Tuesday, March 29, 2005
Draft/Season Preview Vol. 3
Mike Scioscia calls his starting rotation "championship-caliber" this season, according to the team website, and I would have to agree with him. No, they don't have any huge names (a huge ace, maybe, but his name isn't huge), but this rotation certainly has the talent to lead the Halos to a postseason run at the World Series. Spring (at least in baseball terms) is almost finished, and in a week we'll all be treating ourselves to games that actually count. But before you get too excited and begin doing cartwheels near your computer screen, let's take a look at this championship-caliber rotation since the beginning order is set now. Which of these guys can help you? Who needs a short leash? Volumes 1 & 2 (IF & OF) are available at insidethehalo.blogspot.com.
Bartolo Colon
His battery mate Bengie Molina may have dropped 22 pounds over the winter, but I'm not sure BC had the same luck. How big his pitching will be this season is all fantasy owners are concerned with though. He's had a solid spring and his 13-5, 4.07 ERA 2nd half has been well covered by now. I won't mention the numbers from '04's 1st half, because you might run away screaming. Suffice it to say that a lot of his peripherals looked the same on both ends of the season. Fly balls were just leaving at an inordinate pace. His FB% has been over 40 the last 2 years. So, it shouldn't surprise you that they've been his worst in terms of HRs. Bring that down, he's the Colon of old. BOTTOM LINE: Still a frontliner, BC could (and probably will) be undervalued to begin the year.
Jarrod Washburn
Wash is serviceable. That's the most succinct way to put it. I wouldn't want him on my fantasy roster, but the bottom line is he can deliver the occasional good start. Serviceable. He's got solid control, he gets lefties out (except David Ortiz in the ALDS--UPDATE: The ball is still going), and he'll certainly get run support. That's how he started 8-3 in '04 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Here's something--his FB% dropped by 10 in '04. That could be very good news is that trend continues. The rest is no good though. He all finesse with little ability to mow anyone down. He had a solid start this weekend, but he’s so inconsistent you don’t know whether he'll retire 10 in a row or get rocked. BOTTOM LINE: I wouldn't want him unless I was in a really bad pinch. Too unpredictable.
John Lackey
John Lackey should be applauded. And he was--for a half season. Remember 2002, when the Angels won the Series, and was key in the drive for the championship? Remember Game 7? The honeymoon's over for Lackey. Another rookie that year (one Francisco Rodriguez) hit the ground running, so he's been consistently applauded while Lackey is generally maligned--maligned to a smart owner's benefit. Lackey is just 26. He's got the tools and the talent. He's just taking longer to mature. 2005 may see a 2nd honeymoon for JL. His K/9 went up to 8.5 in the 2nd half last year. From July on, he had 2 bad starts. BOTTOM LINE: I wouldn't be the least bit shy about drafting Lackey in the as a 2 or 3 in your rotation. Here's a personal stat for you--4 drafts, 3 Lackeys for me.
Paul Byrd
Byrd a finesse guy who got the Leo Mazzone Extreme Makeover last year, so that puts him on the radar for most owners. But he's only had 114 IP since Tommy John surgery in 2003. What's the '05 forecast? Well, bottom line is that he has absolutely fabulous control. If you want to get on against Byrd, you gonna have to hit your way there. The problem is many folks do--especially the lefties. They hit .329 against him last year. The redeemer was the .219 against righties. PB won't fan a lot, but if he can keep it around 6.0 K/9 and keep the ball on the ground more (which he's trying to do by adding a sinker), he could have a successful season. BOTTOM LINE: I would put him on the end of a rotation--he'll get run support and I can't see him hurting you.
Kelvim Escobar
He’s in the 5 hole only until the Halos can work him further up in the rotation. He had a slow start this spring with a sore shoulder. That's fine now. He's soon be #2, but let me say this--Kelvim Escobar is getting ready to emerge. Emerge sounds dramatic, I know, but it's the truth. You're looking at an 8.3 K/9 with better-than-ever control, he does the best job in the rotation at keeping the ball in the yard. He's 29, entering great year for a pitchers, his role is defined, he's got a great offense behind him--there's very little to not like. His OBA in '04 was .247. BOTTOM LINE: If you haven't drafted Kelvim Escobar, I'd try and get him while some folks still think he's a "common", as they say in baseball card circles. Kelvim Escobar is about to emerge.
Spring Notes and Vol. 4
A recent pole at the Angels official site asked who should hit leadoff. The fans (with whom I agree) said Figgins overwhelmingly. Scioscia says Erstad. DaVanon will hit 2nd for now at DH. Pick him up for speed and because he's hitting in front of Vlad, GA, and Finley. That brings us to Cabrera at 6. Can you say "truckloads of RBI"? McPherson had 8 ABs in 2 minor league games, 1 hit. Things are good, but Quinlan will probably hit 7 on Opening Day. Molina will be 8 and Figgins will hit 9, which to some might seem like putting the tortoise directly in the hare's path. Better run fast, Bengie. The last issue of the Preview will look at the bullpen. Percival won’t be missed. SIX (!) draftable players there. I'm not kidding. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Bartolo Colon
His battery mate Bengie Molina may have dropped 22 pounds over the winter, but I'm not sure BC had the same luck. How big his pitching will be this season is all fantasy owners are concerned with though. He's had a solid spring and his 13-5, 4.07 ERA 2nd half has been well covered by now. I won't mention the numbers from '04's 1st half, because you might run away screaming. Suffice it to say that a lot of his peripherals looked the same on both ends of the season. Fly balls were just leaving at an inordinate pace. His FB% has been over 40 the last 2 years. So, it shouldn't surprise you that they've been his worst in terms of HRs. Bring that down, he's the Colon of old. BOTTOM LINE: Still a frontliner, BC could (and probably will) be undervalued to begin the year.
Jarrod Washburn
Wash is serviceable. That's the most succinct way to put it. I wouldn't want him on my fantasy roster, but the bottom line is he can deliver the occasional good start. Serviceable. He's got solid control, he gets lefties out (except David Ortiz in the ALDS--UPDATE: The ball is still going), and he'll certainly get run support. That's how he started 8-3 in '04 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Here's something--his FB% dropped by 10 in '04. That could be very good news is that trend continues. The rest is no good though. He all finesse with little ability to mow anyone down. He had a solid start this weekend, but he’s so inconsistent you don’t know whether he'll retire 10 in a row or get rocked. BOTTOM LINE: I wouldn't want him unless I was in a really bad pinch. Too unpredictable.
John Lackey
John Lackey should be applauded. And he was--for a half season. Remember 2002, when the Angels won the Series, and was key in the drive for the championship? Remember Game 7? The honeymoon's over for Lackey. Another rookie that year (one Francisco Rodriguez) hit the ground running, so he's been consistently applauded while Lackey is generally maligned--maligned to a smart owner's benefit. Lackey is just 26. He's got the tools and the talent. He's just taking longer to mature. 2005 may see a 2nd honeymoon for JL. His K/9 went up to 8.5 in the 2nd half last year. From July on, he had 2 bad starts. BOTTOM LINE: I wouldn't be the least bit shy about drafting Lackey in the as a 2 or 3 in your rotation. Here's a personal stat for you--4 drafts, 3 Lackeys for me.
Paul Byrd
Byrd a finesse guy who got the Leo Mazzone Extreme Makeover last year, so that puts him on the radar for most owners. But he's only had 114 IP since Tommy John surgery in 2003. What's the '05 forecast? Well, bottom line is that he has absolutely fabulous control. If you want to get on against Byrd, you gonna have to hit your way there. The problem is many folks do--especially the lefties. They hit .329 against him last year. The redeemer was the .219 against righties. PB won't fan a lot, but if he can keep it around 6.0 K/9 and keep the ball on the ground more (which he's trying to do by adding a sinker), he could have a successful season. BOTTOM LINE: I would put him on the end of a rotation--he'll get run support and I can't see him hurting you.
Kelvim Escobar
He’s in the 5 hole only until the Halos can work him further up in the rotation. He had a slow start this spring with a sore shoulder. That's fine now. He's soon be #2, but let me say this--Kelvim Escobar is getting ready to emerge. Emerge sounds dramatic, I know, but it's the truth. You're looking at an 8.3 K/9 with better-than-ever control, he does the best job in the rotation at keeping the ball in the yard. He's 29, entering great year for a pitchers, his role is defined, he's got a great offense behind him--there's very little to not like. His OBA in '04 was .247. BOTTOM LINE: If you haven't drafted Kelvim Escobar, I'd try and get him while some folks still think he's a "common", as they say in baseball card circles. Kelvim Escobar is about to emerge.
Spring Notes and Vol. 4
A recent pole at the Angels official site asked who should hit leadoff. The fans (with whom I agree) said Figgins overwhelmingly. Scioscia says Erstad. DaVanon will hit 2nd for now at DH. Pick him up for speed and because he's hitting in front of Vlad, GA, and Finley. That brings us to Cabrera at 6. Can you say "truckloads of RBI"? McPherson had 8 ABs in 2 minor league games, 1 hit. Things are good, but Quinlan will probably hit 7 on Opening Day. Molina will be 8 and Figgins will hit 9, which to some might seem like putting the tortoise directly in the hare's path. Better run fast, Bengie. The last issue of the Preview will look at the bullpen. Percival won’t be missed. SIX (!) draftable players there. I'm not kidding. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
