Sunday, February 13, 2005
The Calm Before the Storm
Four days until we'll see guys like Jarrod Washburn, Kelvim Escobar, Paul Byrd, Jose Molina, K-Rod and our favorite heavy (cough) hitters (Bengie Molina), and, er, pitchers (like Bartolo Colon) arrive at Spring Training 2005. It's been a pretty slow news cycle (or three) for the Halos of late, at least concerning things on the field. Yes, the long bridal name-train of Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will still follow the Halos around for the foreseeable future. Now, it's up to the boys on the field to not be a bridesmaid. Trains look okay on brides. Bridesmaids? No.
Saves and Whammies
We're fantasy baseball people, right? We love stats, right (most of us more than is healthy)? I think the folks at MLB.com have caught a bit of the fever, and it apparently gets really when contracted by those who basically have no idea what they're talking about. Take the survey on the official Halos homepage, for instance. Here's the question: How many saves will closer Francisco Rodriguez record in 2005? Your choices are: less than 35, 35-40, 41-45, 46-50, more than 50. I participated just to see the responses. Over 9000 people have voted in this thing. There are 9000 people (minus 1--me) who think they have a clue how many games K-Rod will save! You know what though--the onus really isn't theirs though. It's on the misguided folks who posed the question.
Let's put it like this--there's no way to know how many games he'll save. Predicting saves boldly is like screaming "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" on Press Your Luck with our good friend Peter Tomarken. Both parties call out, squint their eyes, hit the buzzer (okay, that's just on PYK), and then hope for the best. The reason this is foolish (although repeatedly shouting "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" sure is fun, try right now, wherever you are, you'll see) is not because saves can't possibly be predicted. It's because save OPPORTUNITIES can't possibly be predicted. Head Cheese Eric Karabell did a good column on this last year. Without benefit of those stats now, however, take a look at this--Keith Foulke, full-time closer of the World Champion Boston Red Sox had 39 save opps. Jason Isringhausen of the NL Champ Cardinals? 54.
I'm not done. How about two other closers on comparable teams in the middle? Jose Mesa of the Pirates racked up 48 save opps. Jorge Julio from the also 70-ish win Baltimore Orioles? A whopping 26. I could go on--I won't waste the time. With save opps, there are too many non-controllable factors (at least by the closer) to figure in. We all know the save is a corny stat anyway, when you really think about it. If you wanna give a guy a stat for finishing the game, call it a 'Finish' cause that's what he did. 'Save' and 'Finish' aren’t synonomous. That "middle reliever" who came in and got the opponent's left-handed masher in the 8th inning with a three-run lead with the bases loaded? He's the one that save the game. You got three groundouts with a three-run lead. That's a 'Finish'.
Anyway, to sum up, we should all ponder how many save opportunities Frankie will have this year, not saves. If you knew that, you could really get close on saves. A guy of K-Rod's caliber is gonna save around 90-92% percent of the "finishes" he's assigned. So if he's as "fortunate" as Mariano Rivera last year with 57 save opps, he'll probably reel in about 52. If he's draws Julio's luck, he'll net about 23. Either way, he's the same excellent pitcher. But those two extremes would sure make a difference for your fantasy team, wouldn't they? So the best advice this correspondent can give those in the 13% percent who voted 50+ at MLB.com who may be planning on drafting K-Rod to anchor their bullpen is I recommend you start practicing screaming "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" right away.
FYI
The Angels open the spring season against the Bonds-less Giants on March 3rd in Tempe. The regular season begins at home against Chuck Norris and the Texas Rangers followed by a three-game set against the Royals. Don't breathe easy, though--the Angels play the Yanks, Twins, A's (twice) and Texas again (at Ameriquest Field in Arlington, where the Rangers were 51-30 last year) all in April.
Despite Published Reports…
…I can actually read. I realize some of you have sent me e-mails in the last month and I haven't exactly answered them yet. I apologize and will make a concerted attempt to answer those in the very near future. I can imagine you're waiting with bated breath (or with baited breath, for all those like BassCenter). It's almost time to gear up the machine that is the greatest sport of all and it's going to be a long, but enjoyable marathon (even with the word STEROIDS mentioned every 7.2 seconds), so enjoy your last few days off. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Saves and Whammies
We're fantasy baseball people, right? We love stats, right (most of us more than is healthy)? I think the folks at MLB.com have caught a bit of the fever, and it apparently gets really when contracted by those who basically have no idea what they're talking about. Take the survey on the official Halos homepage, for instance. Here's the question: How many saves will closer Francisco Rodriguez record in 2005? Your choices are: less than 35, 35-40, 41-45, 46-50, more than 50. I participated just to see the responses. Over 9000 people have voted in this thing. There are 9000 people (minus 1--me) who think they have a clue how many games K-Rod will save! You know what though--the onus really isn't theirs though. It's on the misguided folks who posed the question.
Let's put it like this--there's no way to know how many games he'll save. Predicting saves boldly is like screaming "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" on Press Your Luck with our good friend Peter Tomarken. Both parties call out, squint their eyes, hit the buzzer (okay, that's just on PYK), and then hope for the best. The reason this is foolish (although repeatedly shouting "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" sure is fun, try right now, wherever you are, you'll see) is not because saves can't possibly be predicted. It's because save OPPORTUNITIES can't possibly be predicted. Head Cheese Eric Karabell did a good column on this last year. Without benefit of those stats now, however, take a look at this--Keith Foulke, full-time closer of the World Champion Boston Red Sox had 39 save opps. Jason Isringhausen of the NL Champ Cardinals? 54.
I'm not done. How about two other closers on comparable teams in the middle? Jose Mesa of the Pirates racked up 48 save opps. Jorge Julio from the also 70-ish win Baltimore Orioles? A whopping 26. I could go on--I won't waste the time. With save opps, there are too many non-controllable factors (at least by the closer) to figure in. We all know the save is a corny stat anyway, when you really think about it. If you wanna give a guy a stat for finishing the game, call it a 'Finish' cause that's what he did. 'Save' and 'Finish' aren’t synonomous. That "middle reliever" who came in and got the opponent's left-handed masher in the 8th inning with a three-run lead with the bases loaded? He's the one that save the game. You got three groundouts with a three-run lead. That's a 'Finish'.
Anyway, to sum up, we should all ponder how many save opportunities Frankie will have this year, not saves. If you knew that, you could really get close on saves. A guy of K-Rod's caliber is gonna save around 90-92% percent of the "finishes" he's assigned. So if he's as "fortunate" as Mariano Rivera last year with 57 save opps, he'll probably reel in about 52. If he's draws Julio's luck, he'll net about 23. Either way, he's the same excellent pitcher. But those two extremes would sure make a difference for your fantasy team, wouldn't they? So the best advice this correspondent can give those in the 13% percent who voted 50+ at MLB.com who may be planning on drafting K-Rod to anchor their bullpen is I recommend you start practicing screaming "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" right away.
FYI
The Angels open the spring season against the Bonds-less Giants on March 3rd in Tempe. The regular season begins at home against Chuck Norris and the Texas Rangers followed by a three-game set against the Royals. Don't breathe easy, though--the Angels play the Yanks, Twins, A's (twice) and Texas again (at Ameriquest Field in Arlington, where the Rangers were 51-30 last year) all in April.
Despite Published Reports…
…I can actually read. I realize some of you have sent me e-mails in the last month and I haven't exactly answered them yet. I apologize and will make a concerted attempt to answer those in the very near future. I can imagine you're waiting with bated breath (or with baited breath, for all those like BassCenter). It's almost time to gear up the machine that is the greatest sport of all and it's going to be a long, but enjoyable marathon (even with the word STEROIDS mentioned every 7.2 seconds), so enjoy your last few days off. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
