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Wednesday, May 18, 2005

Pitching A Fit 

It's a good thing the Angels are only hitting .242 as a team. It's a good thing their .294 OBP (lowest in the AL) has netted them just 159 runs, more than only Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland (who have 3 of the 5 worst records in the AL). Those are good things--otherwise, we might gloss over just how good this Halo pitching staff has been. There's a 3.59 ERA, only beaten by the White Sox, who have the best record in baseball. Only the White Sox and Twins have allowed fewer runs. Only 1 team has a better K/9 (Baltimore). Only 2 teams have better K/BB (Minnesota and Cleveland). Opponents are hitting .218 off of the bullpen (again, only MIN and CLE are better). This is a good year (like several before now) to own a number of Angel pitchers.

K-Rod and Scot Shields are great targets (we've discussed them), although they'll be tough to deal for. Brendan Donnelly is also very solid, though his K/9 is down to date in '05. Did somebody say Jake Woods? How does 13 Ks against 2 BBs grab you? Don't forget about the solid rotation. Bartolo Colon. John Lackey is very close to putting it together. Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd have fared pretty well also, but their walks will probably have to continue to stay miniscule for them to produce as they have. There are issues with Kelvim Escobar's elbow that could prove to be disastrous for his '05 campaign (more on that later), but even with those problems, a new name emerges.

The New Santana

Ervin Santana, to my knowledge, is not related to Johan Santana, but his talent could prove to be akin to that of 2004's AL Cy Young Award winner. Before you leap out of your seat and break your mouse clicking for the free agent page, remember that Johan debuted in the majors in 2000 but only found success in June of 2002. It will take some time for Ervin to settle in (evidenced by Tuesday's 4 IP, 6 ER performance). He definitely has the talent, but there's no guarantee he'll get to compete long at the ML level. His highest experience to date is at AA, so that should temper expectations as well. Baseball HQ has Santana as the top pitching prospect in the Angel system and his early numbers certainly bear that out, but he's still just 22 with no ML experience. One day, though…

OC Hates the OC

I really don't know Orlando Cabrera's opinion of the TV show, but he definitely doesn't like Angel Stadium. His .203 AVG and .605 OPS (!) tell me that without having to ask. To his credit, he's had terrible luck at home (23% hit rate). You combine that with a 92% contact rate at home and that means before long, the hits will begin to fall--possibly in bunches. Even away from home, OC is due for an upswing in, well, just about everything. He's putting the ball in play 90% of the time and despite all the bad luck, he's not pressing at the plate (11 BB vs. 13 K). He's not tearing the cover off the ball, but he's not struggling to square up either. Everything points to Cabrera turning it around soon, and now would be an excellent time take advantage of an impatient owner's worries.

Chone Gone to Lunch

Here's another guy who's really struggling right now, but there is a little more cause for concern with Figgins. Most of his numbers at least resemble his success in the past, but Figgins has always made at least average contact. This year so far he's only put wood on the ball in 79% of his ABs. That's his 1st time below the 80% mark and it represents the 3rd consecutive year his contact percentage has fallen if his performance trend continues. With his role on the team, he's got to start putting the bat on the ball a little more. He's working the count (4.09 P/PA), which accounts for a mediocre BB%, but he's got to do it with his plate patience when he's 0 for his last 20 as he is now. The SBs will continue, but it's hard to see a big total if his .293 OBP doesn't improve greatly.

Mending Wings: Big Names, Big Worries?

I mentioned last time that Kelvim Escobar could be out a while. He's on the 15-day DL due to a bone spur in his elbow. If it gets worse, could lead to bone chips, which would require surgery (one he's had once before) and cost him 6-8 weeks. The only thing that can stop Escobar is injury and for now it will. The season isn't lost yet, but his 2nd stint on the DL raises the risk of keeping him significantly. With only 4 starts (regardless of how good they were), his trade value is minimal. If you can afford to hold him, you should. Finley has been out with a tight groin. He played Tuesday (1-5, RBI). He'll probably be okay with the rest he's had. K-Rod is out until likely the weekend with a forearm strain. Scioscia & Co. sound positive, but this is definitely something to watch.

Wedding Transactions

I want to take a minute and thank all of you who sent a note of well wishes for my upcoming wedding. I really appreciate it. Unfortunately, there's no one to call up to fill the void in my absence, but this will only be a 15-day stint on the WL. I'll be back 100% (and probably with a much better tan) after Memorial Day weekend, ready to take it through the rest of the season. You can still e-mail at ith@insightbb.com although I won't be able to respond until I return. I appreciate your patience. Enjoy the Angels while I'm away and rest assured that even though I won't following them around the diamond in the coming days, I will be dancing with one around an island in the Caribbean. I said this when we were engaged--God must really love Halo fans. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Friday, May 13, 2005

Meet Hal 

Hal is a .240 hitter. He walks in about 7% of his ABs, strikes out more than he should, which means his BB/K is about 0.43. That's not hot--at all. Being one of those sub-.700 OPS guys, you wouldn't expect Hal to hang around long at the major league level--or at least, if he does, it would be on a team with minimal success and the ability to go nowhere near the postseason. You might ask why Hal (and his offensive ineptitude) would be a topic of discussion in this particular space. Well, it's because Hal is from southern California--in particularly Anaheim. And on any given night so far in 2005, Hal hits 1-9 in your Los Angeles Angels lineup. Hal has high expectations, but he's also has a really big problem--he has no O. Neither do the Halos. Kitschy illustration? Yes. But true.

I hear you saying 'yeah, yeah, they'll come around. The hits'll start falling.' Well--they are. The Angels, as a team, have a 29% hit rate, which is pretty close to normal. Fine, you say, they just need to hit in the clutch. Well, they're kinda doing that too. They're in the middle of the pack with runners in scoring position. With RISP & 2 out, they're 3rd in the AL. Clutch hitting is all they can do--with the bases empty, the Hal_s are .232. This past 6-game homestand, they scored 14 runs and hit .189. That's trouble, even if Detroit is pitching well and Cleveland has a lot of good arms. Scioscia likes aggressive hitters. The team site quotes hitting coach Mickey Hatcher saying the Angels are being too passive at the plate. With a league-low .294 OBP, a few BBs couldn't hurt.

The Shield of Protection

Maybe one of the reasons the Angels can hit the way they have and still be atop the AL West is pitching performances like Scot Shields'. This guy for real. K-Rod gets the pub--he's the closer, they usually do. But Shields has thrown 270 IP mostly out of the pen in the last 2+ seasons. His K/9 is going up (11.44), he holds opponents to a .174 AVG, he's already picked up 3 wins, 7 holds, and oh, yeah, 25 K in 19.2 IP. This guy is like State Farm, All-State, and Geico all rolled into one--he's so good, Scot Shields may even save you money on your insurance. This is a guy you should own. He's a difference-making middle reliever, but it could be hard to get him. Make a push though. His BB/9 is a little high now, but history says it will drop. Shields is one of MLB's best relievers.

Completely Off-Topic Part 1

I'd like to play Alanis Morissette here for a moment and point out something that I really do think is a little ironic. The NFL is considering, among other places, Anaheim as a home for a relocated or expansion team. However, the Anaheim city council says that land is worth much more to the city as a high-density housing development (and they're right). According to the LA Times, though, the only way Anaheim can build that kind of project across from Angel Stadium is to clear it with--that's right, Angel owner Arte Moreno. Now, it's much, much more complicated than that, but it's interesting to note that they each have something the other wants. Two council members, though, were quoted as saying that a trade would not be an option for the city. And isn't is ironic…

Mending Wings: Potentially Bad, Bad News

Bengie Molina was activated from the DL. He's been out and he'll probably be handled cautiously, but remember how well he hit before he got hurt. Steve Finley left Wednesday's game with a tight left groin. According to the team website, he'll be fine and was just being extra cautious. The bad news (potentially the worst of '05) is that Kelvim Escobar's early exit after a 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 K performance could be his last for a while. His right elbow has pain--pain in a 'I had surgery for bone chips in '97 and it feels the same' kinda way. That's terrible news if it's true. That would put him out 6-8 weeks and put the AL West back into play. The OC Register says it's different from his the injury that kept him from starting the year on time, but more bone chips could be even worse.

Completely Off-Topic Part 2

I'm not a communist and I just want to say that anywhere there is a market for what you're selling, then bully for you if you make a boatload of scratch. However, in a world where marketing and advertising is king, are we at least (the very least) approaching the line at which it's just too far? Have we blown by it completely? I was listening to the Yankee radio broadcast recently (for Yankee fans, this is probably old news), and Yankee broadcaster John Sterling was forced to read the following [paraphrased]: "That run Tony Womack just scored was brought to you by So-And-So and Such-And-Such." We're sponsoring runs now? The Reds have "Great American Insurance runs" but those are for charity. This was a commercial. Does UPS start sponsoring every Unit fastball?

Finding the Schwa in the O

So, the Angels, at least for now, can't hit. What's the perfect cure? A 9-game road trip to 3 pitching parks. If that doesn't work, the next logical option is to let them swing with broomsticks. Or a conductor's baton. The final remedy, if all else fails, would be to add blindfolds. Steve Finley is 6-18 the past week. His .198 total average might still swing a favorable trade. I know Orlando Cabrera is hitting just .053 better than your grandmother right now, but he's only fanned once in that span and the hits will start to find the holes. That's it for now, but I would like to mention that the letter O in the word 'mention' earlier in this sentence is sponsored by Schwa, who reminds you, "When you need a soft vowel--think Schwa". For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Friday, May 06, 2005

The Road Didn't Hit Back 

Yes, the Yankees are tanking and Seattle has been anything but impressive for the first month of the season, but the Angels pitched their way to a 6-3 road trip that included two teams many thought of as World Series contenders this spring and the other was a vogue pick for Most Improved Team. What's encouraging (and discouraging) is that the Angels didn't score more than 5 runs in a game the entire trip. The bullpen is just (smile) fan-tastic, and it looks like Anderson and Finley are beginning to show a little more power to compliment Vlad. After A-Rod's Manwich-sized performance against Colon on 4/26, the starters posted a 1.96 ERA the rest of the trip. We'll go Around the Rotation in a bit, but first let's looks and Mending Wings and the return of the 2002 ALCS MVP.

Adam Kennedy

Well, he's back. I'm not sure how many marginal fantasy owners even knew he was gone, but now he's back. And Figgins owners are worried--and maybe they should be. Showing you how much I know, I mentioned earlier that AK wouldn't be the everyday 2B upon his return, but lo and behold, he's started his first 3 games back and Scioscia says "Adam is going to play second base", according to the team's website. He also indicated that Figgins will play regularly--and he only sat 1 of the 3 games, so it appears that DaVanon's PT will suffer the most. Looks like AL owners will have to look elsewhere. Kennedy looks healthy so far despite only being 2-12. He's swiped a bag already but fanned 3 times. Remember he's a career .277 hitter and that's probably a high end.

Mending Wings: Bench is Bunked

Lou Merloni's ankle injury has him out for probably the rest of '05 and greatly disappointed 0.9% of AL owners. The LA Daily News still has Macier Izturis about 3 weeks out and Josh Paul got his thumb whacked by a Wilson Valdez throw trying to break up a double play. Sure, these are marginal players (at best), but it means top catching prospect Jeff Mathis could get the call (though he's battling a thigh bruise). It also means that Figgins owners have less to worry about in regard to Scioscia trying to get the warmers some PT--he'll be leaning heavily on the regulars for the immediate future. Bengie Molina should be back next week, as the Press Enterprise reports that his recovery is past the "embryonic stage" (I think the intrepid reporter was trying to impress his editor).

Around the Rotation

Bartolo Colon's ankle should be okay after twisting it jumping for a chopper in his last start. Eye it, but he's probably 100%. Jarrod Washburn experienced his first back spasms of the season the day after his start on Monday, says the LA Times. Watch him too, but again, he's most likely OK. John Lackey looked solid against Seattle Tuesday. I'd say if he keeps the walks down like that, you'll see him start to put it together. His overall ERA is 4.73, but it's 1.59 in his last 3 starts. He's still cake to get in mixed leagues and even only 96% in AL leagues. If you're an AL owner looking for pitching, you should own him. Kelvim Escobar has 14 K in 13 IP--do the math. He's owned, but it would still be relatively easy to snatch him for a bigger "name" (think Mike Mussina).

Angels Are Flying

This really isn't a surprise, but the Halos lead the AL in stolen bases and stolen base attempts. Mike Scioscia has averaged 172 SB attempts a season over his first 5 years with the skipper's cap. Between that and having weapons like Figgins, Erstad, DaVanon, and even Vlad and Finley, you can be sure that his 35 attempts thus far will be followed by a whole lot more. Even slugger Dallas McPherson has attempted to swipe a bag three times. Of course, that does mean that the Angels may run themselves out of a few runs--as they did this past week getting 3 outs on the basepaths in one game--but they'll also manufacture some extra runs that a more passive style wouldn't allow. Remember that when considering acquiring a Halo hitter with marginal or good speed.

Fun With the Abacus

Much has been made (myself included) that this Angel team, just like 2004, is lacking in home run power. It appears that's misleading. The Halos don't fall in the bottom of the AL as far as AB/HR is concerned. They're 8th. That's not bad. It's not like they're just hitting singles either. Only TEX, BOS, and BAL (all very good lineups) have more extra base hits. They also avoid the rally killer. Only KC has hit into fewer double plays--and that's mostly because they don't get many baserunners on to double off in the first place. The Halos have only had 9 ABs in '05 with the bases juiced. They're 2-9--both hits singles. Finally, here's more proof that Dallas McPherson needs time to adjust to the major league level, especially mentally. From the 7th inning on, he's 0-13 with 8 Ks.

On Deck

I am very interested to see these Detroit Tigers close up. Angels fans will get the chance in a 3 game series beginning Friday night. They'll also see Tiger ace Jeremy Bonderman. He's solid and he'll square off against Colon. Both pitchers are 4-2 and, boy, should that Saturday night matchup at the Big A be outstanding. No reason to sit anyone in particular, and AL owners should know that there's a good change Juan Rivera will see some time this weekend. The bad news is that with Bonderman and Mike Maroth with Detroit and C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee of Cleveland, the Halos will see some pitchers that either are pitching well or could turn it around at any start. After that strong road trip, though, the home field should give them a big lift. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.