Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Chicken or Egg? Winning or Chemistry?
The debate may always rage on which begets what, and similarly, it's very easy to cover a team that's good even when you're not getting paid (or is it easier to not get paid when you're covering a good team?). Anyway, one linear statement that is for certain in fantasy baseball is that it's very hard to have a good season if you don't have a good draft. Ask my best friend (who protected Bill Mueller in our keeper league last season) how true that statement is. The only good news for him was that he got the second pick this year. So, today we're sliding in headfirst to the Halo infield in Volume 1 of the Draft/Season Preview to see if there are any Angels that can help your fantasy team (and there are, despite the IF being the weakest part of the team this season).
1B: Darin Erstad
Tina Turner says Erstad is simply the best--if all that concerns you is speed. Better than all the rest. Of course, 1B being traditionally the deep power spot that it is, speed might not be a big factor for you there. DE will probably be the only leadoff 1B in MLB this year. He'll probably also be the only regular 1B that won't have 10+ HRs too. Gone are the '00 days of .355/25/100. Long gone. He's a ground ball machine now. Erstad will get on base and most likely score boatloads of runs with all those huge bats behind him, but it's very tough to take that power drought for any fantasy team at 1B. But he'll also likely run away with the 1B lead for SB. BOTTOM LINE: Erstad can really help you out--but only if you need SB and Rs out of the 1B position. Otherwise, stay clear.
2B: Chone Figgins
Figgins will be the everyday 2B with Adam Kennedy out until late-May and has the potential to take the spot from him full-time by the end of the year. While he's a great add at 2B, his greatest asset is his eligibility to play pretty much everywhere. Add his exceptional speed to that and he becomes a fantasy commodity that most folks clamor for. As with many speedsters, there's little power to speak of and his AVG is boosted by the fact that he's a line drive machine (LD% 25). Watch where he hits this season. If it's 9 or 1, the SBs could be enormous. If it's 2nd, he won't run as much hitting in front of Vlad. In ’04, he had 12 SB hitting 2nd in 288 ABs. But in 329 ABs in other spots, he stole 22 bases. BOTTOM LINE: Top 10 ML (2B), but a speed fireball wherever you need him.
SS: Orlando Cabrera
Cabrera got a lot of attention last season as a sleeper candidate at SS. He wasn't widely known in Montreal, but then ended up with world champion Boston to much acclaim. Now, even though he's still a top 10 or 12 SS, he's probably a little overrated. He does everything well, but nothing exceptionally well. He does make great contact (91%), but doesn't have a lot of power. He'll hit double-digit bombs, but the17 from '03 is probably too much to ask. One interesting part of his game that could thrive under Scioscia is the SB number. 20+ is not a stretch, but again lineup position is key. Don't expect many SBs if he's in a bit of a slump, because he doesn't walk much. BOTTOM LINE: Considering last year's sub-par 1st half, his numbers could rebound nicely. Top 10 ML, top 5 AL.
3B: Dallas McPherson/Robb Quinlan
Every year there are some rookies that garner so much attention and expectation that it seems that they are coveted more than many of the proven vets who are available in the draft. Dallas McPherson is one of those rookies this year. I'm never one to put a lot of stock into rookies, and the case is the same here. McPherson has prodigious power, there's no denying that. This is a guy who, with the amount of PT he's likely to get, could very easily jack 30 over the fence in his first season with room to grow. Easily. He could also easily hit .240. Also, on the negative, he's been sidelined with a back problem. Back problems have a terrible tendency to linger. Ask Trot Nixon. Ask Jay Gibbons. I'm not saying 2005 is ruined, but expectations must be tempered somewhat.
BOTTOM LINE: Dallas is only 24 this year, and one day he'll probably be an All-Star, but don't put him higher than ML top 12-15 for now. So who could benefit if he stays hurt? Robb Quinlan for starters. He can certainly hit for a higher average right now, evidenced by his .413 2nd half (albeit in a mere 92 ABs before getting injured). Obviously, .413 is over his head, but he has the possibility of being a nice surprise if he gets serious PT (note that I said "surprise" not "sleeper" to keep expectations in check). BOTTOM LINE: He makes good contact and has decent power, but drafting not knowing his level of PT (which, at this point, is impossible), would be a mistake. Keep him on your radar and pick him up as a possible .280/17-20 HR potential full-time.
C: The Brothers Molina
This is the one spot on the roster that the Halos have very little that can help you. The good news for fans of "real" baseball is that Jeff Mathis is on the way and will be the backstop within the next 2 years. The present fantasy state of the squatting half of the battery isn't nearly as nice. Bengie is definitely the better of the 2 and will receive the most PT. But he's very injury-prone; he's been limited to 5 ABs this spring with calf problems (the muscle, not the animal). He'll make contact (Ks, BBs are always low), but he's never slugged over .443 and he's slower than me, so he's got to find the gaps. His brother, Jose, posted decent numbers last year, but his 0.19 BB/K ratio tells you all you need to know about him. The OF's up next. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
1B: Darin Erstad
Tina Turner says Erstad is simply the best--if all that concerns you is speed. Better than all the rest. Of course, 1B being traditionally the deep power spot that it is, speed might not be a big factor for you there. DE will probably be the only leadoff 1B in MLB this year. He'll probably also be the only regular 1B that won't have 10+ HRs too. Gone are the '00 days of .355/25/100. Long gone. He's a ground ball machine now. Erstad will get on base and most likely score boatloads of runs with all those huge bats behind him, but it's very tough to take that power drought for any fantasy team at 1B. But he'll also likely run away with the 1B lead for SB. BOTTOM LINE: Erstad can really help you out--but only if you need SB and Rs out of the 1B position. Otherwise, stay clear.
2B: Chone Figgins
Figgins will be the everyday 2B with Adam Kennedy out until late-May and has the potential to take the spot from him full-time by the end of the year. While he's a great add at 2B, his greatest asset is his eligibility to play pretty much everywhere. Add his exceptional speed to that and he becomes a fantasy commodity that most folks clamor for. As with many speedsters, there's little power to speak of and his AVG is boosted by the fact that he's a line drive machine (LD% 25). Watch where he hits this season. If it's 9 or 1, the SBs could be enormous. If it's 2nd, he won't run as much hitting in front of Vlad. In ’04, he had 12 SB hitting 2nd in 288 ABs. But in 329 ABs in other spots, he stole 22 bases. BOTTOM LINE: Top 10 ML (2B), but a speed fireball wherever you need him.
SS: Orlando Cabrera
Cabrera got a lot of attention last season as a sleeper candidate at SS. He wasn't widely known in Montreal, but then ended up with world champion Boston to much acclaim. Now, even though he's still a top 10 or 12 SS, he's probably a little overrated. He does everything well, but nothing exceptionally well. He does make great contact (91%), but doesn't have a lot of power. He'll hit double-digit bombs, but the17 from '03 is probably too much to ask. One interesting part of his game that could thrive under Scioscia is the SB number. 20+ is not a stretch, but again lineup position is key. Don't expect many SBs if he's in a bit of a slump, because he doesn't walk much. BOTTOM LINE: Considering last year's sub-par 1st half, his numbers could rebound nicely. Top 10 ML, top 5 AL.
3B: Dallas McPherson/Robb Quinlan
Every year there are some rookies that garner so much attention and expectation that it seems that they are coveted more than many of the proven vets who are available in the draft. Dallas McPherson is one of those rookies this year. I'm never one to put a lot of stock into rookies, and the case is the same here. McPherson has prodigious power, there's no denying that. This is a guy who, with the amount of PT he's likely to get, could very easily jack 30 over the fence in his first season with room to grow. Easily. He could also easily hit .240. Also, on the negative, he's been sidelined with a back problem. Back problems have a terrible tendency to linger. Ask Trot Nixon. Ask Jay Gibbons. I'm not saying 2005 is ruined, but expectations must be tempered somewhat.
BOTTOM LINE: Dallas is only 24 this year, and one day he'll probably be an All-Star, but don't put him higher than ML top 12-15 for now. So who could benefit if he stays hurt? Robb Quinlan for starters. He can certainly hit for a higher average right now, evidenced by his .413 2nd half (albeit in a mere 92 ABs before getting injured). Obviously, .413 is over his head, but he has the possibility of being a nice surprise if he gets serious PT (note that I said "surprise" not "sleeper" to keep expectations in check). BOTTOM LINE: He makes good contact and has decent power, but drafting not knowing his level of PT (which, at this point, is impossible), would be a mistake. Keep him on your radar and pick him up as a possible .280/17-20 HR potential full-time.
C: The Brothers Molina
This is the one spot on the roster that the Halos have very little that can help you. The good news for fans of "real" baseball is that Jeff Mathis is on the way and will be the backstop within the next 2 years. The present fantasy state of the squatting half of the battery isn't nearly as nice. Bengie is definitely the better of the 2 and will receive the most PT. But he's very injury-prone; he's been limited to 5 ABs this spring with calf problems (the muscle, not the animal). He'll make contact (Ks, BBs are always low), but he's never slugged over .443 and he's slower than me, so he's got to find the gaps. His brother, Jose, posted decent numbers last year, but his 0.19 BB/K ratio tells you all you need to know about him. The OF's up next. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
