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Wednesday, June 22, 2005

Jose Guillen is a Child 

This is not a bitter homer-type of rant. I've cheered for Jose Guillen for a while now. I shouted to the trees that the Reds should've traded Griffey, Kearns, or even Dunn before letting Guillien go to Oakland in 2003. And I've enjoyed seeing Guillen become an excellent player--but he's never matured as a person. He's the same whiny Guillen that came into the league, that asked for a trade incessantly in Cincinnati, and the same one that ran his mouth about Scioscia when an adult would've kept it shut. I get it that he doesn't like Mike. I'm fine with that. But we don’t need to hear his grudge tantrums. In January, Guillen said the only time he and a manager would "have a problem" is when he wasn't in the lineup. My problem with Guillen is when he opens his mouth.

Who's Your Vladdy?

Since returning from the DL, Vlad is hitting .439 with 4 HR and 12 RBI in 10 games. If only he'd get hurt more often, right? What makes it better is that he's actually walked more times that he's whiffed, which isn't typical of West Coast Vlad. This is easily the best he's looked all year and another season of .330+ with close to 40 HR is surely in store. I realize he's a little behind in the jack jaunt, but a healthy half-season will net him about 20 bombs, and we're still 3 weeks away from the All-Star Break. Vlad is one of those guys who can single-handedly keep a fantasy team afloat--which means he's incredibly hard to acquire. That doesn't mean I'd stop trying though. Outside of maybe Bobby Abreu, there still isn't anyone in the OF who will post what Vlad does the rest of '05.

Fantasy Crime in the First Degree

It really is a shame that Darin Erstad is a 1B. He's actually having a very productive year. He's tied for the team lead in runs, hits, and walks, while leading the team in doubles. The problem (and, in fantasy, there always seems to be a problem with Erstad) is that he plays first. With the depth in power at that position (think Lee, Pujols, Sexson, Teixeira, Konerko, and Ortiz) an owner can't afford to have a guy with 3 HR and SLG of .401. That's just awful for a power position. Now, say, you have A-Rod, Soriano, AND Tejada, then your infield can afford a guy at 1B who won't hit 10 HR. Otherwise, Erstad remains a player, that while productive, could put your roster at a disadvantage in the HR and RBI categories because of where he plays (hitting 1st or 2nd won't net 1B-like RBI).

Mending Wings: Foiled Elbows

Orlando Cabrera is having elbow problems. In his own words, OC told the team's official site, "I couldn't even move my arm." While it's still early in the diagnosis, that's not good. His .659 OPS will be sorely missed as he's day-to-day. Macier Izturis will fill the void (whose OPS is .575). Kelvim Escobar continues to rehab his elbow. His 3rd DL stint this year means that a 4th is more likely than not. The label of "ticking time bomb" for Escobar stands. When he has healthy moments, he's going to be outstanding, evidenced by his 3.54 ERA and 10.2 K/9. The problem, though, is that his injury makes him a very high-risk member of your roster. Still, if you have the luxury to hang onto him, you'd be remiss to let him go until he's officially out for the year.

June Swoons

Dallas McPherson hit 3 HRs in 3 days in late May and everyone thought, "Oh, boy. Here he comes." Ownership and interest soared--while I warned that indeed he has power, but his free-swinging (and I don't mean "life of the party") style at the plate would cause him to have further slumps like the one he had to start the year (11-58, .190). So far in June, he's hitting .224 with 2 BB and 20 Ks. All-or-nothing. Steve Finley also had a super May (.340, 18 RBI), but June's been anything but (.239, .656 OPS). Finley, at least for the immediate future, has a much better chance of hitting his way into an extended hot streak--he's making a better contact and still has a little speed to help him. Look for SF to rebound and DM to continue with occasional bursts of power.

Another Brick in the Wall

Just like any rookie, Ervin Santana is going to show he needs lessons in consistency. His previous 2-start stint while Escobar was out produced on good start and one terrible one. This time around it's the same. In a strange way, he's somewhat like Escobar now, only Escobar won't hurt the bottom line in the stat books--he just won't be healthy enough to pitch. That makes Santana, like all rookies, a bigger risk even though he's healthy because you never know if he's going to implode and give up 7 ER in 2.2 IP or fan 7 in 6 IP for the win. It sounds weird, but you might actually get a taker in a Santana/Escobar deal, since Ervin is highly touted and Kelvim isn't playing. Acquire Santana and give it a shot--there are plenty of years in the future to own Santana--2005 isn't one of them.

Caution Ahead

This stretch for the Halos is extremely important--7 games against 2nd place Chuck Norris and the Boys and the always tough Twins, balanced by prime opportunities against the struggling Dodgers, Royals, and Mariners. From now until the Break, the Angels will have to play well and they know it. Might be a good time to watch your Angels players shine in the clutch. With Paul Byrd pitching much better lately, it gives the Angels a much-needed lift with Escobar out. I know his K/9 is really too low for a competitive owner to be happy about acquiring him, but he's walked 2 batters in his last 5 starts (35 IP). That’s solid. Garret Anderson is a pure hitter. Only 10 BBs, little power, and somehow he's hitting .314. And on pace for 115 RBI. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Monday, June 13, 2005

Sliding Doors 

Have you seen the Gwyneth Paltrow movie where she's rushing to make the train and the moment splits and you spend most of the movie seeing how her life would've been different depending on whether or not she got on the train in time? Well, the Angels are at that moment, because that's how integral Kelvim Escobar is to their success. He's on the DL again with elbow soreness due to a bone spur that can break off at any time and turn into bone chips which would mean 6-8 weeks of down time. After his start on Wednesday where he left early with elbow soreness, he really sounded like he was ready to take the surgery route. Mike Scioscia seems to think they can patch and re-patch until the offseason. What happens from here with just Escobar could literally mean the division. We'll see.

Mending Wings: The Impaler

Talk about quickly shaking off the rust. Vlad's 4 for his first 9 back off the DL. I'd say it's safe to say he's back. The only thing that is a worry after a shoulder injury is power. All of those hits so far are singles, so keep an eye on that. He'll probably be okay though. Scioscia said that his BP swings look very normal--meaning he's hitting the ball really, really far and really, really hard. All signs point to the Halos recalling Ervin Santana to replace Escobar in the interim. He comes with the "going-to-be-really-good-but-remember-he's-only-a-rookie" disclaimer. If Escobar is out for an extended period of time, don't be surprised to see the Angels look for someone not on the roster to replace him.

Around the Rotation

With Escobar out and the Texas pushing the Angels for first in the AL West, the performance of the rest of the rotation is that even more important. Don't look for too many gems from Jarrod Washburn though. He's fanned only 14 batters in his last 5 starts (32 IP), which is bad enough before you consider that he's walked 13 in that same stretch. Yeah, the ERA's 3.09 in that span, but that won't last. Find a buyer now if you've got him. As I've said many times before, Bartolo Colon is a workhorse. He's got quite the load right now. He's shouldering it very well, too. In his last 4 starts, he's 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA, 26 Ks and only 1 BB. That's fantastic. John Lackey was a wobbly Sunday (6 BB), but after a 3.02 ERA in May and a good start in June, he's a solid pickup in mixed leagues.

At the Bat Rack

Garret Anderson is hitting .421 in June with only 1 K in 38 AB. That's what's called an absolute groove. Dallas McPherson is also hitting well since June 1st (.303, 1 HR, 6 RBI). He's fanned 10 times though, so don't expect that average to continue. Hope you picked up Chone Figgins during his .220 May. Some owners were, er, misguided enough to waive him (I got him as a FA and he's proceeded to hit .292 with 15 RBI and 9 SB on my roster). He's got a real shot at 50 SB and he'll be hard to acquire now. Adam Kennedy is off to a great June too (.467, 8 R). He'd be a good grab in mixed leagues while he's hot or maybe as trade bait. The Halos have attempted 79 SB in '05--only Tampa Bay and the Chicago White Sox have attempted more. Even Bengie Molina tried 2 this week!

More Than Middle Relief

Is there a good reason why only 5% of mixed league owners have rostered Brendan Donnelly? Yes, the ERA is 4.34, but you take away 2 bad outings in June and it's 2.57. He's vultured 4 wins already. He's fanned 22 in 29 IP and only walked 7. He's got as many (or more) wins as Carl Pavano, Roger Clemens, Mark Prior, and Jason Schmidt. Batters are only hitting .227 off him this season. Will he revolutionize your roster? Probably not--his HRs up a little this year (already surrendered 5 after giving up 5 all last year) and his Ks are down from the past 3 seasons, but overall the numbers are still there and there's little doubt he'd be easy to acquire for minimal, if any, value. It's pitchers like Donnelly who can make a difference in a good season and a great one.

O. Crap

Is it finally time to say something's really wrong with Orlando Cabrera? When a player signs for 32 mil over 4 years and then proceeds to hit .239 through mid-June, questions have to be asked. And the answer is yeah. Okay, he's had some bad luck (26% hit rate), but his hit rate from '02-'04 averages to 29%, which would only give him a .261 average. That's probably not what the Halos paid for in terms of offense. OC is locking everything up at short, but that doesn't help fantasy owners a bit. What's really interesting (especially on a team managed by Scioscia) is that he's not running--only 4 SB attempts this year (made all 4). Dallas McPherson has tried 4 times in 17 less games with less speed. Bottom line is you shouldn't expect OC's average to jump much, but he'll hit 12-15 HR.

Odds and Ends

Steve Finley now leads the team in HRs with 8. His G/F ratio is down, but I still wouldn't expect much more than 20 for the year, certainly nothing near last year's 36. That .233 average of his will rise though. Give it some time. Joel Peralta and Jake Woods have a combined 28 K and 3 BB--not to mention a 2.25 ERA. Neither are owned in more than 60% of AL leagues so if you need a little pitching, you could certainly do much worse. They replace my other recommendation, Kevin Gregg, who was sent down after a horrible start to this year. The Halos are 9th in total bases in the AL but 5th in runs scored. That kind of run manufacturing and will make them a good postseason team--if they can only get there. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Friday, June 03, 2005

The Black Cat Under the Ladder 

It's a good thing I'm not superstitious, because I leave the country and K-Rod hits the DL, Vlad goes down next, and then the Angels fall to 2nd place. Of course, they did go 8-5 in that stretch (the real problem was that Texas didn't lose the entire duration of my honeymoon!). Still, the Halos are back in a tie for tops in the AL West (you're welcome, er, wait--I'm not superstitious). K-Rod is back as well, and 2 other young Angels (1 you've heard of, the other you haven't) could also be about ready to be a part of your fantasy roster. Plus, we've got a last-minute signing that could alter the franchise, an offense that has scored 7 or more runs in each of its last 4 wins, and e-mail coming out my ears! Sheesh. That's a lot to cover. Let's take it Around the Halo.

Mending Wings: Returns, Returns

We start here, because some of the biggest names on the team reside here. Vlad is running and throwing, but won't swing until next week and still isn't catching toss either. With interleague play coming up in the NL parks, it could be harder to get him in the game with no DH. Scioscia, on the team website, wouldn't rule out a return before the end of the road trip, but a June 13 date looks like a possible target. He's progressing, so be patient. K-Rod is back and while he probably won't go 3 days in a row for a bit (or maybe even back-to-back in some instances), he's pitching pain free and that's a good sign that he'll be 100% as soon as he shakes off the rust. [Insert relaxed smile here.] Scot Shields, even going back to just set up duty, is still very valuable.

I've received a bit of mail concerning the reliability of Escobar's apparent good health and while the fact that he has to have surgery eventually on that elbow (just hopefully not until after the season) makes him a ticking time bomb, it's hard to argue with his first outing back from the DL (5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 2 BB). He'll probably go a little further Friday at Boston. He's too good for you to get full value right now and probably worth riding until he breaks anyway (which hopefully won't happen). Keep an eye on him and pray. Also, Macier Izturis looks to begin his AAA rehab as early as Monday with Salt Lake. He's strictly an extreme fringe player for now, but those in deep leagues can take note. Finally, Curtis Pride's wrist injury could be tendonitis. More to follow.

Make It Mac Tonight

Do you remember that silly moon-headed pianist? Well, anyway, Dallas McPherson has gone off in the past week with 4 HR, 9 RBI, and a .370 AVG. D-Mac started slow and up until the last 7 games there were no signs of him warming up much at all. Does this recent stretch signal the beginning of something special? To a degree. Make no mistake--even though he's made contact in 21 of his 27 ABs the last week, he's still walked only 10 times to 37 whiffs, so there won't be many more .370 weeks. Is the power there? Yes. It was waiting to explode. Now, striking out so much will lend to longer slumps for him, but if you're looking for a guy who can club the ball, D-Mac who's still widely available in mixed leagues at a tough position. Take a look in deeper (and keeper) leagues.

Joel Peralta

Who? JP came up a couple of weeks ago when K-Rod hit the DL. Surprisingly, he wasn't sent down to make room for Frankie's return (Chris Bootcheck got that dubious honor). Joel Peralta is a guy who's only gotten looks in 1.9% of AL leagues, but he could really be a help to your fantasy team. No, he doesn't have any Major League experience, but he's 29 and seasoned in the minors. He's got excellent numbers the last 2 years at AA Arkansas and AAA Salt Lake. He keeps the ball in the park and he strikes out plenty of guys with good control. I don't know how long he'll remain with the Halos (it could be a while), but he'd be a very good speculative pickup for a team looking to pick up some Ks with the potential to help the ERA and WHIP. Very easy to get--even in deep leagues.

The 11th Hour, the 59th Minute

In a deal that no one thought would happen, the Angels signed college standout pitcher Jered Weaver to a deal in the final hours of the last day before he was to become eligible for the '05 Draft. The Halos took him 12th overall last year but Scott Boras did his usual job of gumming up the works (and to be fair, that is his job). In the LA Times, Boras did his best to make Weaver sound like a hometown guy who took a discount and was going to try and get by on 4 million at 22 years old. Yeah, that’ll be rough. Look, Weaver's probably going to be great--and he did the right thing. He put himself in a position to start playing baseball now--which is exactly what he should be doing. Despite the posturing Boras did, he lost this negotiation. Hats off to Bill Stoneman on an excellent job.

Uh, Excuse Me, Axl?

Thank you again for the well wishes concerning my wedding. Some of you had some very kind and thoughtful things to say (who said fantasy baseball geeks are all statistics and no emotion?). Amongst those e-mails with advice ranging from "always cherish your wife and your time together" to "get married in the offseason, dork" were plenty of actual fantasy questions, of which I will try to answer as quickly as I can. I hope you'll be patient as I catch up--there were a lot of them. My computer actually stopped taking e-mails about halfway through my absence and began piling your queries in my desk chair. Axl, Slash, and I appreciate your patience. Huge 7-game stretch coming up--2 division leaders (BOS, ATL). Should be a lot of fun. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.