Monday, July 19, 2004
Spanning the Halo 101
Let's see what's on the menu:
Raul Mondesi: According to the team website, his minor league rehab at Single A Rancho Cucamonga is going very well. I'm not sure how 1-8 with 2 K and 1 BB is good, but those are his stats so far. He took the weekend off. But Mondesi's been saying he's been ready for quite some time. What his hurry is I'm not so sure, because here's a map of the Angel outfield:
LF: Guillen
CF: Anderson
RF: Guerrero
DH: Salmon/DaVanon
4th OF: Whoever isn't DHing
5th OF: Mondesi
What's he wanna do? Hurry up to come back and sit? Looks like he could use the work. Here's a guy who'll only rehab at Rancho Cucamonga because he thinks he's too much of a name to get on a plane and go to Arkansas or Salt Lake. His one hit came in a game that saw the Rancho Quakes rack up 19 hits and only Mondesi could only manage one. Now, I realize that he's been on the shelf for a while, but he's been makin' noise about coming back sooner than expected for a couple of weeks now, but the Angels wouldn't acknowledge that he was close. Now that they finally are, really, what's the big deal? The Mondesi signing is looking worse and worse all the time, and unless another outfielder bites the dust for an extended period of time, it will be a bad one.
Remember this--for his career, Mondesi is a .289 hitter in the NL. His AL career average is much, much worse though at .251. Now, granted, more of those AL ABs have come in the time some might call "past his prime", but they're also the most recent stats, which means they're also probably the best read of his ability now.
Look, I understand what Mondesi is trying to do. I'd do it too. He has to know that he's got no spot on this Angel team next year and being only 33 he wants to make enough noise that he can catch on somewhere else in '05. I'll tell you what, though, I think he's going to have to rely on his name recognition, because this ain't Disney, and there are just too many Angels in the Outfield.
Jarrod Washburn: If you've frequented ITH to some degree or if you've happened to catch two or three of his starts, you know that Jarrod Washburn has been incredibly fortunate due to his gaudy run support and a heapin'-hoppin'-helpin' of good luck to boot. Am I totally correct or is something else taking place here? Let's go to the videotape!
That stats don't lie. His 8.6 runs of support per 9 innings leads the majors, the Angels have scored double digits for him 7 times in his 18 starts, and twice he's given up 6 ER or more and still not taken the loss (on 4/7 he even got the win). Wash has been eating his Frosted Lucky Charms, no doubt about it.
What brings reason for scrutiny into his many strokes of luck this season though is his last month of performance. Let's look at those stats compared to his yearly totals:
Season: 10-4, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 61 K, 27 BB
Last 6 starts: 3-1, 1.73 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 18 K, 7 BB
Is this a fluke too? Let me show why, to some degree, I think it is.
Six of his 7 ER in this stint were surrendered in one bad game versus Oakland. Otherwise, he's got 31 IP with 1 single, solitary solo HR as a mark against him. That was Craig Wilson of the Pirates, who's an excellent hitter, so we'll allow him that one. But that's where the good news ends.
During the offseason I became acquanited with two statistics that, to that point, I wouldn't have known if they'd walked up and smacked me in the face. They are hit rate (H%) and strand rate (S%). These were introduced to me by an excellent baseball analysis site, Baseball HQ, which if you haven't visited, you're really missing out. Yeah, I know Baseball Prospectus and their PECOTA system has a lotta the pub, but this is much simpler and for my money, just as effective. I see the merits of PECOTA, but when I can break down the numbers using the formulas myself, I'm a whole lot more apt to believe the data.
Check this out: hit rate (H%) is basically the number of balls hit in play for hits that don't leave the yard. To make a long story short, the mean for the majors is around 30%. If a pitcher's hit rate varies from that mean number by more than, say, 3%, then he's either benefitting from good luck (27% of less) or just can't catch a break (33% or more). The data backs it up that eventually it all comes back to the mean. Well, Jarrod's hit rate during his last 6 starts is 16%! That's right. That's uncanny good fortune.
Next is strand rate (S%). That's basically all runners allowed on base who don't score (homers are excluded as well because there's nothing a pitcher can do to strand a hitter who hits a homer). Typically, starters hover around 72% as a mean value. What's Jarrod's S% in his last 6 starts? 92%. That will not hold up over the long term. Now, obviously, I understand that you can't have a low ERA without stranding runners, so of course his strand is going to be high, plus remember 5 of the runs he allowed were HRs, leaving no runners to strand. Nonetheless, the 16% hit rate shows that Jarrod isn't just mowing down these hitters.
Speaking of mowing down people, something that's a lot more obvious to the casual observer (who probably hasn't ever heard of H% or S%) is this--a 4.5 K/9. That's really bad. The only thing saving him in this department is his 1.7 BB/9. The control is great, but unless he can fan more batters, the 4.5 K/9 is way too low to hang your hat on. The AL average is 6.2 K/9, if that gives you any idea how far from the mediocre he is, and while 1.7 K/9 may not sound like much, note this--only 45 pitchers in the AL currently qualify for the ERA title (1 IP per game played). Of those 45, Jarrod ranks 32nd in K/9. Only 17 of those 45 oft-used pitchers manage to reside above the 6.2 average mark.
In other words, it's been lucky. Real lucky for Jarrod. I'd expect a spike in his ERA soon and considering it's already 4.32, that might not be very palatable.
Darin Erstad: Erstad spent a month on the DL, but since coming back, he's causing fantasy owners to at least give him a look posting a .355 average, with 3 HR, and 12 RBI, 16 R, and 6 SB in a month back on the field. I've warned people away from DE all year, saying in the preseason that he may just turn out to the least productive 1B in the majors.
Is he? The numbers say no. So--am I finally going to come around? Also. . .no.
My admonition against rostering him isn't as strong as it used to be, but I still think it would be easy to be deceived about what you're getting. Those numbers above sure sound nice, but all but the stolen bases are misleading. Batters have a hit rate too. We talked about that above with pitchers. Now, while most batters tend to hover around 30% for their own hit rate, hitters are different in that they tend to have an individual hit rate which is usually an average of their hit rates from the previous three years. Erstad's average hit rate from 2001-2003 is, coincidentally, 30%.
As I said, Erstad's hit .355 since returning from the DL. It's important to note that that average is a result of a very favorable 41% hit rate. If Erstad were getting hits at a "normal" rate for him, he'd be hitting .288 over the last month. That's about what you can expect. He's been hitting out of the 6 spot lately as well, which could bode well for his RBI total, but his runs will take a dip. The speed should hold, as I said, but the 3 HR honestly is a fluke. Now, I hear what you're saying. "A measly three home runs is a fluke?" Yeah, that's right. I won't drop more new stats on you in this episode, but suffice it to say that the power (what little there is) is a blip that won't hold. A groudball/flyball ratio of 1.73 should tell you that without any other statistical analysis.
Long story short, if you realize what you're getting--decent average, speed potential, occasional RBI prizes, with reduced run scoring and no power--you can pick up DE with no illusions should you need help filling a spot in your OF. Please, whatever you do, don't pick him up for a 1B or corner infield spot. You can do much better, even in AL leagues.
