Friday, April 29, 2005
April Fools? West Coast Edition
I did something earlier this week over on the Reds page that has gotten a significant response from readers. I hadn't really planned to do it here, but since it was well received and sparked debate in NL, then it probably can't hurt to do it in the junior circuit. Besides, it fits all teams and all fantasy players in that we're all familiar with the "late-April freak-out". That includes 1 of 2 things--removing your fist from the ceiling a la Pepsi commercial because you drafted Brian Roberts OR assuring your friends and family that they can remove the suicide watch despite all your "can't miss" draft picks stinking up the place and leaving you in dead last in your league. Currently, I'm in the 2nd group and I just wanna say, "Mom, Dad--I'm gonna be okay."
John Lackey
A year ago, I called Lackey "The Riddler"--so much genius yet we can't explain why he uses it all for evil. Then, Lackey pitched better than his already respectable numbers in the second half of '04. His K/9 shot up to 8.5 with a 9-5 record and 4.36 ERA. 2005, then, looked much brighter. Well, he's yet to make it through the 6th inning in 5 starts and although he's striking batters out, he's walked 2 or more in 4 of the 5. He's also averaged 103 pitches in those starts, showing terrible economy there. I said just last week that Lackey's problem is primarily in his head, and last night was a small step forward, winning at The Stadium. He's FOOLING you. History says he'll get the walks down and start pitching better. Start him in good matchups, and don't give up yet.
Jarrod Washburn
Wash has been a tale of 2 starters so far this year. Starts 1-3-5: 1-0, 0.42 ERA, 17 K in 21.2 IP. Starts 2-4: No decisions, 9.58 ERA in 10.1 IP. If Lackey is The Riddler, then Washburn should definitely be cast as Two-Face. Who can you expect the rest of the season? I've said many times the risk with Wash is all your own and I wouldn't roster him. On the bright side, I do think Wash's WHIP will go down--he's not walking many hitters (7 in 32 IP) and his opponents are getting some extra hits to drop in (35% hit rate). What's interesting to note about his inconsistency is that his number of good starts heave remained steady (about 2 in 5), but his terrible starts have increased the last 3 years (up to 1 in 5 in '04). That means his April is probably FOOLS GOLD. At your own risk.
Steve Finley
One of 2 big offensive additions this year, Finley has managed a whopping .165 AVG through April. He was asked a couple of weeks ago by a LA reporter what would bring him out of his current slump and he replied, "May." He may be right. Since 2002, he's a .229 hitter in April. May? .309. June? .349. Finley's start is definitely FOOLING you. His 19% hit rate tells you that alone. His '02-'04 average was 29%, which would raise his AVG dramatically. He's also making contact almost 90% of the time, and it's hard to slump for long when you're consistently putting the ball in play. Steve will hit 20+ bombs for a much better average and in the 5 or 6 hole probably drive in close to or more than 100 runs. He's still pretty universally owned, but now's the time for a cheap trade.
Garret Anderson
There are a lot of things to not like about 2005 for Anderson. He's walked twice in a month (although admittedly he's never walked very much), getting the free pass in only 2% of his ABs. His BB/K is the lowest of his career. He's not hitting for much power and it doesn’t look like his bat is very live. I'm not surprised at all at his 2 HR total. A lot of people e-mailed me before Opening Day asking whether we'd see the GA of old and I told them I thought we would. I may have been wrong. Yes, he's still hitting.300, but it sure doesn't appear as if the power has come back to his back since his injury last year. His .433 SLG is a mark we haven't seen since 1997. I hate to say it, but GA's start may not be fooling you. It may just be BITTER REALITY.
Around the Halo
Way too early to proclaim "I told you so", but did Kelvim Escobar look solid in his first start or what? I know guys who'd still deal him--you'd do well to identify them now. They won't deal him 4 weeks from now--trust me. Adam Kennedy is tearing up AAA. How's a .538 AVG with 2 SB sound after 3 games? Yeah, it's AAA, but as soon as he's got his wind, he'll be back and it looks like he's 100%. That's a good sign--especially since he's got to prove that he's better than Figgins now. Bengie Molina should also be back fairly soon. His start was notable and I'd expect it to continue when he returns as long as the injury doesn't linger. Macier Izturis is gone for 4-6 weeks but won't need surgery. You AL owners can waive his anemic offense now. That's leaves 3B all to D-Mac.
Which begs the question--how will Dallas McPherson do with all the pressure of having to fill the spot in the lineup, fly or flop, with minimal experience on a team that figures to win the division? I'll take an in-depth look at McPherson next time. A lot of owners are expecting big things from him (and they should), but is 2005 too early? It shouldn't have been a surprise that A-Rod tagged Bartolo Colon for 3 bombs and 10 RBI on Tuesday. Prior to that, he was hitting .378 with 3 HR and 5 RBI off him anyway. It was good to win 2 of 3 at the Stadium, regardless of how old the Yankee lineup is. Not new though. The Angels are 8-4 there the last 3 years. Finally, the Press Enterprise logged the bullpen ERA at 0.91 the last 39.2 IP. That's just pure. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
John Lackey
A year ago, I called Lackey "The Riddler"--so much genius yet we can't explain why he uses it all for evil. Then, Lackey pitched better than his already respectable numbers in the second half of '04. His K/9 shot up to 8.5 with a 9-5 record and 4.36 ERA. 2005, then, looked much brighter. Well, he's yet to make it through the 6th inning in 5 starts and although he's striking batters out, he's walked 2 or more in 4 of the 5. He's also averaged 103 pitches in those starts, showing terrible economy there. I said just last week that Lackey's problem is primarily in his head, and last night was a small step forward, winning at The Stadium. He's FOOLING you. History says he'll get the walks down and start pitching better. Start him in good matchups, and don't give up yet.
Jarrod Washburn
Wash has been a tale of 2 starters so far this year. Starts 1-3-5: 1-0, 0.42 ERA, 17 K in 21.2 IP. Starts 2-4: No decisions, 9.58 ERA in 10.1 IP. If Lackey is The Riddler, then Washburn should definitely be cast as Two-Face. Who can you expect the rest of the season? I've said many times the risk with Wash is all your own and I wouldn't roster him. On the bright side, I do think Wash's WHIP will go down--he's not walking many hitters (7 in 32 IP) and his opponents are getting some extra hits to drop in (35% hit rate). What's interesting to note about his inconsistency is that his number of good starts heave remained steady (about 2 in 5), but his terrible starts have increased the last 3 years (up to 1 in 5 in '04). That means his April is probably FOOLS GOLD. At your own risk.
Steve Finley
One of 2 big offensive additions this year, Finley has managed a whopping .165 AVG through April. He was asked a couple of weeks ago by a LA reporter what would bring him out of his current slump and he replied, "May." He may be right. Since 2002, he's a .229 hitter in April. May? .309. June? .349. Finley's start is definitely FOOLING you. His 19% hit rate tells you that alone. His '02-'04 average was 29%, which would raise his AVG dramatically. He's also making contact almost 90% of the time, and it's hard to slump for long when you're consistently putting the ball in play. Steve will hit 20+ bombs for a much better average and in the 5 or 6 hole probably drive in close to or more than 100 runs. He's still pretty universally owned, but now's the time for a cheap trade.
Garret Anderson
There are a lot of things to not like about 2005 for Anderson. He's walked twice in a month (although admittedly he's never walked very much), getting the free pass in only 2% of his ABs. His BB/K is the lowest of his career. He's not hitting for much power and it doesn’t look like his bat is very live. I'm not surprised at all at his 2 HR total. A lot of people e-mailed me before Opening Day asking whether we'd see the GA of old and I told them I thought we would. I may have been wrong. Yes, he's still hitting.300, but it sure doesn't appear as if the power has come back to his back since his injury last year. His .433 SLG is a mark we haven't seen since 1997. I hate to say it, but GA's start may not be fooling you. It may just be BITTER REALITY.
Around the Halo
Way too early to proclaim "I told you so", but did Kelvim Escobar look solid in his first start or what? I know guys who'd still deal him--you'd do well to identify them now. They won't deal him 4 weeks from now--trust me. Adam Kennedy is tearing up AAA. How's a .538 AVG with 2 SB sound after 3 games? Yeah, it's AAA, but as soon as he's got his wind, he'll be back and it looks like he's 100%. That's a good sign--especially since he's got to prove that he's better than Figgins now. Bengie Molina should also be back fairly soon. His start was notable and I'd expect it to continue when he returns as long as the injury doesn't linger. Macier Izturis is gone for 4-6 weeks but won't need surgery. You AL owners can waive his anemic offense now. That's leaves 3B all to D-Mac.
Which begs the question--how will Dallas McPherson do with all the pressure of having to fill the spot in the lineup, fly or flop, with minimal experience on a team that figures to win the division? I'll take an in-depth look at McPherson next time. A lot of owners are expecting big things from him (and they should), but is 2005 too early? It shouldn't have been a surprise that A-Rod tagged Bartolo Colon for 3 bombs and 10 RBI on Tuesday. Prior to that, he was hitting .378 with 3 HR and 5 RBI off him anyway. It was good to win 2 of 3 at the Stadium, regardless of how old the Yankee lineup is. Not new though. The Angels are 8-4 there the last 3 years. Finally, the Press Enterprise logged the bullpen ERA at 0.91 the last 39.2 IP. That's just pure. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
