Friday, April 01, 2005
Draft/Season Preview Vol. 4
We’ve looked at the infield, outfield, and the starting rotation (Vols. 1-3). Your final edition of the Preview will take a gander at the bullpen. GM Danny Boy dismantled a pen that was 1 of only 2 that finished with a 5.00+ ERA in the NL. Only 3 faces from last year’s team remain--closer Danny Graves, youngin’ Ryan Wagner, and the fantasy-inconsequential Joe Valentine. We’ll look at Graves, Wagner, and a few new faces to see if the Reds new pen can break 5.00 or if it will be more of the same. At press time (listen to me sound like a big-timey writer), there are still some decisions to be made concerning the pen, but those shouldn’t alter the analysis much. As you know, the last guy in the pen rarely has any effect on the fantasy game--unless he murders the closer or something.
Danny Graves
Speaking of closers, Danny Graves isn't being stalked and neither is his job. Of course, that's because there's been no one with the stuff to take it from him--which is sad because Graves hasn't been closer material since he was handed the job. Even with 41 saves in '04, he only fanned 5.3 per 9, which would've done him in if his control wasn't absolutely pinpoint. His K/9 hasn't been over 5.5 in the last 5 years. He throws a lot of groundballs, which is good at GABP, but the last 2 seasons he's still been tagged for 1.6 HR/9. There's very little to like about Graves, but as long as his control stays where it is (1.7 BB/9), he'll appear serviceable. BOTTOM LINE: Take him in the last batch of closers, knowing that at least you have a closer with job security.
Ryan Wagner
If anyone in this group has the ability to unseat Graves, it's Wagner. He's had an excellent spring (1.38 ERA, 13 IP, 10 K, 3 BB) and he's got excellent stuff when he's on. Therein lies the problem, though--he's only 22 this year and he's way too inconsistent at this point in his young career to get any kind of read. In 2004, he posted a gut-wrenching 5.0 BB/9, ended up in AAA for most of the season, and folks who were proclaiming "Closer in '05!" went running for cover. The good news is that he did improve somewhat in the 2nd half and appears to have a better mental approach this season. BOTTOM LINE: The talent is there. But I'm not sure he's through his growing pains yet. He's a good speculative pick, but watch for consistency before placing too many eggs in his basket.
Kent Mercker/David Weathers/Ben Weber
The Reds forked over about 6 million this year to bring these 3 in, and for your fantasy roster, only 1 seems to be of any value whatsoever. Weathers has a pretty good K-rate, but he's always walked too many and that probably won't change this year. The Human Butter Churn (Weber) could prove to be the worst signing the Reds made this offseason after he was basically shelled out of the Anaheim farm system. AVOID. Mercker, though, shows a little bit of promise, even at 37. The bad news is that the last 2 seasons he's pitched over his head and been quite lucky. The good news--he shaves a few walks and he could be very effective. He's still extremely hard to hit (207 OBA in '04). Despite the luck, the skills are still there. BOTTOM LINE: Weathers, NO. Weber, DOUBLE NO. Mercker, yes.
Matt Belisle/Joe Valentine
Neither of these guys will add anything should they make the team and with the loser of the rotation scramble among Hudson, Hancock, and Claussen probably ending up in the pen as the long man, there will probably be very little work for them anyway. Belisle just doesn't have major league stuff and Valentine walks way too many people to be effective. Valentine has fanned 7 but also walked 7 this spring, showing no improvement. I've discussed Hancock and Claussen already in Vol. 3 (located now at theredletters.blogspot.com), so I won't repeat myself here. BOTTOM LINE: I make a bold prediction that this is the last copy space I allocate to discuss either Belisle or Valentine this season.
Picking at the Carcass
The last 3 seasons the Reds have finished in the top 3 in the NL for reliever wins. That means when you've got a good offense and the starters are lackluster, an adequate reliever will have a chance to post several vulture wins in a season. This year will probably feature more of the same. The rotation is improved, but with exactly 100 vulture wins out of the pen from '02-'04, pick the right reliever and you could end up with 7-9 extra wins for your team. Targets? Mercker's a good bet, Wagner (provided he keeps the BBs down), or maybe even the rotation loser, be it Hancock, Claussen, or Hudson. BOTTOM LINE: It's up to Miley because it's all about opportunity, but your best bet is probably Mercker.
Am I Missing Something Here?
If you're strictly an Angel fan, there's a good chance you're thinking I've flipped my wig. But no--APRIL FOOLS (yes, it's weak, but I didn't have invisible ink or silly puddy). Your Angels bullpen Preview is over at The Red Letters (plus now you see just how good the Angels have it compared to some other less-fortunate teams). Your next regularly-scheduled column will be the first of the regular season, with the play on the field dictating the content (although you can expect the obligatory postseason predictions in there somewhere). I'm looking forward to being with you for a 2nd season covering the Angels. Thanks for all your e-mails (the kind ones anyway); keep 'em coming and I'll do my best to get back to you in a timely fashion. There's only one thing left to say. PLAY BALL!
Danny Graves
Speaking of closers, Danny Graves isn't being stalked and neither is his job. Of course, that's because there's been no one with the stuff to take it from him--which is sad because Graves hasn't been closer material since he was handed the job. Even with 41 saves in '04, he only fanned 5.3 per 9, which would've done him in if his control wasn't absolutely pinpoint. His K/9 hasn't been over 5.5 in the last 5 years. He throws a lot of groundballs, which is good at GABP, but the last 2 seasons he's still been tagged for 1.6 HR/9. There's very little to like about Graves, but as long as his control stays where it is (1.7 BB/9), he'll appear serviceable. BOTTOM LINE: Take him in the last batch of closers, knowing that at least you have a closer with job security.
Ryan Wagner
If anyone in this group has the ability to unseat Graves, it's Wagner. He's had an excellent spring (1.38 ERA, 13 IP, 10 K, 3 BB) and he's got excellent stuff when he's on. Therein lies the problem, though--he's only 22 this year and he's way too inconsistent at this point in his young career to get any kind of read. In 2004, he posted a gut-wrenching 5.0 BB/9, ended up in AAA for most of the season, and folks who were proclaiming "Closer in '05!" went running for cover. The good news is that he did improve somewhat in the 2nd half and appears to have a better mental approach this season. BOTTOM LINE: The talent is there. But I'm not sure he's through his growing pains yet. He's a good speculative pick, but watch for consistency before placing too many eggs in his basket.
Kent Mercker/David Weathers/Ben Weber
The Reds forked over about 6 million this year to bring these 3 in, and for your fantasy roster, only 1 seems to be of any value whatsoever. Weathers has a pretty good K-rate, but he's always walked too many and that probably won't change this year. The Human Butter Churn (Weber) could prove to be the worst signing the Reds made this offseason after he was basically shelled out of the Anaheim farm system. AVOID. Mercker, though, shows a little bit of promise, even at 37. The bad news is that the last 2 seasons he's pitched over his head and been quite lucky. The good news--he shaves a few walks and he could be very effective. He's still extremely hard to hit (207 OBA in '04). Despite the luck, the skills are still there. BOTTOM LINE: Weathers, NO. Weber, DOUBLE NO. Mercker, yes.
Matt Belisle/Joe Valentine
Neither of these guys will add anything should they make the team and with the loser of the rotation scramble among Hudson, Hancock, and Claussen probably ending up in the pen as the long man, there will probably be very little work for them anyway. Belisle just doesn't have major league stuff and Valentine walks way too many people to be effective. Valentine has fanned 7 but also walked 7 this spring, showing no improvement. I've discussed Hancock and Claussen already in Vol. 3 (located now at theredletters.blogspot.com), so I won't repeat myself here. BOTTOM LINE: I make a bold prediction that this is the last copy space I allocate to discuss either Belisle or Valentine this season.
Picking at the Carcass
The last 3 seasons the Reds have finished in the top 3 in the NL for reliever wins. That means when you've got a good offense and the starters are lackluster, an adequate reliever will have a chance to post several vulture wins in a season. This year will probably feature more of the same. The rotation is improved, but with exactly 100 vulture wins out of the pen from '02-'04, pick the right reliever and you could end up with 7-9 extra wins for your team. Targets? Mercker's a good bet, Wagner (provided he keeps the BBs down), or maybe even the rotation loser, be it Hancock, Claussen, or Hudson. BOTTOM LINE: It's up to Miley because it's all about opportunity, but your best bet is probably Mercker.
Am I Missing Something Here?
If you're strictly an Angel fan, there's a good chance you're thinking I've flipped my wig. But no--APRIL FOOLS (yes, it's weak, but I didn't have invisible ink or silly puddy). Your Angels bullpen Preview is over at The Red Letters (plus now you see just how good the Angels have it compared to some other less-fortunate teams). Your next regularly-scheduled column will be the first of the regular season, with the play on the field dictating the content (although you can expect the obligatory postseason predictions in there somewhere). I'm looking forward to being with you for a 2nd season covering the Angels. Thanks for all your e-mails (the kind ones anyway); keep 'em coming and I'll do my best to get back to you in a timely fashion. There's only one thing left to say. PLAY BALL!
