Friday, April 02, 2004
Regular Season is Here/Infield Preview
Headin' North
The Angels wrapped up the Cactus League with a 16-13-1 record (as if that matters). What does matter is that Ramon Ortiz has been given the 5 hole in the rotation that we discussed last time. I'm glad it wasn't Sele, but I'm not glad it was Ortiz either. I've been getting e-mail from some folks in CA who hold RO much nearer and dearer than I do, but their praise hasn't lifted my hopes or expectations for Ortiz. Pitching coach Bud Black said that he sees no reason why RO can't be a 15-16 game winner again, according to the LA Daily News. My statement would've been that I can see one reason--only one reason. Run support. Sele now makes 8.5 mil to be the long man in the pen. I do suppose that's better than the 11.7 mil the Angels are paying Kevin Appier in '04 to pitch for the Royals.
From the "Halos Hurt" deparment, Bengie Molina left the game Wednesday with more hammy problems. Scioscia says he may sit over the weekend against LA but will play Tuesday against Seattle to open the season. He's fought and won these battles before, but keep an eye on this. I think Bengie could help you out if you're weak at C and he's healthy. Also, Brendan Donnelly could be out a while, as short as next weekend, as long as June. I would expect something in between, but maybe closer to the June mark. Let's hope it's not too long. Finally, when the cut to 25 finally comes--and it's required by Sunday--I'll let you know who stayed and went and what it all means. For now, as promised, let's go around the horn to Darin Erstad.
Darin Erstad, 1B
His 2000 line looked like this: .355/25/100, 121 R/28 SB (You just knew I was going to reference that, didn't you?). In '04, people are wondering whether to roster him at all. Is there any chance of him posting numbers like he did before? Does the change to 1B mean anything? No and not much. He hasn't slugged over .400 since '00, and his OBP hasn't topped .325. He hits way too many ground balls to hit more than 10 HRs, but the power's gone anyway. Will he still run? Yeah, maybe, if he's healthy (right now he is). So--what to do? He'll keep his OF eligibility all year, so he could help you with a little speed, but that's it. I'm surprised that 33% of people in ESPN leagues have wasted the space. Here's a prediction--this could be the least productive full-time 1B in MLB in '04.
Adam Kennedy, 2B
Last time, I talked about one major problem in the Angels infield. Well, now we're past it (Erstad) and from here, things get better. Kennedy is just one year removed from a team-leading .312 AVG (.269 in '03). While he won't see .312 in '04, I would expect him to make lasting changes in a positive direction to his AVG if he continues the patience he showed in '03 (73 K, 45 BB), which was the best of his career. He'll bat 9th so don't count on RBI, but the improved offense will probably boost his R (71 in '03). SBs have been consistent and will remain so. Maybe the biggest question is whether he can continue his upward HR trend. AK's a flyball hitter, so that's positive but I'd bet on 10 with the knowledge that it could be more. He's maybe the best choice for the 2B/SS spot in MLB.
David Eckstein, SS
Eckstein is known it seems league-wide as the guy who looks the least like a MLB player every time he takes the field. How does he manage to get the job done? Can he help you at all on your team? Yeah, I think he can. It'll be marginal, but sometimes those marginal players make all the difference. He's got speed and will help there (like Kennedy) and batting at the top of this order will certainly score some runs if he can just get on base. Last year's AVG was down big, but that was ruined by a .236 first half. He was normal after the break (.280). Expect that AVG and maybe a little higher. As for SB, that's the Halos' game. Expect him (and Erstad and Kennedy) to run, even with the new bats in the lineup. Expecting 20 swipes would not be ridiculous at all.
Troy Glaus, 3B
Here's where I smile. Glaus hit 47 HR in '00, 41 in '01, but many people think that after 30 in '02, and 16 in '03 (projected to 29 full season), his power will continue to fall. Will it? I say no. Mid-to-upper 30s wouldn't be outta the question, because his SLG was rebounding last year before the break (.490 up from .453 in' 02). His '03 K numbers projected to be his lowest in his career, while his BBs stayed pretty stable. He's making more contact, which should bring his AVG up--a little. I'd expect around .260 instead of the normal .250. His SBs could also be their highest (around 12-15). He'll bat fifth in a loaded order, so simply put, his value is probably as low as its going to be for a long while, so get him now at a position that's the shallowest in FLB this year.
On Deck
Next time we'll wrap up the previews with the guys who roam the grass, who may be the best group in the AL (especially as long as Nixon is out in BOS). Also, the Draft Quick Hits are updated at Inside the Halo (http://angelsflb.blogspot.com). The e-mail is angelsflb@insightbb.com if you need it. I'm pumped for the regular season--it's almost here. Colon will face Jamie Moyer on Tuesday at Safeco Park to open the '04 campaign. So grab your hat, bat, and glove and let's get on the road to the World Series. The NBA and NHL may be headed into the playoffs and the Final Four starts tomorrow, but in just a few days, baseball fans will remember why a long fly ball in the bottom of the ninth is still the most beautiful thing in sports. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
The Angels wrapped up the Cactus League with a 16-13-1 record (as if that matters). What does matter is that Ramon Ortiz has been given the 5 hole in the rotation that we discussed last time. I'm glad it wasn't Sele, but I'm not glad it was Ortiz either. I've been getting e-mail from some folks in CA who hold RO much nearer and dearer than I do, but their praise hasn't lifted my hopes or expectations for Ortiz. Pitching coach Bud Black said that he sees no reason why RO can't be a 15-16 game winner again, according to the LA Daily News. My statement would've been that I can see one reason--only one reason. Run support. Sele now makes 8.5 mil to be the long man in the pen. I do suppose that's better than the 11.7 mil the Angels are paying Kevin Appier in '04 to pitch for the Royals.
From the "Halos Hurt" deparment, Bengie Molina left the game Wednesday with more hammy problems. Scioscia says he may sit over the weekend against LA but will play Tuesday against Seattle to open the season. He's fought and won these battles before, but keep an eye on this. I think Bengie could help you out if you're weak at C and he's healthy. Also, Brendan Donnelly could be out a while, as short as next weekend, as long as June. I would expect something in between, but maybe closer to the June mark. Let's hope it's not too long. Finally, when the cut to 25 finally comes--and it's required by Sunday--I'll let you know who stayed and went and what it all means. For now, as promised, let's go around the horn to Darin Erstad.
Darin Erstad, 1B
His 2000 line looked like this: .355/25/100, 121 R/28 SB (You just knew I was going to reference that, didn't you?). In '04, people are wondering whether to roster him at all. Is there any chance of him posting numbers like he did before? Does the change to 1B mean anything? No and not much. He hasn't slugged over .400 since '00, and his OBP hasn't topped .325. He hits way too many ground balls to hit more than 10 HRs, but the power's gone anyway. Will he still run? Yeah, maybe, if he's healthy (right now he is). So--what to do? He'll keep his OF eligibility all year, so he could help you with a little speed, but that's it. I'm surprised that 33% of people in ESPN leagues have wasted the space. Here's a prediction--this could be the least productive full-time 1B in MLB in '04.
Adam Kennedy, 2B
Last time, I talked about one major problem in the Angels infield. Well, now we're past it (Erstad) and from here, things get better. Kennedy is just one year removed from a team-leading .312 AVG (.269 in '03). While he won't see .312 in '04, I would expect him to make lasting changes in a positive direction to his AVG if he continues the patience he showed in '03 (73 K, 45 BB), which was the best of his career. He'll bat 9th so don't count on RBI, but the improved offense will probably boost his R (71 in '03). SBs have been consistent and will remain so. Maybe the biggest question is whether he can continue his upward HR trend. AK's a flyball hitter, so that's positive but I'd bet on 10 with the knowledge that it could be more. He's maybe the best choice for the 2B/SS spot in MLB.
David Eckstein, SS
Eckstein is known it seems league-wide as the guy who looks the least like a MLB player every time he takes the field. How does he manage to get the job done? Can he help you at all on your team? Yeah, I think he can. It'll be marginal, but sometimes those marginal players make all the difference. He's got speed and will help there (like Kennedy) and batting at the top of this order will certainly score some runs if he can just get on base. Last year's AVG was down big, but that was ruined by a .236 first half. He was normal after the break (.280). Expect that AVG and maybe a little higher. As for SB, that's the Halos' game. Expect him (and Erstad and Kennedy) to run, even with the new bats in the lineup. Expecting 20 swipes would not be ridiculous at all.
Troy Glaus, 3B
Here's where I smile. Glaus hit 47 HR in '00, 41 in '01, but many people think that after 30 in '02, and 16 in '03 (projected to 29 full season), his power will continue to fall. Will it? I say no. Mid-to-upper 30s wouldn't be outta the question, because his SLG was rebounding last year before the break (.490 up from .453 in' 02). His '03 K numbers projected to be his lowest in his career, while his BBs stayed pretty stable. He's making more contact, which should bring his AVG up--a little. I'd expect around .260 instead of the normal .250. His SBs could also be their highest (around 12-15). He'll bat fifth in a loaded order, so simply put, his value is probably as low as its going to be for a long while, so get him now at a position that's the shallowest in FLB this year.
On Deck
Next time we'll wrap up the previews with the guys who roam the grass, who may be the best group in the AL (especially as long as Nixon is out in BOS). Also, the Draft Quick Hits are updated at Inside the Halo (http://angelsflb.blogspot.com). The e-mail is angelsflb@insightbb.com if you need it. I'm pumped for the regular season--it's almost here. Colon will face Jamie Moyer on Tuesday at Safeco Park to open the '04 campaign. So grab your hat, bat, and glove and let's get on the road to the World Series. The NBA and NHL may be headed into the playoffs and the Final Four starts tomorrow, but in just a few days, baseball fans will remember why a long fly ball in the bottom of the ninth is still the most beautiful thing in sports. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
