Wednesday, February 18, 2004
Battery Preview
New E-mail
First things first. I have changed my address. You need me--exposflb@insightbb.com and you got me. I'll answer what I can as soon as I can. Also, I promised you detailed draft info. I didn't have room for it on here, but it's listed on my archive site at exposflb.blog-city.com. Look for "Draft Quick Hits". Now, on with the show...
Arms Out--Big Circles!
The final hurrah of the Montreal version of the Expos begins in 46 days. So that means we've gotta get our arms warmed up, right? Let's take a look at the 'Spos rotation. Coming in to camp Numero Uno, is Livan Hernandez. If you've read the Quick Hits, you know I'm high on him. The only Expo pitcher to win 20 games in a season with Montreal was Ross Grimsley in 1978 (Bartolo Colon won 20 in 2002 but won his first ten with the Cleveland Indians). I think this last year Montreal might take the tally to two. Hernandez can do it. It'll take health, work, and luck, but Livan had a 2.42 ERA in the second half last year after changing his mechanics (9-4, 1.05 WHIP, 115 K in 130 IP). He brings that game back, it could really happen. Remember, he's still just 29.
Next up, Tony Armas Jr. could also be a big sleeper if he's healthy. No one's taking him in ESPN drafts right now and that's probably smart. But watch the spring stats. If he's pitching okay, remember him before Opening Day. He only pitched 31 innings last year, which is a small sample to draw from, but he looked good. The stats are there. The only thing that worries me about those stats that was out of character with his past was the low BB total. If he's showing control early--and he's healthy--get him. You'll look smart and all your opponents will grind their teeth as your foresight.
Tomo Ohka is a middle-of-the-road third man. He'll be around 10 wins probably, with a 4.00 ERA or so. He's walking less, but he's whiffing less too. I don't think he'll be able to out-Moyer the NL East, but I could be wrong. Zach Day is an enigma. He's a young pitcher who shows bright spots, but can't really string together more than a month's good work. He's adequate, but the bullpen could end up with a lot of work on his starts. The odds on favorite for the five hole would be Claudio Vargas. He's still young and in the long run will probably be better than Day and Ohka. But now? If he can keep the ball in the ballpark, you might see some improvement this year. Otherwise, expect more bumps in the road for this youngin.
Endgame
There is some debate as to who is the Expos closer. Some say Cordero. Some say Biddle. You say po-tay-to, I say it's Biddle. Sure, Cordero finished the season as the closer and looked good (1 Sv, 1.64 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 11 K in 12 IP), and Biddle looked like...I don't know, Rocky the Squirrel? But Biddle did save 34 games last year, and if he is solid in the spring, Robinson I think may go--or at least start--with Biddle. Cordero was the Expos first round pick LAST YEAR. He's still a kiddie (just 22 by Opening Day) and got plenty of time to take this role and I'm sure he eventually will. But this year? Don't consider it a lock.
Behind the Plate
Well, the Expos have one catcher. That's right. One. Brian Schneider. That's it. So guess who's catching. I'll give you one guess. But he won't have to catch all 162 games. The Expos invited four other non-roster catchers to camp (one of which is vet Gregg Zaun, so plan on him being the back-up). As far as you probably want to know, two of the three other guys are pretty much career minor-leaguers with non-majorworthy stats and the third guy, whose stats are a little better, is older than Zaun, who's 32. So expect Mr. Schneider to get more innings than ever before (he's young, he can take it), maybe nail around a dozen HR, hit near .260, and throw out almost 50% percent of the opposing runners who try to steal (he was 1st in the ML among regular catchers last year in CS%).
Next time
The archive site (once again, exposflb.blog-city.com) will have updated Quick Hits next week while I take an in-depth look at the Montreal infield, which could be a feisty group (with one exception) that's fun to watch. Again, any questions you have for me I'll be happy to address at the new e-mail. Until then, spring has officially sprung and reporting for the Expos, I'm Matt Allen--ESPN.
First things first. I have changed my address. You need me--exposflb@insightbb.com and you got me. I'll answer what I can as soon as I can. Also, I promised you detailed draft info. I didn't have room for it on here, but it's listed on my archive site at exposflb.blog-city.com. Look for "Draft Quick Hits". Now, on with the show...
Arms Out--Big Circles!
The final hurrah of the Montreal version of the Expos begins in 46 days. So that means we've gotta get our arms warmed up, right? Let's take a look at the 'Spos rotation. Coming in to camp Numero Uno, is Livan Hernandez. If you've read the Quick Hits, you know I'm high on him. The only Expo pitcher to win 20 games in a season with Montreal was Ross Grimsley in 1978 (Bartolo Colon won 20 in 2002 but won his first ten with the Cleveland Indians). I think this last year Montreal might take the tally to two. Hernandez can do it. It'll take health, work, and luck, but Livan had a 2.42 ERA in the second half last year after changing his mechanics (9-4, 1.05 WHIP, 115 K in 130 IP). He brings that game back, it could really happen. Remember, he's still just 29.
Next up, Tony Armas Jr. could also be a big sleeper if he's healthy. No one's taking him in ESPN drafts right now and that's probably smart. But watch the spring stats. If he's pitching okay, remember him before Opening Day. He only pitched 31 innings last year, which is a small sample to draw from, but he looked good. The stats are there. The only thing that worries me about those stats that was out of character with his past was the low BB total. If he's showing control early--and he's healthy--get him. You'll look smart and all your opponents will grind their teeth as your foresight.
Tomo Ohka is a middle-of-the-road third man. He'll be around 10 wins probably, with a 4.00 ERA or so. He's walking less, but he's whiffing less too. I don't think he'll be able to out-Moyer the NL East, but I could be wrong. Zach Day is an enigma. He's a young pitcher who shows bright spots, but can't really string together more than a month's good work. He's adequate, but the bullpen could end up with a lot of work on his starts. The odds on favorite for the five hole would be Claudio Vargas. He's still young and in the long run will probably be better than Day and Ohka. But now? If he can keep the ball in the ballpark, you might see some improvement this year. Otherwise, expect more bumps in the road for this youngin.
Endgame
There is some debate as to who is the Expos closer. Some say Cordero. Some say Biddle. You say po-tay-to, I say it's Biddle. Sure, Cordero finished the season as the closer and looked good (1 Sv, 1.64 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 11 K in 12 IP), and Biddle looked like...I don't know, Rocky the Squirrel? But Biddle did save 34 games last year, and if he is solid in the spring, Robinson I think may go--or at least start--with Biddle. Cordero was the Expos first round pick LAST YEAR. He's still a kiddie (just 22 by Opening Day) and got plenty of time to take this role and I'm sure he eventually will. But this year? Don't consider it a lock.
Behind the Plate
Well, the Expos have one catcher. That's right. One. Brian Schneider. That's it. So guess who's catching. I'll give you one guess. But he won't have to catch all 162 games. The Expos invited four other non-roster catchers to camp (one of which is vet Gregg Zaun, so plan on him being the back-up). As far as you probably want to know, two of the three other guys are pretty much career minor-leaguers with non-majorworthy stats and the third guy, whose stats are a little better, is older than Zaun, who's 32. So expect Mr. Schneider to get more innings than ever before (he's young, he can take it), maybe nail around a dozen HR, hit near .260, and throw out almost 50% percent of the opposing runners who try to steal (he was 1st in the ML among regular catchers last year in CS%).
Next time
The archive site (once again, exposflb.blog-city.com) will have updated Quick Hits next week while I take an in-depth look at the Montreal infield, which could be a feisty group (with one exception) that's fun to watch. Again, any questions you have for me I'll be happy to address at the new e-mail. Until then, spring has officially sprung and reporting for the Expos, I'm Matt Allen--ESPN.
