Tuesday, July 27, 2004
Spinning Their Wheels
Since June 3, when the Angels were 13 games over .500, matching their highest mark of the season, they've been the model of a team that absolutely just can't get anything going. They've managed two winning streaks of three or longer, both of those in the last 17 days, one of four games (which was interrupted by the All-Star Break) and one of three last week. They followed the first one up by losing 5 of 6, and thus far have followed the second one up with two consecutive losses. This is a team that will win 1, lose 2. Win 2, lose 2. Win 2, lose 3. It's not a good pattern. And while they are still very much in both the AL West and Wild Card races, the time to catch a groove is now. Five back of the Rangers, with a season record of 3-7 against them, makes the mud look pretty deep.
Some of the consistency the Angels lack is, of course due to the numerous injuries they've had over the course of '04. For example, last Friday against Seattle, Tim Salmon hit 8th in the order as the DH. Saturday, because of injuries, he was in the 3 hole. Sunday? Back to 7th. Last night? 3rd. This is a perfect example of the Angels season. Not trying to sound like ESPN's "The Rick", but it reminds me of my softball team. We're, uh, not very good. But one of the main reasons is because of lineup inconsistency. We have a different lineup every game. No one seems to play the same position more than twice. Does this sound familiar? The Halos have used 3 C, 5 1B, 4 2B, 4 SS, 5 3B, and at least 4 people at every OF position. Oh, yeah--and 13 DHs.
About That Lineup. . .
With Vlad and Anderson both out, the offense looks pretty meager. Salmon and his .254 average hitting 3rd. Erstad and his .402 SLG hitting 5th. Jose Guillen can't drive in everyone--he's certainly made an attempt with 9 RBI in the last week. When will more firepower return? Vlad may see action today, according to Scioscy and could very well start tomorrow. Garret Anderson's case seems to be a little more delicate, as there is no exact science for measuring a sore groin. He pulled himself out of Sunday's game to be safe, so I might expect him to sit the rest of the Texas series (which doesn't bode well for beating the Rangers). The injuries have been bad all year, but these two in a series where the Angels can either make up big ground or lose it, sure have happened at a bad time.
Does It Ever End?
I'm checking with the AMA to see if I will officially have my medical license at the conclusion of this season after covering the Angels' wide range of injuries. Jeff DaVanon recently became the 12th player the Angels relegated to the disabled list this season, beating out last season by 1 and tying '02's mark of 12. It seems that it would behoove the Halos to start ordering their MRIs, X-rays, band-aids, and Icy Hot by the dozen. There's gotta be some kind of discount for that. DaVanon is experiencing back spasms, which prompted the move, although there hasn't been any indication he won't be ready to go when he's eligible to be reactivated on August 5th.
I Guess It Doesn't
In other injury news, Troy Glaus has been able to swing a bat and do some light conditioning on his shoulder in Arizona, where he's currently rehabbing. Does that mean you should add on the assumption that he'll come back and give you 80 HRs before the end of the season? Uh, no. Don't get too excited. If. . .wait. . ."IF" he comes back, it will be as a DH only and that may even be too optimistic. I wouldn't be expecting TG at the ball park until '05. Also, Raul Mondesi has not resumed any baseball activities since reinjuring his quad during his minor league rehab. Don't look for Raul back anytime soon either, as the Angels have currently dropped all timetables related to him. For now, look for Josh Paul to get more looks in left until the regular OF is completely healed.
Yet Another No-Name
Robb Quinlan has stepped in at 3B and done a great job while Three Bags Figgins has had to venture back out to CF. In the last 5 games, RQ is 11-21 (.524), with 1 HR and 6 RBI. The last 2 years at AAA Salt Lake, he's shown the propensity for talent, with a very good season in '02. He regressed somewhat last year, but his MLB stats in limited time weren't terrible. He managed a .287 AVG in 94 ABs in '03 with Anaheim, although his other stats weren't that impressive. He's shown power in the past and although he doesn't look to have a great MLB future even at only 27, he's certainly a reasonable stopgap for Figgins while he mans center. Should you add him? As a 3B, he's not a bad add now when he's hot, but he'll sit soon. I'd pass, but keep him in mind should more injuries occur.
Benson and Center Field
The Angels wisely took themselves out of any contention for Kris Benson. He certainly wouldn't be an upgrade to what the Angels have. It looks like Anaheim against New York in the Unit War, Anaheim's prospects versus George's money. Randy would probably rather go north, but Arizona may not cave to the cash. They want players. . . Be sure to visit my new baseball commentary site, Center Field. There is also a link to it on the at the top of the sidebar. Check out the first article and be sure to chime in with your comments. It's geared to be an interactive site to talk baseball and have great discussion. Grab your glove and stop by Center Field. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Some of the consistency the Angels lack is, of course due to the numerous injuries they've had over the course of '04. For example, last Friday against Seattle, Tim Salmon hit 8th in the order as the DH. Saturday, because of injuries, he was in the 3 hole. Sunday? Back to 7th. Last night? 3rd. This is a perfect example of the Angels season. Not trying to sound like ESPN's "The Rick", but it reminds me of my softball team. We're, uh, not very good. But one of the main reasons is because of lineup inconsistency. We have a different lineup every game. No one seems to play the same position more than twice. Does this sound familiar? The Halos have used 3 C, 5 1B, 4 2B, 4 SS, 5 3B, and at least 4 people at every OF position. Oh, yeah--and 13 DHs.
About That Lineup. . .
With Vlad and Anderson both out, the offense looks pretty meager. Salmon and his .254 average hitting 3rd. Erstad and his .402 SLG hitting 5th. Jose Guillen can't drive in everyone--he's certainly made an attempt with 9 RBI in the last week. When will more firepower return? Vlad may see action today, according to Scioscy and could very well start tomorrow. Garret Anderson's case seems to be a little more delicate, as there is no exact science for measuring a sore groin. He pulled himself out of Sunday's game to be safe, so I might expect him to sit the rest of the Texas series (which doesn't bode well for beating the Rangers). The injuries have been bad all year, but these two in a series where the Angels can either make up big ground or lose it, sure have happened at a bad time.
Does It Ever End?
I'm checking with the AMA to see if I will officially have my medical license at the conclusion of this season after covering the Angels' wide range of injuries. Jeff DaVanon recently became the 12th player the Angels relegated to the disabled list this season, beating out last season by 1 and tying '02's mark of 12. It seems that it would behoove the Halos to start ordering their MRIs, X-rays, band-aids, and Icy Hot by the dozen. There's gotta be some kind of discount for that. DaVanon is experiencing back spasms, which prompted the move, although there hasn't been any indication he won't be ready to go when he's eligible to be reactivated on August 5th.
I Guess It Doesn't
In other injury news, Troy Glaus has been able to swing a bat and do some light conditioning on his shoulder in Arizona, where he's currently rehabbing. Does that mean you should add on the assumption that he'll come back and give you 80 HRs before the end of the season? Uh, no. Don't get too excited. If. . .wait. . ."IF" he comes back, it will be as a DH only and that may even be too optimistic. I wouldn't be expecting TG at the ball park until '05. Also, Raul Mondesi has not resumed any baseball activities since reinjuring his quad during his minor league rehab. Don't look for Raul back anytime soon either, as the Angels have currently dropped all timetables related to him. For now, look for Josh Paul to get more looks in left until the regular OF is completely healed.
Yet Another No-Name
Robb Quinlan has stepped in at 3B and done a great job while Three Bags Figgins has had to venture back out to CF. In the last 5 games, RQ is 11-21 (.524), with 1 HR and 6 RBI. The last 2 years at AAA Salt Lake, he's shown the propensity for talent, with a very good season in '02. He regressed somewhat last year, but his MLB stats in limited time weren't terrible. He managed a .287 AVG in 94 ABs in '03 with Anaheim, although his other stats weren't that impressive. He's shown power in the past and although he doesn't look to have a great MLB future even at only 27, he's certainly a reasonable stopgap for Figgins while he mans center. Should you add him? As a 3B, he's not a bad add now when he's hot, but he'll sit soon. I'd pass, but keep him in mind should more injuries occur.
Benson and Center Field
The Angels wisely took themselves out of any contention for Kris Benson. He certainly wouldn't be an upgrade to what the Angels have. It looks like Anaheim against New York in the Unit War, Anaheim's prospects versus George's money. Randy would probably rather go north, but Arizona may not cave to the cash. They want players. . . Be sure to visit my new baseball commentary site, Center Field. There is also a link to it on the at the top of the sidebar. Check out the first article and be sure to chime in with your comments. It's geared to be an interactive site to talk baseball and have great discussion. Grab your glove and stop by Center Field. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Thursday, July 22, 2004
Center Field
Recently, I had to stop producing both Halo Daily and Reds Report due to lack of time to give daily updates now that I'm covering two teams for ESPN Fantasy Games. However, I now would like to announce the christening of yet another venture in the network here called Center Field. The schedule of production is still up in the air, but this will be a place that's more than just talk about the Reds and Angels. It's a place to come and talk all baseball. Occasionally (like when the outfielders gather in CF during a pitching change), the topics will veer to other issues, but you'll always be free to interact and respond to me and others at the site. Considering I'll be facilitating the site, I'm naming myself as the everday starting center fielder, but this outfield needs plenty of baseball fans to shag flies, talk shop, and raise the level of discussion.
Come on over to Center Field. Leave me a note. Let's starting honing our skills.
See you soon.
Come on over to Center Field. Leave me a note. Let's starting honing our skills.
See you soon.
Wednesday, July 21, 2004
Randy, Oh My Randy
Cat Stevens isn't the only one singin' about Randy lately. Angels fans and the LA area media would like to see Randy in Anaheim. Jarrod Washburn made a comment that the Angels would be "stupid" not to explore it. Stoneman even seemed to infer that although he and Moreno had ruled it out earlier, it might not be impossible that Randy would end up with a Halo. However, on the other side, no one from the Angels was at the BOB last night to watch the Unit pitch as they had been before. The D-Backs want at least two minor league studs for his services. McPherson won't be traded, and it's unlikely that Kotchman or Ervin Santana will either, but if Arizona will take Jeff Mathis and lesser prospects, it's not unreasonable to that RJ's Diamondback eyes will come to CA.
Why the Angels Need Randy, Oh My Randy
Aaron Sele's ERA is 7+ since returning from the DL. Hope you listened, 'cause I called that. Jarrod Washburn was lit for 10 runs (9 ER) yesterday against the Tribe. Called that too. Wash got lit for 13 hits on 100 pitches, 65 for strikes. He's throwing strikes--they're just meat. Probably why he gave up 4 bombs too. His last 5 starts, his K/9 is 4.0. Know this--he will never be successful with that mark. Ever. Back to Sele. How he's undefeated is a marvel of modern science. Wait, I know. It's probably that 8.4 Run Support he's gotten in those same four starts. And his K/9 isn't pretty either. Last 5 starts? 2.7. That's worse than Jimmy Gobble. Did I mention that Bartolo Colon's ERA is still over 6? Should they get him, could Randy pitch every day? It's worth asking.
. . .If the Price is Right
Let's play Showcase Showdown here. Pretend my name's Bob Barker.
Showcase #1: you have a pitcher with a K/9 of 4.26 for the year, ERA of 4.50, BAA of .279, and a K/BB of 1.29.
Showcase #2: You have a pitcher with a K/9 of 7.09 for the year, ERA of 4.09, BAA of .257 and a K/BB of 2.08.
Who's in your starting rotation, considering they can both start? If you picked #1, quit reading now and take up fantasy fly-fishing or needlepoint. Ramon Ortiz is #2 and while he's not the answer to all the Angel's rotation problems, he could certainly help instead of coming in with his mop after Sele and Co. get done slopping up the place.
Okay, let's play again. This time with relievers.
Showcase #1: A reliever with a 13.78 K/9, which leads the AL, a BAA of .178, a WHIP under 1, and a K/BB of 4.4.
Showcase #2: Features a reliever with a 5.47 K/9, a BAA of .263 (the highest in that reliever's career, by the way), a WHIP of 1.62, and a K/BB of 1.07. Oh, yeah--and Showcase #1 has a more than two run advantage in ERA over Showcase #2.
Now--who's your closer? Did you select Showcase #2? Again, get the needlepoint, then. These aren't hard decisions. Steve Bisheff commented today in the OC Register that Percival's place as greatest Angel reliever of all-time is safe for now and what he's doing this year isn't adding to it. K-Rod needs the 9th. You might argue that Percival has only blown 4 saves. I would counter with: Have you looked at the Showcases?
Offensive Experiment a Bust?
Back on July 6, Scioscy switched Vlad and Anderson in the lineup to try and find some "continuity" and possibly give the Angels some better options with men in scoring position. After 13 games, the stats of the two Angel sluggers in their new positions look like this--Anderson: .235, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 13 K. Guerrero: .269, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB, 10 K. Yes, they're certainly both driving in the runs, but is that enough? They're also both striking out more and hitting for less average. Vlad has run more with Guillen/DaVanon hitting behind him instead of Anderson. I suppose it's all a really small sample size, but the fact is it might behoove Scioscy to return to the original order where both were certainly flourishing--at least average-wise--much more than they are now.
Guillen OK, Raul Not
Jose has sat the last three games with lower back pain and one other "unspecified" non-injury related problem, but Scioscy says he expects him to be ready to go tonight and a DL stint will not be necessary. If you've been sitting Guillen, it's probably safe to put him back in the lineup for now. He'll most likely hit well immediately. Raul Mondesi, on the other hand, will not be hitting (at least in the majors) anytime soon. He reaggravated his quad during his minor league rehab and will take some more time off. Scioscy said on the team's website that any timetable for his return would have to be completely refigured. For you silly 11% in mixed leagues and 73% in AL leagues who just won't let the dream die, he's going to be sitting on your IR for a while.
Top and Bottom
For the next 2 weeks, the Angels will be playing divisional foes from both ends of the division. That starts tonight in Texas with Chuck Norris' team. Three more big games against Texas and 7 against Seattle the Angels must take advantage of follow this short two-game set. I'm still a little leery of this Ranger/Angel matchup. The pitching matchups set up fairly well for the Halos, but tomorrow night's game will be very interesting. Colon vs. Ricardo Rodriguez. Both talented, both huge question marks. So far, Texas has won 5 of 7. Flyball pitchers (like Colon) typically don't fare well in Arlington. We'll see. Tonight, Drese is due for a thumping (2.5 K/9 last 5 starts). Escobar typically keeps it in the park too. Could be a chance to get 2. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Why the Angels Need Randy, Oh My Randy
Aaron Sele's ERA is 7+ since returning from the DL. Hope you listened, 'cause I called that. Jarrod Washburn was lit for 10 runs (9 ER) yesterday against the Tribe. Called that too. Wash got lit for 13 hits on 100 pitches, 65 for strikes. He's throwing strikes--they're just meat. Probably why he gave up 4 bombs too. His last 5 starts, his K/9 is 4.0. Know this--he will never be successful with that mark. Ever. Back to Sele. How he's undefeated is a marvel of modern science. Wait, I know. It's probably that 8.4 Run Support he's gotten in those same four starts. And his K/9 isn't pretty either. Last 5 starts? 2.7. That's worse than Jimmy Gobble. Did I mention that Bartolo Colon's ERA is still over 6? Should they get him, could Randy pitch every day? It's worth asking.
. . .If the Price is Right
Let's play Showcase Showdown here. Pretend my name's Bob Barker.
Showcase #1: you have a pitcher with a K/9 of 4.26 for the year, ERA of 4.50, BAA of .279, and a K/BB of 1.29.
Showcase #2: You have a pitcher with a K/9 of 7.09 for the year, ERA of 4.09, BAA of .257 and a K/BB of 2.08.
Who's in your starting rotation, considering they can both start? If you picked #1, quit reading now and take up fantasy fly-fishing or needlepoint. Ramon Ortiz is #2 and while he's not the answer to all the Angel's rotation problems, he could certainly help instead of coming in with his mop after Sele and Co. get done slopping up the place.
Okay, let's play again. This time with relievers.
Showcase #1: A reliever with a 13.78 K/9, which leads the AL, a BAA of .178, a WHIP under 1, and a K/BB of 4.4.
Showcase #2: Features a reliever with a 5.47 K/9, a BAA of .263 (the highest in that reliever's career, by the way), a WHIP of 1.62, and a K/BB of 1.07. Oh, yeah--and Showcase #1 has a more than two run advantage in ERA over Showcase #2.
Now--who's your closer? Did you select Showcase #2? Again, get the needlepoint, then. These aren't hard decisions. Steve Bisheff commented today in the OC Register that Percival's place as greatest Angel reliever of all-time is safe for now and what he's doing this year isn't adding to it. K-Rod needs the 9th. You might argue that Percival has only blown 4 saves. I would counter with: Have you looked at the Showcases?
Offensive Experiment a Bust?
Back on July 6, Scioscy switched Vlad and Anderson in the lineup to try and find some "continuity" and possibly give the Angels some better options with men in scoring position. After 13 games, the stats of the two Angel sluggers in their new positions look like this--Anderson: .235, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 13 K. Guerrero: .269, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB, 10 K. Yes, they're certainly both driving in the runs, but is that enough? They're also both striking out more and hitting for less average. Vlad has run more with Guillen/DaVanon hitting behind him instead of Anderson. I suppose it's all a really small sample size, but the fact is it might behoove Scioscy to return to the original order where both were certainly flourishing--at least average-wise--much more than they are now.
Guillen OK, Raul Not
Jose has sat the last three games with lower back pain and one other "unspecified" non-injury related problem, but Scioscy says he expects him to be ready to go tonight and a DL stint will not be necessary. If you've been sitting Guillen, it's probably safe to put him back in the lineup for now. He'll most likely hit well immediately. Raul Mondesi, on the other hand, will not be hitting (at least in the majors) anytime soon. He reaggravated his quad during his minor league rehab and will take some more time off. Scioscy said on the team's website that any timetable for his return would have to be completely refigured. For you silly 11% in mixed leagues and 73% in AL leagues who just won't let the dream die, he's going to be sitting on your IR for a while.
Top and Bottom
For the next 2 weeks, the Angels will be playing divisional foes from both ends of the division. That starts tonight in Texas with Chuck Norris' team. Three more big games against Texas and 7 against Seattle the Angels must take advantage of follow this short two-game set. I'm still a little leery of this Ranger/Angel matchup. The pitching matchups set up fairly well for the Halos, but tomorrow night's game will be very interesting. Colon vs. Ricardo Rodriguez. Both talented, both huge question marks. So far, Texas has won 5 of 7. Flyball pitchers (like Colon) typically don't fare well in Arlington. We'll see. Tonight, Drese is due for a thumping (2.5 K/9 last 5 starts). Escobar typically keeps it in the park too. Could be a chance to get 2. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Monday, July 19, 2004
Spanning the Halo 101
Welcome to Spanning the Halo. The "101" doesn't mean that this is a class, it's simply an "episode" number. This is the 1st edition of the first season. Next will be 102 and so on. What STH is is an exclusive look inside the numbers and such for your fantasy Halos. It can be a tool to take an different look at the stats to show you just what's goin on as well as keep you in the loop on all the latest Halo news. In other words, you don't have to have a fantasy team for this to be beneficial to you. This inaugural episode will take a look at news, stats, and trends, and we're gonna have some fun doing it. Because really, what baseball fan doesn't love to talk baseball?
Let's see what's on the menu:
Raul Mondesi: According to the team website, his minor league rehab at Single A Rancho Cucamonga is going very well. I'm not sure how 1-8 with 2 K and 1 BB is good, but those are his stats so far. He took the weekend off. But Mondesi's been saying he's been ready for quite some time. What his hurry is I'm not so sure, because here's a map of the Angel outfield:
Let's see what's on the menu:
Raul Mondesi: According to the team website, his minor league rehab at Single A Rancho Cucamonga is going very well. I'm not sure how 1-8 with 2 K and 1 BB is good, but those are his stats so far. He took the weekend off. But Mondesi's been saying he's been ready for quite some time. What his hurry is I'm not so sure, because here's a map of the Angel outfield:
LF: Guillen
CF: Anderson
RF: Guerrero
DH: Salmon/DaVanon
4th OF: Whoever isn't DHing
5th OF: Mondesi
What's he wanna do? Hurry up to come back and sit? Looks like he could use the work. Here's a guy who'll only rehab at Rancho Cucamonga because he thinks he's too much of a name to get on a plane and go to Arkansas or Salt Lake. His one hit came in a game that saw the Rancho Quakes rack up 19 hits and only Mondesi could only manage one. Now, I realize that he's been on the shelf for a while, but he's been makin' noise about coming back sooner than expected for a couple of weeks now, but the Angels wouldn't acknowledge that he was close. Now that they finally are, really, what's the big deal? The Mondesi signing is looking worse and worse all the time, and unless another outfielder bites the dust for an extended period of time, it will be a bad one.
Remember this--for his career, Mondesi is a .289 hitter in the NL. His AL career average is much, much worse though at .251. Now, granted, more of those AL ABs have come in the time some might call "past his prime", but they're also the most recent stats, which means they're also probably the best read of his ability now.
Look, I understand what Mondesi is trying to do. I'd do it too. He has to know that he's got no spot on this Angel team next year and being only 33 he wants to make enough noise that he can catch on somewhere else in '05. I'll tell you what, though, I think he's going to have to rely on his name recognition, because this ain't Disney, and there are just too many Angels in the Outfield.
Jarrod Washburn: If you've frequented ITH to some degree or if you've happened to catch two or three of his starts, you know that Jarrod Washburn has been incredibly fortunate due to his gaudy run support and a heapin'-hoppin'-helpin' of good luck to boot. Am I totally correct or is something else taking place here? Let's go to the videotape!
That stats don't lie. His 8.6 runs of support per 9 innings leads the majors, the Angels have scored double digits for him 7 times in his 18 starts, and twice he's given up 6 ER or more and still not taken the loss (on 4/7 he even got the win). Wash has been eating his Frosted Lucky Charms, no doubt about it.
What brings reason for scrutiny into his many strokes of luck this season though is his last month of performance. Let's look at those stats compared to his yearly totals:
Season: 10-4, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 61 K, 27 BB
Last 6 starts: 3-1, 1.73 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 18 K, 7 BB
Is this a fluke too? Let me show why, to some degree, I think it is.
Six of his 7 ER in this stint were surrendered in one bad game versus Oakland. Otherwise, he's got 31 IP with 1 single, solitary solo HR as a mark against him. That was Craig Wilson of the Pirates, who's an excellent hitter, so we'll allow him that one. But that's where the good news ends.
During the offseason I became acquanited with two statistics that, to that point, I wouldn't have known if they'd walked up and smacked me in the face. They are hit rate (H%) and strand rate (S%). These were introduced to me by an excellent baseball analysis site, Baseball HQ, which if you haven't visited, you're really missing out. Yeah, I know Baseball Prospectus and their PECOTA system has a lotta the pub, but this is much simpler and for my money, just as effective. I see the merits of PECOTA, but when I can break down the numbers using the formulas myself, I'm a whole lot more apt to believe the data.
Check this out: hit rate (H%) is basically the number of balls hit in play for hits that don't leave the yard. To make a long story short, the mean for the majors is around 30%. If a pitcher's hit rate varies from that mean number by more than, say, 3%, then he's either benefitting from good luck (27% of less) or just can't catch a break (33% or more). The data backs it up that eventually it all comes back to the mean. Well, Jarrod's hit rate during his last 6 starts is 16%! That's right. That's uncanny good fortune.
Next is strand rate (S%). That's basically all runners allowed on base who don't score (homers are excluded as well because there's nothing a pitcher can do to strand a hitter who hits a homer). Typically, starters hover around 72% as a mean value. What's Jarrod's S% in his last 6 starts? 92%. That will not hold up over the long term. Now, obviously, I understand that you can't have a low ERA without stranding runners, so of course his strand is going to be high, plus remember 5 of the runs he allowed were HRs, leaving no runners to strand. Nonetheless, the 16% hit rate shows that Jarrod isn't just mowing down these hitters.
Speaking of mowing down people, something that's a lot more obvious to the casual observer (who probably hasn't ever heard of H% or S%) is this--a 4.5 K/9. That's really bad. The only thing saving him in this department is his 1.7 BB/9. The control is great, but unless he can fan more batters, the 4.5 K/9 is way too low to hang your hat on. The AL average is 6.2 K/9, if that gives you any idea how far from the mediocre he is, and while 1.7 K/9 may not sound like much, note this--only 45 pitchers in the AL currently qualify for the ERA title (1 IP per game played). Of those 45, Jarrod ranks 32nd in K/9. Only 17 of those 45 oft-used pitchers manage to reside above the 6.2 average mark.
In other words, it's been lucky. Real lucky for Jarrod. I'd expect a spike in his ERA soon and considering it's already 4.32, that might not be very palatable.
Darin Erstad: Erstad spent a month on the DL, but since coming back, he's causing fantasy owners to at least give him a look posting a .355 average, with 3 HR, and 12 RBI, 16 R, and 6 SB in a month back on the field. I've warned people away from DE all year, saying in the preseason that he may just turn out to the least productive 1B in the majors.
Is he? The numbers say no. So--am I finally going to come around? Also. . .no.
My admonition against rostering him isn't as strong as it used to be, but I still think it would be easy to be deceived about what you're getting. Those numbers above sure sound nice, but all but the stolen bases are misleading. Batters have a hit rate too. We talked about that above with pitchers. Now, while most batters tend to hover around 30% for their own hit rate, hitters are different in that they tend to have an individual hit rate which is usually an average of their hit rates from the previous three years. Erstad's average hit rate from 2001-2003 is, coincidentally, 30%.
As I said, Erstad's hit .355 since returning from the DL. It's important to note that that average is a result of a very favorable 41% hit rate. If Erstad were getting hits at a "normal" rate for him, he'd be hitting .288 over the last month. That's about what you can expect. He's been hitting out of the 6 spot lately as well, which could bode well for his RBI total, but his runs will take a dip. The speed should hold, as I said, but the 3 HR honestly is a fluke. Now, I hear what you're saying. "A measly three home runs is a fluke?" Yeah, that's right. I won't drop more new stats on you in this episode, but suffice it to say that the power (what little there is) is a blip that won't hold. A groudball/flyball ratio of 1.73 should tell you that without any other statistical analysis.
Long story short, if you realize what you're getting--decent average, speed potential, occasional RBI prizes, with reduced run scoring and no power--you can pick up DE with no illusions should you need help filling a spot in your OF. Please, whatever you do, don't pick him up for a 1B or corner infield spot. You can do much better, even in AL leagues.
Wednesday, July 14, 2004
Here's Your Local Forecast
I spent the weekend traveling in the van of a scuba diving center that played only Weather Channel-type music, so forgive me for my silly weather headlines (As an aside, scuba diving is very cool). The Angels, in the only day of the year between Opening Day and the end of September that has no MLB event scheduled, can sit back and look at the remainder of their season. 75 games left, 32 in division. 14 against Seattle, 12 vs. Texas, 6 vs. Oakland. Records? 5-1 vs. SEA, 2-5 vs. TEX, 6-7 vs. OAK. 12 of those games are coming up before August. I still don't like the Angels/Rangers matchup. But first, Boston and Cleveland. Bad pitching (i.e. recent starts by Colon, Escobar, Sele), won't work against those two. Only 2.5 back, but the rest of July doesn't provide any breathers.
Barometer Reads 1 Big Unit Shy of Title
Whether or not adding Randy Johnson would actually make the Angels the AL favorite (I would say no), it doesn't appear as if any baseballologist will ever get to test that theory. Arte Moreno basically ruled out that the Angels would provide anything close in value to attain The Unit. The Orange County Register and LA Times both report that Moreno won't force GM Stoneman to make a trade and the latter of the papers says the D-Backs wanted 2 of 3 between Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis, and Dallas McPherson. Moreno doesn't want to sacrifice building a championship team through the farm system to "rent" Johnson for a year and a half, meaning they wouldn't look to resign him. With Anaheim out, it looks more and more like Randy could just wear pinstripes in August. We'll see.
Long Term Outlook is Sunny
Speaking of those guys everyone seems to want when talking Angel trades, let's check in. A big deal was made about McPherson's earlier tear in AA that eventually got him promoted to AAA. Now, in his first 16 games at Salt Lake, he's hitting .355 with 8 HR and 20 RBI. I'd say that'll work--alhtough he recently went 0-6 with 6 K. That's dropped his average about 40 points. He also has 6 errors in that short span as well. That's awful. Casey Kotchman, who saw time in Anaheim earlier this year, is hitting .314 with 15 RBI in 18 games. Mathis (AA) has 11 HR and 41 RBI, but is only hitting .262. With ages of 24, 21, and 21, it's no wonder the Angels don't wanna deal. With holes to fill at 3B and 1B (Erstad is a hole, okay?) and Bengie playing only half the time, it all looks good.
Cold Front of Ortiz Moving Out?
I sure hope not. If I knew in March I would've typed that, I would've laughed out loud. But Ortiz against Sele is an easy choice for me. Ortiz still wants to start or else, but unless he's in the deal for Johnson, I don’t see what the Angels could get that would make them any better. The Mets wanted him, and so do the White Sox and Orioles. I say wanted because the talk has lessened over the last two weeks and I think Ortiz is finally getting the picture that he's not gonna get a trade just because he wants one. He's not Nomar, and he's certainly not Shaq. Anyway, the likelihood of him leaving seems small. That said, we can only hope that he'll be back in the rotation soon, because now that he has something to prove, he may just pitch very well with a chip on his shoulder.
Severe Mondesi Watch Has Been Cancelled
Whew. That's a relief. I mean, all of two people were keeping an eye on that one and one of them's Raul. The other is probably that guy that sued him for all his money. The rest of us could care less that the investigation into his move to Anaheim revealed nothing wrong with the situation. Now that means he can get back to, well, just being injured. Signing Mondesi was a panic move that basically cost the Angels 1.1 million and netted them a guy who has the same first name as the guy who played Gomez Addams in the The Addams Family movie. They could've signed Raul Rekow, who plays the congas for Santana, and gotten the same production. Mondesi should've sang like the little piggy and just stayed wee-wee-wee all the way home in the Dominican Republic.
It's a Bird! It's a Tornado! No! It's a Fantasy Halo!
John Lackey gets the Halo for Week 14. Check this out: 2-0, 2.84 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10 K. That's pretty solid on a team with a starter ERA of 4.92 that gives up 1.3 HR per 9 innings. Other than Washburn, he's the only Halo starter with an ERA under 4 over the last month. It's his first fantasy halo of the year. How does he stack up halowise with the rest of the team? The totals are at Inside the Halo (insidethehalo.blogspot.com). As far as June goes, Vlad gets the Golden Halo for the month with this line: .336, 7 HR, 30 RBI (!), 21 R, and 5 SB. Is it any wonder he's right in the running for the Triple Crown? 3rd in AVG (.345), 6th in HR (6 back of Manny's 26), 2nd in RBI (one back of Ortiz's 78).
QTR: The Climate Report
The Quarterly Ticker Report is up at Inside the Halo in case you haven't checked it out yet (and if you haven't, what in the world have you been doing?). It's more of a climate report, looking at broader trends of the direction your fantasy Halo players have been going and what you can expect in the future. Hope you find it helpful. Second half starts tomorrow and I'll be spanning the nation of games with my newly installed toy. Thank you, God, for satellite television. Four against the BoSox next. Being my least favorite team in all of baseball, I'd love to see nothing less than a Halo sweep. Lowe seems like a good Sock to start whitewashing. Happy 2nd half to all, especially us Halo fans. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Barometer Reads 1 Big Unit Shy of Title
Whether or not adding Randy Johnson would actually make the Angels the AL favorite (I would say no), it doesn't appear as if any baseballologist will ever get to test that theory. Arte Moreno basically ruled out that the Angels would provide anything close in value to attain The Unit. The Orange County Register and LA Times both report that Moreno won't force GM Stoneman to make a trade and the latter of the papers says the D-Backs wanted 2 of 3 between Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis, and Dallas McPherson. Moreno doesn't want to sacrifice building a championship team through the farm system to "rent" Johnson for a year and a half, meaning they wouldn't look to resign him. With Anaheim out, it looks more and more like Randy could just wear pinstripes in August. We'll see.
Long Term Outlook is Sunny
Speaking of those guys everyone seems to want when talking Angel trades, let's check in. A big deal was made about McPherson's earlier tear in AA that eventually got him promoted to AAA. Now, in his first 16 games at Salt Lake, he's hitting .355 with 8 HR and 20 RBI. I'd say that'll work--alhtough he recently went 0-6 with 6 K. That's dropped his average about 40 points. He also has 6 errors in that short span as well. That's awful. Casey Kotchman, who saw time in Anaheim earlier this year, is hitting .314 with 15 RBI in 18 games. Mathis (AA) has 11 HR and 41 RBI, but is only hitting .262. With ages of 24, 21, and 21, it's no wonder the Angels don't wanna deal. With holes to fill at 3B and 1B (Erstad is a hole, okay?) and Bengie playing only half the time, it all looks good.
Cold Front of Ortiz Moving Out?
I sure hope not. If I knew in March I would've typed that, I would've laughed out loud. But Ortiz against Sele is an easy choice for me. Ortiz still wants to start or else, but unless he's in the deal for Johnson, I don’t see what the Angels could get that would make them any better. The Mets wanted him, and so do the White Sox and Orioles. I say wanted because the talk has lessened over the last two weeks and I think Ortiz is finally getting the picture that he's not gonna get a trade just because he wants one. He's not Nomar, and he's certainly not Shaq. Anyway, the likelihood of him leaving seems small. That said, we can only hope that he'll be back in the rotation soon, because now that he has something to prove, he may just pitch very well with a chip on his shoulder.
Severe Mondesi Watch Has Been Cancelled
Whew. That's a relief. I mean, all of two people were keeping an eye on that one and one of them's Raul. The other is probably that guy that sued him for all his money. The rest of us could care less that the investigation into his move to Anaheim revealed nothing wrong with the situation. Now that means he can get back to, well, just being injured. Signing Mondesi was a panic move that basically cost the Angels 1.1 million and netted them a guy who has the same first name as the guy who played Gomez Addams in the The Addams Family movie. They could've signed Raul Rekow, who plays the congas for Santana, and gotten the same production. Mondesi should've sang like the little piggy and just stayed wee-wee-wee all the way home in the Dominican Republic.
It's a Bird! It's a Tornado! No! It's a Fantasy Halo!
John Lackey gets the Halo for Week 14. Check this out: 2-0, 2.84 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10 K. That's pretty solid on a team with a starter ERA of 4.92 that gives up 1.3 HR per 9 innings. Other than Washburn, he's the only Halo starter with an ERA under 4 over the last month. It's his first fantasy halo of the year. How does he stack up halowise with the rest of the team? The totals are at Inside the Halo (insidethehalo.blogspot.com). As far as June goes, Vlad gets the Golden Halo for the month with this line: .336, 7 HR, 30 RBI (!), 21 R, and 5 SB. Is it any wonder he's right in the running for the Triple Crown? 3rd in AVG (.345), 6th in HR (6 back of Manny's 26), 2nd in RBI (one back of Ortiz's 78).
QTR: The Climate Report
The Quarterly Ticker Report is up at Inside the Halo in case you haven't checked it out yet (and if you haven't, what in the world have you been doing?). It's more of a climate report, looking at broader trends of the direction your fantasy Halo players have been going and what you can expect in the future. Hope you find it helpful. Second half starts tomorrow and I'll be spanning the nation of games with my newly installed toy. Thank you, God, for satellite television. Four against the BoSox next. Being my least favorite team in all of baseball, I'd love to see nothing less than a Halo sweep. Lowe seems like a good Sock to start whitewashing. Happy 2nd half to all, especially us Halo fans. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Monday, July 12, 2004
Quarterly Ticker Report
We're halfway done. Teams can finally begin to justify the panic they feel in their Divisional Dungeons and set themselves up to make a run, give up, or for us fortunate enough to be in keepers, reload for next year. It may be almost mid-July, but there's still time to make a run with the right moves. There's not much time to keep saying "there's still time", but for now, you can.
What Inside the Halo is going to do for you is take a brief look at those players that are being rostered by the fantasy GMs out there and devise a "market strategy" in a few words to fill you in on their value and how they can affect your team in the future. We've based those worthy of including on ESPN's ownership ratings for mixed and non-mixed leagues, and if a player is owned 50% or greater of either a mixed or AL league, then he'll be included in our report (All ownership percentages are as of 7/8). It's your ITH QTR (we like acronyms). Let's roll it.
The 100/100 Club: Fully owned in both mixed and AL leagues.
...Garret Anderson: Business as usual. He doesn't walk much, but consistently smashes the ball. He doesn't smash it enough to keep his average from falling a little bit. He's had some fortunate hits and the tide will probably turn the other way. With a .231 average in July, the tide may already be turning just a tad...Chone Figgins: He's striking out more, his contact percentage has dropped 7% in the last month...The speed is for real. More triples than doubles (12 to 11) and will probably steal around 40...Forget the HR/RBI, the rest is gold...Vladimir Guerrero: The man is an absolute freak. He doesn't walk much either, but 70+ RBI, 70+ runs, .340+ AVG, 20 HR--are you kidding me? Don't worry about his health anymore. He's running and looking great. The bat is a wand in his hand--or a mallet--or a WMD, whatever...Jose Guillen: Here's another one that doesn't walk much (224 BB as a team is 13th in the AL...has a lot to do with .336 team OBP, which is 10th in AL). His average should stay fairly high though because he almost always makes hard contact. That helps...I wasn't convinced that he was for real after last year. It seems now that he probably is...Troy Percival: Early problems look like they were definitely injury-related. It's a small sample, but he's looked better since his return...Don't get too excited though. His K/BB ratio is still just 1.0. If that doesn't say RED FLAG: DANGER for a closer, I don't know what does. He's seen his best years, but could still help you out this season...Francisco Rodriguez: This is the guy that should be the closer, but whatta ya gonna do? 13.8 K/9...4.31 K/BB...shivers. If he were a closer, he'd be mentioned in the same breath as Gagne, Smoltz, Wagner, and Rivera. Acquire accordingly...
The Rest of the Angels' Portfolio: Ownership listed as percentages (Mixed/AL)
...Bartolo Colon (85/97): It is time to prepare to abandon ship. I'm not sayin' it's over for BC this year, but it's close...Since May, he's allowed at least 1 HR in every start but one. You would think it's has to stop, but it sure doesn't look that way...His K/BB is down in the last month or so and that was thus far his only silver lining...So far ERA and BAA has risen every month (it's getting close to astronomically ridiculous). Pack your lifeboat...Jeff DaVanon (4/89): In a platoon for now, which is never good for fantasy production... He's hitting .133 in July, so his luck appears to be running out. To use a phrase that the legendary Mr. Miyagi might, I'll say that Jeff DaVanon's best "karate" or "fantasy production" is not still inside him. It's been let out. AL owners should deal and soon...Brendan Donnelly (17/97): Can be had very easily right now in mixed leagues. I'd acquire...He's okay healthwise. You shouldn't expect '03-type stats, but he'll still be very helpful if he gets the innings...It's a small sample, but he's hit the ground running with a 10.7 K/9...David Eckstein (4/100): Frustratingly streaky...hit .341 in June and .241 thus far in July. Overall, he's closer to the .241, but he's still definitely worth owning for the hot stretches...Darin Erstad (24/100): I continue to maintain that he's bad and much worse than his numbers indicate...He continues to show otherwise with .291 and 9 SB right now...Know this. The power that somehow resulted in 25 HR in '00 is gone. Tumbleweed-blowing-in-the-dust gone. Erstad and Chone Figgins in a HR Derby would be both interesing and tragic to see...Kelvim Escobar (58/100): Here's one of those guys who isn't great (partly because he's getting no run support), but he certainly won't hurt you. He's off to a rocky July, but it's most likely a blip. However, watch the walks. He's walked 3 or more in 4 of his last 5 starts and the time he didn't he hit 2 batters, so it's basically the same--a free base runner. He's also shown a propensity to get wild in the past. Watch carefully...Not quite as overpowering as he was earlier in the year...Adam Kennedy (30/99): Looks like he may be heating up. It's probably a flash in the pan though...Hopefully the Angels will include him in a deal for Cabrera if the Cubs don't get him...He's got a little pop, speed, but his OBP kills a lot of his SB potential though (.316)...John Lackey (1/95): ALERT: Take a look at Lackey. Ks up, BBs down, he's been the best Halo starter over the last month plus. Since the beginning of June (7 starts), he's given up more than 2 ER twice (one time it was 3 ER). He's only walked more than 2 twice in 16 starts...Done all this fairly quietly. Anyone could use this guy right now. Very easy pick up in mixed, probably fairly easy trade material in AL. Buy...Bengie Molina (3/88): Almost always makes contact, the average is for real...Doesn't play enough to hit the 20 HR potential he's capable of. Sketchy health, but he can hit...Raul Mondesi (13/61): I laughed when I saw that per my guidelines, I would be required to include Mondesi in this report. What are 13% of mixed owners and 61% of AL owners thinking? He's NOT GONNA PLAY! Even if/when he comes back, he's probably the sixth guy in the mix for OF/DH. He's hits .236 (.722 OPS) career in his first AB of the game (think pinch hitter)...Ramon Ortiz (1/61): Value completely depends on whether he gets another chance to start. Can be serviceable without a HR problem...His biggest problem could be motivation. If he's got something to prove (like this year), it seems the chip on his shoulder makes him better...Tim Salmon (1/93): Health and PT an issue...Platoon is not going to work with him. He probably should get majority of the ABs between he and DaVanon. Will he?...That .228 AVG will rise with more ABs...Aaron Sele (1/95): The Angels don't have a bigger 'sell' candidate, not even Colon...He's a little piggy hangin' by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin...Has struck out 10 batters--in his last five starts...3.2 K/9, .272 BAA...Get rid of him now...Scot Shields (57/100): Rough patch of late, but it's mostly bad luck...12.0 K/9 over last month...Don't underestimate him. He gets lost easily in a bullpen with so many good pitchers with name recognition...Jarrod Washburn (49/100): His great control is his biggest asset, but his K/9 is getting lower...He keeps the ball in the park. He's given up half of his 14 bombs in only two bad starts...The fortune he's had could very easily change with all the run support and his 4.62 ERA. Could be a good trade blocker...
That's a look at your QTR. Any further analysis needed should be addressed to insidethehalo@insightbb.com.
What Inside the Halo is going to do for you is take a brief look at those players that are being rostered by the fantasy GMs out there and devise a "market strategy" in a few words to fill you in on their value and how they can affect your team in the future. We've based those worthy of including on ESPN's ownership ratings for mixed and non-mixed leagues, and if a player is owned 50% or greater of either a mixed or AL league, then he'll be included in our report (All ownership percentages are as of 7/8). It's your ITH QTR (we like acronyms). Let's roll it.
The 100/100 Club: Fully owned in both mixed and AL leagues.
...Garret Anderson: Business as usual. He doesn't walk much, but consistently smashes the ball. He doesn't smash it enough to keep his average from falling a little bit. He's had some fortunate hits and the tide will probably turn the other way. With a .231 average in July, the tide may already be turning just a tad...Chone Figgins: He's striking out more, his contact percentage has dropped 7% in the last month...The speed is for real. More triples than doubles (12 to 11) and will probably steal around 40...Forget the HR/RBI, the rest is gold...Vladimir Guerrero: The man is an absolute freak. He doesn't walk much either, but 70+ RBI, 70+ runs, .340+ AVG, 20 HR--are you kidding me? Don't worry about his health anymore. He's running and looking great. The bat is a wand in his hand--or a mallet--or a WMD, whatever...Jose Guillen: Here's another one that doesn't walk much (224 BB as a team is 13th in the AL...has a lot to do with .336 team OBP, which is 10th in AL). His average should stay fairly high though because he almost always makes hard contact. That helps...I wasn't convinced that he was for real after last year. It seems now that he probably is...Troy Percival: Early problems look like they were definitely injury-related. It's a small sample, but he's looked better since his return...Don't get too excited though. His K/BB ratio is still just 1.0. If that doesn't say RED FLAG: DANGER for a closer, I don't know what does. He's seen his best years, but could still help you out this season...Francisco Rodriguez: This is the guy that should be the closer, but whatta ya gonna do? 13.8 K/9...4.31 K/BB...shivers. If he were a closer, he'd be mentioned in the same breath as Gagne, Smoltz, Wagner, and Rivera. Acquire accordingly...
The Rest of the Angels' Portfolio: Ownership listed as percentages (Mixed/AL)
...Bartolo Colon (85/97): It is time to prepare to abandon ship. I'm not sayin' it's over for BC this year, but it's close...Since May, he's allowed at least 1 HR in every start but one. You would think it's has to stop, but it sure doesn't look that way...His K/BB is down in the last month or so and that was thus far his only silver lining...So far ERA and BAA has risen every month (it's getting close to astronomically ridiculous). Pack your lifeboat...Jeff DaVanon (4/89): In a platoon for now, which is never good for fantasy production... He's hitting .133 in July, so his luck appears to be running out. To use a phrase that the legendary Mr. Miyagi might, I'll say that Jeff DaVanon's best "karate" or "fantasy production" is not still inside him. It's been let out. AL owners should deal and soon...Brendan Donnelly (17/97): Can be had very easily right now in mixed leagues. I'd acquire...He's okay healthwise. You shouldn't expect '03-type stats, but he'll still be very helpful if he gets the innings...It's a small sample, but he's hit the ground running with a 10.7 K/9...David Eckstein (4/100): Frustratingly streaky...hit .341 in June and .241 thus far in July. Overall, he's closer to the .241, but he's still definitely worth owning for the hot stretches...Darin Erstad (24/100): I continue to maintain that he's bad and much worse than his numbers indicate...He continues to show otherwise with .291 and 9 SB right now...Know this. The power that somehow resulted in 25 HR in '00 is gone. Tumbleweed-blowing-in-the-dust gone. Erstad and Chone Figgins in a HR Derby would be both interesing and tragic to see...Kelvim Escobar (58/100): Here's one of those guys who isn't great (partly because he's getting no run support), but he certainly won't hurt you. He's off to a rocky July, but it's most likely a blip. However, watch the walks. He's walked 3 or more in 4 of his last 5 starts and the time he didn't he hit 2 batters, so it's basically the same--a free base runner. He's also shown a propensity to get wild in the past. Watch carefully...Not quite as overpowering as he was earlier in the year...Adam Kennedy (30/99): Looks like he may be heating up. It's probably a flash in the pan though...Hopefully the Angels will include him in a deal for Cabrera if the Cubs don't get him...He's got a little pop, speed, but his OBP kills a lot of his SB potential though (.316)...John Lackey (1/95): ALERT: Take a look at Lackey. Ks up, BBs down, he's been the best Halo starter over the last month plus. Since the beginning of June (7 starts), he's given up more than 2 ER twice (one time it was 3 ER). He's only walked more than 2 twice in 16 starts...Done all this fairly quietly. Anyone could use this guy right now. Very easy pick up in mixed, probably fairly easy trade material in AL. Buy...Bengie Molina (3/88): Almost always makes contact, the average is for real...Doesn't play enough to hit the 20 HR potential he's capable of. Sketchy health, but he can hit...Raul Mondesi (13/61): I laughed when I saw that per my guidelines, I would be required to include Mondesi in this report. What are 13% of mixed owners and 61% of AL owners thinking? He's NOT GONNA PLAY! Even if/when he comes back, he's probably the sixth guy in the mix for OF/DH. He's hits .236 (.722 OPS) career in his first AB of the game (think pinch hitter)...Ramon Ortiz (1/61): Value completely depends on whether he gets another chance to start. Can be serviceable without a HR problem...His biggest problem could be motivation. If he's got something to prove (like this year), it seems the chip on his shoulder makes him better...Tim Salmon (1/93): Health and PT an issue...Platoon is not going to work with him. He probably should get majority of the ABs between he and DaVanon. Will he?...That .228 AVG will rise with more ABs...Aaron Sele (1/95): The Angels don't have a bigger 'sell' candidate, not even Colon...He's a little piggy hangin' by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin...Has struck out 10 batters--in his last five starts...3.2 K/9, .272 BAA...Get rid of him now...Scot Shields (57/100): Rough patch of late, but it's mostly bad luck...12.0 K/9 over last month...Don't underestimate him. He gets lost easily in a bullpen with so many good pitchers with name recognition...Jarrod Washburn (49/100): His great control is his biggest asset, but his K/9 is getting lower...He keeps the ball in the park. He's given up half of his 14 bombs in only two bad starts...The fortune he's had could very easily change with all the run support and his 4.62 ERA. Could be a good trade blocker...
That's a look at your QTR. Any further analysis needed should be addressed to insidethehalo@insightbb.com.
Wednesday, July 07, 2004
Everyone's Healthy. . .So. . .
A big deal was made about the Angels defying expectations by remaining in first place in the AL West despite injuries to Garret Anderson, Troy Glaus, Tim Salmon, Darin Erstad, and Brendan Donnelly. Right around a month ago, the Angels saw Anderson, Salmon, and Erstad all return to the lineup within a week. Strangely, while the Angels were on a roll then, there is no question that they've dropped off in performance--and win totals--since. Since June 12, the Angels area a very unimpressive 8-14. Patterns like that won't win what is considered possibly the best division in baseball. What's going on? Well, Mike Scioscia pointed out recently in the Chicago Sun Times that over the last 30 days, the Halos are hitting .230 with runners is scoring position.
That no doubt has something to do with it. How about being 10th in team ERA in June? How about the much-discussed plight of Fats Colon? Three of the five starters have ERAs in the last 30 days over 4.50, and one of the two who doesn't (Escobar) has walked 18 in his last 39 innings. Ramon Ortiz is the hottest guy that's started and he's in the bullpen. It's certainly not for lack of speed--the Halos had an AL-high 31 SBs in June. However, their BB/K ratio was bad at 0.43--only Texas was worse at 0.36. They also had the highest AB/HR ratio in the AL, only going deep 19 times in the month. There are a lot of intangibles here, but the bottom line is that the Angels aren't winning and the other teams are.
My Name is. . .Ramon
Ortiz still wants out. It's rumored that the Mets want him pretty bad, but basically all they're offering is some Animal Crackers and a Mento. There have also reportedly been in talks with the Orioles and White Sox, who could both really use some pitching. The Oriole deal would be ridiculous, considering the chip they're offering is most likely Buddy Groom, according to ESPN. Jose Valentin was reportedly the offer from the Pale Hose, but that really doesn't help the Halos either. Ramon's only got an option for 2005, so it wouldn't be ridiculous for them to move him. Will they? Not without something significant. I'd love to see Sele go, but the Angels would have to pick up a large part of his salary. He's also got the better numbers, so some team might bite if he were offered.
My Name is. . .Fats
Here's something you don't see every day. Colon's ownership in mixed leagues: 73%. In AL leagues: 37%. Apparently, even without another entire league of players, the AL owners have decided that the Kazuhito Tadanos and Erik Bedards of the fantasy world are better options. I wouldn't completely disagree. BC's last start was another terrible one in which he didn't strike out a single batter. He lasted 4 innings, 8 hits, and 7 earned runs. That's two starts in a row where he walked more than he struck out. The two starts before that were fine, both at least 7 innings and no more than 3 ER. However, those were the only two starts since at least May 14 that have lowered his ERA by the end of the game. This season isn’t over for Bart yet, but it getting close to time to waive bye-bye.
Our names are. . .Tim and Jeff
Both of these guys have been basically rendered useless or at least dangerous to own in fantasy. They're still producing, but neither are getting the full time PT they want and Scioscy is in a no-win situation either way. Some would say it's a good problem to have. Neither have been especially productive, although Salmon has had 7 RBIs in the past week, he's only had 4 hits, which puts his average around .250. The Angels have faced a lot of lefties lately, so the splits have been pretty even, but of course that won't remain true over the long term if this platoon situation holds. Salmon did get one start against a right-hander on Sunday and went 2-4. DaVanon's got speed and some pop, but Salmon's still a good hitter. Right now it's a risk to own either, but you take what you can get.
Los Angeles Angels?
Word out of California today is that owner Arte Moreno is looking to expand the sponsorship opportunities for the Halos and broaden the fan base by attaching the name of the second-largest market to the team's name. The current lease at Angels Stadium requires that the team be called the Anaheim Angels, so it's unsure how far this thing can go. It's certainly possible this could help in broadening the scope of the team's "national importance" in the long run, although some would say that a world championship just two years ago will do okay as well. Folks in Anaheim are sure to not like the possible change, but it's really unclear at this point whether or not this particular venture has wings to begin with.
Quality Over Quantity
Sorry to say, but the Halo Daily website is being discontinued for now. I just don't have the manpower (considering it's only me) to keep it updated when I have Cincinnati correspondent duties as well. I will, however, focus on making the Inside the Halo site even better, with extra columns and analysis that will only appear there (think DVD special features). Sometimes everything that needs to be said can't be covered in seven blocks anyway. Coming soon at Inside the Halo, I'm taking a look at mid-season report cards and seeing whether Angels that are being rostered by fantasy owners are making the grade. We'll see what to expect for the second half and beyond. Check that out at insidethehalo.blogspot.com. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
That no doubt has something to do with it. How about being 10th in team ERA in June? How about the much-discussed plight of Fats Colon? Three of the five starters have ERAs in the last 30 days over 4.50, and one of the two who doesn't (Escobar) has walked 18 in his last 39 innings. Ramon Ortiz is the hottest guy that's started and he's in the bullpen. It's certainly not for lack of speed--the Halos had an AL-high 31 SBs in June. However, their BB/K ratio was bad at 0.43--only Texas was worse at 0.36. They also had the highest AB/HR ratio in the AL, only going deep 19 times in the month. There are a lot of intangibles here, but the bottom line is that the Angels aren't winning and the other teams are.
My Name is. . .Ramon
Ortiz still wants out. It's rumored that the Mets want him pretty bad, but basically all they're offering is some Animal Crackers and a Mento. There have also reportedly been in talks with the Orioles and White Sox, who could both really use some pitching. The Oriole deal would be ridiculous, considering the chip they're offering is most likely Buddy Groom, according to ESPN. Jose Valentin was reportedly the offer from the Pale Hose, but that really doesn't help the Halos either. Ramon's only got an option for 2005, so it wouldn't be ridiculous for them to move him. Will they? Not without something significant. I'd love to see Sele go, but the Angels would have to pick up a large part of his salary. He's also got the better numbers, so some team might bite if he were offered.
My Name is. . .Fats
Here's something you don't see every day. Colon's ownership in mixed leagues: 73%. In AL leagues: 37%. Apparently, even without another entire league of players, the AL owners have decided that the Kazuhito Tadanos and Erik Bedards of the fantasy world are better options. I wouldn't completely disagree. BC's last start was another terrible one in which he didn't strike out a single batter. He lasted 4 innings, 8 hits, and 7 earned runs. That's two starts in a row where he walked more than he struck out. The two starts before that were fine, both at least 7 innings and no more than 3 ER. However, those were the only two starts since at least May 14 that have lowered his ERA by the end of the game. This season isn’t over for Bart yet, but it getting close to time to waive bye-bye.
Our names are. . .Tim and Jeff
Both of these guys have been basically rendered useless or at least dangerous to own in fantasy. They're still producing, but neither are getting the full time PT they want and Scioscy is in a no-win situation either way. Some would say it's a good problem to have. Neither have been especially productive, although Salmon has had 7 RBIs in the past week, he's only had 4 hits, which puts his average around .250. The Angels have faced a lot of lefties lately, so the splits have been pretty even, but of course that won't remain true over the long term if this platoon situation holds. Salmon did get one start against a right-hander on Sunday and went 2-4. DaVanon's got speed and some pop, but Salmon's still a good hitter. Right now it's a risk to own either, but you take what you can get.
Los Angeles Angels?
Word out of California today is that owner Arte Moreno is looking to expand the sponsorship opportunities for the Halos and broaden the fan base by attaching the name of the second-largest market to the team's name. The current lease at Angels Stadium requires that the team be called the Anaheim Angels, so it's unsure how far this thing can go. It's certainly possible this could help in broadening the scope of the team's "national importance" in the long run, although some would say that a world championship just two years ago will do okay as well. Folks in Anaheim are sure to not like the possible change, but it's really unclear at this point whether or not this particular venture has wings to begin with.
Quality Over Quantity
Sorry to say, but the Halo Daily website is being discontinued for now. I just don't have the manpower (considering it's only me) to keep it updated when I have Cincinnati correspondent duties as well. I will, however, focus on making the Inside the Halo site even better, with extra columns and analysis that will only appear there (think DVD special features). Sometimes everything that needs to be said can't be covered in seven blocks anyway. Coming soon at Inside the Halo, I'm taking a look at mid-season report cards and seeing whether Angels that are being rostered by fantasy owners are making the grade. We'll see what to expect for the second half and beyond. Check that out at insidethehalo.blogspot.com. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
