Friday, April 02, 2004
Draft Quick Hits, 4.2.2004
Vladimir Guerrero, OF: Currently going 1st round (4th overall, 2nd OF). YOU take him: This is going to sound like "nonsense from the new guy", but I wouldn't take him if I had the 4th pick. Beltran, Garciaparra, and Ramirez all seem like they would be better picks to me. That he's a first-rounder I'm not disputing, but a top 5? The back questions and the lack of SB (likely a permanent deal now) leave him just out of the top five. Are you going to be disappointed with him though? No way.
Garret Anderson, OF: Currently going round 5-7 (17th OF). YOU take him: That's about right. Garret is a solid 2nd OF for your team, and spending an early round pick like this isn't going to hurt you. His value has fallen recently a little, putting him more in line with where he should probably fall in the draft mix. He'll hit around .300 (but maybe not over) and he's a definite bet for 25 HR and with his last two years being his career best in SLG, you can probably bank on more than that this year. Also, as of today he has no deal for next year. That could factor into his free agent thinking for '05.
Bartolo Colon, P: Currently going round 6-8 (16 SP). YOU take him: Again, that's about the right spot. Colon's certainly in the top 15 starters in MLB and he'd be a great ace for your staff. Pitching in always easier to come by than hitting, but to make an exception here to grab BC wouldn't be a bad move. He's not going to get shelled that often and his depth into games gives him a chance at more Ws (and Ls). Good K rate and his control's at his career best right now. His only weakness--1090 IP the last 5 years. That could really start to take its toll.
Troy Percival, P: Currently going round 7-9 (8 RP). YOU take him: TP's on the way out. Sure, he's had 8 straight years with 25 Svs, and he could do it again, but at 34, with a bad hip, and a K/9 that went from 10.9 in '02 to 8.8 in '03, you've gotta figure his fortune's gonna run out sometime. I'm not necessarily sayin' this is the year (his OBA was still .192 last year, his 3rd straight year under .200), but he's mighty close to crossing the line in the sand from solid closer to "iffy". Don’t take him in the top ten closers based on name recognition. Wait for double digits and snag him if he's still there.
Troy Glaus, 3B: Currently going round 7-9 (5th 3B). YOU take him: Most folks are still bidding on his .284/47/102 season in '00. The 47 HR is more of a reality (although still high) than the .284. Don't bet on Troy hitting over .270 and you won't be disappointed. Troy is not an elite 3B anymore (only Rolen, Lowell, and Chavez qualify there), but he beats out guys like Blalock and Ramirez in sheer power (and he'll run more than both of them put together). He's steadily making more contact each year (his Ks have fallen 4 straight years--last year projected out to another decrease), but for now, I wouldn't expect a huge spike in AVG. Take 5th or take him 7th, it's entirely up to how much faith you have. I'd take him 5th.
Jose Guillen, OF: Currently going round late teens (52nd OF). YOU take him: Jose could go either way right now, and because of the uncertainty, I'd probably take him as a 5th/6th OF with an option to sub in case he goes back to his old stats. He's 27, so the time is now to lay the framework for what remains of his career. I'll tell you with confidence at this stage the .311 AVG of '03 is completely over his head. Guys who K 95 times and BB 24 don't hit .311 over the long haul. The power could be more legit (just like Glaus), but despite the buzz about Oakland, Angel Stadium is even less of a righty's HR park and he just hit 8 in OAK. Bet on almost 20 HR and probably .270 with AVG. There are safer bets.
Adam Kennedy, 2B: Currently going late teens (10th 2B). YOU take him: Assuming you took an elite level 2B earlier in the draft (please do), I'll say that Kennedy is just about the best candidate for your 2B/SS slot in baseball. Even if he's your main guy, you won't be completely disappointed. He gained a truckload of patience last year (going from 19 BB in '02 to 45 BB in '03 and dropping his K from 80 to 73) and if that sticks, his AVG could rise for real this time. The .312 in '02 was a mirage, so a jump this year to, say, .285 with the same patience as last year would be legit. He's got a little pop and a little speed (both legit). Don't get crazy, but Kennedy is a good pick in the 18-20 round range. Take him as early as 8th at 2B.
Darin Erstad, OF: Currently going at clean up time (68th OF). YOU take him: I really wouldn't. He's just got very little to add that you can't find elsewhere with a much greater upside. Yeah, he went .355/25/100 in '00, but if you asked a Magic 8-ball if that were going to happen again, you'd no doubt get something like "Not Very Likely" as your answer. This could be the least productive everyday 1B in the majors this year. Look elsewhere.
Tim Salmon, OF: Currently going at clean up time (80th OF). YOU take him: Now this is an Angel that could actually give you some significant help with a last-round-or-two pick. The power's not what it once was, but his patience is at career-high levels and his SLG took a little spike in the 2nd half last year. He could certainly go .285/20/85 and with a last pick, that ain't bad at all. Funny how his line could look very similar to Guillen's who'll go probably at least five rounds earlier.
Francisco Rodriguez, P: Currently going at clean up time. YOU take him: Clearly he's got talent and will help air condition Angel Stadium throughout the summer, but he's still only 22 and there'll be speed bumps. He's had some pretty good fortune so far, and could certainly give you a cheap win here and there, but don't bank on a sub-3.50 ERA. If you've got the spot, he won't hurt you, but he won't get you many saves either as long as Percival's healthy. If Troy should go down though, he'll get the nod to close because Donnelly won't be 100% for a while, so you'll be glad you had the insurance. All this is wonderful, but like most ESPN drafters, for now I wouldn't roster him.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
Garret Anderson, OF: Currently going round 5-7 (17th OF). YOU take him: That's about right. Garret is a solid 2nd OF for your team, and spending an early round pick like this isn't going to hurt you. His value has fallen recently a little, putting him more in line with where he should probably fall in the draft mix. He'll hit around .300 (but maybe not over) and he's a definite bet for 25 HR and with his last two years being his career best in SLG, you can probably bank on more than that this year. Also, as of today he has no deal for next year. That could factor into his free agent thinking for '05.
Bartolo Colon, P: Currently going round 6-8 (16 SP). YOU take him: Again, that's about the right spot. Colon's certainly in the top 15 starters in MLB and he'd be a great ace for your staff. Pitching in always easier to come by than hitting, but to make an exception here to grab BC wouldn't be a bad move. He's not going to get shelled that often and his depth into games gives him a chance at more Ws (and Ls). Good K rate and his control's at his career best right now. His only weakness--1090 IP the last 5 years. That could really start to take its toll.
Troy Percival, P: Currently going round 7-9 (8 RP). YOU take him: TP's on the way out. Sure, he's had 8 straight years with 25 Svs, and he could do it again, but at 34, with a bad hip, and a K/9 that went from 10.9 in '02 to 8.8 in '03, you've gotta figure his fortune's gonna run out sometime. I'm not necessarily sayin' this is the year (his OBA was still .192 last year, his 3rd straight year under .200), but he's mighty close to crossing the line in the sand from solid closer to "iffy". Don’t take him in the top ten closers based on name recognition. Wait for double digits and snag him if he's still there.
Troy Glaus, 3B: Currently going round 7-9 (5th 3B). YOU take him: Most folks are still bidding on his .284/47/102 season in '00. The 47 HR is more of a reality (although still high) than the .284. Don't bet on Troy hitting over .270 and you won't be disappointed. Troy is not an elite 3B anymore (only Rolen, Lowell, and Chavez qualify there), but he beats out guys like Blalock and Ramirez in sheer power (and he'll run more than both of them put together). He's steadily making more contact each year (his Ks have fallen 4 straight years--last year projected out to another decrease), but for now, I wouldn't expect a huge spike in AVG. Take 5th or take him 7th, it's entirely up to how much faith you have. I'd take him 5th.
Jose Guillen, OF: Currently going round late teens (52nd OF). YOU take him: Jose could go either way right now, and because of the uncertainty, I'd probably take him as a 5th/6th OF with an option to sub in case he goes back to his old stats. He's 27, so the time is now to lay the framework for what remains of his career. I'll tell you with confidence at this stage the .311 AVG of '03 is completely over his head. Guys who K 95 times and BB 24 don't hit .311 over the long haul. The power could be more legit (just like Glaus), but despite the buzz about Oakland, Angel Stadium is even less of a righty's HR park and he just hit 8 in OAK. Bet on almost 20 HR and probably .270 with AVG. There are safer bets.
Adam Kennedy, 2B: Currently going late teens (10th 2B). YOU take him: Assuming you took an elite level 2B earlier in the draft (please do), I'll say that Kennedy is just about the best candidate for your 2B/SS slot in baseball. Even if he's your main guy, you won't be completely disappointed. He gained a truckload of patience last year (going from 19 BB in '02 to 45 BB in '03 and dropping his K from 80 to 73) and if that sticks, his AVG could rise for real this time. The .312 in '02 was a mirage, so a jump this year to, say, .285 with the same patience as last year would be legit. He's got a little pop and a little speed (both legit). Don't get crazy, but Kennedy is a good pick in the 18-20 round range. Take him as early as 8th at 2B.
Darin Erstad, OF: Currently going at clean up time (68th OF). YOU take him: I really wouldn't. He's just got very little to add that you can't find elsewhere with a much greater upside. Yeah, he went .355/25/100 in '00, but if you asked a Magic 8-ball if that were going to happen again, you'd no doubt get something like "Not Very Likely" as your answer. This could be the least productive everyday 1B in the majors this year. Look elsewhere.
Tim Salmon, OF: Currently going at clean up time (80th OF). YOU take him: Now this is an Angel that could actually give you some significant help with a last-round-or-two pick. The power's not what it once was, but his patience is at career-high levels and his SLG took a little spike in the 2nd half last year. He could certainly go .285/20/85 and with a last pick, that ain't bad at all. Funny how his line could look very similar to Guillen's who'll go probably at least five rounds earlier.
Francisco Rodriguez, P: Currently going at clean up time. YOU take him: Clearly he's got talent and will help air condition Angel Stadium throughout the summer, but he's still only 22 and there'll be speed bumps. He's had some pretty good fortune so far, and could certainly give you a cheap win here and there, but don't bank on a sub-3.50 ERA. If you've got the spot, he won't hurt you, but he won't get you many saves either as long as Percival's healthy. If Troy should go down though, he'll get the nod to close because Donnelly won't be 100% for a while, so you'll be glad you had the insurance. All this is wonderful, but like most ESPN drafters, for now I wouldn't roster him.
Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.
