Thursday, February 24, 2005
That's Right…Streeeeeeeeeetch!
The Halos completed their first team workout on Tuesday and the biggest news of the day was really that no one pulled anything doing hurdle stretches. The Angels camp, at least for now, seems as if it may be one of the quietest of Spring Training this season. Of course, with basically the entire lineup, rotation, and bullpen set, the only thing to talk about is the debate over the name change. I've already said my piece on that and for now, I'm done with that like Barry Bonds wants to be done with RoidGate. So is there any buzz at all at Angel camp? Well, you know when you see entire pieces completely on the subject of a player's mood, there's very little to talk about. The biggest question I would have is what does Bartolo Colon weigh and is it higher than Vlad's batting average?
Draft Guide is a Brewin'
Yes, I realize the last thing you need is another draft guide. It seems that just about everyone with a keyboard and a baseball cap has their own in today's market, but that's part of what I do here on my little page for ESPN and in my own little world at ITH (insidethehalo.blogspot.com). I realize that some of you like to draft the minute someone picks up a glove at Spring Training, so I'll be getting that out to you sooner rather than later, making updated changes as needed. If there's anything you need to know that I don't answer in the draft guide or something you'd like to see in it, let me know at insidethehalo@insightbb.com.
Robb Quinlan is a Big Q
Quinlan's .344/.401/.525 season before injuring his tearing an oblique muscle in August has been largely forgotten by most. So the question that should be on more fantasy player's minds is, "Can he do something like that again?" The answer, of course, is murky. Dallas McPherson looks prepped to be the Opening Day 3B and Quinlan may not even get the ABs to prove he can repeat last year's hot streak. Even worse, it was a small sample size and it's possible a guy like Q just got hot. What's interesting is that he's had his time in the minors to develop and he's at peak age to put up some solid numbers if he's ever going to do so. I'd keep an eye on Q during Spring Training--better safe than sorry. The pub around McPherson may overshadow any shot he has though.
The New Byrd
Last year in Atlanta, Paul Byrd received the popular Leo Mazzone Extreme Makeover that has resurrected so many broken down pitchers. For '05, Byrd has switched leagues and coasts and in the 5 hole, those looking for a steal are wondering if he can do the same in Anaheim, er, LA--whatever. Well, Byrd has a flyball tendency, but he came to the right place for that, as Angel Stadium will suppress that weakness somewhat. He has great control, but he'll have to keep his K/9 above 6 (6.1 is '04) to remain enough of a K threat to really make some noise. He's not had much success at all against lefties for the last several years, and he's at an age where stats like his start to head south, which from where he is, there's not much room on the ledge. High risk, but possible middling reward.
Post-President's Day Update for Kennedy
Adam is going to be with the Angels for Spring Training and he'll be resuming defensive drills very soon. The bad news for those planning to slide him in at 2B on their roster is that he'll likely not be available until late May at best. That date, at least for now, is still kind a dart throw and is certainly being left open for change. The good news is that Chone Figgins will have an everyday spot (hallelujah) and will probably produce better fantasy dollars than AK would anyway. The bad news is that Figgins is no longer a sleeper and getting your hands on him will be much harder than it was at this time last year.
Run, Bartolo, Run!
Have you seen the commercial where the guy weighs himself at 249, dons his headphones, takes off for a quick jaunt around the weight room, heads directly back to the scales, and is dismayed to find he still weighs 249? Well, I'm beginning to think that that guy has a better cardio plan that our man Bartolo Colon. From the "Picture is Worth A 1000 Words" Department, it appears as if BC did little to work on that trouble area around his waist that is beginning to take other parts of his body, like his new second chin. I'll be the first to tell you that Colon had a run of bad luck last season, but I don’t think Kamala of classic WWF fame would've made a good mound ace no matter what kind of hose he had. The Halo ace is dangerously close to needing to change his name to Blobolo.
Late Arrivals
Like several players living in the Carribean area, Kendry Morales and Juan Rivera have had trouble getting the passports/visas to gain entry to the US. They have yet to report to camp, but the good news is that the team expects both of them to be with the team by the weekend. Hopefully that will be the case and this Angel camp will continue quietly. After all, no news is good news, right? For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Draft Guide is a Brewin'
Yes, I realize the last thing you need is another draft guide. It seems that just about everyone with a keyboard and a baseball cap has their own in today's market, but that's part of what I do here on my little page for ESPN and in my own little world at ITH (insidethehalo.blogspot.com). I realize that some of you like to draft the minute someone picks up a glove at Spring Training, so I'll be getting that out to you sooner rather than later, making updated changes as needed. If there's anything you need to know that I don't answer in the draft guide or something you'd like to see in it, let me know at insidethehalo@insightbb.com.
Robb Quinlan is a Big Q
Quinlan's .344/.401/.525 season before injuring his tearing an oblique muscle in August has been largely forgotten by most. So the question that should be on more fantasy player's minds is, "Can he do something like that again?" The answer, of course, is murky. Dallas McPherson looks prepped to be the Opening Day 3B and Quinlan may not even get the ABs to prove he can repeat last year's hot streak. Even worse, it was a small sample size and it's possible a guy like Q just got hot. What's interesting is that he's had his time in the minors to develop and he's at peak age to put up some solid numbers if he's ever going to do so. I'd keep an eye on Q during Spring Training--better safe than sorry. The pub around McPherson may overshadow any shot he has though.
The New Byrd
Last year in Atlanta, Paul Byrd received the popular Leo Mazzone Extreme Makeover that has resurrected so many broken down pitchers. For '05, Byrd has switched leagues and coasts and in the 5 hole, those looking for a steal are wondering if he can do the same in Anaheim, er, LA--whatever. Well, Byrd has a flyball tendency, but he came to the right place for that, as Angel Stadium will suppress that weakness somewhat. He has great control, but he'll have to keep his K/9 above 6 (6.1 is '04) to remain enough of a K threat to really make some noise. He's not had much success at all against lefties for the last several years, and he's at an age where stats like his start to head south, which from where he is, there's not much room on the ledge. High risk, but possible middling reward.
Post-President's Day Update for Kennedy
Adam is going to be with the Angels for Spring Training and he'll be resuming defensive drills very soon. The bad news for those planning to slide him in at 2B on their roster is that he'll likely not be available until late May at best. That date, at least for now, is still kind a dart throw and is certainly being left open for change. The good news is that Chone Figgins will have an everyday spot (hallelujah) and will probably produce better fantasy dollars than AK would anyway. The bad news is that Figgins is no longer a sleeper and getting your hands on him will be much harder than it was at this time last year.
Run, Bartolo, Run!
Have you seen the commercial where the guy weighs himself at 249, dons his headphones, takes off for a quick jaunt around the weight room, heads directly back to the scales, and is dismayed to find he still weighs 249? Well, I'm beginning to think that that guy has a better cardio plan that our man Bartolo Colon. From the "Picture is Worth A 1000 Words" Department, it appears as if BC did little to work on that trouble area around his waist that is beginning to take other parts of his body, like his new second chin. I'll be the first to tell you that Colon had a run of bad luck last season, but I don’t think Kamala of classic WWF fame would've made a good mound ace no matter what kind of hose he had. The Halo ace is dangerously close to needing to change his name to Blobolo.
Late Arrivals
Like several players living in the Carribean area, Kendry Morales and Juan Rivera have had trouble getting the passports/visas to gain entry to the US. They have yet to report to camp, but the good news is that the team expects both of them to be with the team by the weekend. Hopefully that will be the case and this Angel camp will continue quietly. After all, no news is good news, right? For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Sunday, February 13, 2005
The Calm Before the Storm
Four days until we'll see guys like Jarrod Washburn, Kelvim Escobar, Paul Byrd, Jose Molina, K-Rod and our favorite heavy (cough) hitters (Bengie Molina), and, er, pitchers (like Bartolo Colon) arrive at Spring Training 2005. It's been a pretty slow news cycle (or three) for the Halos of late, at least concerning things on the field. Yes, the long bridal name-train of Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will still follow the Halos around for the foreseeable future. Now, it's up to the boys on the field to not be a bridesmaid. Trains look okay on brides. Bridesmaids? No.
Saves and Whammies
We're fantasy baseball people, right? We love stats, right (most of us more than is healthy)? I think the folks at MLB.com have caught a bit of the fever, and it apparently gets really when contracted by those who basically have no idea what they're talking about. Take the survey on the official Halos homepage, for instance. Here's the question: How many saves will closer Francisco Rodriguez record in 2005? Your choices are: less than 35, 35-40, 41-45, 46-50, more than 50. I participated just to see the responses. Over 9000 people have voted in this thing. There are 9000 people (minus 1--me) who think they have a clue how many games K-Rod will save! You know what though--the onus really isn't theirs though. It's on the misguided folks who posed the question.
Let's put it like this--there's no way to know how many games he'll save. Predicting saves boldly is like screaming "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" on Press Your Luck with our good friend Peter Tomarken. Both parties call out, squint their eyes, hit the buzzer (okay, that's just on PYK), and then hope for the best. The reason this is foolish (although repeatedly shouting "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" sure is fun, try right now, wherever you are, you'll see) is not because saves can't possibly be predicted. It's because save OPPORTUNITIES can't possibly be predicted. Head Cheese Eric Karabell did a good column on this last year. Without benefit of those stats now, however, take a look at this--Keith Foulke, full-time closer of the World Champion Boston Red Sox had 39 save opps. Jason Isringhausen of the NL Champ Cardinals? 54.
I'm not done. How about two other closers on comparable teams in the middle? Jose Mesa of the Pirates racked up 48 save opps. Jorge Julio from the also 70-ish win Baltimore Orioles? A whopping 26. I could go on--I won't waste the time. With save opps, there are too many non-controllable factors (at least by the closer) to figure in. We all know the save is a corny stat anyway, when you really think about it. If you wanna give a guy a stat for finishing the game, call it a 'Finish' cause that's what he did. 'Save' and 'Finish' aren’t synonomous. That "middle reliever" who came in and got the opponent's left-handed masher in the 8th inning with a three-run lead with the bases loaded? He's the one that save the game. You got three groundouts with a three-run lead. That's a 'Finish'.
Anyway, to sum up, we should all ponder how many save opportunities Frankie will have this year, not saves. If you knew that, you could really get close on saves. A guy of K-Rod's caliber is gonna save around 90-92% percent of the "finishes" he's assigned. So if he's as "fortunate" as Mariano Rivera last year with 57 save opps, he'll probably reel in about 52. If he's draws Julio's luck, he'll net about 23. Either way, he's the same excellent pitcher. But those two extremes would sure make a difference for your fantasy team, wouldn't they? So the best advice this correspondent can give those in the 13% percent who voted 50+ at MLB.com who may be planning on drafting K-Rod to anchor their bullpen is I recommend you start practicing screaming "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" right away.
FYI
The Angels open the spring season against the Bonds-less Giants on March 3rd in Tempe. The regular season begins at home against Chuck Norris and the Texas Rangers followed by a three-game set against the Royals. Don't breathe easy, though--the Angels play the Yanks, Twins, A's (twice) and Texas again (at Ameriquest Field in Arlington, where the Rangers were 51-30 last year) all in April.
Despite Published Reports…
…I can actually read. I realize some of you have sent me e-mails in the last month and I haven't exactly answered them yet. I apologize and will make a concerted attempt to answer those in the very near future. I can imagine you're waiting with bated breath (or with baited breath, for all those like BassCenter). It's almost time to gear up the machine that is the greatest sport of all and it's going to be a long, but enjoyable marathon (even with the word STEROIDS mentioned every 7.2 seconds), so enjoy your last few days off. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
Saves and Whammies
We're fantasy baseball people, right? We love stats, right (most of us more than is healthy)? I think the folks at MLB.com have caught a bit of the fever, and it apparently gets really when contracted by those who basically have no idea what they're talking about. Take the survey on the official Halos homepage, for instance. Here's the question: How many saves will closer Francisco Rodriguez record in 2005? Your choices are: less than 35, 35-40, 41-45, 46-50, more than 50. I participated just to see the responses. Over 9000 people have voted in this thing. There are 9000 people (minus 1--me) who think they have a clue how many games K-Rod will save! You know what though--the onus really isn't theirs though. It's on the misguided folks who posed the question.
Let's put it like this--there's no way to know how many games he'll save. Predicting saves boldly is like screaming "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" on Press Your Luck with our good friend Peter Tomarken. Both parties call out, squint their eyes, hit the buzzer (okay, that's just on PYK), and then hope for the best. The reason this is foolish (although repeatedly shouting "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" sure is fun, try right now, wherever you are, you'll see) is not because saves can't possibly be predicted. It's because save OPPORTUNITIES can't possibly be predicted. Head Cheese Eric Karabell did a good column on this last year. Without benefit of those stats now, however, take a look at this--Keith Foulke, full-time closer of the World Champion Boston Red Sox had 39 save opps. Jason Isringhausen of the NL Champ Cardinals? 54.
I'm not done. How about two other closers on comparable teams in the middle? Jose Mesa of the Pirates racked up 48 save opps. Jorge Julio from the also 70-ish win Baltimore Orioles? A whopping 26. I could go on--I won't waste the time. With save opps, there are too many non-controllable factors (at least by the closer) to figure in. We all know the save is a corny stat anyway, when you really think about it. If you wanna give a guy a stat for finishing the game, call it a 'Finish' cause that's what he did. 'Save' and 'Finish' aren’t synonomous. That "middle reliever" who came in and got the opponent's left-handed masher in the 8th inning with a three-run lead with the bases loaded? He's the one that save the game. You got three groundouts with a three-run lead. That's a 'Finish'.
Anyway, to sum up, we should all ponder how many save opportunities Frankie will have this year, not saves. If you knew that, you could really get close on saves. A guy of K-Rod's caliber is gonna save around 90-92% percent of the "finishes" he's assigned. So if he's as "fortunate" as Mariano Rivera last year with 57 save opps, he'll probably reel in about 52. If he's draws Julio's luck, he'll net about 23. Either way, he's the same excellent pitcher. But those two extremes would sure make a difference for your fantasy team, wouldn't they? So the best advice this correspondent can give those in the 13% percent who voted 50+ at MLB.com who may be planning on drafting K-Rod to anchor their bullpen is I recommend you start practicing screaming "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" right away.
FYI
The Angels open the spring season against the Bonds-less Giants on March 3rd in Tempe. The regular season begins at home against Chuck Norris and the Texas Rangers followed by a three-game set against the Royals. Don't breathe easy, though--the Angels play the Yanks, Twins, A's (twice) and Texas again (at Ameriquest Field in Arlington, where the Rangers were 51-30 last year) all in April.
Despite Published Reports…
…I can actually read. I realize some of you have sent me e-mails in the last month and I haven't exactly answered them yet. I apologize and will make a concerted attempt to answer those in the very near future. I can imagine you're waiting with bated breath (or with baited breath, for all those like BassCenter). It's almost time to gear up the machine that is the greatest sport of all and it's going to be a long, but enjoyable marathon (even with the word STEROIDS mentioned every 7.2 seconds), so enjoy your last few days off. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.
