Monday, July 12, 2004
Quarterly Ticker Report
We're halfway done. Teams can finally begin to justify the panic they feel in their Divisional Dungeons and set themselves up to make a run, give up, or for us fortunate enough to be in keepers, reload for next year. It may be almost mid-July, but there's still time to make a run with the right moves. There's not much time to keep saying "there's still time", but for now, you can.
What Inside the Halo is going to do for you is take a brief look at those players that are being rostered by the fantasy GMs out there and devise a "market strategy" in a few words to fill you in on their value and how they can affect your team in the future. We've based those worthy of including on ESPN's ownership ratings for mixed and non-mixed leagues, and if a player is owned 50% or greater of either a mixed or AL league, then he'll be included in our report (All ownership percentages are as of 7/8). It's your ITH QTR (we like acronyms). Let's roll it.
The 100/100 Club: Fully owned in both mixed and AL leagues.
...Garret Anderson: Business as usual. He doesn't walk much, but consistently smashes the ball. He doesn't smash it enough to keep his average from falling a little bit. He's had some fortunate hits and the tide will probably turn the other way. With a .231 average in July, the tide may already be turning just a tad...Chone Figgins: He's striking out more, his contact percentage has dropped 7% in the last month...The speed is for real. More triples than doubles (12 to 11) and will probably steal around 40...Forget the HR/RBI, the rest is gold...Vladimir Guerrero: The man is an absolute freak. He doesn't walk much either, but 70+ RBI, 70+ runs, .340+ AVG, 20 HR--are you kidding me? Don't worry about his health anymore. He's running and looking great. The bat is a wand in his hand--or a mallet--or a WMD, whatever...Jose Guillen: Here's another one that doesn't walk much (224 BB as a team is 13th in the AL...has a lot to do with .336 team OBP, which is 10th in AL). His average should stay fairly high though because he almost always makes hard contact. That helps...I wasn't convinced that he was for real after last year. It seems now that he probably is...Troy Percival: Early problems look like they were definitely injury-related. It's a small sample, but he's looked better since his return...Don't get too excited though. His K/BB ratio is still just 1.0. If that doesn't say RED FLAG: DANGER for a closer, I don't know what does. He's seen his best years, but could still help you out this season...Francisco Rodriguez: This is the guy that should be the closer, but whatta ya gonna do? 13.8 K/9...4.31 K/BB...shivers. If he were a closer, he'd be mentioned in the same breath as Gagne, Smoltz, Wagner, and Rivera. Acquire accordingly...
The Rest of the Angels' Portfolio: Ownership listed as percentages (Mixed/AL)
...Bartolo Colon (85/97): It is time to prepare to abandon ship. I'm not sayin' it's over for BC this year, but it's close...Since May, he's allowed at least 1 HR in every start but one. You would think it's has to stop, but it sure doesn't look that way...His K/BB is down in the last month or so and that was thus far his only silver lining...So far ERA and BAA has risen every month (it's getting close to astronomically ridiculous). Pack your lifeboat...Jeff DaVanon (4/89): In a platoon for now, which is never good for fantasy production... He's hitting .133 in July, so his luck appears to be running out. To use a phrase that the legendary Mr. Miyagi might, I'll say that Jeff DaVanon's best "karate" or "fantasy production" is not still inside him. It's been let out. AL owners should deal and soon...Brendan Donnelly (17/97): Can be had very easily right now in mixed leagues. I'd acquire...He's okay healthwise. You shouldn't expect '03-type stats, but he'll still be very helpful if he gets the innings...It's a small sample, but he's hit the ground running with a 10.7 K/9...David Eckstein (4/100): Frustratingly streaky...hit .341 in June and .241 thus far in July. Overall, he's closer to the .241, but he's still definitely worth owning for the hot stretches...Darin Erstad (24/100): I continue to maintain that he's bad and much worse than his numbers indicate...He continues to show otherwise with .291 and 9 SB right now...Know this. The power that somehow resulted in 25 HR in '00 is gone. Tumbleweed-blowing-in-the-dust gone. Erstad and Chone Figgins in a HR Derby would be both interesing and tragic to see...Kelvim Escobar (58/100): Here's one of those guys who isn't great (partly because he's getting no run support), but he certainly won't hurt you. He's off to a rocky July, but it's most likely a blip. However, watch the walks. He's walked 3 or more in 4 of his last 5 starts and the time he didn't he hit 2 batters, so it's basically the same--a free base runner. He's also shown a propensity to get wild in the past. Watch carefully...Not quite as overpowering as he was earlier in the year...Adam Kennedy (30/99): Looks like he may be heating up. It's probably a flash in the pan though...Hopefully the Angels will include him in a deal for Cabrera if the Cubs don't get him...He's got a little pop, speed, but his OBP kills a lot of his SB potential though (.316)...John Lackey (1/95): ALERT: Take a look at Lackey. Ks up, BBs down, he's been the best Halo starter over the last month plus. Since the beginning of June (7 starts), he's given up more than 2 ER twice (one time it was 3 ER). He's only walked more than 2 twice in 16 starts...Done all this fairly quietly. Anyone could use this guy right now. Very easy pick up in mixed, probably fairly easy trade material in AL. Buy...Bengie Molina (3/88): Almost always makes contact, the average is for real...Doesn't play enough to hit the 20 HR potential he's capable of. Sketchy health, but he can hit...Raul Mondesi (13/61): I laughed when I saw that per my guidelines, I would be required to include Mondesi in this report. What are 13% of mixed owners and 61% of AL owners thinking? He's NOT GONNA PLAY! Even if/when he comes back, he's probably the sixth guy in the mix for OF/DH. He's hits .236 (.722 OPS) career in his first AB of the game (think pinch hitter)...Ramon Ortiz (1/61): Value completely depends on whether he gets another chance to start. Can be serviceable without a HR problem...His biggest problem could be motivation. If he's got something to prove (like this year), it seems the chip on his shoulder makes him better...Tim Salmon (1/93): Health and PT an issue...Platoon is not going to work with him. He probably should get majority of the ABs between he and DaVanon. Will he?...That .228 AVG will rise with more ABs...Aaron Sele (1/95): The Angels don't have a bigger 'sell' candidate, not even Colon...He's a little piggy hangin' by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin...Has struck out 10 batters--in his last five starts...3.2 K/9, .272 BAA...Get rid of him now...Scot Shields (57/100): Rough patch of late, but it's mostly bad luck...12.0 K/9 over last month...Don't underestimate him. He gets lost easily in a bullpen with so many good pitchers with name recognition...Jarrod Washburn (49/100): His great control is his biggest asset, but his K/9 is getting lower...He keeps the ball in the park. He's given up half of his 14 bombs in only two bad starts...The fortune he's had could very easily change with all the run support and his 4.62 ERA. Could be a good trade blocker...
That's a look at your QTR. Any further analysis needed should be addressed to insidethehalo@insightbb.com.
What Inside the Halo is going to do for you is take a brief look at those players that are being rostered by the fantasy GMs out there and devise a "market strategy" in a few words to fill you in on their value and how they can affect your team in the future. We've based those worthy of including on ESPN's ownership ratings for mixed and non-mixed leagues, and if a player is owned 50% or greater of either a mixed or AL league, then he'll be included in our report (All ownership percentages are as of 7/8). It's your ITH QTR (we like acronyms). Let's roll it.
The 100/100 Club: Fully owned in both mixed and AL leagues.
...Garret Anderson: Business as usual. He doesn't walk much, but consistently smashes the ball. He doesn't smash it enough to keep his average from falling a little bit. He's had some fortunate hits and the tide will probably turn the other way. With a .231 average in July, the tide may already be turning just a tad...Chone Figgins: He's striking out more, his contact percentage has dropped 7% in the last month...The speed is for real. More triples than doubles (12 to 11) and will probably steal around 40...Forget the HR/RBI, the rest is gold...Vladimir Guerrero: The man is an absolute freak. He doesn't walk much either, but 70+ RBI, 70+ runs, .340+ AVG, 20 HR--are you kidding me? Don't worry about his health anymore. He's running and looking great. The bat is a wand in his hand--or a mallet--or a WMD, whatever...Jose Guillen: Here's another one that doesn't walk much (224 BB as a team is 13th in the AL...has a lot to do with .336 team OBP, which is 10th in AL). His average should stay fairly high though because he almost always makes hard contact. That helps...I wasn't convinced that he was for real after last year. It seems now that he probably is...Troy Percival: Early problems look like they were definitely injury-related. It's a small sample, but he's looked better since his return...Don't get too excited though. His K/BB ratio is still just 1.0. If that doesn't say RED FLAG: DANGER for a closer, I don't know what does. He's seen his best years, but could still help you out this season...Francisco Rodriguez: This is the guy that should be the closer, but whatta ya gonna do? 13.8 K/9...4.31 K/BB...shivers. If he were a closer, he'd be mentioned in the same breath as Gagne, Smoltz, Wagner, and Rivera. Acquire accordingly...
The Rest of the Angels' Portfolio: Ownership listed as percentages (Mixed/AL)
...Bartolo Colon (85/97): It is time to prepare to abandon ship. I'm not sayin' it's over for BC this year, but it's close...Since May, he's allowed at least 1 HR in every start but one. You would think it's has to stop, but it sure doesn't look that way...His K/BB is down in the last month or so and that was thus far his only silver lining...So far ERA and BAA has risen every month (it's getting close to astronomically ridiculous). Pack your lifeboat...Jeff DaVanon (4/89): In a platoon for now, which is never good for fantasy production... He's hitting .133 in July, so his luck appears to be running out. To use a phrase that the legendary Mr. Miyagi might, I'll say that Jeff DaVanon's best "karate" or "fantasy production" is not still inside him. It's been let out. AL owners should deal and soon...Brendan Donnelly (17/97): Can be had very easily right now in mixed leagues. I'd acquire...He's okay healthwise. You shouldn't expect '03-type stats, but he'll still be very helpful if he gets the innings...It's a small sample, but he's hit the ground running with a 10.7 K/9...David Eckstein (4/100): Frustratingly streaky...hit .341 in June and .241 thus far in July. Overall, he's closer to the .241, but he's still definitely worth owning for the hot stretches...Darin Erstad (24/100): I continue to maintain that he's bad and much worse than his numbers indicate...He continues to show otherwise with .291 and 9 SB right now...Know this. The power that somehow resulted in 25 HR in '00 is gone. Tumbleweed-blowing-in-the-dust gone. Erstad and Chone Figgins in a HR Derby would be both interesing and tragic to see...Kelvim Escobar (58/100): Here's one of those guys who isn't great (partly because he's getting no run support), but he certainly won't hurt you. He's off to a rocky July, but it's most likely a blip. However, watch the walks. He's walked 3 or more in 4 of his last 5 starts and the time he didn't he hit 2 batters, so it's basically the same--a free base runner. He's also shown a propensity to get wild in the past. Watch carefully...Not quite as overpowering as he was earlier in the year...Adam Kennedy (30/99): Looks like he may be heating up. It's probably a flash in the pan though...Hopefully the Angels will include him in a deal for Cabrera if the Cubs don't get him...He's got a little pop, speed, but his OBP kills a lot of his SB potential though (.316)...John Lackey (1/95): ALERT: Take a look at Lackey. Ks up, BBs down, he's been the best Halo starter over the last month plus. Since the beginning of June (7 starts), he's given up more than 2 ER twice (one time it was 3 ER). He's only walked more than 2 twice in 16 starts...Done all this fairly quietly. Anyone could use this guy right now. Very easy pick up in mixed, probably fairly easy trade material in AL. Buy...Bengie Molina (3/88): Almost always makes contact, the average is for real...Doesn't play enough to hit the 20 HR potential he's capable of. Sketchy health, but he can hit...Raul Mondesi (13/61): I laughed when I saw that per my guidelines, I would be required to include Mondesi in this report. What are 13% of mixed owners and 61% of AL owners thinking? He's NOT GONNA PLAY! Even if/when he comes back, he's probably the sixth guy in the mix for OF/DH. He's hits .236 (.722 OPS) career in his first AB of the game (think pinch hitter)...Ramon Ortiz (1/61): Value completely depends on whether he gets another chance to start. Can be serviceable without a HR problem...His biggest problem could be motivation. If he's got something to prove (like this year), it seems the chip on his shoulder makes him better...Tim Salmon (1/93): Health and PT an issue...Platoon is not going to work with him. He probably should get majority of the ABs between he and DaVanon. Will he?...That .228 AVG will rise with more ABs...Aaron Sele (1/95): The Angels don't have a bigger 'sell' candidate, not even Colon...He's a little piggy hangin' by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin...Has struck out 10 batters--in his last five starts...3.2 K/9, .272 BAA...Get rid of him now...Scot Shields (57/100): Rough patch of late, but it's mostly bad luck...12.0 K/9 over last month...Don't underestimate him. He gets lost easily in a bullpen with so many good pitchers with name recognition...Jarrod Washburn (49/100): His great control is his biggest asset, but his K/9 is getting lower...He keeps the ball in the park. He's given up half of his 14 bombs in only two bad starts...The fortune he's had could very easily change with all the run support and his 4.62 ERA. Could be a good trade blocker...
That's a look at your QTR. Any further analysis needed should be addressed to insidethehalo@insightbb.com.
