if all that concerns you is speed. Better than all the rest. Of course, 1B being traditionally the deep power spot that it is, speed might not be a big factor for you there. DE will probably be the only leadoff 1B in MLB this year. He'll probably also be the only regular 1B that won't have 10+ HRs too. Gone are the '00 days of .355/25/100. Long gone. He's a ground ball machine now. Erstad will get on base and most likely score boatloads of runs with all those huge bats behind him, but it's very tough to take that power drought for any fantasy team at 1B. But he'll also likely run away with the 1B lead for SB. BOTTOM LINE: Erstad can really help you out--but only if you need SB and Rs out of the 1B position. Otherwise, stay clear.
2B: Chone Figgins
Figgins will be the everyday 2B with Adam Kennedy out until late-May and has the potential to take the spot from him full-time by the end of the year. While he's a great add at 2B, his greatest asset is his eligibility to play pretty much everywhere. Add his exceptional speed to that and he becomes a fantasy commodity that most folks clamor for. As with many speedsters, there's little power to speak of and his AVG is boosted by the fact that he's a line drive machine (LD% 25). Watch where he hits this season. If it's 9 or 1, the SBs could be enormous. If it's 2nd, he won't run as much hitting in front of Vlad. In ’04, he had 12 SB hitting 2nd in 288 ABs. But in 329 ABs in other spots, he stole 22 bases. BOTTOM LINE: Top 10 ML (2B), but a speed fireball wherever you need him.
SS: Orlando Cabrera
Cabrera got a lot of attention last season as a sleeper candidate at SS. He wasn't widely known in Montreal, but then ended up with world champion Boston to much acclaim. Now, even though he's still a top 10 or 12 SS, he's probably a little overrated. He does everything well, but nothing exceptionally well. He does make great contact (91%), but doesn't have a lot of power. He'll hit double-digit bombs, but the17 from '03 is probably too much to ask. One interesting part of his game that could thrive under Scioscia is the SB number. 20+ is not a stretch, but again lineup position is key. Don't expect many SBs if he's in a bit of a slump, because he doesn't walk much. BOTTOM LINE: Considering last year's sub-par 1st half, his numbers could rebound nicely. Top 10 ML, top 5 AL.
3B: Dallas McPherson/Robb Quinlan
Every year there are some rookies that garner so much attention and expectation that it seems that they are coveted more than many of the proven vets who are available in the draft. Dallas McPherson is one of those rookies this year. I'm never one to put a lot of stock into rookies, and the case is the same here. McPherson has prodigious power, there's no denying that. This is a guy who, with the amount of PT he's likely to get, could very easily jack 30 over the fence in his first season with room to grow. Easily. He could also easily hit .240. Also, on the negative, he's been sidelined with a back problem. Back problems have a terrible tendency to linger. Ask Trot Nixon. Ask Jay Gibbons. I'm not saying 2005 is ruined, but expectations must be tempered somewhat.
BOTTOM LINE: Dallas is only 24 this year, and one day he'll probably be an All-Star, but don't put him higher than ML top 12-15 for now. So who could benefit if he stays hurt? Robb Quinlan for starters. He can certainly hit for a higher average right now, evidenced by his .413 2nd half (albeit in a mere 92 ABs before getting injured). Obviously, .413 is over his head, but he has the possibility of being a nice surprise if he gets serious PT (note that I said "surprise" not "sleeper" to keep expectations in check). BOTTOM LINE: He makes good contact and has decent power, but drafting not knowing his level of PT (which, at this point, is impossible), would be a mistake. Keep him on your radar and pick him up as a possible .280/17-20 HR potential full-time.
C: The Brothers Molina
This is the one spot on the roster that the Halos have very little that can help you. The good news for fans of "real" baseball is that Jeff Mathis is on the way and will be the backstop within the next 2 years. The present fantasy state of the squatting half of the battery isn't nearly as nice. Bengie is definitely the better of the 2 and will receive the most PT. But he's very injury-prone; he's been limited to 5 ABs this spring with calf problems (the muscle, not the animal). He'll make contact (Ks, BBs are always low), but he's never slugged over .443 and he's slower than me, so he's got to find the gaps. His brother, Jose, posted decent numbers last year, but his 0.19 BB/K ratio tells you all you need to know about him. The OF's up next. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Tuesday, March 08, 2005
Don't Believe the Hype
I don’t know if you looked outside your window yesterday (or on ESPN), but there's baseball being played, people. That means today is a good day. But that's not the only reason I'm happy. There's another huge reason I'm happy. In today's world of "find the next Michael", "find the next Tiger", and even now "find the next LeBron", the media machine is set to all-hype-all-the-time. Jered Weaver was getting some of that treatment after last year's College World Series. He was viewed as a no-brainer top pick, yet ten teams passed on him simply because they feared his agent's demands (one Scott Boras) would be too much. Now an eleventh team has passed--the team that drafted him--the Angels. And I'm standing up and saluting them for doing it.
Yeah, he went 14-4 with a 120 K in 133.1 IP, not to mention a 7.2 K/BB ratio and, oh yeah, a 1.96 ERA in 2003. Yes, he even improved in '04 with a 15-1 mark, 213 more K in only 144 IP, a 10.1 K/BB ratio, and an even lower 1.62 ERA. Okay. Wow. Very solid. But there are a lot of pitchers who post great numbers in college and never make it in the bigs. All pitchers (as fantasy players well know) are a crap shoot, even the established ones at times. This is unproven talent no matter how you look at it, and the Angels weren’t willing to overpay no matter how good Weaver may seem. Scioscia told MLB.com that Weaver will have a good career, it just won't be with us. He's right. Weaver will probably be very good. But he doesn't deserve the 5 year, 10.5 million he was asking for.
Are you kidding me? 5 yr/10.5M? Boras eventually dropped it to 8 after he saw the Angels were basically telling him to go fly a kite, but that was as low as he would go. The Angels’ deadline to get a deal done passed, and they swiped the deal off the table. Rightly so. This isn't a team that acted as if money is much of a factor lately, but to give Weaver--who's never pitched a professional inning in his life--more than Shields, Donnelly, K-Rod, Gregg, and Lackey made combined last season in his first season would've been very foolish. That's almost the whole bullpen and one starter. It's very encouraging to see a team be fiscally sane even if they are among the higher payrolled clubs. Congrats to Stoneman and Co. Yes, Weaver would've been a great addition, but not at this price.
So, what's the fallout from this? Very little, for now. I know Boras can really be unreasonable to deal with, but I place this on the shoulders of Weaver. He's never played a day and he's already making himself out to be a prima donna. Not only that, but it he's showing me that he got a lot more maturing to do in his head before he'll be able to handle the responsibility of being a Major League player. You hear guys like me all the time say he's doing a disservice to the game by not appreciating the opportunity in front of him. I’m not saying that. I don't know Weaver. What he's doing is showing very little faith in his future performance by trying to get all the money he can now. Good luck elsewhere, Jered, but I've gotta be honest--I'm relieved it's over.
To the Diamond!
The Angels have four spring training games in the books now and Casey Kotchman has 7 RBI in 10 AB. There isn't a spot for him right now, but don't tell me that Darin Erstad isn't sweating just a little more than normal in the Arizona sun. Colon and Byrd made it through there first starts of the spring with no fireworks, although Colon did walk 2 and give up a run before getting the win. Lackey was absolutely rocked on his first trip to the mound, but it all means very little this early in the going. Currently, Cabrera, McPherson, and Jose Molina are all nursing minor injuries, but they're not worth picking up the phone and crying to your mother (maybe I'm the only one who does that when I have to DL a player).
Let's Get It Started?
The Halos got rid of their perennial primary leadoff option in the offseason by non-tendering David Eckstein, who eventually landed in St. Louis. Who'll be the black-eyed pea of the '05 club? No guarantees, but it may be Darin Erstad. Erstad has 91 ABs in the 1 hole the last 3 seasons, sporting a .231 AVG, but that's a pretty small sample to go with. He's got decent speed for that spot, but he's a much better 2 hitter, with what he's able to with the bat. Hitting Figgins in the top spot seems pretty obvious to me, with his .350 OBP and blazing speed, but for some reason Chone can't ever seem to get knighted or whatever it is you have to get to get legitimized in the bigs. I'd call 17 3B and 34 SB pretty legit though. If you're looking for something to watch early, it could be this.
Draft Guide is Percolating Onto Paper
It wasn’t as fast as I'd hoped, but I'm trying a different approach this year. I think it's better suited your needs, less conjecture and more meat and potatoes. Look for that soon (I better get it done soon--my first draft is this Saturday). If you've got any old Johnny Mathis CDs, break them out and fire up "It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year". You can even make up your own lyrics about singing at the 7th inning stretch when he starts crooning about caroling in the snow. You won't even notice it's a Christmas song (okay, I'm done with that, we got way off track). Enjoy the baseball, people, but remember--if someone ever offers you 5 million dollars to do something you've never done professionally (unless it's illegal), take it. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Yeah, he went 14-4 with a 120 K in 133.1 IP, not to mention a 7.2 K/BB ratio and, oh yeah, a 1.96 ERA in 2003. Yes, he even improved in '04 with a 15-1 mark, 213 more K in only 144 IP, a 10.1 K/BB ratio, and an even lower 1.62 ERA. Okay. Wow. Very solid. But there are a lot of pitchers who post great numbers in college and never make it in the bigs. All pitchers (as fantasy players well know) are a crap shoot, even the established ones at times. This is unproven talent no matter how you look at it, and the Angels weren’t willing to overpay no matter how good Weaver may seem. Scioscia told MLB.com that Weaver will have a good career, it just won't be with us. He's right. Weaver will probably be very good. But he doesn't deserve the 5 year, 10.5 million he was asking for.
Are you kidding me? 5 yr/10.5M? Boras eventually dropped it to 8 after he saw the Angels were basically telling him to go fly a kite, but that was as low as he would go. The Angels’ deadline to get a deal done passed, and they swiped the deal off the table. Rightly so. This isn't a team that acted as if money is much of a factor lately, but to give Weaver--who's never pitched a professional inning in his life--more than Shields, Donnelly, K-Rod, Gregg, and Lackey made combined last season in his first season would've been very foolish. That's almost the whole bullpen and one starter. It's very encouraging to see a team be fiscally sane even if they are among the higher payrolled clubs. Congrats to Stoneman and Co. Yes, Weaver would've been a great addition, but not at this price.
So, what's the fallout from this? Very little, for now. I know Boras can really be unreasonable to deal with, but I place this on the shoulders of Weaver. He's never played a day and he's already making himself out to be a prima donna. Not only that, but it he's showing me that he got a lot more maturing to do in his head before he'll be able to handle the responsibility of being a Major League player. You hear guys like me all the time say he's doing a disservice to the game by not appreciating the opportunity in front of him. I’m not saying that. I don't know Weaver. What he's doing is showing very little faith in his future performance by trying to get all the money he can now. Good luck elsewhere, Jered, but I've gotta be honest--I'm relieved it's over.
To the Diamond!
The Angels have four spring training games in the books now and Casey Kotchman has 7 RBI in 10 AB. There isn't a spot for him right now, but don't tell me that Darin Erstad isn't sweating just a little more than normal in the Arizona sun. Colon and Byrd made it through there first starts of the spring with no fireworks, although Colon did walk 2 and give up a run before getting the win. Lackey was absolutely rocked on his first trip to the mound, but it all means very little this early in the going. Currently, Cabrera, McPherson, and Jose Molina are all nursing minor injuries, but they're not worth picking up the phone and crying to your mother (maybe I'm the only one who does that when I have to DL a player).
Let's Get It Started?
The Halos got rid of their perennial primary leadoff option in the offseason by non-tendering David Eckstein, who eventually landed in St. Louis. Who'll be the black-eyed pea of the '05 club? No guarantees, but it may be Darin Erstad. Erstad has 91 ABs in the 1 hole the last 3 seasons, sporting a .231 AVG, but that's a pretty small sample to go with. He's got decent speed for that spot, but he's a much better 2 hitter, with what he's able to with the bat. Hitting Figgins in the top spot seems pretty obvious to me, with his .350 OBP and blazing speed, but for some reason Chone can't ever seem to get knighted or whatever it is you have to get to get legitimized in the bigs. I'd call 17 3B and 34 SB pretty legit though. If you're looking for something to watch early, it could be this.
Draft Guide is Percolating Onto Paper
It wasn’t as fast as I'd hoped, but I'm trying a different approach this year. I think it's better suited your needs, less conjecture and more meat and potatoes. Look for that soon (I better get it done soon--my first draft is this Saturday). If you've got any old Johnny Mathis CDs, break them out and fire up "It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year". You can even make up your own lyrics about singing at the 7th inning stretch when he starts crooning about caroling in the snow. You won't even notice it's a Christmas song (okay, I'm done with that, we got way off track). Enjoy the baseball, people, but remember--if someone ever offers you 5 million dollars to do something you've never done professionally (unless it's illegal), take it. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
