Inside the Halo

Finally! [AP Photo]

I traveled to Great American Ball Park this week to check out Ken Griffey Jr. attempt to hit home run number 500. Hot ticket, as both games I attended (Tuesday and Wednesday) were above 35,000 in attendance. Griffey didn't hit a bomb in either game, depriving me of seeing a second person join The Mighty 500 Club in person. I watched Sammy Sosa do it last April at GABP. If I'd seen Griff do it, that would've meant I'd seen 10% of the people in club perform the feat (2 of 20). Alas, Homerville 500 is still only Population: 19.

Here's what's interesting, though. I, a huge Reds fan, couldn't help leave both of those games (BOTH Reds wins) a little disappointed. And I could tell I wasn't alone. I should've been estatic that the Reds had halted their 7-game losing streak and taken the first two of three against the hard-hitting Rangers. I was, I suppose, but I was also looking for that individual feat probably even more than the team one. Sadly, that outlook is not uncommon and is what drives a lot of sports--and a lot of sports ratings.

Griffey hit homer #499 Sunday, June 18, in Cleveland. He's since played three games. Griff's on a bit of a roll this season, finally healthy, and he's already jacked 18 homers this year. I did some checking (thanks to Retrosheet, by the way...great site) to see if, maybe over the years, I wasn't the only fan in this position--that of driving to the ballpark day after day waiting to see a bomb that just isn't going out. It was rather interesing what I found.

NOTE: [The remainder of this column was written post-500 bomb by Griffey. The statistics are still worth hearing though, I think.]

According to history, Griffey should've hit his home run when I was there to watch. Griffey on Sunday became the 20th player to hit 500 home runs. I looked up the previous 19 players to see just how long it took them (in games) to go from 499 to 500. I was only able to get statistics for 12 of the previous 19 (Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, and Mel Ott were unfortunately the six that I couldn't round up data for). Of those 12 I could, 9 of them only played three games or less between the two home runs (Sammy Sosa actually hit his #499 in the final game of the 2002 season, but only missed his chance to hit #500 in the first three games of 2003). Of those 12, Barry Bonds, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt hit it in the very next game. Mark McGwire didn't even wait that long. He hit #499 and #500 in the same game. Reggie Jackson only took one game off between 499 and 500.

Who were the slow rollers like Griffey? Eddie Murray had 5 games and 22 ABs (2 more than Griffey) between 499 and 500. The Mick, Mickey Mantle, took 7 games and 28 ABs between homers 499 and 500. The longest? Can you guess?

Harmon Killebrew tried for 13 games and 43 at-bats before he finally smacked out number 500. The future Hall-of-Famer was most likely so relieved that he managed to relax and bomb number 501 later in the game.

It's impossible to say (for me at least) what the entire data picture would show, but it seems a trend in a large sample of what's available that 499 and 500 usually come pretty close together. For Griffey, it was a little longer than most, but he finally got it done yesterday. Unfortunately for me, it was days after I went to the ball park on back-to-back days to see him do it in person. He also did it on the road, away in St. Louis. He also did it leading off the inning--the sixth, of which I was late coming back to, having flipped away during the commerical. The replay was great though.

Oh well.

So, now that the Waiting for Griff-man Watch is over, hopefully all the flashbulbs will quit popping with every Kenny swing and the Reds can get back to completely focusing on the winning the NL Central. As for me, I'll just have to add Griffey to the list of those I saw hit number 500 on television (Palmeiro, Schimdt, Bonds, McGwire, Murray) instead of the list with one name on it (Sosa) of players I saw do it in person.

But in the future, with McGriff at 493 and Juan Gonzalez, Jeff Bagwell, and Frank Thomas all over 400, if another player makes the approach to 500 and finds himself on the 499 doorstep, don't be shy about going out to the park the next day--and the next and the next--to see him hit #500. Because history shows that it can happen very quickly.

Just not this time.

Regardless, congrats to a special player who, like the other 19 men already in the 500 Club, will deservedly grace the walls of Cooperstown in the years to come. I'm very happy for him.

One thing though, Griff. If you get to 599, I'll be back. Could ya hit 600 just a little quicker? Thanks.