Tuesday, March 22, 2005
Draft/Season Preview Vol. 2
There are plenty of Disney clichés I could use when describing the Angels in the Outfield this season (By the way, did you remember that Academy Award winner Adrien Brody is in that film?), but I'll save you the pain and just start flapping my arms as a signal--a signal these boys can play. That fact most of you know, considering they're all vets and well-established stars (one of which picked up some impressive MVP hardware last season), but the following will provide you with some trends to recognize heading into your draft and also take a look a just how deep this outfield is beyond the starting lineup. If you missed Volume 1, the infield preview is available at Inside the Halo (insidethehalo.blogspot.com). I can be reached, as always, at insidethehalo@insightbb.com.
LF: Garret Anderson
Back pains and durability issues prompted the Halos to get Anderson out of CF (in favor of an older Steve Finley, but that's another story). Garret's played more games in LF than anywhere else and his arthritic back condition is going well--so far, so good. Also, he's certainly a little under the radar this season with the subpar numbers he posted in '04 because of injury. Also good. Everything points to a return to the old GA, who was always a solid 2nd OF. Check. Lately, though, he's been dealing with tendonitis in his left knee, which the Halos are downplaying, but any injury could keep GA from having the dependable stats that you could almost set your watch by. BOTTOM LINE: Everything looks good as long as the health stays strong. Could be quite undervalued at your draft.
CF: Steve Finley
There aren't many 40-year-old CFs that have any value left. Finley is the exception to the rule. Under a new 2-year deal, Steve-O (not that one) is looking to squeeze a couple more years out of his body for the Halos. His contact % was his highest in 5 years, so if his AVG doesn't rise (.271), it certainly won't fall. His stats certainly don't seem like they're from a quadragenarian. Two things to not bid on, however: 36 HR won't happen again. He's playing in a much better pitcher's park and his SLG was actually lower in ‘04 (.490) than his last two, when his HRs were in the 20s. Also, the single digit SBs are probably here to stay, even in Anaheim. After all, he is 40. BOTTOM LINE: Expect HRs in the 20s, but Rs and RBIs could skyrocket, depending on where he hits.
RF: Vladimir Guerrero
Here's the most in-depth analysis you need for Guerrero--draft him whenever possible. Last season's AL MVP is still making great contact despite becoming less patient at the plate (that seems to be an Angel-inherited trait). He's a complete masher who's still in his 20s and the sky is the limit as far as his stats are concerned. He's not had a whole year since his back woes and you can expect the double digit SBs to continue for now, although he won't post Figgins-like numbers in that department. He can help your team in every category and is simply one of the best players in either league. BOTTOM LINE: Capable of being a leader in any Triple Crown category. If he's available, you won't be sorry you called his number.
OF: Jeff DaVanon
Every year, I get mail on DaVanon. "Should I pick him up?" "Can he help me?" It's usually because he's filling in due to injury, and thus, that's been the story of DaVanon's career. What could he do with full time PT? He might steal 40 bags or hit 20 HR, but the problem with that potential is that it's likely to never be tapped in Anaheim. He's behind Finley, Anderson, Guerrero, and when Adam Kennedy is healthy, even Figgins. So Jeff will remain what he's always been--a stopgap, a surge protector, a flash in the pan. If he's getting PT, he'd be a good add for speed, but the likelihood of him seeing 300 ABs is non-existent with overall good Angel health. BOTTOM LINE: His power seems to have waned (.418 SLG in '04), but he's a patient hitter with speed.
OF: Juan Rivera
Rivera went from touted prospect in Pinstripes to baseball wasteland in Montreal and now shows up on the west coast at 26 with potential and a knapsack--and also no starting position. Yet. He could end up as the full-time DH depending on how DaVanon's situation and Kennedy's health. He's got a good bat, but it's been devoid of any outstanding power since his time in the minors. He makes great contact with .300 potential but his inconsistent performance against lefties and righties leaves him still in Enigmaville. With Salmon out for the season, the opportunity is there for him to finally get full-time PT at DH if he breaks through. BOTTOM LINE: He had a great 2nd half and is 26 this season, a great age for breakthrough performances. If he's in the lineup, he's a good gamble.
Spring Notes and Vol. 3
Kevin Gregg has a 2.57 ERA with 10 K and 3 BB in 7 IP this spring. Put this on top of last year's stats and Scioscia's willingness to use him often and it means you should be drafting him as a solid middle reliever. I have--twice. Scot Shields is poised for another excellent season in the pen, but keep an eye on his right shin. His shin splint was rediagnosed as a stress reaction, a step down from stress fracture. That could hurt his value. McPherson is hitting off a tee and could play this week. Still count on Quinlan for Opening Day but Dallas will be in Anaheim soon. Adam Kennedy is progressing lightning fast in his rehab. His could be back by early May, as much as a month early. The rotation is next. Two solid sleepers there. Stay tuned. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
LF: Garret Anderson
Back pains and durability issues prompted the Halos to get Anderson out of CF (in favor of an older Steve Finley, but that's another story). Garret's played more games in LF than anywhere else and his arthritic back condition is going well--so far, so good. Also, he's certainly a little under the radar this season with the subpar numbers he posted in '04 because of injury. Also good. Everything points to a return to the old GA, who was always a solid 2nd OF. Check. Lately, though, he's been dealing with tendonitis in his left knee, which the Halos are downplaying, but any injury could keep GA from having the dependable stats that you could almost set your watch by. BOTTOM LINE: Everything looks good as long as the health stays strong. Could be quite undervalued at your draft.
CF: Steve Finley
There aren't many 40-year-old CFs that have any value left. Finley is the exception to the rule. Under a new 2-year deal, Steve-O (not that one) is looking to squeeze a couple more years out of his body for the Halos. His contact % was his highest in 5 years, so if his AVG doesn't rise (.271), it certainly won't fall. His stats certainly don't seem like they're from a quadragenarian. Two things to not bid on, however: 36 HR won't happen again. He's playing in a much better pitcher's park and his SLG was actually lower in ‘04 (.490) than his last two, when his HRs were in the 20s. Also, the single digit SBs are probably here to stay, even in Anaheim. After all, he is 40. BOTTOM LINE: Expect HRs in the 20s, but Rs and RBIs could skyrocket, depending on where he hits.
RF: Vladimir Guerrero
Here's the most in-depth analysis you need for Guerrero--draft him whenever possible. Last season's AL MVP is still making great contact despite becoming less patient at the plate (that seems to be an Angel-inherited trait). He's a complete masher who's still in his 20s and the sky is the limit as far as his stats are concerned. He's not had a whole year since his back woes and you can expect the double digit SBs to continue for now, although he won't post Figgins-like numbers in that department. He can help your team in every category and is simply one of the best players in either league. BOTTOM LINE: Capable of being a leader in any Triple Crown category. If he's available, you won't be sorry you called his number.
OF: Jeff DaVanon
Every year, I get mail on DaVanon. "Should I pick him up?" "Can he help me?" It's usually because he's filling in due to injury, and thus, that's been the story of DaVanon's career. What could he do with full time PT? He might steal 40 bags or hit 20 HR, but the problem with that potential is that it's likely to never be tapped in Anaheim. He's behind Finley, Anderson, Guerrero, and when Adam Kennedy is healthy, even Figgins. So Jeff will remain what he's always been--a stopgap, a surge protector, a flash in the pan. If he's getting PT, he'd be a good add for speed, but the likelihood of him seeing 300 ABs is non-existent with overall good Angel health. BOTTOM LINE: His power seems to have waned (.418 SLG in '04), but he's a patient hitter with speed.
OF: Juan Rivera
Rivera went from touted prospect in Pinstripes to baseball wasteland in Montreal and now shows up on the west coast at 26 with potential and a knapsack--and also no starting position. Yet. He could end up as the full-time DH depending on how DaVanon's situation and Kennedy's health. He's got a good bat, but it's been devoid of any outstanding power since his time in the minors. He makes great contact with .300 potential but his inconsistent performance against lefties and righties leaves him still in Enigmaville. With Salmon out for the season, the opportunity is there for him to finally get full-time PT at DH if he breaks through. BOTTOM LINE: He had a great 2nd half and is 26 this season, a great age for breakthrough performances. If he's in the lineup, he's a good gamble.
Spring Notes and Vol. 3
Kevin Gregg has a 2.57 ERA with 10 K and 3 BB in 7 IP this spring. Put this on top of last year's stats and Scioscia's willingness to use him often and it means you should be drafting him as a solid middle reliever. I have--twice. Scot Shields is poised for another excellent season in the pen, but keep an eye on his right shin. His shin splint was rediagnosed as a stress reaction, a step down from stress fracture. That could hurt his value. McPherson is hitting off a tee and could play this week. Still count on Quinlan for Opening Day but Dallas will be in Anaheim soon. Adam Kennedy is progressing lightning fast in his rehab. His could be back by early May, as much as a month early. The rotation is next. Two solid sleepers there. Stay tuned. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
