Inside the Halo

The Torch Has Passed

2007-03-20T10:54:00.000-04:00

I no longer cover the Angels for ESPN, so there will be no new posts to this blog until we figure out what to do here. Thanks for the reading and keep enjoying Angels baseball.

A Cold? In July? August?

2005-08-05T03:30:00.000-04:00

How do you catch a cold in July? Anyone? It's 100 degrees outside and I was blowing my nose 562874-every 5 minutes. Now, it's August, and it still feels like someone is sitting on my head. I've had plenty of colds during the playoff chase in the NFL, but very few (I can't remember any) during the stretch drive of a summer pennant race. So that's the reason you haven't heard from me in a bit--what's the Angels offense's excuse? The Halos were next to last in the AL in runs and average for July and last in OBP, SLG, and OPS. Somehow, they managed to go 13-14 with all those horrid numbers, thanks in large part to a 3.98 ERA (3rd in AL). But even better were the Elephant Men (3.66), who have thundered the Angels lead all the way down to 1 game.

Bats Are Sluggish

Currently, the Angels have 2 players who are slugging over .450 that have more than 150 ABs. That's 3 less than Oakland and 5 less than the Texas. Wanna take a guess at which two? Sure, one's easy--Vlad (.556). Number two? No, it's not Garret Anderson. Nope, not expensive free agent signees Steve Finley or Orlando Cabrera. Not rookie slugger Dallas McPherson or newcomer Juan Rivera. That's right--it's backstop Bengie Molina (.458). He's also only the 3rd Halo to hit double digit HRs in '05. Bengie continues to hit the ball well while making a lot of contact (92%). The hitting has to come from somewhere and Bengie just had a .303/4/17 July while playing in 25 games. You can expect that production to continue as long as his health and stamina holds. Only 20% owned. Take a look.

No Lack of Respect Now

I'm very glad to see that John Lackey is almost a universally owned pitcher now in mixed leagues (98%). His ERA has been below 3.50 in every month but April (5.61). We all know a bad start can taint a pitcher's ERA for the remainder of the season, but now Lackey's ERA is beginning to reflect how well he's doing on the mound. In July, he threw 39 Ks and only 6 BBs. He did walk 3 in his first start in August, but since the All-Star Break, his numbers look like this: 3-0, 1.33 ERA, .214 OBA. Someone certainly needed to fill the void left by Kelvim Escobar and he's done it well. Lackey is going to be a very good pitcher for years to come and it looks like he may have finally reached the potential that many had him pegged for since his great run in the 2002 championship season.

Mending Wings: An Ace and Two Jacks

Even with the AL West lead down to a single game, the Halos still have to think about the postseason and playing their cards right now in order to set up a good hand if they get there. The Ace, Kelvim Escobar, is still on target to return in early September, allowing him to throw some meaningful innings in the stretch drive to hopefully prepare for a postseason series. Jarrod Washburn, who--let's face it, is a Jack (you know those crafty Jacks)--will miss his Saturday start and rest a little longer with that forearm tightness. His inexplicable 3.28 ERA will have to sit for now, but he should be back to fooling hitters (and fantasy owners) next week. Finally, Dallas McPherson began his minor league rehab in Rancho Cucamonga 1-3 with a double. He'll be back when his stroke is back.

All Arms

Since there's little reason to rejoice outside of Vlad on the offensive side, there's nothing wrong with continuing our focus on the arms that are carrying this division lead. Bartolo Colon is actually the only starter with double digit wins, but deservedly so, with 13. His K/BB is over 3, and opponents are getting on base at under .300 against him (.294). He did have a bad July, but his first start in August a 7-inning, 0 ER rebound. Paul Byrd continues to pick, pick, pick his way to a formidable year. Yes, his K/9 is only 4.67, but his BB/9 is a mere 1.23, which obviously doesn't give the opposing team any breaks. It's hard to recommend a guy who strikes out so few for several reasons, but Byrd has a lot more good starts than poor ones. A good matchup makes him a good pickup.

Juan Gone

So much for the emergence of Juan Rivera as an offensive jolt. After a stellar June (.341), he cooled off by over 150 points to hit a meager .180 in July. He did manage to drive in 10, but the increased PT did nothing to make him worthy of full-time PT. He's been in RF lately with Vlad just taking the DH slot, but it's hard to see Scioscia going to Rivera too much longer because he's clearly not getting it done. Of course, Jeff DaVanon is doing little to make you think he could produce at a regular clip (.216 in July), but the man can walk--even with that low, low average he still almost managed a .400 OBP (.396). The Angel DHs have managed only 5 HR (3 of those Vlad) this year. Put that together with a .242 AVG and a .638 OPS and the reality is that the pitcher might as well hit.

Rays and A's

Three games that oughta to be easier to win followed up with a matchup against the hottest team in baseball on the road. The upcoming week should be an interesting one for the Halos and maybe the year's first series against the Devil Rays will be just what the offense needs. Because TB has given up more runs that any team in baseball, you'll probably want to activate all Angels hitters and possibly even pick up a free agent (Bengie Molina comes to mind). The A's series will be great baseball to watch and with the Angels likely facing both Harden and Zito, it makes it all the more exciting. It doesn't look like a good matchup on paper, especially considering the A's are 35-18 at home and hit .281 (.248 on road). Big, big test. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

The Question That Has to Be Asked

2005-07-21T18:09:00.000-04:00

Is Vlad really hurt? There really isn't any obvious indication that he is, other than the sore wrist he's been battling, but we've seen him play with bumps and bruises before in Montreal. Could the wrist be something worse? He told the Press-Enterprise that his wrist problems were from taking too many swings. OK, maybe, but here are the (not-so-obvious) facts: Since 2001, Vlad has batted no lower that .270 in any month when he wasn't hurt to the point of having to go to the DL (.143 in June '03 and .224 in May '05). So far in July, his AVG is .172. Secondly, Vlad has one of the best arms in the game, yet he's been DH twice in the last 6 games, which some argue takes a hitter even further off his game. I'm not saying a trip to the DL could be imminent, but I'd watch Vlad very closely.

Lack of Response

I've used line after line here trying to get owners to heed to the nickel's worth of free advice I'm giving on John Lackey. Currently, he's owned in just 2/3 of ESPN mixed leagues. This is a pitcher with 41 K and 5 BB in his last 5 starts (32.1 IP). Yes, I realize his ERA in those starts is a mediocre 4.45, but he's a tick away from being A-class. The last time Lack fanned less than 5 in a start was April 22. That's 15 starts with 5+ Ks. And for the record, in only 4 of those did he walk at least 3. That adds up to an excellent K/9 of 9.0 and K/BB of 2.81, which could start paying big dividends in the W column on a first-place team. The WHIP is a little high, but his Sunday's performance @ MIN shows what he can do (7 IP, 10 K, 0 ER). Continue to ignore Lackey at your own peril.

Seeing the Forest and the Trees

Those of us who picked Chone Figgins up off the scrapheap in late May when other less-talented, less-patient owners waived him can presently smile and nod and do a little Miss America wave (all the while remaining decidedly manly during said wave). Chone hit 30 SB for the year on Tuesday night and hit the road toward 40 with another on Wednesday night. And, oh yeah, he's hitting .318 in July to boot. His July OBP is .384 and 7 BB and only 4 K, that good hitting can be expected to continue. Do know this though--you might want to sit him against LHP because he's only hitting .175 from the right side this year (and, logically, 28 of his 31 SB have come against RHP considering the higher OBP). Figgins remains an excellent target for his excellent speed, good bat, and position eligibility.

The Pen is Mightier

If you needed a reason to like this Angels bullpen, which has the highest K/9 in the AL and is 2nd in K/BB only to Cleveland, just watch them pitch. Solid. K-Rod is top-shelf (but of course very hard to trade for), Scot Shields has achieved former-"Octavio Dotel" status in middle relief, becoming a universally owned set-up man, even in shallow leagues. If you've been here recently at all, you know I'm still high on Brendan Donnelly, and the numbers back me up, although he hasn't pitched much lately with the starters doing as well as they are. And, also don't forget about Joel Peralta, who's had a bit of a rough stretch of late, but he's still shown he has what it takes to be a solid reliever. The only weak spots are Kevin Gregg and Esteban Yan, who've been good before.

Mending Wings: A Toss is Not a Throw

Kelvim Escobar "tossed" this week, according to the OC Register, his first step in getting back after elbow surgery. I would only be a little optimistic about this, as Scoiscia made it clear that he was tossing more than actually throwing. Best guess estimate still has him back in August, which may or may not be soon enough to help your team. For now, he's off the radar. Dallas McPherson is coming along and could be back as early as next week, but a rehab assignment is probably in his future and that hasn't been scheduled yet. He should start swinging any day now and the trainers and D-Mac will go from there.

Knick-Knack-Paddy-Whack to the Playoffs?

The Angels rank 11th or worse in HR, AVG, OBP, and OPS in the AL. They've managed to manufacture enough runs to fall in the middle of the pack, thanks to 82 SB (good for 3rd in the AL) and other knick-knacky, but very important, things that unsuccessful clubs don't do, like leading MLB with .306 average with RISP. If the power outage continues--and with this team, only Vlad strikes me as someone with raw power to burn--can the Angels knick-knack all the way to the World Series? Might be tough. Will the starters have to continue to pitch as well as they have to get the Angels over the hump? Pundits always say good pitching beats good hitting, and this year, the Angels will be the perfect example if they advance.

The Thundering Herd

The Elephant Men are now the closest competitor in the Halos' rearview mirror in the AL West. They passed Chuck Norris and Co. and will now be a threat to make a charge (as they demonstrated with a series win in Anaheim). It's interesting when you look at the A's, because in a lot of ways, they look like this Angels club--only 42 million dollars cheaper. The thick of a pennant race isn't exactly the time to talk payrolls, but it is interesting that with Guerrero, Anderson, Finley, Cabrera and the rest of the Halos currently have a .729 OPS while the A's and their anemic offense have managed a .731. Oh well, as Biggie used to say, "Mo Money, Mo Problems" (the Yankees would agree). Bottom line--Halos have more Ws. That’s all that matters. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

What Was That?!

2005-07-11T18:48:00.000-04:00

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only twice in MLB history had a team as far below .500 as the Mariners gone on the road to sweep a team as far above .500 as the Angels (to give you an idea of how long it's been, the last team to do it was the St. Louis BROWNS). This past weekend, it happened for a 3rd time. The Angels plated 13 runs in the 4-gamer but allowed 33, 21 of those by the starters. After laying that egg, the Halo AL West lead is down to only 5 games. A division that most declared over isn't so over anymore. That's why I chuckle when people say a division is over in June or early July. Still a lot of baseball to play, and the loss of Kelvim Escobar will still have plenty of time to rear its ugly head. The Angels are still the favorite (have you seen Texas' rotation?), but Yogi would tell ya it ain't over.

Mirror Master?

Bartolo Colon's first half of 2004 made owners go out and buy milk and batteries (6-8, 6.38 ERA, 76 K). BC's first half of 2005 has been much, much better (11-5, 3.42 ERA, 89 K), even with Thursday's thrashing vs. Seattle (6 IP, 7 H, 7 ER). Could this be a sign of a terrible 2nd half for him? We could see a little slip. In 3 of his last 6 starts (all at least 6 IP), he's only fanned 3 or less. What's kept him afloat (and could continue to) is his miniscule walk total. Even with 3 walks on Thursday, he's only allowed 6 free passes in his last 9 starts. That's a BB/9 of 0.8--fan-smackin-tastic. If he's only going to continue to fan only 5.5 per 9, his walks will have to stay that low, but a 3.87 K/BB ratio is going to give you great success most of the time. Forget Thurday--for now.

Flipping Statistical Analysis the Byrd

Speaking of riding low K totals to success, the 2nd most productive SP for the Halos in the first half was Paul Byrd. I said that he would have to be pinpoint with all his pitches to be successful, and for the most part, he has been. A 3.75 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP tells the story. In 17 starts, Byrd has struck out 6 only twice while completing 6 innings in all but one of his starts. His saving grace is his 16 BB in 115 IP. What's possibly most amazing is that this soft-tosser has done it with a 0.84 G/F ratio and a HR/9 of 0.85. History says he'll have to stay this fine with his control to have continued success, but history also says that the most BBs Byrd has surrendered in since 2000 is 38--the same year he fanned a career high of 129 and won 17. Don't see too many byrds like Paulie.

Always Swingin'

And hardly ever missing. In 33 ABs in July, Bengie Molina hasn't walked a single time and struck only once. The hits are falling in too, as his .394 July average proves. Bengie has been known for seeing few pitches he doesn't like and at least making contact with most of them. Obviously, this kind of production can't continue over a whole season (especially when you figure in the big disadvantage of speed in Bengie's case), but with a .311 mark at the All-Star Break and 8 HRs, finishing off the year with a .300+ average and 15+ HR doesn't sound far-fetched. Remember, he's only played in 54 games, but realistically, expecting more than 110 might be too much. You could do a lot worse in deeper leagues, though, than making a move to get B. Molina.

Mound Notes

Joel Peralta had another poor outing on Friday (1.2 IP, 3 ER), which raised his ERA to 4.74. That's his 2nd hiccup in 4 outings, but it still might be a little premature to give up on him. Take away those 2 bad showings (2.2 IP 8 ER, 5 BB) and you've got a 1.10 ERA with 18 K and only 3 BB. Even Friday he still fanned 4 of the 5 batters he retired. His 4 HR in only 19 IP is probably just bad luck. He's kept the ball in the yard well in the minors. He's in a rough patch but can still help you. Esteban Yan is a pitcher who came highly recommended out of spring training but has struggled profusely. It appears that he finally may be putting it together, with an ERA and WHIP under 1 the last 4 weeks. Just put him on your watch list for now because he's had some luck (20% hit rate).

Free Agent Disappointments

That's really the only way to classify Steve Finley and Orlando Cabrera after the first half. Sure, Finley hit 8 HRs, but he also hit .223. Sure, Orlando Cabrera has fewer errors than any regular SS in the AL, but he's hit .249. Both players OPS is under .700 and they're both currently injured. That's not what the Angels had in mind when they handed over the big dough for the multi-year contracts for these two. Will the 2nd half be any better? I think you can expect them both back soon and both to hit for a higher average they have (possibly much higher), but the big numbers that fantasy owners were hoping for when drafting SF and OC are not going to be there. Finley could still approach 20 HR and Cabrera double-digit SB, but this is a year they'll probably both want to forget.

All-Star Cheers and Jeers

The Angels sent the fewest players to Detroit among AL division leaders with Chicago and Boston both sending 4, but the 3 that are there certainly deserve the honor. Vlad goes for the 6th time, GA the 3rd, and Colon the 2nd. Congrats to them as they try to lead the AL to victory for the 8th time in 9 years (don't forget the tie of 2002). Hopefully this will be the last time the All-Star will decide home-field advantage in the World Series. Sure, it's an interesting gimmick, but the fairest (and really the best) way of deciding the home field had yet to be used for the World Series. We've tried alternating years between leagues, we've tried "This Time It Counts", how about we try the rational solution of best overall record? Just a thought. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Mid-Terms

2005-07-02T03:06:00.000-04:00

Good morning, class! Don't freak out, student readers--this isn't a pop quiz. However, for the Halos, the completion of the weekend set against Kansas City will officially mark the halfway point for the 2005 regular season. Right now, as a team, the Angels hold a pretty commanding 6.5 game lead over Chuck Norris and his Texas Rangers. Individually speaking (which is why you're here), there are some Angels that could be accused of using a crib sheet to fool fantasy owners at mid-terms. Conversely, some Halos are standing out in this year's class and continue to be ignored (and passing notes or checking out the pretty girl in class is no excuse, fantasy owners!). We've also got several players skipping this session because of an appointment with the nurse (we'll get to them later).

John Lackey

I don't get it. I really don't. I've banged and banged on my keyboard this year, trying to get owners to listen and be a part of John Lackey's solid season. Nothing. I said draft him. Few of you did. I've said pick him up, make him a trade target--I'll get a few e-mails agreeing with me and thanking me. For the most part, this is what I get in response to Lackey--"Yeah, but he's just not putting it together. He just can't get over the hump." Oh, really? 16 starts, 98.1 IP, 6-2 record, 3.84 ERA--and 64% owned in mixed leagues. Are you kidding me? Do you know how many AL starters currently have a higher K/9 in '05 than John Lackey? One. Last year's Cy Young, Johan Santana. Why over 1/3 of owners want to continue to miss out on his production is beyond me.

Brendan Donnelly

What--Mr. Pine Tar? Mr. 8 Game Suspension? You bet. There's never been a better time to get him. That kind of pub is what (for some reason) fantasy owners always respond to. BD's only owned in 3% of mixed leagues (89%) AL, but those have gone down since his infamous brush with baseball law. But do you know what those Donnelly bailers missed? 2 wins, 8 K, 1.13 ERA, 0.63 WHIP in 8 IP of superb work. The season ERA is 3.65, but you take out 2 bad outings in early June and it's 2.25. He's got 6 wins, which is more than Carl Pavano, Brad Radke, and Barry Zito--all of whom are above 85% owned. Here's another perfect example of obvious production being almost universally missed by fantasy owners who don't know where to look.

Adam Kennedy

Kennedy has been absolutely tearing the cover off the ball for the last month, completing a .444 June with 13 RBI and 4 SB. He's been doing it with little to no power though, with only 6 of his 36 hits in June going for extra bases. Slap-hitting isn't necessarily bad though when you're hitting for an average like AK's. Sadly, though, while he could still wind up on the north side of .300 for the year (although I'm not convinced), his .345 average won't hold. He's got a 47% hit rate, and that just won't hold up over the long term despite the excellent contact he made in June (93%). I mentioned this before and I suppose I'll have to say it again--Kennedy could either be used to fill an injury gap for you and would be pretty good trade bait with his current high value.

Jarrod Washburn

Most inexperienced owners see the 3.21 ERA, the 4 decent wins, and the fact that he's on a winning team and think, "I could really make some noise with this Washburn guy." No, you won't. AL owners should be looking to deal him yesterday. That ERA is going to rise, especially considering his K/9 is an atrocious 4.6. Add in a 1.73 K/BB and a 82% strand rate (rate of runners allowed on base that didn't score), and you've got upcoming ERA spike. Don't say I didn't warn you. With a more normal 72% strand rate, his ERA would be 4.37. I can't stress highly enough for AL owners--the time is now to get rid of Wash. The spike could come in the very next start. Wash isn't a guy who has "name" value, you have to deal when the numbers are good. That means now.

Mending Wings: A Fond Adieu to Kelvim

Steve Finley, according to the team site, is shagging balls and running the bases. He should be activated on schedule (7.6). Dallas McPherson (groin) and Bengie Molina (stomach) are day-to-day. Orlando Cabrera is also day-to-day, but he's not doing anything baseball-related right now, so his return could take a little bit. He could be a decent bet to be DLed. Most notably since last time, Kelvim Escobar opted for surgery on the bone spur in his elbow. He most likely won't be back until at least late August and possibly September. Given the time off involved and the lack of games remaining when he does resurface, I sadly have to say it's time to waive bye-bye to Kelvim for '05. Don't forget him come next year--this year's injury shouldn't reduce his top-level status for 2006.

Around the Halo

Juan Rivera his .341 in 41 ABs in June and has filled in nicely during the injury to Finley. It will be interesting to see if his ABs are increased when Finley returns. Jeff DaVanon owners keep watch. That’s who would lose the most PT. Don't worry about Jake Woods' 2 IP, 6 ER, 3 HR performance against TEX Thursday. The Rangers were just locked in. Don't be fooled by his inflated 4.10 ERA now. It's 2.22 without those 2 IP. Boy, Ervin Santana is going to be really good--but not yet. Paul Byrd is pitching the best he has all year and considering that he won't hurt you (only horrible start was 4.23 vs. OAK), he might be worth taking a look at for those of you who are looking for a little extra pitching. Stay cool, readers, but enjoy that sunshine. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Jose Guillen is a Child

2005-06-22T02:30:00.000-04:00

This is not a bitter homer-type of rant. I've cheered for Jose Guillen for a while now. I shouted to the trees that the Reds should've traded Griffey, Kearns, or even Dunn before letting Guillien go to Oakland in 2003. And I've enjoyed seeing Guillen become an excellent player--but he's never matured as a person. He's the same whiny Guillen that came into the league, that asked for a trade incessantly in Cincinnati, and the same one that ran his mouth about Scioscia when an adult would've kept it shut. I get it that he doesn't like Mike. I'm fine with that. But we don’t need to hear his grudge tantrums. In January, Guillen said the only time he and a manager would "have a problem" is when he wasn't in the lineup. My problem with Guillen is when he opens his mouth.

Who's Your Vladdy?

Since returning from the DL, Vlad is hitting .439 with 4 HR and 12 RBI in 10 games. If only he'd get hurt more often, right? What makes it better is that he's actually walked more times that he's whiffed, which isn't typical of West Coast Vlad. This is easily the best he's looked all year and another season of .330+ with close to 40 HR is surely in store. I realize he's a little behind in the jack jaunt, but a healthy half-season will net him about 20 bombs, and we're still 3 weeks away from the All-Star Break. Vlad is one of those guys who can single-handedly keep a fantasy team afloat--which means he's incredibly hard to acquire. That doesn't mean I'd stop trying though. Outside of maybe Bobby Abreu, there still isn't anyone in the OF who will post what Vlad does the rest of '05.

Fantasy Crime in the First Degree

It really is a shame that Darin Erstad is a 1B. He's actually having a very productive year. He's tied for the team lead in runs, hits, and walks, while leading the team in doubles. The problem (and, in fantasy, there always seems to be a problem with Erstad) is that he plays first. With the depth in power at that position (think Lee, Pujols, Sexson, Teixeira, Konerko, and Ortiz) an owner can't afford to have a guy with 3 HR and SLG of .401. That's just awful for a power position. Now, say, you have A-Rod, Soriano, AND Tejada, then your infield can afford a guy at 1B who won't hit 10 HR. Otherwise, Erstad remains a player, that while productive, could put your roster at a disadvantage in the HR and RBI categories because of where he plays (hitting 1st or 2nd won't net 1B-like RBI).

Mending Wings: Foiled Elbows

Orlando Cabrera is having elbow problems. In his own words, OC told the team's official site, "I couldn't even move my arm." While it's still early in the diagnosis, that's not good. His .659 OPS will be sorely missed as he's day-to-day. Macier Izturis will fill the void (whose OPS is .575). Kelvim Escobar continues to rehab his elbow. His 3rd DL stint this year means that a 4th is more likely than not. The label of "ticking time bomb" for Escobar stands. When he has healthy moments, he's going to be outstanding, evidenced by his 3.54 ERA and 10.2 K/9. The problem, though, is that his injury makes him a very high-risk member of your roster. Still, if you have the luxury to hang onto him, you'd be remiss to let him go until he's officially out for the year.

June Swoons

Dallas McPherson hit 3 HRs in 3 days in late May and everyone thought, "Oh, boy. Here he comes." Ownership and interest soared--while I warned that indeed he has power, but his free-swinging (and I don't mean "life of the party") style at the plate would cause him to have further slumps like the one he had to start the year (11-58, .190). So far in June, he's hitting .224 with 2 BB and 20 Ks. All-or-nothing. Steve Finley also had a super May (.340, 18 RBI), but June's been anything but (.239, .656 OPS). Finley, at least for the immediate future, has a much better chance of hitting his way into an extended hot streak--he's making a better contact and still has a little speed to help him. Look for SF to rebound and DM to continue with occasional bursts of power.

Another Brick in the Wall

Just like any rookie, Ervin Santana is going to show he needs lessons in consistency. His previous 2-start stint while Escobar was out produced on good start and one terrible one. This time around it's the same. In a strange way, he's somewhat like Escobar now, only Escobar won't hurt the bottom line in the stat books--he just won't be healthy enough to pitch. That makes Santana, like all rookies, a bigger risk even though he's healthy because you never know if he's going to implode and give up 7 ER in 2.2 IP or fan 7 in 6 IP for the win. It sounds weird, but you might actually get a taker in a Santana/Escobar deal, since Ervin is highly touted and Kelvim isn't playing. Acquire Santana and give it a shot--there are plenty of years in the future to own Santana--2005 isn't one of them.

Caution Ahead

This stretch for the Halos is extremely important--7 games against 2nd place Chuck Norris and the Boys and the always tough Twins, balanced by prime opportunities against the struggling Dodgers, Royals, and Mariners. From now until the Break, the Angels will have to play well and they know it. Might be a good time to watch your Angels players shine in the clutch. With Paul Byrd pitching much better lately, it gives the Angels a much-needed lift with Escobar out. I know his K/9 is really too low for a competitive owner to be happy about acquiring him, but he's walked 2 batters in his last 5 starts (35 IP). That’s solid. Garret Anderson is a pure hitter. Only 10 BBs, little power, and somehow he's hitting .314. And on pace for 115 RBI. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Sliding Doors

2005-06-13T00:01:00.000-04:00

Have you seen the Gwyneth Paltrow movie where she's rushing to make the train and the moment splits and you spend most of the movie seeing how her life would've been different depending on whether or not she got on the train in time? Well, the Angels are at that moment, because that's how integral Kelvim Escobar is to their success. He's on the DL again with elbow soreness due to a bone spur that can break off at any time and turn into bone chips which would mean 6-8 weeks of down time. After his start on Wednesday where he left early with elbow soreness, he really sounded like he was ready to take the surgery route. Mike Scioscia seems to think they can patch and re-patch until the offseason. What happens from here with just Escobar could literally mean the division. We'll see.

Mending Wings: The Impaler

Talk about quickly shaking off the rust. Vlad's 4 for his first 9 back off the DL. I'd say it's safe to say he's back. The only thing that is a worry after a shoulder injury is power. All of those hits so far are singles, so keep an eye on that. He'll probably be okay though. Scioscia said that his BP swings look very normal--meaning he's hitting the ball really, really far and really, really hard. All signs point to the Halos recalling Ervin Santana to replace Escobar in the interim. He comes with the "going-to-be-really-good-but-remember-he's-only-a-rookie" disclaimer. If Escobar is out for an extended period of time, don't be surprised to see the Angels look for someone not on the roster to replace him.

Around the Rotation

With Escobar out and the Texas pushing the Angels for first in the AL West, the performance of the rest of the rotation is that even more important. Don't look for too many gems from Jarrod Washburn though. He's fanned only 14 batters in his last 5 starts (32 IP), which is bad enough before you consider that he's walked 13 in that same stretch. Yeah, the ERA's 3.09 in that span, but that won't last. Find a buyer now if you've got him. As I've said many times before, Bartolo Colon is a workhorse. He's got quite the load right now. He's shouldering it very well, too. In his last 4 starts, he's 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA, 26 Ks and only 1 BB. That's fantastic. John Lackey was a wobbly Sunday (6 BB), but after a 3.02 ERA in May and a good start in June, he's a solid pickup in mixed leagues.

At the Bat Rack

Garret Anderson is hitting .421 in June with only 1 K in 38 AB. That's what's called an absolute groove. Dallas McPherson is also hitting well since June 1st (.303, 1 HR, 6 RBI). He's fanned 10 times though, so don't expect that average to continue. Hope you picked up Chone Figgins during his .220 May. Some owners were, er, misguided enough to waive him (I got him as a FA and he's proceeded to hit .292 with 15 RBI and 9 SB on my roster). He's got a real shot at 50 SB and he'll be hard to acquire now. Adam Kennedy is off to a great June too (.467, 8 R). He'd be a good grab in mixed leagues while he's hot or maybe as trade bait. The Halos have attempted 79 SB in '05--only Tampa Bay and the Chicago White Sox have attempted more. Even Bengie Molina tried 2 this week!

More Than Middle Relief

Is there a good reason why only 5% of mixed league owners have rostered Brendan Donnelly? Yes, the ERA is 4.34, but you take away 2 bad outings in June and it's 2.57. He's vultured 4 wins already. He's fanned 22 in 29 IP and only walked 7. He's got as many (or more) wins as Carl Pavano, Roger Clemens, Mark Prior, and Jason Schmidt. Batters are only hitting .227 off him this season. Will he revolutionize your roster? Probably not--his HRs up a little this year (already surrendered 5 after giving up 5 all last year) and his Ks are down from the past 3 seasons, but overall the numbers are still there and there's little doubt he'd be easy to acquire for minimal, if any, value. It's pitchers like Donnelly who can make a difference in a good season and a great one.

O. Crap

Is it finally time to say something's really wrong with Orlando Cabrera? When a player signs for 32 mil over 4 years and then proceeds to hit .239 through mid-June, questions have to be asked. And the answer is yeah. Okay, he's had some bad luck (26% hit rate), but his hit rate from '02-'04 averages to 29%, which would only give him a .261 average. That's probably not what the Halos paid for in terms of offense. OC is locking everything up at short, but that doesn't help fantasy owners a bit. What's really interesting (especially on a team managed by Scioscia) is that he's not running--only 4 SB attempts this year (made all 4). Dallas McPherson has tried 4 times in 17 less games with less speed. Bottom line is you shouldn't expect OC's average to jump much, but he'll hit 12-15 HR.

Odds and Ends

Steve Finley now leads the team in HRs with 8. His G/F ratio is down, but I still wouldn't expect much more than 20 for the year, certainly nothing near last year's 36. That .233 average of his will rise though. Give it some time. Joel Peralta and Jake Woods have a combined 28 K and 3 BB--not to mention a 2.25 ERA. Neither are owned in more than 60% of AL leagues so if you need a little pitching, you could certainly do much worse. They replace my other recommendation, Kevin Gregg, who was sent down after a horrible start to this year. The Halos are 9th in total bases in the AL but 5th in runs scored. That kind of run manufacturing and will make them a good postseason team--if they can only get there. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

The Black Cat Under the Ladder

2005-06-03T00:01:00.000-04:00

It's a good thing I'm not superstitious, because I leave the country and K-Rod hits the DL, Vlad goes down next, and then the Angels fall to 2nd place. Of course, they did go 8-5 in that stretch (the real problem was that Texas didn't lose the entire duration of my honeymoon!). Still, the Halos are back in a tie for tops in the AL West (you're welcome, er, wait--I'm not superstitious). K-Rod is back as well, and 2 other young Angels (1 you've heard of, the other you haven't) could also be about ready to be a part of your fantasy roster. Plus, we've got a last-minute signing that could alter the franchise, an offense that has scored 7 or more runs in each of its last 4 wins, and e-mail coming out my ears! Sheesh. That's a lot to cover. Let's take it Around the Halo.

Mending Wings: Returns, Returns

We start here, because some of the biggest names on the team reside here. Vlad is running and throwing, but won't swing until next week and still isn't catching toss either. With interleague play coming up in the NL parks, it could be harder to get him in the game with no DH. Scioscia, on the team website, wouldn't rule out a return before the end of the road trip, but a June 13 date looks like a possible target. He's progressing, so be patient. K-Rod is back and while he probably won't go 3 days in a row for a bit (or maybe even back-to-back in some instances), he's pitching pain free and that's a good sign that he'll be 100% as soon as he shakes off the rust. [Insert relaxed smile here.] Scot Shields, even going back to just set up duty, is still very valuable.

I've received a bit of mail concerning the reliability of Escobar's apparent good health and while the fact that he has to have surgery eventually on that elbow (just hopefully not until after the season) makes him a ticking time bomb, it's hard to argue with his first outing back from the DL (5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 2 BB). He'll probably go a little further Friday at Boston. He's too good for you to get full value right now and probably worth riding until he breaks anyway (which hopefully won't happen). Keep an eye on him and pray. Also, Macier Izturis looks to begin his AAA rehab as early as Monday with Salt Lake. He's strictly an extreme fringe player for now, but those in deep leagues can take note. Finally, Curtis Pride's wrist injury could be tendonitis. More to follow.

Make It Mac Tonight

Do you remember that silly moon-headed pianist? Well, anyway, Dallas McPherson has gone off in the past week with 4 HR, 9 RBI, and a .370 AVG. D-Mac started slow and up until the last 7 games there were no signs of him warming up much at all. Does this recent stretch signal the beginning of something special? To a degree. Make no mistake--even though he's made contact in 21 of his 27 ABs the last week, he's still walked only 10 times to 37 whiffs, so there won't be many more .370 weeks. Is the power there? Yes. It was waiting to explode. Now, striking out so much will lend to longer slumps for him, but if you're looking for a guy who can club the ball, D-Mac who's still widely available in mixed leagues at a tough position. Take a look in deeper (and keeper) leagues.

Joel Peralta

Who? JP came up a couple of weeks ago when K-Rod hit the DL. Surprisingly, he wasn't sent down to make room for Frankie's return (Chris Bootcheck got that dubious honor). Joel Peralta is a guy who's only gotten looks in 1.9% of AL leagues, but he could really be a help to your fantasy team. No, he doesn't have any Major League experience, but he's 29 and seasoned in the minors. He's got excellent numbers the last 2 years at AA Arkansas and AAA Salt Lake. He keeps the ball in the park and he strikes out plenty of guys with good control. I don't know how long he'll remain with the Halos (it could be a while), but he'd be a very good speculative pickup for a team looking to pick up some Ks with the potential to help the ERA and WHIP. Very easy to get--even in deep leagues.

The 11th Hour, the 59th Minute

In a deal that no one thought would happen, the Angels signed college standout pitcher Jered Weaver to a deal in the final hours of the last day before he was to become eligible for the '05 Draft. The Halos took him 12th overall last year but Scott Boras did his usual job of gumming up the works (and to be fair, that is his job). In the LA Times, Boras did his best to make Weaver sound like a hometown guy who took a discount and was going to try and get by on 4 million at 22 years old. Yeah, that’ll be rough. Look, Weaver's probably going to be great--and he did the right thing. He put himself in a position to start playing baseball now--which is exactly what he should be doing. Despite the posturing Boras did, he lost this negotiation. Hats off to Bill Stoneman on an excellent job.

Uh, Excuse Me, Axl?

Thank you again for the well wishes concerning my wedding. Some of you had some very kind and thoughtful things to say (who said fantasy baseball geeks are all statistics and no emotion?). Amongst those e-mails with advice ranging from "always cherish your wife and your time together" to "get married in the offseason, dork" were plenty of actual fantasy questions, of which I will try to answer as quickly as I can. I hope you'll be patient as I catch up--there were a lot of them. My computer actually stopped taking e-mails about halfway through my absence and began piling your queries in my desk chair. Axl, Slash, and I appreciate your patience. Huge 7-game stretch coming up--2 division leaders (BOS, ATL). Should be a lot of fun. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Pitching A Fit

2005-05-18T00:01:00.000-04:00

It's a good thing the Angels are only hitting .242 as a team. It's a good thing their .294 OBP (lowest in the AL) has netted them just 159 runs, more than only Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland (who have 3 of the 5 worst records in the AL). Those are good things--otherwise, we might gloss over just how good this Halo pitching staff has been. There's a 3.59 ERA, only beaten by the White Sox, who have the best record in baseball. Only the White Sox and Twins have allowed fewer runs. Only 1 team has a better K/9 (Baltimore). Only 2 teams have better K/BB (Minnesota and Cleveland). Opponents are hitting .218 off of the bullpen (again, only MIN and CLE are better). This is a good year (like several before now) to own a number of Angel pitchers.

K-Rod and Scot Shields are great targets (we've discussed them), although they'll be tough to deal for. Brendan Donnelly is also very solid, though his K/9 is down to date in '05. Did somebody say Jake Woods? How does 13 Ks against 2 BBs grab you? Don't forget about the solid rotation. Bartolo Colon. John Lackey is very close to putting it together. Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd have fared pretty well also, but their walks will probably have to continue to stay miniscule for them to produce as they have. There are issues with Kelvim Escobar's elbow that could prove to be disastrous for his '05 campaign (more on that later), but even with those problems, a new name emerges.

The New Santana

Ervin Santana, to my knowledge, is not related to Johan Santana, but his talent could prove to be akin to that of 2004's AL Cy Young Award winner. Before you leap out of your seat and break your mouse clicking for the free agent page, remember that Johan debuted in the majors in 2000 but only found success in June of 2002. It will take some time for Ervin to settle in (evidenced by Tuesday's 4 IP, 6 ER performance). He definitely has the talent, but there's no guarantee he'll get to compete long at the ML level. His highest experience to date is at AA, so that should temper expectations as well. Baseball HQ has Santana as the top pitching prospect in the Angel system and his early numbers certainly bear that out, but he's still just 22 with no ML experience. One day, though…

OC Hates the OC

I really don't know Orlando Cabrera's opinion of the TV show, but he definitely doesn't like Angel Stadium. His .203 AVG and .605 OPS (!) tell me that without having to ask. To his credit, he's had terrible luck at home (23% hit rate). You combine that with a 92% contact rate at home and that means before long, the hits will begin to fall--possibly in bunches. Even away from home, OC is due for an upswing in, well, just about everything. He's putting the ball in play 90% of the time and despite all the bad luck, he's not pressing at the plate (11 BB vs. 13 K). He's not tearing the cover off the ball, but he's not struggling to square up either. Everything points to Cabrera turning it around soon, and now would be an excellent time take advantage of an impatient owner's worries.

Chone Gone to Lunch

Here's another guy who's really struggling right now, but there is a little more cause for concern with Figgins. Most of his numbers at least resemble his success in the past, but Figgins has always made at least average contact. This year so far he's only put wood on the ball in 79% of his ABs. That's his 1st time below the 80% mark and it represents the 3rd consecutive year his contact percentage has fallen if his performance trend continues. With his role on the team, he's got to start putting the bat on the ball a little more. He's working the count (4.09 P/PA), which accounts for a mediocre BB%, but he's got to do it with his plate patience when he's 0 for his last 20 as he is now. The SBs will continue, but it's hard to see a big total if his .293 OBP doesn't improve greatly.

Mending Wings: Big Names, Big Worries?

I mentioned last time that Kelvim Escobar could be out a while. He's on the 15-day DL due to a bone spur in his elbow. If it gets worse, could lead to bone chips, which would require surgery (one he's had once before) and cost him 6-8 weeks. The only thing that can stop Escobar is injury and for now it will. The season isn't lost yet, but his 2nd stint on the DL raises the risk of keeping him significantly. With only 4 starts (regardless of how good they were), his trade value is minimal. If you can afford to hold him, you should. Finley has been out with a tight groin. He played Tuesday (1-5, RBI). He'll probably be okay with the rest he's had. K-Rod is out until likely the weekend with a forearm strain. Scioscia & Co. sound positive, but this is definitely something to watch.

Wedding Transactions

I want to take a minute and thank all of you who sent a note of well wishes for my upcoming wedding. I really appreciate it. Unfortunately, there's no one to call up to fill the void in my absence, but this will only be a 15-day stint on the WL. I'll be back 100% (and probably with a much better tan) after Memorial Day weekend, ready to take it through the rest of the season. You can still e-mail at ith@insightbb.com although I won't be able to respond until I return. I appreciate your patience. Enjoy the Angels while I'm away and rest assured that even though I won't following them around the diamond in the coming days, I will be dancing with one around an island in the Caribbean. I said this when we were engaged--God must really love Halo fans. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Meet Hal

2005-05-13T00:01:00.000-04:00

Hal is a .240 hitter. He walks in about 7% of his ABs, strikes out more than he should, which means his BB/K is about 0.43. That's not hot--at all. Being one of those sub-.700 OPS guys, you wouldn't expect Hal to hang around long at the major league level--or at least, if he does, it would be on a team with minimal success and the ability to go nowhere near the postseason. You might ask why Hal (and his offensive ineptitude) would be a topic of discussion in this particular space. Well, it's because Hal is from southern California--in particularly Anaheim. And on any given night so far in 2005, Hal hits 1-9 in your Los Angeles Angels lineup. Hal has high expectations, but he's also has a really big problem--he has no O. Neither do the Halos. Kitschy illustration? Yes. But true.

I hear you saying 'yeah, yeah, they'll come around. The hits'll start falling.' Well--they are. The Angels, as a team, have a 29% hit rate, which is pretty close to normal. Fine, you say, they just need to hit in the clutch. Well, they're kinda doing that too. They're in the middle of the pack with runners in scoring position. With RISP & 2 out, they're 3rd in the AL. Clutch hitting is all they can do--with the bases empty, the Hal_s are .232. This past 6-game homestand, they scored 14 runs and hit .189. That's trouble, even if Detroit is pitching well and Cleveland has a lot of good arms. Scioscia likes aggressive hitters. The team site quotes hitting coach Mickey Hatcher saying the Angels are being too passive at the plate. With a league-low .294 OBP, a few BBs couldn't hurt.

The Shield of Protection

Maybe one of the reasons the Angels can hit the way they have and still be atop the AL West is pitching performances like Scot Shields'. This guy for real. K-Rod gets the pub--he's the closer, they usually do. But Shields has thrown 270 IP mostly out of the pen in the last 2+ seasons. His K/9 is going up (11.44), he holds opponents to a .174 AVG, he's already picked up 3 wins, 7 holds, and oh, yeah, 25 K in 19.2 IP. This guy is like State Farm, All-State, and Geico all rolled into one--he's so good, Scot Shields may even save you money on your insurance. This is a guy you should own. He's a difference-making middle reliever, but it could be hard to get him. Make a push though. His BB/9 is a little high now, but history says it will drop. Shields is one of MLB's best relievers.

Completely Off-Topic Part 1

I'd like to play Alanis Morissette here for a moment and point out something that I really do think is a little ironic. The NFL is considering, among other places, Anaheim as a home for a relocated or expansion team. However, the Anaheim city council says that land is worth much more to the city as a high-density housing development (and they're right). According to the LA Times, though, the only way Anaheim can build that kind of project across from Angel Stadium is to clear it with--that's right, Angel owner Arte Moreno. Now, it's much, much more complicated than that, but it's interesting to note that they each have something the other wants. Two council members, though, were quoted as saying that a trade would not be an option for the city. And isn't is ironic…

Mending Wings: Potentially Bad, Bad News

Bengie Molina was activated from the DL. He's been out and he'll probably be handled cautiously, but remember how well he hit before he got hurt. Steve Finley left Wednesday's game with a tight left groin. According to the team website, he'll be fine and was just being extra cautious. The bad news (potentially the worst of '05) is that Kelvim Escobar's early exit after a 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 K performance could be his last for a while. His right elbow has pain--pain in a 'I had surgery for bone chips in '97 and it feels the same' kinda way. That's terrible news if it's true. That would put him out 6-8 weeks and put the AL West back into play. The OC Register says it's different from his the injury that kept him from starting the year on time, but more bone chips could be even worse.

Completely Off-Topic Part 2

I'm not a communist and I just want to say that anywhere there is a market for what you're selling, then bully for you if you make a boatload of scratch. However, in a world where marketing and advertising is king, are we at least (the very least) approaching the line at which it's just too far? Have we blown by it completely? I was listening to the Yankee radio broadcast recently (for Yankee fans, this is probably old news), and Yankee broadcaster John Sterling was forced to read the following [paraphrased]: "That run Tony Womack just scored was brought to you by So-And-So and Such-And-Such." We're sponsoring runs now? The Reds have "Great American Insurance runs" but those are for charity. This was a commercial. Does UPS start sponsoring every Unit fastball?

Finding the Schwa in the O

So, the Angels, at least for now, can't hit. What's the perfect cure? A 9-game road trip to 3 pitching parks. If that doesn't work, the next logical option is to let them swing with broomsticks. Or a conductor's baton. The final remedy, if all else fails, would be to add blindfolds. Steve Finley is 6-18 the past week. His .198 total average might still swing a favorable trade. I know Orlando Cabrera is hitting just .053 better than your grandmother right now, but he's only fanned once in that span and the hits will start to find the holes. That's it for now, but I would like to mention that the letter O in the word 'mention' earlier in this sentence is sponsored by Schwa, who reminds you, "When you need a soft vowel--think Schwa". For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

The Road Didn't Hit Back

2005-05-06T00:54:00.000-04:00

Yes, the Yankees are tanking and Seattle has been anything but impressive for the first month of the season, but the Angels pitched their way to a 6-3 road trip that included two teams many thought of as World Series contenders this spring and the other was a vogue pick for Most Improved Team. What's encouraging (and discouraging) is that the Angels didn't score more than 5 runs in a game the entire trip. The bullpen is just (smile) fan-tastic, and it looks like Anderson and Finley are beginning to show a little more power to compliment Vlad. After A-Rod's Manwich-sized performance against Colon on 4/26, the starters posted a 1.96 ERA the rest of the trip. We'll go Around the Rotation in a bit, but first let's looks and Mending Wings and the return of the 2002 ALCS MVP.

Adam Kennedy

Well, he's back. I'm not sure how many marginal fantasy owners even knew he was gone, but now he's back. And Figgins owners are worried--and maybe they should be. Showing you how much I know, I mentioned earlier that AK wouldn't be the everyday 2B upon his return, but lo and behold, he's started his first 3 games back and Scioscia says "Adam is going to play second base", according to the team's website. He also indicated that Figgins will play regularly--and he only sat 1 of the 3 games, so it appears that DaVanon's PT will suffer the most. Looks like AL owners will have to look elsewhere. Kennedy looks healthy so far despite only being 2-12. He's swiped a bag already but fanned 3 times. Remember he's a career .277 hitter and that's probably a high end.

Mending Wings: Bench is Bunked

Lou Merloni's ankle injury has him out for probably the rest of '05 and greatly disappointed 0.9% of AL owners. The LA Daily News still has Macier Izturis about 3 weeks out and Josh Paul got his thumb whacked by a Wilson Valdez throw trying to break up a double play. Sure, these are marginal players (at best), but it means top catching prospect Jeff Mathis could get the call (though he's battling a thigh bruise). It also means that Figgins owners have less to worry about in regard to Scioscia trying to get the warmers some PT--he'll be leaning heavily on the regulars for the immediate future. Bengie Molina should be back next week, as the Press Enterprise reports that his recovery is past the "embryonic stage" (I think the intrepid reporter was trying to impress his editor).

Around the Rotation

Bartolo Colon's ankle should be okay after twisting it jumping for a chopper in his last start. Eye it, but he's probably 100%. Jarrod Washburn experienced his first back spasms of the season the day after his start on Monday, says the LA Times. Watch him too, but again, he's most likely OK. John Lackey looked solid against Seattle Tuesday. I'd say if he keeps the walks down like that, you'll see him start to put it together. His overall ERA is 4.73, but it's 1.59 in his last 3 starts. He's still cake to get in mixed leagues and even only 96% in AL leagues. If you're an AL owner looking for pitching, you should own him. Kelvim Escobar has 14 K in 13 IP--do the math. He's owned, but it would still be relatively easy to snatch him for a bigger "name" (think Mike Mussina).

Angels Are Flying

This really isn't a surprise, but the Halos lead the AL in stolen bases and stolen base attempts. Mike Scioscia has averaged 172 SB attempts a season over his first 5 years with the skipper's cap. Between that and having weapons like Figgins, Erstad, DaVanon, and even Vlad and Finley, you can be sure that his 35 attempts thus far will be followed by a whole lot more. Even slugger Dallas McPherson has attempted to swipe a bag three times. Of course, that does mean that the Angels may run themselves out of a few runs--as they did this past week getting 3 outs on the basepaths in one game--but they'll also manufacture some extra runs that a more passive style wouldn't allow. Remember that when considering acquiring a Halo hitter with marginal or good speed.

Fun With the Abacus

Much has been made (myself included) that this Angel team, just like 2004, is lacking in home run power. It appears that's misleading. The Halos don't fall in the bottom of the AL as far as AB/HR is concerned. They're 8th. That's not bad. It's not like they're just hitting singles either. Only TEX, BOS, and BAL (all very good lineups) have more extra base hits. They also avoid the rally killer. Only KC has hit into fewer double plays--and that's mostly because they don't get many baserunners on to double off in the first place. The Halos have only had 9 ABs in '05 with the bases juiced. They're 2-9--both hits singles. Finally, here's more proof that Dallas McPherson needs time to adjust to the major league level, especially mentally. From the 7th inning on, he's 0-13 with 8 Ks.

On Deck

I am very interested to see these Detroit Tigers close up. Angels fans will get the chance in a 3 game series beginning Friday night. They'll also see Tiger ace Jeremy Bonderman. He's solid and he'll square off against Colon. Both pitchers are 4-2 and, boy, should that Saturday night matchup at the Big A be outstanding. No reason to sit anyone in particular, and AL owners should know that there's a good change Juan Rivera will see some time this weekend. The bad news is that with Bonderman and Mike Maroth with Detroit and C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee of Cleveland, the Halos will see some pitchers that either are pitching well or could turn it around at any start. After that strong road trip, though, the home field should give them a big lift. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

April Fools? West Coast Edition

2005-04-29T19:19:00.000-04:00

I did something earlier this week over on the Reds page that has gotten a significant response from readers. I hadn't really planned to do it here, but since it was well received and sparked debate in NL, then it probably can't hurt to do it in the junior circuit. Besides, it fits all teams and all fantasy players in that we're all familiar with the "late-April freak-out". That includes 1 of 2 things--removing your fist from the ceiling a la Pepsi commercial because you drafted Brian Roberts OR assuring your friends and family that they can remove the suicide watch despite all your "can't miss" draft picks stinking up the place and leaving you in dead last in your league. Currently, I'm in the 2nd group and I just wanna say, "Mom, Dad--I'm gonna be okay."

John Lackey

A year ago, I called Lackey "The Riddler"--so much genius yet we can't explain why he uses it all for evil. Then, Lackey pitched better than his already respectable numbers in the second half of '04. His K/9 shot up to 8.5 with a 9-5 record and 4.36 ERA. 2005, then, looked much brighter. Well, he's yet to make it through the 6th inning in 5 starts and although he's striking batters out, he's walked 2 or more in 4 of the 5. He's also averaged 103 pitches in those starts, showing terrible economy there. I said just last week that Lackey's problem is primarily in his head, and last night was a small step forward, winning at The Stadium. He's FOOLING you. History says he'll get the walks down and start pitching better. Start him in good matchups, and don't give up yet.

Jarrod Washburn

Wash has been a tale of 2 starters so far this year. Starts 1-3-5: 1-0, 0.42 ERA, 17 K in 21.2 IP. Starts 2-4: No decisions, 9.58 ERA in 10.1 IP. If Lackey is The Riddler, then Washburn should definitely be cast as Two-Face. Who can you expect the rest of the season? I've said many times the risk with Wash is all your own and I wouldn't roster him. On the bright side, I do think Wash's WHIP will go down--he's not walking many hitters (7 in 32 IP) and his opponents are getting some extra hits to drop in (35% hit rate). What's interesting to note about his inconsistency is that his number of good starts heave remained steady (about 2 in 5), but his terrible starts have increased the last 3 years (up to 1 in 5 in '04). That means his April is probably FOOLS GOLD. At your own risk.

Steve Finley

One of 2 big offensive additions this year, Finley has managed a whopping .165 AVG through April. He was asked a couple of weeks ago by a LA reporter what would bring him out of his current slump and he replied, "May." He may be right. Since 2002, he's a .229 hitter in April. May? .309. June? .349. Finley's start is definitely FOOLING you. His 19% hit rate tells you that alone. His '02-'04 average was 29%, which would raise his AVG dramatically. He's also making contact almost 90% of the time, and it's hard to slump for long when you're consistently putting the ball in play. Steve will hit 20+ bombs for a much better average and in the 5 or 6 hole probably drive in close to or more than 100 runs. He's still pretty universally owned, but now's the time for a cheap trade.

Garret Anderson

There are a lot of things to not like about 2005 for Anderson. He's walked twice in a month (although admittedly he's never walked very much), getting the free pass in only 2% of his ABs. His BB/K is the lowest of his career. He's not hitting for much power and it doesn’t look like his bat is very live. I'm not surprised at all at his 2 HR total. A lot of people e-mailed me before Opening Day asking whether we'd see the GA of old and I told them I thought we would. I may have been wrong. Yes, he's still hitting.300, but it sure doesn't appear as if the power has come back to his back since his injury last year. His .433 SLG is a mark we haven't seen since 1997. I hate to say it, but GA's start may not be fooling you. It may just be BITTER REALITY.

Around the Halo

Way too early to proclaim "I told you so", but did Kelvim Escobar look solid in his first start or what? I know guys who'd still deal him--you'd do well to identify them now. They won't deal him 4 weeks from now--trust me. Adam Kennedy is tearing up AAA. How's a .538 AVG with 2 SB sound after 3 games? Yeah, it's AAA, but as soon as he's got his wind, he'll be back and it looks like he's 100%. That's a good sign--especially since he's got to prove that he's better than Figgins now. Bengie Molina should also be back fairly soon. His start was notable and I'd expect it to continue when he returns as long as the injury doesn't linger. Macier Izturis is gone for 4-6 weeks but won't need surgery. You AL owners can waive his anemic offense now. That's leaves 3B all to D-Mac.

Which begs the question--how will Dallas McPherson do with all the pressure of having to fill the spot in the lineup, fly or flop, with minimal experience on a team that figures to win the division? I'll take an in-depth look at McPherson next time. A lot of owners are expecting big things from him (and they should), but is 2005 too early? It shouldn't have been a surprise that A-Rod tagged Bartolo Colon for 3 bombs and 10 RBI on Tuesday. Prior to that, he was hitting .378 with 3 HR and 5 RBI off him anyway. It was good to win 2 of 3 at the Stadium, regardless of how old the Yankee lineup is. Not new though. The Angels are 8-4 there the last 3 years. Finally, the Press Enterprise logged the bullpen ERA at 0.91 the last 39.2 IP. That's just pure. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Boy, I'm Just a Tease

2005-04-22T17:27:00.000-04:00

Two columns ago, I finished with a warning that K-Rod may actually have a chink in his armor that was going unnoticed. I promised you I'd fill you in on that last time--and then proceeded to forget all about it. In my defense, until the past 2-gamer with the Tribe, he hadn't had much work to assess. Now, with 7 IP, 11 K, 0 BB, 3 saves, and a win, it seems foolish to try and poke holes in what he's doing--because it's obviously working. I will say this though--the chink I mentioned was that his slider, at least early on in the year (and in the spring), had lost 4-6 MPH of velocity, which is cause for concern because that's his best pitch. However, it's still breaking like someone in the first base dugout has it on a string--in a word, megafilthy. So, watch it, but K-Rod's fine.

The Season Premiere of "Mending Wings"

In the first episode of the season, Kelvim Escobar completes his minor-league rehab stint and is all set to make his season debut on Sunday Night Baseball against the Elephant Men. Oakland's O has been pretty anemic so far, scoring the fewest runs in the AL, but this is Kelvim's first start, so he's likely to be at least a little rusty. The good news is that he's had enough rehab work to not worry about a pitch count. Also, Adam Kennedy is prepping to start his minor league rehab as well. He'll do that at AAA Salt Lake and according to the team site, Scioscia mentioned that May 6 was the target date for his return. Figgins owners shouldn't worry--AK's return only makes the Halos deeper. Lastly, Bengie Molina is still shooting to return on May 3 when he's eligible.

The Little Man Cometh…Quietly

Chone Figgins is hitting .237. His OBP is .277. His walked only 4 times versus 13 whiffs. Does anyone smell something? Maybe, but Figgs is still getting it done. He's hit safely in 11 of 16 games this year, scored 10 times already and hit 2 HRs with 8 RBI. He's also swiped 4 bags, which puts him on pace for 40--most of this out of the 9 hole. I mentioned in a previous column that his .297 AVG from '04 might be a bit above his head, but he's .308 over the last week. Before that, though, he was hitting .256. Expect something around .270 for '05, but know that even though it's quiet and also from the bottom of the order, Chone shouldn't have any trouble passing 30-33 SBs and scoring 70-75 runs. Don't expect him to move from the 9 hole--it seems Cabrera is now the 2nd option there.

DH Controversy? Should There Be?

Jeff DaVanon is hitting a crowd-pleasing .175 right now, which creates a gaping hole in the 2 spot. Granted, he's had bad luck (21% hit rate), but even his normal H% would only produce a .250 AVG. Juan Rivera has 12 less ABs but a .250 AVG. Neither guy's performance screams, "Play Me!", but Rivera can hit for a better AVG. He makes better contact and even hits righties better than DaVanon, who is getting the ABs against RHP. DaVanon, however, has a lot more speed, will walk more, and probably has a little more power as well. Who plays? Maybe go with a different sort of platoon--play Rivera against the better pitchers and DaVanon against the 4 and 5 guys. Rivera's faced the Unit, Clemens, and Pettite each 1 game and gotten hits off all three. He's 4-7 vs. Carl Pavano.

Around the Rotation

One year ago today, Bartolo Colon got his 3rd win to go to 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA. After that, he went in the tank, only winning 2 more through June and hitting the break with a 6.38 ERA. Don't expect that to happen again. He's pitching way better this time around although some of his numbers are eerily similar (3-1, 2.60). He was absolutely dealing to the Tribe Wednesday night. It was very pretty. It will be hard to get your hands on him, but BC would be an excellent pitcher to target for an early season trade. Find an owner that remembers last year. Jarrod Washburn is officially annoying. Here's how's his 4 starts have gone: good, crap, great, crap. He did K 5 in his latest, which isn't bad, and he's shown early that he can give you a great start, but who knows when that will be?

The LA Times reported Scioscia and pitching coach Bud Black had a little private powwow with John Lackey Monday due to his, er, subpar performance of late. Scioscia expressed confidence in JL, but mentioned, "when he hits a bump in the road, his frustration level rises." I would agree that a large part of Lackey's problems are in his head, but it's hard to ignore the 4 walks in each of his first 2 starts. It was also hard to ignore his third start, when he didn't walk anyone, but every mistake pitch he threw ended up right in the middle of the plate, begging to be crushed. Ten hits and 7 ER later, he was headed to the showers again. I'd bench Lackey for now if you have that luxury, but I'm going to stand by my previous higher hopes for him. This head game is one he can win.

D-Mac is Back…And a New E-Mail!

Dallas McPherson got the call up when Bengie Molina hit the DL, but it appears he may not have had enough time at Salt Lake to sort things out after his back injury. He was in a bit of a hot streak there, but since returning to the Halos, he's 1-10 with 6 K. Yikes. Exercise patience with McPherson. He's obviously quite rusty. Finally, in preparation for taking the Nestea plunge of marriage in just 29 days now (tick, tick, tick), I'm setting up a new e-mail address for you. We go from "InsidetheHalo" to just ITH@insightbb.com. You can reach me there now. Response time could be just a hair slower because while I've moved my computer in with my bride-to-be, I won't follow until after the nuptials. Rest assured, though, I'll answer ASAP. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Parity, Parity, Parity

2005-04-14T19:16:00.000-04:00

Nine games in and first place in AL West is 5-4. Last place is 4-5. This is going to be one of the most intriguing divisions in baseball this season, where the slightest margin of error could make all the difference. Baseball, as a whole, in my mind, is the parity king of professional sports (more on that later). The Halos are alone in 1st for now, but the other 3 teams sure are crowding the plate. The Angels and Rangers have already logged 2 super series and I'm just going to forget losing 2 of 3 at home to the Royals for now. Gonna just gloss right over that. Right now, we're gonna look at the rotation, a little injury news (all of it good in fact), and other miscellany.

Head, Shoulders, Knees, and Toes

Vlad DHed on Wednesday after getting popped in the knee with a catcher's throw on a stolen base. With the day off today and the knee feeling much better, he'll be A-OK for Friday. Kelvim Escobar threw a bullpen session on Monday and is scheduled Thursday for the Class A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (another cool minor league name, by the way). His elbow should be ready to go 4/19 in Seattle if there aren't any more setbacks. Dallas McPherson is hitting .238 at AAA Salt Lake, so while he's technically capable of being called up, don't expect that until he can show he's ready. For those of you who drafted him, he's becoming a higher risk proposition daily. No, Quinlan/Izturis/Merloni isn't the solution the Halos want at 3B, but Dallas will have to show he's up to speed first.

Worried About BD?

I was too. (Did that just sound like a commercial for some embarrassing disease?) Anyway, like many of you, I drafted Brendan Donnelly on a one or more (it's hard to keep track) of my teams and I'm less than satisfied with my return thus far. It seems as if every time he hits the hill, he's giving up runs. That's because he has in 3 of his 4 outings. Bail? No. While the 7.94 ERA and 1.76 WHIP are hideous, his K/9 was 12.0 in '04 and has been at 9.6 or higher the last 3 seasons. His K/BB was a career high 3.7 last year. He also got hit softer than ever before (opponents' LD% was only 16). He had a good spring too--all signs pointing to the fact that he'll soon rebound and be the ERA, WHIP, and holds hound that he's been in the past. Rest easy.

He's Not a Cookie

Chone Figgins is off to an unfavorable start as well. He's hitting south of .200 and--has a grand total of zero stolen bases? You're excused if you're asking, "I thought I paid for a speedster here." Well, the last two tilts in Texas show that Figgs is coming around. 5 runs scored, 3-7, and 2 BB, and the OBP shoots up almost 100 points. If he stays near the bottom of the order, it's possible he won't score as many runs as his 83 total last year. But the SBs are just a matter of time. Scioscia is a running manager and led the AL last year by calling 189 SB attempts. He's called at least 168 every year since 2001, so you can be sure Figgins will run plenty. The one possible thing you might not see return is the .296 AVG. Something around .280 might be more on target.

Around the Rotation

If you're worried that Bartolo's Colon is gonna stink again in the first half, don't panic yet. He's looked better than his numbers in the first 2 starts. Who does leave cause for concern is John Lackey, who's posted 8 BB in 9.2 IP. He doesn't usually pitch well in Texas, though. Watch those walks very closely--he normally has good control. Paul Byrd hasn't been as bad as his numbers suggest, but mediocre is the best I can say about him. Only spot start him in very favorable circumstances for now. Just like always, Jarrod Washburn in maddeningly inconsistent. One great start, one spine-chillingly awful one. The risk is all yours. And about that Escobar rehab start. The Halos must feel pretty good about him--fill-in starter Kevin Gregg threw 1.2 innings of relief Wednesday night.

Elephants, Sailors, and the Tribe

They're up next for the Halos. The A's series (as always) will be entertaining. The Angels won't see either of the youngins (Haren and Blanton) for Oakland. Zito and Harden, though, await. Saarloos is slated for Sunday--he's one of those borderline soft-tossers that nibble, nibble, nibble. If the Angels are patient, they should rake. They aren't necessarily known for patience though. Then it's back home for mini 2-gamers with Seattle and Cleveland. Game 1 of the Seattle series will probably see the Angels facing ex-Halo Aaron Sele. That will be fun (but probably not for Sele). Watch and enjoy. To watch and enjoy the continuing action on this page, click the E-mail Notification button (top right) to be informed as soon as a new column has arrived (shameless self-promotion over).

Who Has Competitive Balance?

I always hear about the NBA and NFL and their competitive balance because of their salary cap and blah, blah, blah. I hear about how some of baseball's teams are finished before the season starts. That may be a little true, but I noticed something recently--since the beginning of 1986, only 5 NBA teams have won championships. Four of those have repeated (only San Antonio didn't)! The NFL has had 11 different champs, but there are 6 teams with 2 or more and again 4 teams have repeated. Major League Baseball, the sport with no competitive balance (so they say), has crowned 12 different champions in that span and only the mighty Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays have been champs 2 years in a row. Now, who has competitive balance? That's right. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Down With Chuck Norris and His Texas Rangers!

2005-04-08T17:56:00.000-04:00

What an opening series in Anaheim. All one-run games! Two won in a final at-bat! One in extra innings! Are you kidding me? Are you serious? (Finished channeling Dick Vitale now). We have 159 more of these to go? Are you absolutely super-charged for this season or do you need your very own Total Gym to get worked up about it (Chuck and Christie Brinkley not included). The Angels took the series from the guys in blue and after watching these games and also keeping tabs on Oakland and Seattle, it shocks me that someone will actually have to finish 4th in this division (probably Seattle). Nonetheless, the AL West is packed with good teams and should be fun times and high drama all season long. Even just 3 games in, there's already a lot to talk about.

Night and Day

Perhaps the freshest thing on Angel fan's minds is the absolute meltdown by John Lackey in Thursday's series finale. Innings 1-4: 0 hits, 4 K, 1 BB. Inning 5: 2/3 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 ER, 2 wild pitches. Lackey was disturbed after Richard Hidalgo broke up the no-hitter, but the tank job truly began when rookie Adrian Gonzalez fought out a walk in a 15 pitch AB. JL was totally flustered to lose him, and it showed the rest of his outing. He clearly has the potential to be an excellent pitcher for the Angels in '05 (Texas is not an easy lineup to master, even on the road), but he'll have to develop some kind of mental game to do it. I've said it many times before--Lackey has the skills to be a very good pitcher for your roster and for the Angels. His head will determine his success in '05.

Escobar/McPherson Update

Noticeably absent in the first series were two Angels who were supposed to have a key part in the Angels lineup early on. Kelvim Escobar, slotted for the #2 hole in preseason, may throw a bullpen session on Friday. If that goes well, he'll throw a minor league start late next week. The elbow problem still appears to be minor, and depending on how Kevin Gregg does in his starts, the extra precaution by not rushing him back won't hurt the team too much. Dallas McPherson played in AAA Salt Lake's Opening Night game last night, going 0-3 with a sac fly RBI. He still appears slated for a late April return. Time (as well as AAA performance) will tell. Hopefully, Robb Quinlan's early struggles (1-9) won't force the Halos to rush him back (that seems highly unlikely).

Who's Got the Power?

Don't expect to hear Snap's "The Power" on the sound system during any pre-game activities at Angel Stadium any time soon because the Angels don't have much. The team SLG has gone from 6th in AL during the '02 championship season, to 9th in '03, and 10th in '04. So far this year (although an extremely small sample), the Halos SLG% is .374. Outside of Vlad, it is very believable that no one on the roster will post 25+ HRs, although certainly Anderson, Finley, and McPherson (should he return soon) all have a legitimate shot. The good news is that 2 of the last 3 seasons the Halos have either led or tied for the lead in AL AVG. With bats like Guerrero, Anderson, Finley, Figgins, Erstad, and Bengie Molina in the lineup regularly, they could very well accomplish that feat again.

Quote of the Week

So many of sport's interviews are bland, over-serious, and full of clichés that have no intention of giving a straight answer to the question. I see too few guys who are willing to have a little fun from time to time in an interview. Not that we need 30 teams full of Jose Limas, but it was refreshing to hear Paul Byrd's joke when asked if facing his former team (Kansas City Royals) meant anything extra: "The fact that I'm facing Kansas City is no big deal because all those guys are dumb," he said, according to the team website. With visions of Ron Burgundy dancing in my head, I couldn't help but laugh. Thank you for a moment of levity so early in the year, Paul. By the way, it wouldn't have been dumb at all to nab him for a spot start on your roster for Thursday's game.

Postseason Predictions

Not because you asked for them (you didn't), but because everyone with a computer and a platform will offer them to you, I now present my Official 2005 Postseason Predictions.

AL East: Yankees.
AL Central: Indians.
AL West: Angels.
AL Wild Card: Red Sox.

NL East: Braves.
NL Central: Cardinals.
NL West: Padres.
NL Wild Card: Phillies.

ALCS: Angels over Yankees.
NLCS: Cardinals over Braves.

World Series: Angels over Cardinals.

Now--copy and paste that into a form of your own and save for correspondent ridicule in November. You're welcome.

Royally Ready for Rough Roadie

Three against the hapless Royals at home should be a series win, if not sweep. Any Angel starter in this series (Byrd, Gregg, Colon) is a good bet. The Rangers series that follows in Arlington could be much rougher. Chuck's boys were 51-30 at the newly-monikered Ameriquest Field last year. Only 4 teams won more at home and 2 of those were in the World Series. A third was the A's, whom the Angels will face in a 3-game set in Oakland following the Ranger series. Tough first roadie. Also, with 3 solid IP, 3 K, and only 1 hit allowed thus far, it has become clear already that K-Rod may have a chink in his armor. I'll tell you about that next time and whether it means you should put him on the block. Enjoy the games, folks--baseball is finally here. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Draft/Season Preview Vol. 4

2005-04-01T02:09:00.000-05:00

We’ve looked at the infield, outfield, and the starting rotation (Vols. 1-3). Your final edition of the Preview will take a gander at the bullpen. GM Danny Boy dismantled a pen that was 1 of only 2 that finished with a 5.00+ ERA in the NL. Only 3 faces from last year’s team remain--closer Danny Graves, youngin’ Ryan Wagner, and the fantasy-inconsequential Joe Valentine. We’ll look at Graves, Wagner, and a few new faces to see if the Reds new pen can break 5.00 or if it will be more of the same. At press time (listen to me sound like a big-timey writer), there are still some decisions to be made concerning the pen, but those shouldn’t alter the analysis much. As you know, the last guy in the pen rarely has any effect on the fantasy game--unless he murders the closer or something.

Danny Graves

Speaking of closers, Danny Graves isn't being stalked and neither is his job. Of course, that's because there's been no one with the stuff to take it from him--which is sad because Graves hasn't been closer material since he was handed the job. Even with 41 saves in '04, he only fanned 5.3 per 9, which would've done him in if his control wasn't absolutely pinpoint. His K/9 hasn't been over 5.5 in the last 5 years. He throws a lot of groundballs, which is good at GABP, but the last 2 seasons he's still been tagged for 1.6 HR/9. There's very little to like about Graves, but as long as his control stays where it is (1.7 BB/9), he'll appear serviceable. BOTTOM LINE: Take him in the last batch of closers, knowing that at least you have a closer with job security.

Ryan Wagner

If anyone in this group has the ability to unseat Graves, it's Wagner. He's had an excellent spring (1.38 ERA, 13 IP, 10 K, 3 BB) and he's got excellent stuff when he's on. Therein lies the problem, though--he's only 22 this year and he's way too inconsistent at this point in his young career to get any kind of read. In 2004, he posted a gut-wrenching 5.0 BB/9, ended up in AAA for most of the season, and folks who were proclaiming "Closer in '05!" went running for cover. The good news is that he did improve somewhat in the 2nd half and appears to have a better mental approach this season. BOTTOM LINE: The talent is there. But I'm not sure he's through his growing pains yet. He's a good speculative pick, but watch for consistency before placing too many eggs in his basket.

Kent Mercker/David Weathers/Ben Weber

The Reds forked over about 6 million this year to bring these 3 in, and for your fantasy roster, only 1 seems to be of any value whatsoever. Weathers has a pretty good K-rate, but he's always walked too many and that probably won't change this year. The Human Butter Churn (Weber) could prove to be the worst signing the Reds made this offseason after he was basically shelled out of the Anaheim farm system. AVOID. Mercker, though, shows a little bit of promise, even at 37. The bad news is that the last 2 seasons he's pitched over his head and been quite lucky. The good news--he shaves a few walks and he could be very effective. He's still extremely hard to hit (207 OBA in '04). Despite the luck, the skills are still there. BOTTOM LINE: Weathers, NO. Weber, DOUBLE NO. Mercker, yes.

Matt Belisle/Joe Valentine

Neither of these guys will add anything should they make the team and with the loser of the rotation scramble among Hudson, Hancock, and Claussen probably ending up in the pen as the long man, there will probably be very little work for them anyway. Belisle just doesn't have major league stuff and Valentine walks way too many people to be effective. Valentine has fanned 7 but also walked 7 this spring, showing no improvement. I've discussed Hancock and Claussen already in Vol. 3 (located now at theredletters.blogspot.com), so I won't repeat myself here. BOTTOM LINE: I make a bold prediction that this is the last copy space I allocate to discuss either Belisle or Valentine this season.

Picking at the Carcass

The last 3 seasons the Reds have finished in the top 3 in the NL for reliever wins. That means when you've got a good offense and the starters are lackluster, an adequate reliever will have a chance to post several vulture wins in a season. This year will probably feature more of the same. The rotation is improved, but with exactly 100 vulture wins out of the pen from '02-'04, pick the right reliever and you could end up with 7-9 extra wins for your team. Targets? Mercker's a good bet, Wagner (provided he keeps the BBs down), or maybe even the rotation loser, be it Hancock, Claussen, or Hudson. BOTTOM LINE: It's up to Miley because it's all about opportunity, but your best bet is probably Mercker.

Am I Missing Something Here?

If you're strictly an Angel fan, there's a good chance you're thinking I've flipped my wig. But no--APRIL FOOLS (yes, it's weak, but I didn't have invisible ink or silly puddy). Your Angels bullpen Preview is over at The Red Letters (plus now you see just how good the Angels have it compared to some other less-fortunate teams). Your next regularly-scheduled column will be the first of the regular season, with the play on the field dictating the content (although you can expect the obligatory postseason predictions in there somewhere). I'm looking forward to being with you for a 2nd season covering the Angels. Thanks for all your e-mails (the kind ones anyway); keep 'em coming and I'll do my best to get back to you in a timely fashion. There's only one thing left to say. PLAY BALL!

Draft/Season Preview Vol. 3

2005-03-29T00:01:00.000-05:00

Mike Scioscia calls his starting rotation "championship-caliber" this season, according to the team website, and I would have to agree with him. No, they don't have any huge names (a huge ace, maybe, but his name isn't huge), but this rotation certainly has the talent to lead the Halos to a postseason run at the World Series. Spring (at least in baseball terms) is almost finished, and in a week we'll all be treating ourselves to games that actually count. But before you get too excited and begin doing cartwheels near your computer screen, let's take a look at this championship-caliber rotation since the beginning order is set now. Which of these guys can help you? Who needs a short leash? Volumes 1 & 2 (IF & OF) are available at insidethehalo.blogspot.com.

Bartolo Colon

His battery mate Bengie Molina may have dropped 22 pounds over the winter, but I'm not sure BC had the same luck. How big his pitching will be this season is all fantasy owners are concerned with though. He's had a solid spring and his 13-5, 4.07 ERA 2nd half has been well covered by now. I won't mention the numbers from '04's 1st half, because you might run away screaming. Suffice it to say that a lot of his peripherals looked the same on both ends of the season. Fly balls were just leaving at an inordinate pace. His FB% has been over 40 the last 2 years. So, it shouldn't surprise you that they've been his worst in terms of HRs. Bring that down, he's the Colon of old. BOTTOM LINE: Still a frontliner, BC could (and probably will) be undervalued to begin the year.

Jarrod Washburn

Wash is serviceable. That's the most succinct way to put it. I wouldn't want him on my fantasy roster, but the bottom line is he can deliver the occasional good start. Serviceable. He's got solid control, he gets lefties out (except David Ortiz in the ALDS--UPDATE: The ball is still going), and he'll certainly get run support. That's how he started 8-3 in '04 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Here's something--his FB% dropped by 10 in '04. That could be very good news is that trend continues. The rest is no good though. He all finesse with little ability to mow anyone down. He had a solid start this weekend, but he’s so inconsistent you don’t know whether he'll retire 10 in a row or get rocked. BOTTOM LINE: I wouldn't want him unless I was in a really bad pinch. Too unpredictable.

John Lackey

John Lackey should be applauded. And he was--for a half season. Remember 2002, when the Angels won the Series, and was key in the drive for the championship? Remember Game 7? The honeymoon's over for Lackey. Another rookie that year (one Francisco Rodriguez) hit the ground running, so he's been consistently applauded while Lackey is generally maligned--maligned to a smart owner's benefit. Lackey is just 26. He's got the tools and the talent. He's just taking longer to mature. 2005 may see a 2nd honeymoon for JL. His K/9 went up to 8.5 in the 2nd half last year. From July on, he had 2 bad starts. BOTTOM LINE: I wouldn't be the least bit shy about drafting Lackey in the as a 2 or 3 in your rotation. Here's a personal stat for you--4 drafts, 3 Lackeys for me.

Paul Byrd

Byrd a finesse guy who got the Leo Mazzone Extreme Makeover last year, so that puts him on the radar for most owners. But he's only had 114 IP since Tommy John surgery in 2003. What's the '05 forecast? Well, bottom line is that he has absolutely fabulous control. If you want to get on against Byrd, you gonna have to hit your way there. The problem is many folks do--especially the lefties. They hit .329 against him last year. The redeemer was the .219 against righties. PB won't fan a lot, but if he can keep it around 6.0 K/9 and keep the ball on the ground more (which he's trying to do by adding a sinker), he could have a successful season. BOTTOM LINE: I would put him on the end of a rotation--he'll get run support and I can't see him hurting you.

Kelvim Escobar

He’s in the 5 hole only until the Halos can work him further up in the rotation. He had a slow start this spring with a sore shoulder. That's fine now. He's soon be #2, but let me say this--Kelvim Escobar is getting ready to emerge. Emerge sounds dramatic, I know, but it's the truth. You're looking at an 8.3 K/9 with better-than-ever control, he does the best job in the rotation at keeping the ball in the yard. He's 29, entering great year for a pitchers, his role is defined, he's got a great offense behind him--there's very little to not like. His OBA in '04 was .247. BOTTOM LINE: If you haven't drafted Kelvim Escobar, I'd try and get him while some folks still think he's a "common", as they say in baseball card circles. Kelvim Escobar is about to emerge.

Spring Notes and Vol. 4

A recent pole at the Angels official site asked who should hit leadoff. The fans (with whom I agree) said Figgins overwhelmingly. Scioscia says Erstad. DaVanon will hit 2nd for now at DH. Pick him up for speed and because he's hitting in front of Vlad, GA, and Finley. That brings us to Cabrera at 6. Can you say "truckloads of RBI"? McPherson had 8 ABs in 2 minor league games, 1 hit. Things are good, but Quinlan will probably hit 7 on Opening Day. Molina will be 8 and Figgins will hit 9, which to some might seem like putting the tortoise directly in the hare's path. Better run fast, Bengie. The last issue of the Preview will look at the bullpen. Percival won’t be missed. SIX (!) draftable players there. I'm not kidding. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Draft/Season Preview Vol. 2

2005-03-22T00:01:00.000-05:00

There are plenty of Disney clichés I could use when describing the Angels in the Outfield this season (By the way, did you remember that Academy Award winner Adrien Brody is in that film?), but I'll save you the pain and just start flapping my arms as a signal--a signal these boys can play. That fact most of you know, considering they're all vets and well-established stars (one of which picked up some impressive MVP hardware last season), but the following will provide you with some trends to recognize heading into your draft and also take a look a just how deep this outfield is beyond the starting lineup. If you missed Volume 1, the infield preview is available at Inside the Halo (insidethehalo.blogspot.com). I can be reached, as always, at insidethehalo@insightbb.com.

LF: Garret Anderson

Back pains and durability issues prompted the Halos to get Anderson out of CF (in favor of an older Steve Finley, but that's another story). Garret's played more games in LF than anywhere else and his arthritic back condition is going well--so far, so good. Also, he's certainly a little under the radar this season with the subpar numbers he posted in '04 because of injury. Also good. Everything points to a return to the old GA, who was always a solid 2nd OF. Check. Lately, though, he's been dealing with tendonitis in his left knee, which the Halos are downplaying, but any injury could keep GA from having the dependable stats that you could almost set your watch by. BOTTOM LINE: Everything looks good as long as the health stays strong. Could be quite undervalued at your draft.

CF: Steve Finley

There aren't many 40-year-old CFs that have any value left. Finley is the exception to the rule. Under a new 2-year deal, Steve-O (not that one) is looking to squeeze a couple more years out of his body for the Halos. His contact % was his highest in 5 years, so if his AVG doesn't rise (.271), it certainly won't fall. His stats certainly don't seem like they're from a quadragenarian. Two things to not bid on, however: 36 HR won't happen again. He's playing in a much better pitcher's park and his SLG was actually lower in ‘04 (.490) than his last two, when his HRs were in the 20s. Also, the single digit SBs are probably here to stay, even in Anaheim. After all, he is 40. BOTTOM LINE: Expect HRs in the 20s, but Rs and RBIs could skyrocket, depending on where he hits.

RF: Vladimir Guerrero

Here's the most in-depth analysis you need for Guerrero--draft him whenever possible. Last season's AL MVP is still making great contact despite becoming less patient at the plate (that seems to be an Angel-inherited trait). He's a complete masher who's still in his 20s and the sky is the limit as far as his stats are concerned. He's not had a whole year since his back woes and you can expect the double digit SBs to continue for now, although he won't post Figgins-like numbers in that department. He can help your team in every category and is simply one of the best players in either league. BOTTOM LINE: Capable of being a leader in any Triple Crown category. If he's available, you won't be sorry you called his number.

OF: Jeff DaVanon

Every year, I get mail on DaVanon. "Should I pick him up?" "Can he help me?" It's usually because he's filling in due to injury, and thus, that's been the story of DaVanon's career. What could he do with full time PT? He might steal 40 bags or hit 20 HR, but the problem with that potential is that it's likely to never be tapped in Anaheim. He's behind Finley, Anderson, Guerrero, and when Adam Kennedy is healthy, even Figgins. So Jeff will remain what he's always been--a stopgap, a surge protector, a flash in the pan. If he's getting PT, he'd be a good add for speed, but the likelihood of him seeing 300 ABs is non-existent with overall good Angel health. BOTTOM LINE: His power seems to have waned (.418 SLG in '04), but he's a patient hitter with speed.

OF: Juan Rivera

Rivera went from touted prospect in Pinstripes to baseball wasteland in Montreal and now shows up on the west coast at 26 with potential and a knapsack--and also no starting position. Yet. He could end up as the full-time DH depending on how DaVanon's situation and Kennedy's health. He's got a good bat, but it's been devoid of any outstanding power since his time in the minors. He makes great contact with .300 potential but his inconsistent performance against lefties and righties leaves him still in Enigmaville. With Salmon out for the season, the opportunity is there for him to finally get full-time PT at DH if he breaks through. BOTTOM LINE: He had a great 2nd half and is 26 this season, a great age for breakthrough performances. If he's in the lineup, he's a good gamble.

Spring Notes and Vol. 3

Kevin Gregg has a 2.57 ERA with 10 K and 3 BB in 7 IP this spring. Put this on top of last year's stats and Scioscia's willingness to use him often and it means you should be drafting him as a solid middle reliever. I have--twice. Scot Shields is poised for another excellent season in the pen, but keep an eye on his right shin. His shin splint was rediagnosed as a stress reaction, a step down from stress fracture. That could hurt his value. McPherson is hitting off a tee and could play this week. Still count on Quinlan for Opening Day but Dallas will be in Anaheim soon. Adam Kennedy is progressing lightning fast in his rehab. His could be back by early May, as much as a month early. The rotation is next. Two solid sleepers there. Stay tuned. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Chicken or Egg? Winning or Chemistry?

2005-03-15T17:55:00.000-05:00

The debate may always rage on which begets what, and similarly, it's very easy to cover a team that's good even when you're not getting paid (or is it easier to not get paid when you're covering a good team?). Anyway, one linear statement that is for certain in fantasy baseball is that it's very hard to have a good season if you don't have a good draft. Ask my best friend (who protected Bill Mueller in our keeper league last season) how true that statement is. The only good news for him was that he got the second pick this year. So, today we're sliding in headfirst to the Halo infield in Volume 1 of the Draft/Season Preview to see if there are any Angels that can help your fantasy team (and there are, despite the IF being the weakest part of the team this season).

1B: Darin Erstad

Tina Turner says Erstad is simply the best--if all that concerns you is speed. Better than all the rest. Of course, 1B being traditionally the deep power spot that it is, speed might not be a big factor for you there. DE will probably be the only leadoff 1B in MLB this year. He'll probably also be the only regular 1B that won't have 10+ HRs too. Gone are the '00 days of .355/25/100. Long gone. He's a ground ball machine now. Erstad will get on base and most likely score boatloads of runs with all those huge bats behind him, but it's very tough to take that power drought for any fantasy team at 1B. But he'll also likely run away with the 1B lead for SB. BOTTOM LINE: Erstad can really help you out--but only if you need SB and Rs out of the 1B position. Otherwise, stay clear.

2B: Chone Figgins

Figgins will be the everyday 2B with Adam Kennedy out until late-May and has the potential to take the spot from him full-time by the end of the year. While he's a great add at 2B, his greatest asset is his eligibility to play pretty much everywhere. Add his exceptional speed to that and he becomes a fantasy commodity that most folks clamor for. As with many speedsters, there's little power to speak of and his AVG is boosted by the fact that he's a line drive machine (LD% 25). Watch where he hits this season. If it's 9 or 1, the SBs could be enormous. If it's 2nd, he won't run as much hitting in front of Vlad. In ’04, he had 12 SB hitting 2nd in 288 ABs. But in 329 ABs in other spots, he stole 22 bases. BOTTOM LINE: Top 10 ML (2B), but a speed fireball wherever you need him.

SS: Orlando Cabrera

Cabrera got a lot of attention last season as a sleeper candidate at SS. He wasn't widely known in Montreal, but then ended up with world champion Boston to much acclaim. Now, even though he's still a top 10 or 12 SS, he's probably a little overrated. He does everything well, but nothing exceptionally well. He does make great contact (91%), but doesn't have a lot of power. He'll hit double-digit bombs, but the17 from '03 is probably too much to ask. One interesting part of his game that could thrive under Scioscia is the SB number. 20+ is not a stretch, but again lineup position is key. Don't expect many SBs if he's in a bit of a slump, because he doesn't walk much. BOTTOM LINE: Considering last year's sub-par 1st half, his numbers could rebound nicely. Top 10 ML, top 5 AL.

3B: Dallas McPherson/Robb Quinlan

Every year there are some rookies that garner so much attention and expectation that it seems that they are coveted more than many of the proven vets who are available in the draft. Dallas McPherson is one of those rookies this year. I'm never one to put a lot of stock into rookies, and the case is the same here. McPherson has prodigious power, there's no denying that. This is a guy who, with the amount of PT he's likely to get, could very easily jack 30 over the fence in his first season with room to grow. Easily. He could also easily hit .240. Also, on the negative, he's been sidelined with a back problem. Back problems have a terrible tendency to linger. Ask Trot Nixon. Ask Jay Gibbons. I'm not saying 2005 is ruined, but expectations must be tempered somewhat.

BOTTOM LINE: Dallas is only 24 this year, and one day he'll probably be an All-Star, but don't put him higher than ML top 12-15 for now. So who could benefit if he stays hurt? Robb Quinlan for starters. He can certainly hit for a higher average right now, evidenced by his .413 2nd half (albeit in a mere 92 ABs before getting injured). Obviously, .413 is over his head, but he has the possibility of being a nice surprise if he gets serious PT (note that I said "surprise" not "sleeper" to keep expectations in check). BOTTOM LINE: He makes good contact and has decent power, but drafting not knowing his level of PT (which, at this point, is impossible), would be a mistake. Keep him on your radar and pick him up as a possible .280/17-20 HR potential full-time.

C: The Brothers Molina

This is the one spot on the roster that the Halos have very little that can help you. The good news for fans of "real" baseball is that Jeff Mathis is on the way and will be the backstop within the next 2 years. The present fantasy state of the squatting half of the battery isn't nearly as nice. Bengie is definitely the better of the 2 and will receive the most PT. But he's very injury-prone; he's been limited to 5 ABs this spring with calf problems (the muscle, not the animal). He'll make contact (Ks, BBs are always low), but he's never slugged over .443 and he's slower than me, so he's got to find the gaps. His brother, Jose, posted decent numbers last year, but his 0.19 BB/K ratio tells you all you need to know about him. The OF's up next. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Don't Believe the Hype

2005-03-08T19:35:00.000-05:00

I don’t know if you looked outside your window yesterday (or on ESPN), but there's baseball being played, people. That means today is a good day. But that's not the only reason I'm happy. There's another huge reason I'm happy. In today's world of "find the next Michael", "find the next Tiger", and even now "find the next LeBron", the media machine is set to all-hype-all-the-time. Jered Weaver was getting some of that treatment after last year's College World Series. He was viewed as a no-brainer top pick, yet ten teams passed on him simply because they feared his agent's demands (one Scott Boras) would be too much. Now an eleventh team has passed--the team that drafted him--the Angels. And I'm standing up and saluting them for doing it.

Yeah, he went 14-4 with a 120 K in 133.1 IP, not to mention a 7.2 K/BB ratio and, oh yeah, a 1.96 ERA in 2003. Yes, he even improved in '04 with a 15-1 mark, 213 more K in only 144 IP, a 10.1 K/BB ratio, and an even lower 1.62 ERA. Okay. Wow. Very solid. But there are a lot of pitchers who post great numbers in college and never make it in the bigs. All pitchers (as fantasy players well know) are a crap shoot, even the established ones at times. This is unproven talent no matter how you look at it, and the Angels weren’t willing to overpay no matter how good Weaver may seem. Scioscia told MLB.com that Weaver will have a good career, it just won't be with us. He's right. Weaver will probably be very good. But he doesn't deserve the 5 year, 10.5 million he was asking for.

Are you kidding me? 5 yr/10.5M? Boras eventually dropped it to 8 after he saw the Angels were basically telling him to go fly a kite, but that was as low as he would go. The Angels’ deadline to get a deal done passed, and they swiped the deal off the table. Rightly so. This isn't a team that acted as if money is much of a factor lately, but to give Weaver--who's never pitched a professional inning in his life--more than Shields, Donnelly, K-Rod, Gregg, and Lackey made combined last season in his first season would've been very foolish. That's almost the whole bullpen and one starter. It's very encouraging to see a team be fiscally sane even if they are among the higher payrolled clubs. Congrats to Stoneman and Co. Yes, Weaver would've been a great addition, but not at this price.

So, what's the fallout from this? Very little, for now. I know Boras can really be unreasonable to deal with, but I place this on the shoulders of Weaver. He's never played a day and he's already making himself out to be a prima donna. Not only that, but it he's showing me that he got a lot more maturing to do in his head before he'll be able to handle the responsibility of being a Major League player. You hear guys like me all the time say he's doing a disservice to the game by not appreciating the opportunity in front of him. I’m not saying that. I don't know Weaver. What he's doing is showing very little faith in his future performance by trying to get all the money he can now. Good luck elsewhere, Jered, but I've gotta be honest--I'm relieved it's over.

To the Diamond!

The Angels have four spring training games in the books now and Casey Kotchman has 7 RBI in 10 AB. There isn't a spot for him right now, but don't tell me that Darin Erstad isn't sweating just a little more than normal in the Arizona sun. Colon and Byrd made it through there first starts of the spring with no fireworks, although Colon did walk 2 and give up a run before getting the win. Lackey was absolutely rocked on his first trip to the mound, but it all means very little this early in the going. Currently, Cabrera, McPherson, and Jose Molina are all nursing minor injuries, but they're not worth picking up the phone and crying to your mother (maybe I'm the only one who does that when I have to DL a player).

Let's Get It Started?

The Halos got rid of their perennial primary leadoff option in the offseason by non-tendering David Eckstein, who eventually landed in St. Louis. Who'll be the black-eyed pea of the '05 club? No guarantees, but it may be Darin Erstad. Erstad has 91 ABs in the 1 hole the last 3 seasons, sporting a .231 AVG, but that's a pretty small sample to go with. He's got decent speed for that spot, but he's a much better 2 hitter, with what he's able to with the bat. Hitting Figgins in the top spot seems pretty obvious to me, with his .350 OBP and blazing speed, but for some reason Chone can't ever seem to get knighted or whatever it is you have to get to get legitimized in the bigs. I'd call 17 3B and 34 SB pretty legit though. If you're looking for something to watch early, it could be this.

Draft Guide is Percolating Onto Paper

It wasn’t as fast as I'd hoped, but I'm trying a different approach this year. I think it's better suited your needs, less conjecture and more meat and potatoes. Look for that soon (I better get it done soon--my first draft is this Saturday). If you've got any old Johnny Mathis CDs, break them out and fire up "It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year". You can even make up your own lyrics about singing at the 7th inning stretch when he starts crooning about caroling in the snow. You won't even notice it's a Christmas song (okay, I'm done with that, we got way off track). Enjoy the baseball, people, but remember--if someone ever offers you 5 million dollars to do something you've never done professionally (unless it's illegal), take it. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

That's Right…Streeeeeeeeeetch!

2005-02-24T00:26:00.000-05:00

The Halos completed their first team workout on Tuesday and the biggest news of the day was really that no one pulled anything doing hurdle stretches. The Angels camp, at least for now, seems as if it may be one of the quietest of Spring Training this season. Of course, with basically the entire lineup, rotation, and bullpen set, the only thing to talk about is the debate over the name change. I've already said my piece on that and for now, I'm done with that like Barry Bonds wants to be done with RoidGate. So is there any buzz at all at Angel camp? Well, you know when you see entire pieces completely on the subject of a player's mood, there's very little to talk about. The biggest question I would have is what does Bartolo Colon weigh and is it higher than Vlad's batting average?

Draft Guide is a Brewin'

Yes, I realize the last thing you need is another draft guide. It seems that just about everyone with a keyboard and a baseball cap has their own in today's market, but that's part of what I do here on my little page for ESPN and in my own little world at ITH (insidethehalo.blogspot.com). I realize that some of you like to draft the minute someone picks up a glove at Spring Training, so I'll be getting that out to you sooner rather than later, making updated changes as needed. If there's anything you need to know that I don't answer in the draft guide or something you'd like to see in it, let me know at insidethehalo@insightbb.com.

Robb Quinlan is a Big Q

Quinlan's .344/.401/.525 season before injuring his tearing an oblique muscle in August has been largely forgotten by most. So the question that should be on more fantasy player's minds is, "Can he do something like that again?" The answer, of course, is murky. Dallas McPherson looks prepped to be the Opening Day 3B and Quinlan may not even get the ABs to prove he can repeat last year's hot streak. Even worse, it was a small sample size and it's possible a guy like Q just got hot. What's interesting is that he's had his time in the minors to develop and he's at peak age to put up some solid numbers if he's ever going to do so. I'd keep an eye on Q during Spring Training--better safe than sorry. The pub around McPherson may overshadow any shot he has though.

The New Byrd

Last year in Atlanta, Paul Byrd received the popular Leo Mazzone Extreme Makeover that has resurrected so many broken down pitchers. For '05, Byrd has switched leagues and coasts and in the 5 hole, those looking for a steal are wondering if he can do the same in Anaheim, er, LA--whatever. Well, Byrd has a flyball tendency, but he came to the right place for that, as Angel Stadium will suppress that weakness somewhat. He has great control, but he'll have to keep his K/9 above 6 (6.1 is '04) to remain enough of a K threat to really make some noise. He's not had much success at all against lefties for the last several years, and he's at an age where stats like his start to head south, which from where he is, there's not much room on the ledge. High risk, but possible middling reward.

Post-President's Day Update for Kennedy

Adam is going to be with the Angels for Spring Training and he'll be resuming defensive drills very soon. The bad news for those planning to slide him in at 2B on their roster is that he'll likely not be available until late May at best. That date, at least for now, is still kind a dart throw and is certainly being left open for change. The good news is that Chone Figgins will have an everyday spot (hallelujah) and will probably produce better fantasy dollars than AK would anyway. The bad news is that Figgins is no longer a sleeper and getting your hands on him will be much harder than it was at this time last year.

Run, Bartolo, Run!

Have you seen the commercial where the guy weighs himself at 249, dons his headphones, takes off for a quick jaunt around the weight room, heads directly back to the scales, and is dismayed to find he still weighs 249? Well, I'm beginning to think that that guy has a better cardio plan that our man Bartolo Colon. From the "Picture is Worth A 1000 Words" Department, it appears as if BC did little to work on that trouble area around his waist that is beginning to take other parts of his body, like his new second chin. I'll be the first to tell you that Colon had a run of bad luck last season, but I don’t think Kamala of classic WWF fame would've made a good mound ace no matter what kind of hose he had. The Halo ace is dangerously close to needing to change his name to Blobolo.

Late Arrivals

Like several players living in the Carribean area, Kendry Morales and Juan Rivera have had trouble getting the passports/visas to gain entry to the US. They have yet to report to camp, but the good news is that the team expects both of them to be with the team by the weekend. Hopefully that will be the case and this Angel camp will continue quietly. After all, no news is good news, right? For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

The Calm Before the Storm

2005-02-13T23:24:00.000-05:00

Four days until we'll see guys like Jarrod Washburn, Kelvim Escobar, Paul Byrd, Jose Molina, K-Rod and our favorite heavy (cough) hitters (Bengie Molina), and, er, pitchers (like Bartolo Colon) arrive at Spring Training 2005. It's been a pretty slow news cycle (or three) for the Halos of late, at least concerning things on the field. Yes, the long bridal name-train of Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will still follow the Halos around for the foreseeable future. Now, it's up to the boys on the field to not be a bridesmaid. Trains look okay on brides. Bridesmaids? No.

Saves and Whammies

We're fantasy baseball people, right? We love stats, right (most of us more than is healthy)? I think the folks at MLB.com have caught a bit of the fever, and it apparently gets really when contracted by those who basically have no idea what they're talking about. Take the survey on the official Halos homepage, for instance. Here's the question: How many saves will closer Francisco Rodriguez record in 2005? Your choices are: less than 35, 35-40, 41-45, 46-50, more than 50. I participated just to see the responses. Over 9000 people have voted in this thing. There are 9000 people (minus 1--me) who think they have a clue how many games K-Rod will save! You know what though--the onus really isn't theirs though. It's on the misguided folks who posed the question.

Let's put it like this--there's no way to know how many games he'll save. Predicting saves boldly is like screaming "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" on Press Your Luck with our good friend Peter Tomarken. Both parties call out, squint their eyes, hit the buzzer (okay, that's just on PYK), and then hope for the best. The reason this is foolish (although repeatedly shouting "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" sure is fun, try right now, wherever you are, you'll see) is not because saves can't possibly be predicted. It's because save OPPORTUNITIES can't possibly be predicted. Head Cheese Eric Karabell did a good column on this last year. Without benefit of those stats now, however, take a look at this--Keith Foulke, full-time closer of the World Champion Boston Red Sox had 39 save opps. Jason Isringhausen of the NL Champ Cardinals? 54.

I'm not done. How about two other closers on comparable teams in the middle? Jose Mesa of the Pirates racked up 48 save opps. Jorge Julio from the also 70-ish win Baltimore Orioles? A whopping 26. I could go on--I won't waste the time. With save opps, there are too many non-controllable factors (at least by the closer) to figure in. We all know the save is a corny stat anyway, when you really think about it. If you wanna give a guy a stat for finishing the game, call it a 'Finish' cause that's what he did. 'Save' and 'Finish' aren’t synonomous. That "middle reliever" who came in and got the opponent's left-handed masher in the 8th inning with a three-run lead with the bases loaded? He's the one that save the game. You got three groundouts with a three-run lead. That's a 'Finish'.

Anyway, to sum up, we should all ponder how many save opportunities Frankie will have this year, not saves. If you knew that, you could really get close on saves. A guy of K-Rod's caliber is gonna save around 90-92% percent of the "finishes" he's assigned. So if he's as "fortunate" as Mariano Rivera last year with 57 save opps, he'll probably reel in about 52. If he's draws Julio's luck, he'll net about 23. Either way, he's the same excellent pitcher. But those two extremes would sure make a difference for your fantasy team, wouldn't they? So the best advice this correspondent can give those in the 13% percent who voted 50+ at MLB.com who may be planning on drafting K-Rod to anchor their bullpen is I recommend you start practicing screaming "Big Bucks! No Whammies!" right away.

FYI

The Angels open the spring season against the Bonds-less Giants on March 3rd in Tempe. The regular season begins at home against Chuck Norris and the Texas Rangers followed by a three-game set against the Royals. Don't breathe easy, though--the Angels play the Yanks, Twins, A's (twice) and Texas again (at Ameriquest Field in Arlington, where the Rangers were 51-30 last year) all in April.

Despite Published Reports…

…I can actually read. I realize some of you have sent me e-mails in the last month and I haven't exactly answered them yet. I apologize and will make a concerted attempt to answer those in the very near future. I can imagine you're waiting with bated breath (or with baited breath, for all those like BassCenter). It's almost time to gear up the machine that is the greatest sport of all and it's going to be a long, but enjoyable marathon (even with the word STEROIDS mentioned every 7.2 seconds), so enjoy your last few days off. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Wallet Washout

2005-01-20T00:01:00.000-05:00

The Los Angeles Times, the Orange County Register, and Major League Baseball all reported in the first sentence of articles published yesterday that the Angels avoided arbitration with Jarrod Washburn, the lone lefty in the rotation. Avoided. As in "to stay clear of, or shun". Dictionary.com lists avoid as a synonym for "escape". Look, I know that saying a team avoided arbitration is business-speak, but if there is anyone who "avoided" arbitration it's Washburn. He should've avoided it. Like grim death. Here's a guy who's won more than 11 games once. He's had 2 ERA seasons below 4.00 with 100+ IP. He's clearly still living on that 2002 championship season. Sure, it was a solid year, but it's the only time in his career his K/9 has topped 6 (6.07).

Okay, yes, I realize the starting pitching market got a little (okay, a lot) outta hand this offseason, but there's nothing in the numbers that says he should be making 6.5 million. Remember, that number is a compromise. He would've asked for more in arbitration. Can he justify more? No way. Matt Clement--same age, two more 12+ win seasons, astronomically higher K/9 rate--8 mil a year (average). Al Leiter--8 sub 4.00 ERAs, six 12+ win seasons--8 million. Jon Lieber--4 sub 4.00 ERAs, three 12+ wins--7 million. Eric Milton--four 12+ wins--8 million. Russ Ortiz--4 sub 4.00 ERAs, 6 12+ wins (even though he's extremely fortunate)--8.25 million. Brad Radke--4 sub 4.00 ERAs, six 12+ wins--9 million. I could go on but I won't.

The point is these salaries (all averages over their new deal) are approaching the neighborhood that JW would've been asking. He is not in the league of these pitchers, overrated as some of them may be. And, oh, yeah, here's one more thing--every single one of those pitchers had a higher K/9 ratio than Washburn did last season. Jarrod Washburn is not worth 6.5 million, even on a team approaching 100 million in the books. So, to sum this up, let me state once again what the other reports politely misstated--the Angels didn't avoid arbitration in this negotiation. Jarrod Washburn did.

Other Arbitrary Information

The Angels locked up Scot Shields for another year for 925K. I'm currently monitoring the police band for chatter, because that's an absolute steal. Shields is a top-notch reliever who is often overlooked with K-Rod and Donnelly roaming the pen. Adding Shields is a great way to solidify your pen as well. Jose Molina signed at around the going rate for backup catchers at 1 year and 725K. He's a great defender (and that's about it), which leaves little value in the fantasy game. The only Angel left facing arbitration is 3rd catcher Josh Paul, who only played in 46 games last season. If I'm Bill Stoneman, I walk into Paul's hearing offering $20 and a jar of really good pickles.

Jose, Can't You See?

There are some players who are well intentioned, or at least seem to be, but lack the personal and professional maturity to do their job and that shortcoming always tends to overshadow their talent and ability. I'm convinced that Jose Guillen has inducted himself as a charter member of that group. Guillen spoke out about the debacle that ended with him getting suspended for the last eight games of the regular season and the postseason. To a guy who always wants to be in the game (no matter what), forcing him to ride the pine in a division race and then in the postseason is a very good way to break his spirit. In an interview with the San Francisco Chronicle, JG said that the suspension came from an apparent tantrum he threw during the 9/25 game against the Elephant Men.

He claims Scioscia called him out in front of the team at his locker after the game in response to what Guillen calls simply tossing his helmet toward "where the batboy sits and it didn't even come close" to hitting Scioscia. Whether it did or not, the tirade wasn't, a giant event that called for drastic measure, it was the last straw in a big bushel of confrontations over PT that finally crossed Scioscia's patience threshold. Jose wants to play--and play hard--which is commendable, but when he makes comments like "if I'm producing and you sit me, we're going to have a little problem", it makes you realize that while you feel for a guy like Guillen, you really can see why he wouldn't be a good teammate. It's an very interesting piece. Check it out at sfgate.com.

Putting the "of" in GoOFus

The hearing to determine the future in the Angels name fiasco is tomorrow (1/21). The word is if the city loses in this phase of the game, their chances of winning a long drawn-out trial would be substantially diminished. My feeling is that it's really a shame that this couldn't be solved one way or another outside of the courtroom. I see the sides of both parties, but the bottom line is it's a potential distraction for a team that doesn't need one, and right now it looks like it can only get uglier from here. Los Angeles Angels, Anaheim Angels…whatever they end up being called, I just sincerely hope that one day soon we can all punch up the home page for the Halos and not see a preposition in the team name. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Pitching Change

2005-01-17T18:54:00.000-05:00

There's a pitching change over at Center Field. That means the outfielders are gathered together for the break in the action--and the topic probably isn't baseball. Check it out and see what a Romanian couple actually named their son and hear about the latest gadget that is supposed to help us get even lazier but really sounds like a colossal waste of research and development.

A Tale of Two Thumbs

2005-01-13T01:16:00.000-05:00

Vladimir Guerrero and I now have something in common. We both injured our thumbs playing for secondary teams. Vlad's was in the Dominican league, mine was in the Crestwood Baptist intramural basketball league. See? We're practically brothers. Except that Vlad was playing a better sport and his primary team was actually very concerned he hurt himself. My team at least knew I was displaying my prodigious basketball skills in another league. They, uh, just didn't really care. Anyway, Vlad will be ready for Spring Training and will cease playing for the Licey Tigers. Right now he can't grip a bat though. Angels GM Bill Stoneman said he and Vlad would have a "conversation" on the "wisdom" of playing winter ball when Vlad returned. Not patronizing at all, is it?

It really all comes down to a "broke vs. fix" mentality. Vlad, K-Rod, and Kelvim Escobar all had solid seasons, so the Angels don't want them playing. K-Rod was denied flat-out, Escobar had to be talked out of it, and Vlad…well, Vlad just didn't tell the Angels because he knew they would probably call FEMA. Bartolo Colon (he of the 1st half 6.38 ERA) was encouraged to maybe throw a few innings down south. Where are the concerns about the millions of dollars still riding on BC? See, he needs a fix, thinks the Angels. But does he? His final numbers aren't impressive, but his 2nd half looked like this--12-4, 3.63 ERA, OBA .232. I think he got his fix already. Alright, enough thumbing around. Let's take a look at some of these offseason moves the new LAAofA made.

Orlando Cabrera: 4yr/32M

We've gotta start here because this one has the most moolah attached. Most pundits aren't real keen on this deal and it's easy to see why. Cabrera's career high in AVG is .297 in '03, he doesn't really have any pop, so he can't be considered one of the "New Age" SSs ('04 SLG was .383, career is just north of .400 at .409), and don't give me defense, because while Eck was worst among regular MLB SS in range factor, Cabrera is still south of the middle of that pack. I see nothing in his portfolio that makes him worth this deal, especially now that he's 30 and his speed will start dropping off during this contract. Cabrera is an excellent slap doubles hitter though--41, 43, 47, and 38 in the last four years. Does he make the Halos better? I would say yes. $32 million better? No.

Steve Finley: 2yr/14M

The Angels are worried about Garret Anderson getting older, fighting arthritis, and having to play center field. They also dealt Jose Guillen, a menace in the batter's box and the clubhouse (more on that later). So what do they do counter these two problems? Sign Steve Finley! (Pardon me while I slacken my cheeks, violently shake my head, and moan). What? GA's 32. Finley's 40. You're worried about Anderson's CF defense (Range Factor: 2.46), so you sign a quadragenarian (Rng: 2.37)? Don't get me wrong, Finley can rake, but he won't be hitting 36 HR again. 15.7% of his flyballs left the yard last year. The MLB mean is 10%. Plus, he has played in the BOB in AZ for the better part of the last five years. Angel Stadium isn't so friendly. I like him, but he's not worth the bucks.

Troy Percival: Signed with DET, 2yr/12M

Percy was with the Halos for 10 years, racking up 316 saves and stood near the top of the closer class from most of it. The question, now that he's going, is this--will the Angels even miss him? His successor is better, younger, and more than ready to assume the role of big-league closer. My take would be that, sure, he could've helped this bullpen, but at a 12 million dollar price tag? No thanks. No way. He wouldn't even be the in top 3, no, top 5 in this bullpen. I see K-Rod, Donnelly, Shields, Yan, and even Gregg having more productive seasons than the Perce. His K/9 dropped below 6 for the first time ever in '04--it had never been below 8.76 before. Add a lucky batter hit rate of 25% and he's hanging by a thread. He made the most of it, but enjoy the sunset, Troy.

Troy Glaus: Signed with ARI, 4yr/45M

Also part of the Troy Exodus from Anaheim, er, LA, was Glaus, who ended up in the desert with the D-Backs. While I've haven't cared much for many of the Halo offseason moves, the good news is this--every one of Arizona's moves has potentially been worse than any of the Angels. Glaus, who may or may not ever play 3B again, gets 10+ mil a year? Sure, his hitting should be okay (especially at the BOB), but there's no DH in the NL. He's gotta field. And there's no denying he's a huge risk. For the Angels part, they do have an infinitely cheaper slugger ready to take TG's place. Dallas McPherson could probably hit LA from Anaheim even though the Angels don't technically play there. Defense? A cardboard likeness might be almost as effective. He'll need maturing, but he's a gem.

Jose Guillen: traded to WAS

There is no denying that the Halos are going to miss this bat. I realize that the lineup still features the power of Guerrero, Anderson, Finley, and now McPherson along with the pesky sticks of Figgins, Erstad, and Cabrera, but of those who played 60 or more games, he was 2nd on the team in SLG (behind MVP Guerrero), 2nd in OPS, and 2nd in HR. When Anderson's previous long-time power in question, that's a lot to let go. I'll tell you what, unlike the Yankees with Giambi, and Colorado with Neagle, the Angels actually did make a roster move specifically on character. I hope no one's fooling you that Giambi and Neagle were/are fighting contract voids because of on-field performance that just happened to coincide with a good excuse to excuse them off the field. Guillen put up a solid year--but he didn't mix with the management at Anaheim. Now he's gone. If nothing else, I respect the Halos for sticking with their principles, and that's what this is all about. Good luck, Jose, but I think this was a positive move.

Estaban Yan: 2yr/2.25M

This move drew a chorus of "Yans" from most fans (Get it?…ey…). Anyway…although this falls in line with this year's pitching market (i.e. being priced at least a little too high for the talent acquired), I like this a lot. Yan is probably the 4th man outta the 'pen right now, but he's got good skills. A 2.16 K/BB ratio and K/9 over 7 in '04 are numbers just about anyone would like to see in their pen and the Angels have that as a 4th guy. That's solid. Though probably not as good with runners on base and not a guy you'd wanna bring in to get one hitter out in a tight spot, Yan could easily be a guy that could come in and give the Halos two solid innings here, two solid innings there. With Shields, Donnelly, K-Rod, and Gregg around him, he fills out a very good bullpen quite nicely. Too bad he's not left-handed though, huh?

Paul Byrd: 1yr/4.5M

No one--well, okay, me and pitching coach Bud Black--is talking about the Halo rotation this offseason. The troubles of Colon were well-publicized and they're what remain in most minds as a snapshot of '04 of him. Escobar was solid, but quietly solid, and John Lackey had just a forgettable enough season for everyone to gloss over it. All anyone remembers of Jarrod Washburn right now is the slider he hung (like a freakin' Christmas stocking) to David Ortiz in the playoffs that quite possibly just landed this week. It's funny--a recent poll at the Angels official website asked what the Angels' biggest strength this year would be. Interestingly enough, Offense received 45% of the vote. Even more interesting was the last-place 4% the rotation received. I voted bullpen (23%), but we'll see.

Maybe that's why, not unlike the signing of Yan, that Byrd's signing was virtually omitted by the press. Admittedly, he's a relatively soft-tossing 34-year-old, but I promise you here and now that he won't do nearly the damage that Aaron Sele or Ramon Ortiz did last year. If Jarrod Washburn doesn’t get it together, Byrd won't even end up the #5 guy. It's a decent signing--no commitment, reliable, even if not wholly impressive, skills--I think he'll do okay. Like too many in the Angel rotation, he's a flyball pitcher only he doesn't have the velocity to mow opposing batters down. When his control is there, he certainly won't hurt you. Here's hoping for a pinpoint year from Mr. Byrd.

Ramon Ortiz: traded to CIN

Check this out:

As starter: 5.47 ERA, 2.09 K/BB, 5.47 K/9, .309 OBA
As reliever: 2.76 ERA, 2.27 K/BB, 6.25 K/9, .231 OBA

So, naturally he winds up at Cincinnati--in the rotation. If only Ramon could develop a little more endurance, he could be productive as a starter. Like Pedro's magic pitch #100, Ramon starts to hit a wall at about #46--SLG jumps almost .100 at that point (using 2002-2004 statistics). There's potential there especially for a pitcher who's only 31 with a few years left before the big decline, but he won't be doing it Anaheim and I'm not sure that under different circumstances, the Angels wouldn't have been better off with him than Jarrod Washburn.

The Rest

Juan Rivera comes over from Washington nee Montreal, and I really like his potential. This is a guy who has solid hitting skills and could probably hit .290 with full-time play. He makes great contact and the only real mark against him is his just average power. He's just 26 and still developing and the Angels might be getting him at just the right time.

Maicer Izturis is the other half of the Guillen deal, and he looks like a decently solid player as well. He's only 24 and has an incredible glove but his downside is that his bat has just a little more power than mine. Even with an outstanding contact rate, that's not good.

Alfredo Amezaga has gone to Coors, where even the thinnest air won't be able to liven up his bat. He's still an Angel in spirit--or at least in the guise of Izturis.

David Eckstein signed with St. Louis. Many Angel fans were sad to see him go, but as you hear so often, this is a business, and the Angels now have a better shortstop. He's not worth the pay increase they'll be devoting to the position, but alas…good luck to Eck, by the way. I'll say this, St. Louis fans will love him.

Andres Galarraga signed with the Mets--where he'll never touch the field once the blue and orange sign Carlos Delgado (and maybe even if they don't).

The Human Butter Churn, Ben Weber, signed with the Reds. If he pitches anywhere remotely near the way he did last year, he'll be out of a job by June.

Shane Halter went non-tendered this offseason. Uh…whatever.

In a starting pitching hungry market, Aaron Sele is still a free agent. Any questions?

Okay, time for me to ice or heat my thumb--or something.

Center Field 2005

2005-01-12T01:55:00.000-05:00

Hey there. Just want to encourage all of you to head over to Center Field, where I've just posted the first new material of what I hope to be a very productive (and interactive) year. The comment section is there for you to get your practice in as well. CF8 is a place where we can all get a good dialogue going.

Shaggin' Flies #2 offers plenty of opportunities for you to tell me just how wrong I am. If that's not enough, you can go back and laugh at the "pilot" column from last July where I picked the San Diego Padres to storm ahead and win the NL West. What a wanker (although I did call the Braves in the East and Phil Nevin ended up just 4 HR shy of 30).

Anyway, you're more than welcome over in Center Field. Grab your glove. Take a look.

Getting Back in Shape

2005-01-06T17:47:00.000-05:00

Most people this time of year have devised new and improved ways to lose weight, increase their muscle mass, and decrease their waistline. I am facing the task of getting my pens, pencils, and wits sharpened for yet another season of baseball here and ESPN and ITH (insidethehalo.blogspot.com). I’m looking forward to April 4 just as I know you are (otherwise I would hope you could find better ways to spend your time than by reading a baseball column). So, now that my inbox is almost empty for a change, excuse me while I [snap], [crackle], and [pop] my knuckles and try and get back down to my fighting weight, get all my ducks in a row, and get back up on the horse. One thing is for sure--my truckloads of clichés are definitely alive and kickin'.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

That's right. It's official. How long it sticks could be determined by a long and sticky court battle--one of which I want no part. I will, however, happily offer my take …I like it--as a business decision. I hear the outrage of Angels fans in Anaheim and understand that quite well also. But here's a take from someone who has no affiliation with LA or the OC. Bottom line--it very well could be good long-term business decision. Is it silly? Any official title for a team that includes the word "of" qualifies as silly, yes. But LA baseball is the Dodgers, even if they originally came from Brooklyn. So, the time for the Angels to perform is now in 2005. Because if they slip into mediocrity, I'm afraid that Arte Moreno may have just made the Angels into the new Mets, White Sox, and Clippers. No Angels fan wants to be a step-kid.

I'll be honest, when I first read the press release, I really, really liked the idea. But having digested many (way too many) opinions on the matter since, I'm starting to see all the other ramifications of this. The Angels actually play in Anaheim. That city, although they wrote a very flawed lease, put a lot into having that "Anaheim" in front of their beloved Angels. Some fans became Angels fans because they weren't identified with LA. But there is a bit of posturing by the city too, as far as I'm concerned. I realize they're under lease to have their name with the Angels, but Anaheim mayor Curt Pringle said just last month that an NFL team in Anaheim would be benefit because the city is "certainly firmly in the center of the LA market." Host and parasite?

Look, Anaheim, in terms of MLB city population, ranks only above Tampa, Florida (and that's only if you don't include St. Petersburg, which put TB ahead by over 200,000). Yes, Anaheim is smaller than Cincinnati. And Arlington, Texas. And Pittsburgh. And Kansas City. And Minneapolis (even without St. Paul). In terms of population, Anaheim should be a small market team by that measure, right? 2004's 101 million dollar clearly shows otherwise. The Angels are obviously benefiting from the LA market, named that way or not. The other side should say that if they're already benefiting from LA money, which is Moreno's publicly-stated number one reason for the name change, then what's all the hubbub, Bub? Isn't this an "ain't-broke-don't-fix" situation?

Whether you like it or not, it's a reality. Don’t look for Arte and the gang to beat their fans, who already feel a little upset over the head with the LA moniker. It won't be on the unis, gear, and the Angels haven't submitted any logo or color change. Good thing too, because a poll taken at ESPN.com this very day showed over 100,000 voters preferring Anaheim at 47%, to California at 43% and Los Angeles at 8%. I'll say this and let it drop--there was a Los Angeles Angels (of the PCL) in LA before they were forced to move when the Dodgers of the National League showed up in 1958. Later, when the MLB LA Angels (now an expansion team) began their 2nd year of play, guess where they called home? Well, the Angels called it Chavez Ravine, but it's real name was--and is--Dodger Stadium.

Offseason Shuffle

The great Jerry Seinfeld has noted that all sports fans are really doing is rooting for laundry and that never seems more true than during the Hot Stove League, when free agents are being dealt like the Topps and Upper Deck cards that bear their names and visages. My first in-depth task in the New Year will be to take a look at each of these moves for the Angels, from the big to the small, and forecast what it means for the Halos on the field and on your fantasy roster. I won't be able to cover all those here, but rest assured you'll be able to read the breakdown in full format at Inside the Halo. Look for that here and there in the next week.

ITH Offices Open for Business

Sure, we only have a staff of one, but we're ready to serve. The e-mail is insidethehalo@insightbb.com if you want to take part. I've recently uncovered some older e-mails that I apparently haven't answered yet, and if yours is one of that bunch, rest assured your response will be out to you shortly (albeit long after I'm sure you wanted it). With those final few e-mails answered, we've renew our New Year's Resolution for 2004 in 2005: answer each and every single one of your Halo queries (okay, each and every one of the least combative, non-profanity-laced ones anyway.) I look forward to an exciting '05 with all of you that will hopefully end with the biggest mouthfuls ever inscribed on the World Series trophy: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim--2005 World Champions. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Takin' On Water

2004-09-03T01:06:00.000-04:00

No one said a pennant race was easy. The Angels were the first team to spring a leak in the chase for the playoffs, falling behind the other two teams--Oakland and Boston--all three vying for those last two spots in the playoffs. Winning 10 of 14 usually isn't a problem, but Oakland and Boston are both even hotter, so the Halos now find themselves 4 back of the Elephant Men and 4.5 back of the Red Sox. And while the Angels will spend Labor Day weekend battling the Tribe, I'll be relaxing out at sea--uh, okay, actually out at lake, but now you'll at least get all the water references. That's right--I made sure no one told me that a pennant race wasn't easy.

KingFish Outta the Water Indefinitely

Tim Salmon hasn't really been much of a factor all season long. In less than 200 ABs, he's only managed to pop two dingers, drive in 23, and hit a measly .253. The last time he appeared in 3 straight games was back in July. That doesn't mean the Angels won't miss him. He's one of those vet guys that others look to and his locker will be empty until possibly as late as Opening Day 2006. Salmon says he won't retire, although I can't imagine that those 45% of ESPN AL owners that still have him are expecting much when he does return. It's a bad way to spend the declining era of your career. Unfortunately, like teammates Troy Percival and Aaron Sele, we may have seen the best days of his career come to a close. Speedy recovery, KingFish.

KingFish's Replacement? KingCat!

The right-handed power bat off the bench will now fall into the even older hands of Andres Galarraga. AG hit .304 in 25 games at AAA with 4 HR and 19 RBI. There is no question that this is a great story for the Big Cat, but don't get excited about much fantasy value. With Glaus back and only capable of DHing, it's very unlikely that Galarraga will get any significant PT. Same goes for fellow call-ups Casey Kotchman and Shane Halter (but then, you probably already knew that about Halter). Halter's overcome some adversity and his story is good as well but fantasy value is absolutely nil. As for Kotchman, he's got the future. There's just nowhere for them to play at this point--which, of course, is a good problem to have. Being 4 games outta the playoffs? Not a good problem to have.

Washburn Set to Splash Saturday; RO Out to Sea

Wash is still on target to start Saturday's game in Cleveland. According to the team's website, his bullpen session on Wednesday went fine and he's ready to go for the time in almost six weeks. And in a move that makes my head spin, Scioscy has decided to move Ramon Ortiz back into the bullpen instead of Sele. I'm not gonna go through the numbers again because I've done it twice before. Sele has about as much business starting over Ortiz as I do. I don't get it and I'm not gonna waste my breath this time.

More Fish in the Sea?

The fantasy trading deadline has passed, and if you haven't gotten on the Add Troy Glaus wagon by now, well, sorry, we're almost completely full up. Are there any more Angels waiting in the wings that could give your team a jolt? A few weeks back, I suggested dropping Robb Quinlan because he wouldn't be back this year. That remains true for now, but not from lack of trying on Quinlan's part. He's stepping up his rehab, trying to make it back in two weeks or so. Sure, that only leaves two weeks to produce (and that after being out a while), but keep him in mind as a last ditch, Hail Mary-type play. If he does return, it's likely Scioscy would let him have some ABs. Otherwise, Kotchman and Galarraga allow the best (albeit small) opportunity for pleasant surprise.

The Undertow of Erstad's Success

Despite my frequent protestations to the contrary, Darin Erstad has put together an impressive year, hitting .319 to date with 14 SB and adequate R and RBI totals to help your team in an OF slot (Enjoy it this year though--in '05 he'll only be 1B eligible). Perhaps benefiting from DE's success the most (other than the man himself) is Chone Figgins. Moved to the 9 hole when Scioscy reshuffled the lineup to optimize the streaking Erstad, he reawakened his recently dormant speed, hitting away from the big bats of Guerrero, Anderson, and Guillen. He swiped 3 bases in the first 9 games after stealing as many in almost a month hitting 2nd. His average at the bottom is .340, which is the spot where he's consistently performed the best. Keep Figgins in the game from here on in.

Sailing Away

John Lackey has a 2.422 K/BB ratio this year, which is very solid and only second in the rotation (and just barely) to Kelvim Escobar by .004, whose K/BB is 2.426. He's 2nd on the team in wins to Bartolo Colon, who's had the benefit of almost 2 more runs of support per 9 innings for the season. A case could seriously be made that JL's been the best starter the Angels have had this year (although I'd place him just behind Escobar--that's right, ahead of Colon). While 11-11 with a 5.12 ERA is nothing to shout about, he's had a little bad luck this year. He's been torched on the road, but 1/3 of his road starts have come in the hitter's paradises of TEX, TOR, and CHW. He's also still 25. His K/BB has risen each year too. Time for respect. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Dog Days of Summer

2004-08-25T01:11:00.000-04:00

The term was coined because early Greeks and Romans thought that Sirius, the Dog Star, which rises with or just before the sun during this time of year, actually was the cause of the extra heat as well. It's also been described as a period of inactivity, which if you've been checking this page any lately, you know that that's certainly been the case here. Whether it was the Olympics (which I've been consuming in large bites), mail order movies (free trials are great), or the resurgence of my comic book collecting (Batman, is, and probably always will be, my hero), I've had a little time to recharge my batteries. My ears haven't been glued to the baseball news wire as they've been for much of the year, but I've kept an eye on things for you. Let's get started.

Is Troy Back or Is This a Trojan Horse?

First, he started swinging. Then murmurs of him returning to Anaheim. Then he does--and wows everyone exhibiting several launching-pad home runs. Is Troy Boy really gonna suit up soon? The chances seem a lot greater than before. I've said numerous times that it was unlikely--and believe me, BP is still just that. . .BP--but TG started his minor league rehab tonight. With the minor league season ending soon, he's a sure bet to be in the dugout in September. He'll only DH, but that's all fantasy owners care about. If your IR's empty (and mine was), adding Troy would cost you nothing and might just net you some key power for the stretch drive. In H2H, you may just have the boost your team needs for the playoffs. He can only do so much with a few weeks, but he's a difference maker.

Rotation Preparing to Do Just That

Jarrod Washburn is one good simulated game away from starting a rehab stint of his own. It could be a couple of starts, but AL owners who own Aaron Sele or Ramon Ortiz should be watching closely. Scioscy wants to delay the decision of who to relegate the pen as long as possible, but you have to think he wouldn't be silly enough to keep Sele in the rotation. Since the Break, his ERA is higher, he's fanned 10 and walked 16 (!), and his BAA is .322. Ramon Ortiz's numbers don't shine, but it takes very little to top those scary-looking stats. As far as Wash is concerned, it's tough to say how he'll do in the short term. This injury caused him a lot of pain, and he's been almost totally inactive for a month. His numbers weren't great before, but a rest could've been good medicine.

Fatman as Fearsome as His Gotham Counterpart?

Bart is 8-2 since July 1 following his much-maligned tank job in the first half. But has he really returned to his pre-Anaheim ace status? Not really. His ERA in the same span is just north of 4, while his K/BB ratio is a non-acelike 1.8. That's not killing anyone, but nothing to boast about. His control, which was actually much better in the first half (2.93 BB/9 compared to his post-Break 4.02), is a culprit, although he has seen his K/9 up as well, just not as much. He's taken the air-it-out approach and it's worked pretty well so far. What has changed dramatically since the first half? His HR fortune, that's for sure. He posted a 2.06 HR/rate in the first half--only 0.84 since. Much closer to his career averages. He's doing well, but he's still not the Fatman of old.

The Fireball is Firin' Away

Jose Guillen "won the fight" with Scioscy over the weekend about whether he'd play or not against the Yanks. Scioscy wanted to give him a day off, but Jose "told him he was going to [play]". Situations like this are becoming common. If he were a superhero, he'd be The Fireball or the Griper or Complaining Man or something to that effect. Scioscy defused Jose's remarks like any manager who's worth his salt will. The issue here is that the Angels are winning. If the Angels were sitting where Seattle is right now, he becomes a clubhouse problem. Stats aside, he's gotta be a pain. Stats not aside, he's absolutely mashing the ball to the tune of 31 RBI and a .572 SLG since the Break. He's has exceeded all expectations and believe it or not, he's for real.

September Help

Not only will Glaus most likely be gracing the Angel dugout soon after the rosters expand in a week, but there are other Halos who will be lurking nearby to give those owners looking for help an extra push as well. Andres Galarraga will most likely be back in the majors and has been hitting well at AAA. Casey Kotchman, whose earlier stint brought some unbelieving "overrated" mutters, is blistering the pill at a .377 clip in AAA also. Casey may have only hit .218 in his 28 games earlier this season, but he will very likely be a regular in the Angel lineup within 2 years (a very good one too). It's not clear whether Dallas McPherson will see the majors soon also, but don't rule it out. Will any of these guys get significant PT? Maybe Kotchman. Maybe not.

Odds and Ends

Very interesting 6 games ahead after the KC series. Three with MIN at home and 3 in Fenway. Either series could be a potential playoff preview. . .Darin Erstad continues to make me eat crow with his .316 AVG and 14 SB along with 2 dingers and 6 RBI in the past week. Don't believe the hype, though. In OPS, he's 19th among 22 MLB 1B with enough ABs to qualify for the batting title. He's also getting hits at 35% clip. That's too high to last. . .Figgins' move to 9th may have been the best thing for his speed. He's swiped 3 bases in 9 games in the bottom slot. Something to note if you know an owner who's upset about less ABs for him. . .I'd bail on Robb Quinlan unless you're in a very deep keeper. He won't be back in time to really help in '04. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Closing In

2004-08-10T13:08:00.000-04:00

The Angels have now caught and passed the Texas Rangers for 2nd place, only 1.5 back of the Elephant Men and the top spot in the AL West. They’re finding ways to win games, which is what happens when teams make runs. They’ve won 5 in a row, 8 of the last 10, and 10 of the last 13. It’s a sketchy run though, because in August both the ERA is up and AVG is down from July marks. Colon is doing much better though, Escobar threw a gem last Friday and Lackey is in a groove (more on that later), so the pitching performance is improving despite the stats. The Halos don’t play another division game until September 13th, when they’ll finish out against the West, so scoreboard watching may become a temptation. Against the East and Central, the Halos are a combined 34-22.

ITH July Fantasy Golden Halo

ITH (insidethehalo.blogspot.com) awarded John Lackey the July Halo for this line: 4-1, 3.06 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 28 K, 6 BB in 32.1 IP. Stellar month. John’s only owned in 3% of mixed leagues, so right now, he’s an excellent pickup having a 7.7 K/9 and a 3.8 K/BB since the beginning of July. His BAA of .240 in July is the lowest he’s had since the month he entered the majors in June 2002 (.220). Naturally, his hit rate (H%) was lower in July at 20%, but other numbers show that the month wasn’t what should be considered a fluke. John can be a solid starter for the Halos, if not spectacular. He’s an excellent add for streamers and a team with weak pitching. Check out Inside the Halo for the complete season breakdown of the weekly and monthly Fantasy Halos and all my other material.

Back Where They Belong

Per my suggestion (not really, but it does feel nice to have called for this 3 weeks ago), Scioscy switched Vlad back to 3rd and put Garret Anderson back in the cleanup spot this past week, calling it his “most productive, best lineup”, according to the team’s website. He cited Vlad’s higher OBP in front of Anderson, whose OBP has never been in the stellar range like Guerrero’s. This, of course, could possibly downgrade Vlad’s RBI opportunities, but will probably help him overall. His OPS is 129 points higher in the 3 spot. Anderson will likely benefit in RBI now with the Vlad-masher in front of him. He, too, hits better in his usual position. GA’s OPS is 153 points higher in the 4 hole. All hail Scioscy for correcting this lineup situation.

What is “I Don’t Have the Slightest Idea?”

I know I’m the “analyst” (emphasis on the quotation marks) here, but that’s how I’d answer Alex Trebek if he told me the answer was The Key To Aaron Sele’s 2004 Success. Maybe Mulder and Scully know. His K/BB is 1.14, his K/9 is a career-low 3.83, his ERA is 4.60, WHIP 1.43--nothing looks anywhere near ownable. Yet he’s 7-0. Gotta be lucky, right? Well, the hit rate against him is 28%--a little low but nothing drastic. His strand rate is 71%--also right around the mean. So he’s not been all that lucky. What is goin’ on? Is there an extra fielder on a grassy knoll we don’t know about? Brain thieves? That it? His last five starts his BB/9 is 4.0 and his K/9 is 2.0. That’s insane. How has he fared in those starts? 2-0. His run support is 6.2, so maybe that’s at least a clue.

Does the Q Mean Quality?

Robb Quinlan has posted a 20-game hitting streak, causing his ownership in mixed leagues to rise to almost 50% and he’s now almost universally owned in ESPN AL leagues. Will Quinlan be the Opening Day starter at 3rd for the Halos in 2005? I don’t know that I’d bet on it. RQ is still kinda young at 27, but he’s not really shown the ability to do what he’s been doing in the minors before, and currently his hit rate is 38%, which won’t last. The fact is that there’s no denying the man’s hot, so he’s a good add for now, especially at that troublesome hot corner roster spot. I’m not sayin’ Q’s no good—at 27, he could just be coming of age, but the chances are against it. Expect a dropoff in performance over the long haul to around .280 with less power than he’s been showing.

Bengie, Come Home!

Yeah, I know that’s the Lassie line, but the fact is for now and the foreseeable future, the Angels are probably gonna be doggin’ it behind the plate. With the elder Molina out, it’s been left in the hands of little bubby Jose and Josh Paul, who’ve actually done quite well so far, hitting .320 together in Bengie’s absence. Don’t expect that to last though. What may be surprising to some though is that Jose is splitting time with Paul at all. Since BM’s injury, Jose has gotten 5 starts and Paul 3, and Scioscia has said there won’t be a regular guy for now. That means AL owners should look elsewhere if possible for their C needs. If, by chance, you’re in an All-Anaheim league though, I’d go with Paul because he’s likely to reach base more often.

Odds and Ends

Jarrod Washburn is still over a week away from even throwing a baseball, so his return could be much further away than Angels fans and his owners are hoping. . .Will there be a Big Cat prowling the Stadium? Andres Galarraga is 6-15 with AAA Salt Lake with a bomb and 5 RBI. Don’t be surprised to see him soon. . .”X-Files” Sele pitches tonight against another pitcher who’s been mysteriously good with awful peripherals, Daniel Cabrera of the Orioles. Might shape up to be the ugliest game on tap tonight. . .12 of the next 15 for the Halos are against sub-.500 teams. A run here is necessary, especially with 9 at home. . .Troy Percial’s ERA since July 1 is 1.42, but he’s still not overpowering hitters with a 1.6 K/BB in the same span. Exercise caution. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

No Super Unit, But We've Got. . .Fatman

2004-08-05T22:28:00.000-04:00

Seventy-two percent of you who voted on the ITH Instant Poll (insidethehalo.blogspot.com) said that the Angels should definitely acquire Randy Johnson as long as they didn't have to trade off more than one of the stellar prospects that currently reside in the farm system. Arte Moreno and Bill Stoneman apparently agree with us. Arizona wanted more than the Angels were willing to give and Randy didn't make the trip from one A to the other. Interestingly enough, the other 21% of you said to forget Randy because McPherson, Mathis, Kotchman, Santana, and Jenks were just too important to the Angels' future. Not one vote was cast to acquire the Unit at any cost. The Angels needed an arm, but I think we're on the right page with not giving up too much to get Johnson.

Trade Deadline Recap

The Angels made one move at the trade deadline but despite being in the pennant race, it was a player dump. Finally seeing that Guillen, Anderson, Guerrero, DaVanon, Salmon, and Figgins are enough, 7th outfielder Raul Mondesi was sent packing on Saturday as the Angels became the second team to terminate his contract this season. He failed to show up for a rehab appointment and may have been frustrated at his inability to get back to the major league level after injuring his quad having played only 11 games for the Halos. It wasn't really a good move to sign him when they made it, and I fully support the move to get rid of him. Raul is about the last person who should be acting as if he's Allen Iverson. That's right, Raul, we're talkin' 'bout practice.

Bartolo Colon is. . .Fatman

He's the Red Knight. The Gloved Crusader. He doesn't have a Fatmobile or a Robin (unless you count Jose Molina), but he sure is pitching like a comic book hero lately. Just when it looked like Colon was gonna be a real Joker this season, he donned the mantle of Staff Ace and put together a pretty decent July, going 4-1 with a 3.48 ERA. His BAA was .183, although his K/BB was an average 1.7. That won't turn his year completely around, but it at least he's been pitching like something other than a big, fat Penguin. His first start in August was pretty good also. That 6.6 run support will certainly finally start to help as well now that the ERA is coming down. I picked up him up during the huge skid, hopefully you did too. He probably won't dominate, but I think Fatman has returned.

Jarrod's a Wash; Ortiz/Sele Decision Postponed

Wash is eligible to return tomorrow from the 15-day DL, but as of now, he's not even close. He wasn't even able to throw a pitch this Sunday for his bullpen session, but hopes to throw before the week is over though nothing's in stone yet. It doesn't look like he'll be back in the short term. He's still in some pain. For now, Ramon Ortiz will continue to get what he wants--a starting slot--while Aaron Sele can hold his breath for a little longer. Ortiz has been throwing well, reigning in his control, but be cautious because it's come at the expense of his dominance. His K/9 has dropped to 2.5 the last 4 weeks. He's been incredibly lucky, stranding 93% of his runners, and as I type hasn't fanned 1 single batter in 5+ IP tonight. I'd avoid RO unless the matchup is very favorable.

What Happened to Three Bags?

At the end of June, Chone Figgins has 20 stolen bases, on pace for around 40. How many does he have now? Gotta be close to 30, right? Try 21. It could be that a secure role on the field has allowed him to relax. A fairly secure spot in the lineup (2nd) could also be the culprit. He's been hitting in front of the 3 hole, which sports the best average (.318) on the team. Not always smart to run in front of that. Plus, the Angels hit .306 as a team in July, their highest monthly total by 20 points. Finally, Scioscia seems to be relying on other people to help the running game as well. CF was over 30% of the running in April and May, while only 23% in June and 5% in July. However you look at it, there are plenty of reasons for Three Bags to not be stealing so many lately.

Switching Molinas

The elder Molina broke his finger and will be out 2-4 weeks according to the LA Times. Not good for the Angels' O. Or D, for that matter, when you lose the defending AL Gold Glover at catcher. Jose will get the bulk of the time behind the dish until Bengie returns, which may not be until September. He's a downgrade in every way, except maybe in speed. Now, by speed I don't mean stolen bases, I just mean that if he hits a ball to the outfield with a runner at first, then the defense won't have the chance to turn the double play. With the stick, he's such a free swinger, he honestly makes Vlad look patient. I'm not kidding. Here's to hoping for a quick return for Bengie and I say look elsewhere to plug your hole at C while he's out.

Pennant Races

Only 3.5 out of AL West lead, now trailing the A's, and although I completely agree that the A's staff overshadows the Halos' rotation, I maintain that this is a team they can catch. It appears that the Rangers may fade and if they do, the Angels could certainly win the division, especially if Washburn gets back, replaces Sele, and the starters can keep this offense in ballgames. Wild Card wise, the only teams in front of Anaheim are the Red Sox and Rangers, so they're in the race all around. . .Here's an idea. Remember how I was talking about Figgins' lack of SBs lately? Maybe flipping him and Eck would offer more chances for him to steal and open up the hit-and-run. Eck is much better at making contact than Three Bags. Just a thought. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Spinning Their Wheels

2004-07-27T12:10:00.000-04:00

Since June 3, when the Angels were 13 games over .500, matching their highest mark of the season, they've been the model of a team that absolutely just can't get anything going. They've managed two winning streaks of three or longer, both of those in the last 17 days, one of four games (which was interrupted by the All-Star Break) and one of three last week. They followed the first one up by losing 5 of 6, and thus far have followed the second one up with two consecutive losses. This is a team that will win 1, lose 2. Win 2, lose 2. Win 2, lose 3. It's not a good pattern. And while they are still very much in both the AL West and Wild Card races, the time to catch a groove is now. Five back of the Rangers, with a season record of 3-7 against them, makes the mud look pretty deep.

Some of the consistency the Angels lack is, of course due to the numerous injuries they've had over the course of '04. For example, last Friday against Seattle, Tim Salmon hit 8th in the order as the DH. Saturday, because of injuries, he was in the 3 hole. Sunday? Back to 7th. Last night? 3rd. This is a perfect example of the Angels season. Not trying to sound like ESPN's "The Rick", but it reminds me of my softball team. We're, uh, not very good. But one of the main reasons is because of lineup inconsistency. We have a different lineup every game. No one seems to play the same position more than twice. Does this sound familiar? The Halos have used 3 C, 5 1B, 4 2B, 4 SS, 5 3B, and at least 4 people at every OF position. Oh, yeah--and 13 DHs.

About That Lineup. . .

With Vlad and Anderson both out, the offense looks pretty meager. Salmon and his .254 average hitting 3rd. Erstad and his .402 SLG hitting 5th. Jose Guillen can't drive in everyone--he's certainly made an attempt with 9 RBI in the last week. When will more firepower return? Vlad may see action today, according to Scioscy and could very well start tomorrow. Garret Anderson's case seems to be a little more delicate, as there is no exact science for measuring a sore groin. He pulled himself out of Sunday's game to be safe, so I might expect him to sit the rest of the Texas series (which doesn't bode well for beating the Rangers). The injuries have been bad all year, but these two in a series where the Angels can either make up big ground or lose it, sure have happened at a bad time.

Does It Ever End?

I'm checking with the AMA to see if I will officially have my medical license at the conclusion of this season after covering the Angels' wide range of injuries. Jeff DaVanon recently became the 12th player the Angels relegated to the disabled list this season, beating out last season by 1 and tying '02's mark of 12. It seems that it would behoove the Halos to start ordering their MRIs, X-rays, band-aids, and Icy Hot by the dozen. There's gotta be some kind of discount for that. DaVanon is experiencing back spasms, which prompted the move, although there hasn't been any indication he won't be ready to go when he's eligible to be reactivated on August 5th.

I Guess It Doesn't

In other injury news, Troy Glaus has been able to swing a bat and do some light conditioning on his shoulder in Arizona, where he's currently rehabbing. Does that mean you should add on the assumption that he'll come back and give you 80 HRs before the end of the season? Uh, no. Don't get too excited. If. . .wait. . ."IF" he comes back, it will be as a DH only and that may even be too optimistic. I wouldn't be expecting TG at the ball park until '05. Also, Raul Mondesi has not resumed any baseball activities since reinjuring his quad during his minor league rehab. Don't look for Raul back anytime soon either, as the Angels have currently dropped all timetables related to him. For now, look for Josh Paul to get more looks in left until the regular OF is completely healed.

Yet Another No-Name

Robb Quinlan has stepped in at 3B and done a great job while Three Bags Figgins has had to venture back out to CF. In the last 5 games, RQ is 11-21 (.524), with 1 HR and 6 RBI. The last 2 years at AAA Salt Lake, he's shown the propensity for talent, with a very good season in '02. He regressed somewhat last year, but his MLB stats in limited time weren't terrible. He managed a .287 AVG in 94 ABs in '03 with Anaheim, although his other stats weren't that impressive. He's shown power in the past and although he doesn't look to have a great MLB future even at only 27, he's certainly a reasonable stopgap for Figgins while he mans center. Should you add him? As a 3B, he's not a bad add now when he's hot, but he'll sit soon. I'd pass, but keep him in mind should more injuries occur.

Benson and Center Field

The Angels wisely took themselves out of any contention for Kris Benson. He certainly wouldn't be an upgrade to what the Angels have. It looks like Anaheim against New York in the Unit War, Anaheim's prospects versus George's money. Randy would probably rather go north, but Arizona may not cave to the cash. They want players. . . Be sure to visit my new baseball commentary site, Center Field. There is also a link to it on the at the top of the sidebar. Check out the first article and be sure to chime in with your comments. It's geared to be an interactive site to talk baseball and have great discussion. Grab your glove and stop by Center Field. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Center Field

2004-07-22T15:23:00.000-04:00

Recently, I had to stop producing both Halo Daily and Reds Report due to lack of time to give daily updates now that I'm covering two teams for ESPN Fantasy Games. However, I now would like to announce the christening of yet another venture in the network here called Center Field. The schedule of production is still up in the air, but this will be a place that's more than just talk about the Reds and Angels. It's a place to come and talk all baseball. Occasionally (like when the outfielders gather in CF during a pitching change), the topics will veer to other issues, but you'll always be free to interact and respond to me and others at the site. Considering I'll be facilitating the site, I'm naming myself as the everday starting center fielder, but this outfield needs plenty of baseball fans to shag flies, talk shop, and raise the level of discussion.

Come on over to Center Field. Leave me a note. Let's starting honing our skills.

See you soon.

Randy, Oh My Randy

2004-07-21T15:49:00.000-04:00

Cat Stevens isn't the only one singin' about Randy lately. Angels fans and the LA area media would like to see Randy in Anaheim. Jarrod Washburn made a comment that the Angels would be "stupid" not to explore it. Stoneman even seemed to infer that although he and Moreno had ruled it out earlier, it might not be impossible that Randy would end up with a Halo. However, on the other side, no one from the Angels was at the BOB last night to watch the Unit pitch as they had been before. The D-Backs want at least two minor league studs for his services. McPherson won't be traded, and it's unlikely that Kotchman or Ervin Santana will either, but if Arizona will take Jeff Mathis and lesser prospects, it's not unreasonable to that RJ's Diamondback eyes will come to CA.

Why the Angels Need Randy, Oh My Randy

Aaron Sele's ERA is 7+ since returning from the DL. Hope you listened, 'cause I called that. Jarrod Washburn was lit for 10 runs (9 ER) yesterday against the Tribe. Called that too. Wash got lit for 13 hits on 100 pitches, 65 for strikes. He's throwing strikes--they're just meat. Probably why he gave up 4 bombs too. His last 5 starts, his K/9 is 4.0. Know this--he will never be successful with that mark. Ever. Back to Sele. How he's undefeated is a marvel of modern science. Wait, I know. It's probably that 8.4 Run Support he's gotten in those same four starts. And his K/9 isn't pretty either. Last 5 starts? 2.7. That's worse than Jimmy Gobble. Did I mention that Bartolo Colon's ERA is still over 6? Should they get him, could Randy pitch every day? It's worth asking.

. . .If the Price is Right

Let's play Showcase Showdown here. Pretend my name's Bob Barker.

Showcase #1: you have a pitcher with a K/9 of 4.26 for the year, ERA of 4.50, BAA of .279, and a K/BB of 1.29.

Showcase #2: You have a pitcher with a K/9 of 7.09 for the year, ERA of 4.09, BAA of .257 and a K/BB of 2.08.

Who's in your starting rotation, considering they can both start? If you picked #1, quit reading now and take up fantasy fly-fishing or needlepoint. Ramon Ortiz is #2 and while he's not the answer to all the Angel's rotation problems, he could certainly help instead of coming in with his mop after Sele and Co. get done slopping up the place.

Okay, let's play again. This time with relievers.

Showcase #1: A reliever with a 13.78 K/9, which leads the AL, a BAA of .178, a WHIP under 1, and a K/BB of 4.4.

Showcase #2: Features a reliever with a 5.47 K/9, a BAA of .263 (the highest in that reliever's career, by the way), a WHIP of 1.62, and a K/BB of 1.07. Oh, yeah--and Showcase #1 has a more than two run advantage in ERA over Showcase #2.

Now--who's your closer? Did you select Showcase #2? Again, get the needlepoint, then. These aren't hard decisions. Steve Bisheff commented today in the OC Register that Percival's place as greatest Angel reliever of all-time is safe for now and what he's doing this year isn't adding to it. K-Rod needs the 9th. You might argue that Percival has only blown 4 saves. I would counter with: Have you looked at the Showcases?

Offensive Experiment a Bust?

Back on July 6, Scioscy switched Vlad and Anderson in the lineup to try and find some "continuity" and possibly give the Angels some better options with men in scoring position. After 13 games, the stats of the two Angel sluggers in their new positions look like this--Anderson: .235, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 13 K. Guerrero: .269, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB, 10 K. Yes, they're certainly both driving in the runs, but is that enough? They're also both striking out more and hitting for less average. Vlad has run more with Guillen/DaVanon hitting behind him instead of Anderson. I suppose it's all a really small sample size, but the fact is it might behoove Scioscy to return to the original order where both were certainly flourishing--at least average-wise--much more than they are now.

Guillen OK, Raul Not

Jose has sat the last three games with lower back pain and one other "unspecified" non-injury related problem, but Scioscy says he expects him to be ready to go tonight and a DL stint will not be necessary. If you've been sitting Guillen, it's probably safe to put him back in the lineup for now. He'll most likely hit well immediately. Raul Mondesi, on the other hand, will not be hitting (at least in the majors) anytime soon. He reaggravated his quad during his minor league rehab and will take some more time off. Scioscy said on the team's website that any timetable for his return would have to be completely refigured. For you silly 11% in mixed leagues and 73% in AL leagues who just won't let the dream die, he's going to be sitting on your IR for a while.

Top and Bottom

For the next 2 weeks, the Angels will be playing divisional foes from both ends of the division. That starts tonight in Texas with Chuck Norris' team. Three more big games against Texas and 7 against Seattle the Angels must take advantage of follow this short two-game set. I'm still a little leery of this Ranger/Angel matchup. The pitching matchups set up fairly well for the Halos, but tomorrow night's game will be very interesting. Colon vs. Ricardo Rodriguez. Both talented, both huge question marks. So far, Texas has won 5 of 7. Flyball pitchers (like Colon) typically don't fare well in Arlington. We'll see. Tonight, Drese is due for a thumping (2.5 K/9 last 5 starts). Escobar typically keeps it in the park too. Could be a chance to get 2. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Spanning the Halo 101

2004-07-19T19:25:00.000-04:00

Welcome to Spanning the Halo. The "101" doesn't mean that this is a class, it's simply an "episode" number. This is the 1st edition of the first season. Next will be 102 and so on. What STH is is an exclusive look inside the numbers and such for your fantasy Halos. It can be a tool to take an different look at the stats to show you just what's goin on as well as keep you in the loop on all the latest Halo news. In other words, you don't have to have a fantasy team for this to be beneficial to you. This inaugural episode will take a look at news, stats, and trends, and we're gonna have some fun doing it. Because really, what baseball fan doesn't love to talk baseball?

Let's see what's on the menu:

Raul Mondesi: According to the team website, his minor league rehab at Single A Rancho Cucamonga is going very well. I'm not sure how 1-8 with 2 K and 1 BB is good, but those are his stats so far. He took the weekend off. But Mondesi's been saying he's been ready for quite some time. What his hurry is I'm not so sure, because here's a map of the Angel outfield:

LF: Guillen
CF: Anderson
RF: Guerrero
DH: Salmon/DaVanon
4th OF: Whoever isn't DHing
5th OF: Mondesi

What's he wanna do? Hurry up to come back and sit? Looks like he could use the work. Here's a guy who'll only rehab at Rancho Cucamonga because he thinks he's too much of a name to get on a plane and go to Arkansas or Salt Lake. His one hit came in a game that saw the Rancho Quakes rack up 19 hits and only Mondesi could only manage one. Now, I realize that he's been on the shelf for a while, but he's been makin' noise about coming back sooner than expected for a couple of weeks now, but the Angels wouldn't acknowledge that he was close. Now that they finally are, really, what's the big deal? The Mondesi signing is looking worse and worse all the time, and unless another outfielder bites the dust for an extended period of time, it will be a bad one.

Remember this--for his career, Mondesi is a .289 hitter in the NL. His AL career average is much, much worse though at .251. Now, granted, more of those AL ABs have come in the time some might call "past his prime", but they're also the most recent stats, which means they're also probably the best read of his ability now.

Look, I understand what Mondesi is trying to do. I'd do it too. He has to know that he's got no spot on this Angel team next year and being only 33 he wants to make enough noise that he can catch on somewhere else in '05. I'll tell you what, though, I think he's going to have to rely on his name recognition, because this ain't Disney, and there are just too many Angels in the Outfield.

Jarrod Washburn: If you've frequented ITH to some degree or if you've happened to catch two or three of his starts, you know that Jarrod Washburn has been incredibly fortunate due to his gaudy run support and a heapin'-hoppin'-helpin' of good luck to boot. Am I totally correct or is something else taking place here? Let's go to the videotape!

That stats don't lie. His 8.6 runs of support per 9 innings leads the majors, the Angels have scored double digits for him 7 times in his 18 starts, and twice he's given up 6 ER or more and still not taken the loss (on 4/7 he even got the win). Wash has been eating his Frosted Lucky Charms, no doubt about it.

What brings reason for scrutiny into his many strokes of luck this season though is his last month of performance. Let's look at those stats compared to his yearly totals:

Season: 10-4, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 61 K, 27 BB
Last 6 starts: 3-1, 1.73 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 18 K, 7 BB

Is this a fluke too? Let me show why, to some degree, I think it is.

Six of his 7 ER in this stint were surrendered in one bad game versus Oakland. Otherwise, he's got 31 IP with 1 single, solitary solo HR as a mark against him. That was Craig Wilson of the Pirates, who's an excellent hitter, so we'll allow him that one. But that's where the good news ends.

During the offseason I became acquanited with two statistics that, to that point, I wouldn't have known if they'd walked up and smacked me in the face. They are hit rate (H%) and strand rate (S%). These were introduced to me by an excellent baseball analysis site, Baseball HQ, which if you haven't visited, you're really missing out. Yeah, I know Baseball Prospectus and their PECOTA system has a lotta the pub, but this is much simpler and for my money, just as effective. I see the merits of PECOTA, but when I can break down the numbers using the formulas myself, I'm a whole lot more apt to believe the data.

Check this out: hit rate (H%) is basically the number of balls hit in play for hits that don't leave the yard. To make a long story short, the mean for the majors is around 30%. If a pitcher's hit rate varies from that mean number by more than, say, 3%, then he's either benefitting from good luck (27% of less) or just can't catch a break (33% or more). The data backs it up that eventually it all comes back to the mean. Well, Jarrod's hit rate during his last 6 starts is 16%! That's right. That's uncanny good fortune.

Next is strand rate (S%). That's basically all runners allowed on base who don't score (homers are excluded as well because there's nothing a pitcher can do to strand a hitter who hits a homer). Typically, starters hover around 72% as a mean value. What's Jarrod's S% in his last 6 starts? 92%. That will not hold up over the long term. Now, obviously, I understand that you can't have a low ERA without stranding runners, so of course his strand is going to be high, plus remember 5 of the runs he allowed were HRs, leaving no runners to strand. Nonetheless, the 16% hit rate shows that Jarrod isn't just mowing down these hitters.

Speaking of mowing down people, something that's a lot more obvious to the casual observer (who probably hasn't ever heard of H% or S%) is this--a 4.5 K/9. That's really bad. The only thing saving him in this department is his 1.7 BB/9. The control is great, but unless he can fan more batters, the 4.5 K/9 is way too low to hang your hat on. The AL average is 6.2 K/9, if that gives you any idea how far from the mediocre he is, and while 1.7 K/9 may not sound like much, note this--only 45 pitchers in the AL currently qualify for the ERA title (1 IP per game played). Of those 45, Jarrod ranks 32nd in K/9. Only 17 of those 45 oft-used pitchers manage to reside above the 6.2 average mark.

In other words, it's been lucky. Real lucky for Jarrod. I'd expect a spike in his ERA soon and considering it's already 4.32, that might not be very palatable.

Darin Erstad: Erstad spent a month on the DL, but since coming back, he's causing fantasy owners to at least give him a look posting a .355 average, with 3 HR, and 12 RBI, 16 R, and 6 SB in a month back on the field. I've warned people away from DE all year, saying in the preseason that he may just turn out to the least productive 1B in the majors.

Is he? The numbers say no. So--am I finally going to come around? Also. . .no.

My admonition against rostering him isn't as strong as it used to be, but I still think it would be easy to be deceived about what you're getting. Those numbers above sure sound nice, but all but the stolen bases are misleading. Batters have a hit rate too. We talked about that above with pitchers. Now, while most batters tend to hover around 30% for their own hit rate, hitters are different in that they tend to have an individual hit rate which is usually an average of their hit rates from the previous three years. Erstad's average hit rate from 2001-2003 is, coincidentally, 30%.

As I said, Erstad's hit .355 since returning from the DL. It's important to note that that average is a result of a very favorable 41% hit rate. If Erstad were getting hits at a "normal" rate for him, he'd be hitting .288 over the last month. That's about what you can expect. He's been hitting out of the 6 spot lately as well, which could bode well for his RBI total, but his runs will take a dip. The speed should hold, as I said, but the 3 HR honestly is a fluke. Now, I hear what you're saying. "A measly three home runs is a fluke?" Yeah, that's right. I won't drop more new stats on you in this episode, but suffice it to say that the power (what little there is) is a blip that won't hold. A groudball/flyball ratio of 1.73 should tell you that without any other statistical analysis.

Long story short, if you realize what you're getting--decent average, speed potential, occasional RBI prizes, with reduced run scoring and no power--you can pick up DE with no illusions should you need help filling a spot in your OF. Please, whatever you do, don't pick him up for a 1B or corner infield spot. You can do much better, even in AL leagues.

That's gonna do it for the premiere episode of Spanning the Halo. Look forward to more in-depth statistical analysis as well as news and notes in future episodes. Also, if you have any questions, e-mail me at insidethehalo@insightbb.com.

Here's Your Local Forecast

2004-07-14T14:45:00.000-04:00

I spent the weekend traveling in the van of a scuba diving center that played only Weather Channel-type music, so forgive me for my silly weather headlines (As an aside, scuba diving is very cool). The Angels, in the only day of the year between Opening Day and the end of September that has no MLB event scheduled, can sit back and look at the remainder of their season. 75 games left, 32 in division. 14 against Seattle, 12 vs. Texas, 6 vs. Oakland. Records? 5-1 vs. SEA, 2-5 vs. TEX, 6-7 vs. OAK. 12 of those games are coming up before August. I still don't like the Angels/Rangers matchup. But first, Boston and Cleveland. Bad pitching (i.e. recent starts by Colon, Escobar, Sele), won't work against those two. Only 2.5 back, but the rest of July doesn't provide any breathers.

Barometer Reads 1 Big Unit Shy of Title

Whether or not adding Randy Johnson would actually make the Angels the AL favorite (I would say no), it doesn't appear as if any baseballologist will ever get to test that theory. Arte Moreno basically ruled out that the Angels would provide anything close in value to attain The Unit. The Orange County Register and LA Times both report that Moreno won't force GM Stoneman to make a trade and the latter of the papers says the D-Backs wanted 2 of 3 between Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis, and Dallas McPherson. Moreno doesn't want to sacrifice building a championship team through the farm system to "rent" Johnson for a year and a half, meaning they wouldn't look to resign him. With Anaheim out, it looks more and more like Randy could just wear pinstripes in August. We'll see.

Long Term Outlook is Sunny

Speaking of those guys everyone seems to want when talking Angel trades, let's check in. A big deal was made about McPherson's earlier tear in AA that eventually got him promoted to AAA. Now, in his first 16 games at Salt Lake, he's hitting .355 with 8 HR and 20 RBI. I'd say that'll work--alhtough he recently went 0-6 with 6 K. That's dropped his average about 40 points. He also has 6 errors in that short span as well. That's awful. Casey Kotchman, who saw time in Anaheim earlier this year, is hitting .314 with 15 RBI in 18 games. Mathis (AA) has 11 HR and 41 RBI, but is only hitting .262. With ages of 24, 21, and 21, it's no wonder the Angels don't wanna deal. With holes to fill at 3B and 1B (Erstad is a hole, okay?) and Bengie playing only half the time, it all looks good.

Cold Front of Ortiz Moving Out?

I sure hope not. If I knew in March I would've typed that, I would've laughed out loud. But Ortiz against Sele is an easy choice for me. Ortiz still wants to start or else, but unless he's in the deal for Johnson, I don’t see what the Angels could get that would make them any better. The Mets wanted him, and so do the White Sox and Orioles. I say wanted because the talk has lessened over the last two weeks and I think Ortiz is finally getting the picture that he's not gonna get a trade just because he wants one. He's not Nomar, and he's certainly not Shaq. Anyway, the likelihood of him leaving seems small. That said, we can only hope that he'll be back in the rotation soon, because now that he has something to prove, he may just pitch very well with a chip on his shoulder.

Severe Mondesi Watch Has Been Cancelled

Whew. That's a relief. I mean, all of two people were keeping an eye on that one and one of them's Raul. The other is probably that guy that sued him for all his money. The rest of us could care less that the investigation into his move to Anaheim revealed nothing wrong with the situation. Now that means he can get back to, well, just being injured. Signing Mondesi was a panic move that basically cost the Angels 1.1 million and netted them a guy who has the same first name as the guy who played Gomez Addams in the The Addams Family movie. They could've signed Raul Rekow, who plays the congas for Santana, and gotten the same production. Mondesi should've sang like the little piggy and just stayed wee-wee-wee all the way home in the Dominican Republic.

It's a Bird! It's a Tornado! No! It's a Fantasy Halo!

John Lackey gets the Halo for Week 14. Check this out: 2-0, 2.84 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10 K. That's pretty solid on a team with a starter ERA of 4.92 that gives up 1.3 HR per 9 innings. Other than Washburn, he's the only Halo starter with an ERA under 4 over the last month. It's his first fantasy halo of the year. How does he stack up halowise with the rest of the team? The totals are at Inside the Halo (insidethehalo.blogspot.com). As far as June goes, Vlad gets the Golden Halo for the month with this line: .336, 7 HR, 30 RBI (!), 21 R, and 5 SB. Is it any wonder he's right in the running for the Triple Crown? 3rd in AVG (.345), 6th in HR (6 back of Manny's 26), 2nd in RBI (one back of Ortiz's 78).

QTR: The Climate Report

The Quarterly Ticker Report is up at Inside the Halo in case you haven't checked it out yet (and if you haven't, what in the world have you been doing?). It's more of a climate report, looking at broader trends of the direction your fantasy Halo players have been going and what you can expect in the future. Hope you find it helpful. Second half starts tomorrow and I'll be spanning the nation of games with my newly installed toy. Thank you, God, for satellite television. Four against the BoSox next. Being my least favorite team in all of baseball, I'd love to see nothing less than a Halo sweep. Lowe seems like a good Sock to start whitewashing. Happy 2nd half to all, especially us Halo fans. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Quarterly Ticker Report

2004-07-12T12:06:00.000-04:00

We're halfway done. Teams can finally begin to justify the panic they feel in their Divisional Dungeons and set themselves up to make a run, give up, or for us fortunate enough to be in keepers, reload for next year. It may be almost mid-July, but there's still time to make a run with the right moves. There's not much time to keep saying "there's still time", but for now, you can.

What Inside the Halo is going to do for you is take a brief look at those players that are being rostered by the fantasy GMs out there and devise a "market strategy" in a few words to fill you in on their value and how they can affect your team in the future. We've based those worthy of including on ESPN's ownership ratings for mixed and non-mixed leagues, and if a player is owned 50% or greater of either a mixed or AL league, then he'll be included in our report (All ownership percentages are as of 7/8). It's your ITH QTR (we like acronyms). Let's roll it.

The 100/100 Club: Fully owned in both mixed and AL leagues.

...Garret Anderson: Business as usual. He doesn't walk much, but consistently smashes the ball. He doesn't smash it enough to keep his average from falling a little bit. He's had some fortunate hits and the tide will probably turn the other way. With a .231 average in July, the tide may already be turning just a tad...Chone Figgins: He's striking out more, his contact percentage has dropped 7% in the last month...The speed is for real. More triples than doubles (12 to 11) and will probably steal around 40...Forget the HR/RBI, the rest is gold...Vladimir Guerrero: The man is an absolute freak. He doesn't walk much either, but 70+ RBI, 70+ runs, .340+ AVG, 20 HR--are you kidding me? Don't worry about his health anymore. He's running and looking great. The bat is a wand in his hand--or a mallet--or a WMD, whatever...Jose Guillen: Here's another one that doesn't walk much (224 BB as a team is 13th in the AL...has a lot to do with .336 team OBP, which is 10th in AL). His average should stay fairly high though because he almost always makes hard contact. That helps...I wasn't convinced that he was for real after last year. It seems now that he probably is...Troy Percival: Early problems look like they were definitely injury-related. It's a small sample, but he's looked better since his return...Don't get too excited though. His K/BB ratio is still just 1.0. If that doesn't say RED FLAG: DANGER for a closer, I don't know what does. He's seen his best years, but could still help you out this season...Francisco Rodriguez: This is the guy that should be the closer, but whatta ya gonna do? 13.8 K/9...4.31 K/BB...shivers. If he were a closer, he'd be mentioned in the same breath as Gagne, Smoltz, Wagner, and Rivera. Acquire accordingly...

The Rest of the Angels' Portfolio: Ownership listed as percentages (Mixed/AL)

...Bartolo Colon (85/97): It is time to prepare to abandon ship. I'm not sayin' it's over for BC this year, but it's close...Since May, he's allowed at least 1 HR in every start but one. You would think it's has to stop, but it sure doesn't look that way...His K/BB is down in the last month or so and that was thus far his only silver lining...So far ERA and BAA has risen every month (it's getting close to astronomically ridiculous). Pack your lifeboat...Jeff DaVanon (4/89): In a platoon for now, which is never good for fantasy production... He's hitting .133 in July, so his luck appears to be running out. To use a phrase that the legendary Mr. Miyagi might, I'll say that Jeff DaVanon's best "karate" or "fantasy production" is not still inside him. It's been let out. AL owners should deal and soon...Brendan Donnelly (17/97): Can be had very easily right now in mixed leagues. I'd acquire...He's okay healthwise. You shouldn't expect '03-type stats, but he'll still be very helpful if he gets the innings...It's a small sample, but he's hit the ground running with a 10.7 K/9...David Eckstein (4/100): Frustratingly streaky...hit .341 in June and .241 thus far in July. Overall, he's closer to the .241, but he's still definitely worth owning for the hot stretches...Darin Erstad (24/100): I continue to maintain that he's bad and much worse than his numbers indicate...He continues to show otherwise with .291 and 9 SB right now...Know this. The power that somehow resulted in 25 HR in '00 is gone. Tumbleweed-blowing-in-the-dust gone. Erstad and Chone Figgins in a HR Derby would be both interesing and tragic to see...Kelvim Escobar (58/100): Here's one of those guys who isn't great (partly because he's getting no run support), but he certainly won't hurt you. He's off to a rocky July, but it's most likely a blip. However, watch the walks. He's walked 3 or more in 4 of his last 5 starts and the time he didn't he hit 2 batters, so it's basically the same--a free base runner. He's also shown a propensity to get wild in the past. Watch carefully...Not quite as overpowering as he was earlier in the year...Adam Kennedy (30/99): Looks like he may be heating up. It's probably a flash in the pan though...Hopefully the Angels will include him in a deal for Cabrera if the Cubs don't get him...He's got a little pop, speed, but his OBP kills a lot of his SB potential though (.316)...John Lackey (1/95): ALERT: Take a look at Lackey. Ks up, BBs down, he's been the best Halo starter over the last month plus. Since the beginning of June (7 starts), he's given up more than 2 ER twice (one time it was 3 ER). He's only walked more than 2 twice in 16 starts...Done all this fairly quietly. Anyone could use this guy right now. Very easy pick up in mixed, probably fairly easy trade material in AL. Buy...Bengie Molina (3/88): Almost always makes contact, the average is for real...Doesn't play enough to hit the 20 HR potential he's capable of. Sketchy health, but he can hit...Raul Mondesi (13/61): I laughed when I saw that per my guidelines, I would be required to include Mondesi in this report. What are 13% of mixed owners and 61% of AL owners thinking? He's NOT GONNA PLAY! Even if/when he comes back, he's probably the sixth guy in the mix for OF/DH. He's hits .236 (.722 OPS) career in his first AB of the game (think pinch hitter)...Ramon Ortiz (1/61): Value completely depends on whether he gets another chance to start. Can be serviceable without a HR problem...His biggest problem could be motivation. If he's got something to prove (like this year), it seems the chip on his shoulder makes him better...Tim Salmon (1/93): Health and PT an issue...Platoon is not going to work with him. He probably should get majority of the ABs between he and DaVanon. Will he?...That .228 AVG will rise with more ABs...Aaron Sele (1/95): The Angels don't have a bigger 'sell' candidate, not even Colon...He's a little piggy hangin' by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin...Has struck out 10 batters--in his last five starts...3.2 K/9, .272 BAA...Get rid of him now...Scot Shields (57/100): Rough patch of late, but it's mostly bad luck...12.0 K/9 over last month...Don't underestimate him. He gets lost easily in a bullpen with so many good pitchers with name recognition...Jarrod Washburn (49/100): His great control is his biggest asset, but his K/9 is getting lower...He keeps the ball in the park. He's given up half of his 14 bombs in only two bad starts...The fortune he's had could very easily change with all the run support and his 4.62 ERA. Could be a good trade blocker...

That's a look at your QTR. Any further analysis needed should be addressed to insidethehalo@insightbb.com.

Everyone's Healthy. . .So. . .

2004-07-07T18:57:00.000-04:00

A big deal was made about the Angels defying expectations by remaining in first place in the AL West despite injuries to Garret Anderson, Troy Glaus, Tim Salmon, Darin Erstad, and Brendan Donnelly. Right around a month ago, the Angels saw Anderson, Salmon, and Erstad all return to the lineup within a week. Strangely, while the Angels were on a roll then, there is no question that they've dropped off in performance--and win totals--since. Since June 12, the Angels area a very unimpressive 8-14. Patterns like that won't win what is considered possibly the best division in baseball. What's going on? Well, Mike Scioscia pointed out recently in the Chicago Sun Times that over the last 30 days, the Halos are hitting .230 with runners is scoring position.

That no doubt has something to do with it. How about being 10th in team ERA in June? How about the much-discussed plight of Fats Colon? Three of the five starters have ERAs in the last 30 days over 4.50, and one of the two who doesn't (Escobar) has walked 18 in his last 39 innings. Ramon Ortiz is the hottest guy that's started and he's in the bullpen. It's certainly not for lack of speed--the Halos had an AL-high 31 SBs in June. However, their BB/K ratio was bad at 0.43--only Texas was worse at 0.36. They also had the highest AB/HR ratio in the AL, only going deep 19 times in the month. There are a lot of intangibles here, but the bottom line is that the Angels aren't winning and the other teams are.

My Name is. . .Ramon

Ortiz still wants out. It's rumored that the Mets want him pretty bad, but basically all they're offering is some Animal Crackers and a Mento. There have also reportedly been in talks with the Orioles and White Sox, who could both really use some pitching. The Oriole deal would be ridiculous, considering the chip they're offering is most likely Buddy Groom, according to ESPN. Jose Valentin was reportedly the offer from the Pale Hose, but that really doesn't help the Halos either. Ramon's only got an option for 2005, so it wouldn't be ridiculous for them to move him. Will they? Not without something significant. I'd love to see Sele go, but the Angels would have to pick up a large part of his salary. He's also got the better numbers, so some team might bite if he were offered.

My Name is. . .Fats

Here's something you don't see every day. Colon's ownership in mixed leagues: 73%. In AL leagues: 37%. Apparently, even without another entire league of players, the AL owners have decided that the Kazuhito Tadanos and Erik Bedards of the fantasy world are better options. I wouldn't completely disagree. BC's last start was another terrible one in which he didn't strike out a single batter. He lasted 4 innings, 8 hits, and 7 earned runs. That's two starts in a row where he walked more than he struck out. The two starts before that were fine, both at least 7 innings and no more than 3 ER. However, those were the only two starts since at least May 14 that have lowered his ERA by the end of the game. This season isn’t over for Bart yet, but it getting close to time to waive bye-bye.

Our names are. . .Tim and Jeff

Both of these guys have been basically rendered useless or at least dangerous to own in fantasy. They're still producing, but neither are getting the full time PT they want and Scioscy is in a no-win situation either way. Some would say it's a good problem to have. Neither have been especially productive, although Salmon has had 7 RBIs in the past week, he's only had 4 hits, which puts his average around .250. The Angels have faced a lot of lefties lately, so the splits have been pretty even, but of course that won't remain true over the long term if this platoon situation holds. Salmon did get one start against a right-hander on Sunday and went 2-4. DaVanon's got speed and some pop, but Salmon's still a good hitter. Right now it's a risk to own either, but you take what you can get.

Los Angeles Angels?

Word out of California today is that owner Arte Moreno is looking to expand the sponsorship opportunities for the Halos and broaden the fan base by attaching the name of the second-largest market to the team's name. The current lease at Angels Stadium requires that the team be called the Anaheim Angels, so it's unsure how far this thing can go. It's certainly possible this could help in broadening the scope of the team's "national importance" in the long run, although some would say that a world championship just two years ago will do okay as well. Folks in Anaheim are sure to not like the possible change, but it's really unclear at this point whether or not this particular venture has wings to begin with.

Quality Over Quantity

Sorry to say, but the Halo Daily website is being discontinued for now. I just don't have the manpower (considering it's only me) to keep it updated when I have Cincinnati correspondent duties as well. I will, however, focus on making the Inside the Halo site even better, with extra columns and analysis that will only appear there (think DVD special features). Sometimes everything that needs to be said can't be covered in seven blocks anyway. Coming soon at Inside the Halo, I'm taking a look at mid-season report cards and seeing whether Angels that are being rostered by fantasy owners are making the grade. We'll see what to expect for the second half and beyond. Check that out at insidethehalo.blogspot.com. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

This Just In. . .Bartolo Colon is Fat

2004-06-30T13:50:00.000-04:00

Woo. News flash. First it was just bad luck, then it was the ankle, now he's fat. It's amazing what happens when someone with a baseball background and ESPN attached to their sound byte opens their mouth and says something. Hey, I agree with Dave Campbell. It's time it was said. Is it going to make a difference? Not according to the Angels. Scioscy in the LA Times: "Could Bart lose 5 or 6 pounds? Sure. . .You're talking a handful of pounds. Not 20 or 30 pounds." Your managing skills are better than your math, Skip. Jarrod Washburn: "I don't think he's fat." Yeah, Wash, and I don't think you've been incredibly lucky with all your run support. Look, I know they're just standing behind their guy, but when the doors shut, they need to tell him the truth.

The media guide has him listed as 240. Okay. Whatever. Then I would like to be listed as play-by-play guy for KCAL while we're makin' up stuff. Colon even finally went the excuse route, saying his ankle still isn't 100%, anything to make people quit talking about his gut. The stats (ERA, .BAA): April: 4.06, .268. May: 6.37, .289. June: 7.99, .324. That's called a trend. Here's a thought. There wouldn't be so much pressure on that ankle if he weighed less. It's like walking around carrying a lead tube around your waist. BC, man, the time is now. Atkins, Subway, South Beach--it doesn't matter, but nothin' else is working, so don't tell me losing weight isn't a great idea. I bet Bill Stoneman can think of 51 million reasons to start counting your carbs.

MVP

I'm starting early this year. For me, AL MVP isn't even close right now. Third in average, one behind the HR lead, five back from the RBI lead. It's ridiculous to think that Guerrero doesn't have a shot at the Triple Crown. He'd be the first in 37 years. Yaz was the last to do for the BoSox. It doesn't matter if the Angels lose every game the rest of the year, if Vlad does it, he's the MVP, regardless of the other numbers. That's probably obvious, but the voters tend to ignore losers. The Halos should be there so it won't matter, but with Vlad projecting back to double digit SBs, any deal to get him will help you. I would trade anyone for him. That's right. Anyone. Pujols. Bonds. Beltran. Proabaly even A-Rod. Why? He doesn't walk as much as any of them, giving him more mashing opportunities.

The Fast Corner

With Boone going to the Tribe, and Glaus basically gone (probably for good from ANA), Chone Figgins is now officially the Halos 3B for the rest of the year. With his offense, Scioscia has nowhere else to put him and keep him in the lineup everyday. He'll pretty much bridge the gap until McPherson is called up--which could be next week or late next year. Figgins is safe to play every day now, and if you can take the hit to your power numbers, Figgins will keep lighting up the board with runs, SBs, and average. Who wouldn't with Vlad, Garret, and Guillen directly behind them? Not to sell him short though, Figgins is a very good player who's just finally getting his chance. Cool part? He's slugging well over the league average at .461. Eleven doubles and triples will do that.

Post-Closer Depression

You picked up or traded for K-Rod for the saves. Why wouldn't you? I did it. Percival is back and has officially been given has post back at closer. Should we moan and wail and beat our collective chests at this injustice? Nah. We still have the best middle reliever in the game. Here's something to shout to the rooftops--right now he's tied for 20th in the AL in strikeouts. He's a reliever, people. Everyone ranked above him has thrown a minimum of 40 more innings than him. Forty. The ERA is 1.06, the WHIP is 0.87, the BAA .171--we have absolutely nothing to complain about (not that we were). His K/9 is just a little over 14 right now. There are only three higher and they've thrown less than 15 innings combined, so small sample size. The K in K-Rod could also stand for King.

Ortiz Out of Bullpen or Out of Town?

Ramon Ortiz wants a trade again. He doesn't want to sit in the bullpen every game. He says Scot Shields has bad breath. Honestly, the man just wants to start. He oughta be. Sele, and his giant paycheck will fold, I think, soon enough. Bill Stoneman, if he has a clue, probably realizes this. He just can't say it. I think Ortiz will be back in the rotation soon enough, which is why I'd be surprised if the Angels trade him. Too bad the Mets or Orioles don't want Sele. But hey, if they get desparate enough, you never know. Ortiz isn't wonderful (I've ripped him plenty for now), but he's better than Sele and should be in the 5 hole. Right now, he's easy to get for spot starts in mixed leagues (1%). I wouldn't be shy about picking him up should he get the starting call again.

Odds and Ends

Dallas McPherson has 5 HRs in 25 ABs so far at AAA Salt Lake. I'm largely in favor of waiting, but how long will the Angels wait? I can't think it would be much longer than September. He could get called up for some work then. Stay tuned. . .The last week before the break could be big for Halo bats. They'll be in US Cellular and Skydome. Balls could be flying all over the place. . .Another bad Colon stat. He's 7th in the AL in most pitches per inning pitched (17.1). You know, maybe it's just burnout. He's thrown almost 220+ innings the last three years. . .Check out Halo Daily (halodaily.blogspot.com) and Inside the Halo (insidethehalo.blogspot.com) for updates. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Lakers/Clippers Play 3 This Weekend/Balk Rule

2004-06-25T15:46:00.000-04:00

Okay, yeah, I'm still thinking about the draft last night. But the LA Clippers of baseball are not who some might think, but the do share the same colors. The Clippers last saw the playoffs in 1997. The Dodgers last saw the playoffs in 1996. The Lakers last won a title 3 seasons ago. The Angels last won a title 2 years ago. Now, I know that the Dodgers have 5 World Championships to the Angels one, but I'm talkin' about the present people, and right now the Dodgers are the closest thing that baseball has to the Clippers. Live with it, Dodger fan. If not for Gagne, you'd have about as many stars as the Clippers too. Now watch all the Dodger fans e-mail and threaten my life. At least there'd be a little heat in this rivalry for once. Right now? About as much as Clips/Lake Show.

Tim Hudson, You Just Balked? What Are You Gonna Do?

"I'm goin' to Disneyland!" Hudson accused Scioscy of playing "Mickey Mouse baseball" after he alerted an ump to Hudson's "double-stop" technique in the stretch, resulting in a balk soon after. How did Scioscy respond? He cracked a joke and then praised Hudson on his talent. Now who looks like Goofy? I'm not in favor of getting rid of the balk rule, a la Bill James in an recent ESPN chat, but it's clear there needs to be some enforcement or alterations to the deal. It's confusing and it's way too vague. I mean, come on, what is that fake to third, throw/fake to first thing? That's gotta go. If I wanted to see a pitcher dance, I'd watch a KoolAid commercial. Do I have a solution? No, but I'm not paid to do that kind of thing. I'd feel bad if I were though.

Bullpen Clears Throat, Doesn't Cough

The Angels bullpen has the 3rd best ERA in the AL and the 2nd best K/BB ratio in all of MLB (behind only HOU) at 2.48. They've pitched 230 innings and fanned 230 batters. Yet for some reason the NC Times had an article yesterday declaring the bullpen "cough[ed] up the lead and the game". I don't think I'd imply that it was entirely the bullpen's fault. I'd be more apt to blame that the Angels .264 average and .315 OBP against LHP this season--particularly when that lefty is Mark Mulder. I'm not sayin' the NC Times is wrong, I'm just sayin' that fault is not entirely with the bullpen. Shields made basically one bad pitch. In related news, Percival, K-Rod, Shields, Donnelly, and Ortiz (if he goes back to the pen) will all help out your fantasy team quite a bit.

Percival on the Cusp

Troy Percival threw a simulated game and continued his campaign to skip a minor league rehab stint before returning to the bullpen. It appears as if he'll win that battle and be back as early as tomorrow. What does that mean as an owner of K-Rod? Well, with Dotel going to Oakland, and Lidge becoming the closer in Houston, it means that you probably have the best set-up man in baseball now. Sorry. What's interesting is that another candidate for that position could come from the same team. Brendan Donnelly has thrown one bad pitch since returning from that long stint on the DL. It left the yard, but otherwise, he looks strong. Is there any chance Percy wouldn't close? I'd say there's a better chance of trading him. Takers? Only the White Sox would need him, but I don't see it.

Log Jam

We knew this could happen. Garret's healthy. DaVanon's hot. Salmon's back. For some reason, the Angels signed Raul Mondesi and he's determined to come back. Who plays? Right now it appears to be a platoon at DH between DaVanon and Salmon--one that's strange considering Salmon is 0-for-the-season against lefties. But like Percival, Salmon is an icon vet. You think he won't get his cuts? DaVanon should play, at least until he proves he can't, but Salmon still has pop in the bat too. It's a good problem to have for the actual team, a bad one for any of you who own anyone but the regulars. Don't expect Anderson, Guerrero, or Guillen to sit much--one, because they're good, and two, because Guillen tends to throw heavy things when not penciled in the lineup.

Stars Literally on the Rise?

Dallas McPherson's in his first game at AAA Salt Lake: 3-3, with a 2B and a HR. This doesn't bode well for patience in the front office. He was even intentionally walked in his first game at AAA! Please, let the man take his time. Sign Boone. Leave Figgins at 3B and replace him with Amezaga in the late innings with a lead. Don't bring up Dallas. . .yet. It will help if he gets significant time at Salt Lake. Of course, Stoneman and Moreno probably have little thoughts about what I say. In other AAA news, Kotchman will almost certainly get the call back up if Erstad is DLed now that Percival is back.

Fun With Numbers

Chone Figgins is hitting .583 this season with an 0-2 count. Only twice has he not at least worked one ball in the count before striking out. Ten of his 19 stolen bases have come during day games. May not sound interesting, but the Angels have only played 16 day games. Vlad has swung at the first pitch in 26% of his ABs. Honestly, I thought it would be more. The Angels have 67 SB, 6 more than anyone else in the majors, despite not having anyone with 20, while each of the next 3 teams in line do. Kelvim Escobar has struck out almost 29% of all Oakland batters he's faced in '04, yet he still has a 5.40 ERA in three starts against them. Opponent are batting .459 against Aaron Sele in his first 15 pitches. Yikes. Okay, time to put the abacus up. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

I'm Bi-Leagual!/Beltran to Anaheim?

2004-06-22T16:39:00.000-04:00

I'm not sure how that sounds (either like I'm a little kinky or very articulate--neither of which is true), but as of today, I will now be reporting on a team in each league. The Cincinnati Reds post opened up and if you're a baseball fan, and an opportunity comes up to yak incessantly about your home team, you take it. So I did. But Hark! Angels' fans need not worry. I'll still be singing over here in the AL as well (I wouldn't give up talking incessantly about one of my favorite left coast teams either). It's a big plate, and I'll be in a "feeling out" period, but be sure to swing over and catch the Reds coverage as well on that page. I'm pumped and ready to go, giving you the scoop from both leagues. My only decision left is whether or not to use the Designated Typist.

Unfinished Business

I noticed last week that I didn't include the winner of Week 10's Silver Fantasy Halo in my column. Well, to review quickly, the decision was easy. The winner was Kelvim Escobar, who posted a 1.20 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and 14 K in 15 IP. Sure he didn't get any wins, but that's not his fault. A stellar week for the Angels best starter this season. Week 11 has past now as well and the new halo goes to Garret Anderson. His line isn't overly impressive: 9-26 (.346), 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R--but it was the best the Angels had in a week where they only plated 16 runs. Halo tally? Figgins, Guerrero, Anderson, all with 2. Colon, Erstad, Guillen, Sele, and Escobar all have 1.

Tailor Made Deal? No Thanks

Everyone who remotely follows fantasy baseball has probably heard that Carlos Beltran will soon be swinging his bat in another city. Depending on where he ends up, Beltran fans are poised to react with celebration (Chicago) or lament (San Diego). What's interesting is that neither, nay, anyone in the whole league has a deal that could land Beltran as fast as Anaheim. KC GM Allan Baird has proclaimed he wants a young catcher and third baseman in exchange for Beltran. In an incredibly deep farm system, the Angels are sending players from just those two positions to the Minor League Futures (i.e. All-Star) Game this season--Dallas McPherson and Jeff Mathis. Both are outstanding prospects and would be very enticing for Baird. Will it happen? Angels GM Bill Stoneman says no.

And thank goodness. McPherson and Mathis both look to be sure-fire major leaguers when they've put in their time honing their games at Arkansas and Salt Lake. The Angels need a 3B and McPherson should be ready to scratch that itch by 2006 (and hopefully no sooner, please don't rush him up). Stoneman is completely happy with Guillen, Anderson, and Guerrero. Why wouldn't he be? Fine, you say. I still want Beltran. DH Anderson. He's not a true CF anyway. Then where to Salmon and DaVanon go? Bottom line--the Halos don't need (and that sounds weird to say) Beltran. And Stoneman knows it thankfully, because it would be easy to get caught up in the hype. So any Beltran rumors could be put to rest when it comes to Anaheim. We like our OF just fine, thank you.

Is it Spring Training Again?

I looked at the calendar and it said June, but I heard something this weekend that I usually only hear between mid-February and the start of the season. Troy Percival was quoted as saying, in relation to his strained forearm, that "he's healthy and he feels the best he has in years." I'm not sure Troy knew it was June. That's good news for Percival owners, though, as he's scheduled for a BP session today, according to the LA Times, and other on Thursday. He wants to skip the rehab assignment and do a couple of simulated games instead, which means he could be ready as early as late weekend. K-Rod owners, hold your breath, because Frankie's stay at closer is almost over. The job is TP's unless he comes back and proves he's NOT just as "healthy as ever."

Mending Wings: Outpatients?

Speaking of simulated games, Aaron Sele threw one and the Angels reported that he gave up 2 hits over about 30 pitches of work. I've hear often about simulated games (way too often, in fact), but I've yet to hear a performance report attached in quantifiable terms. Usually it's either "he did fine" or "his arm did, in fact, fall completely off". No numbers or anything. Regardless, that's about 2 IP, I would say. So Sele has a simulated game WHIP of 1.00--however that makes you feel about owning him. Doesn't do much for me. He's slated to start Saturday. Also, Jarrod Washburn's problem is still being classified as minor, so as of now he's penciled in for Friday. Ramon Ortiz will get one more start on Thursday, then I suppose it's back to the bullpen for now.

Odds and Ends

Hope you got a chance to read the Griffey article here at ITH. Also, don’t forget to check out Halo Daily (halodaily.blogspot.com) as well for daily fantasy updates on the Halos. . .Great start last night against the Elephant Men. Of course, now that Angels face Hudson tonight and Mulder on Thursday. Watch Colon tonight and see if he can possibly keep it in the park. That'd be a great start for him. Currently, his HR/9 is 2.3 (I just shuddered in my seat). . .Any questions you have, e-mail insidethehalo@insightbb.com. Also, click the e-mail notification button at the top right of this page to be notified when it updates. . .For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Waiting for Griff-man

2004-06-21T15:42:00.000-04:00

Finally! [AP Photo]

I traveled to Great American Ball Park this week to check out Ken Griffey Jr. attempt to hit home run number 500. Hot ticket, as both games I attended (Tuesday and Wednesday) were above 35,000 in attendance. Griffey didn't hit a bomb in either game, depriving me of seeing a second person join The Mighty 500 Club in person. I watched Sammy Sosa do it last April at GABP. If I'd seen Griff do it, that would've meant I'd seen 10% of the people in club perform the feat (2 of 20). Alas, Homerville 500 is still only Population: 19.

Here's what's interesting, though. I, a huge Reds fan, couldn't help leave both of those games (BOTH Reds wins) a little disappointed. And I could tell I wasn't alone. I should've been estatic that the Reds had halted their 7-game losing streak and taken the first two of three against the hard-hitting Rangers. I was, I suppose, but I was also looking for that individual feat probably even more than the team one. Sadly, that outlook is not uncommon and is what drives a lot of sports--and a lot of sports ratings.

Griffey hit homer #499 Sunday, June 18, in Cleveland. He's since played three games. Griff's on a bit of a roll this season, finally healthy, and he's already jacked 18 homers this year. I did some checking (thanks to Retrosheet, by the way...great site) to see if, maybe over the years, I wasn't the only fan in this position--that of driving to the ballpark day after day waiting to see a bomb that just isn't going out. It was rather interesing what I found.

NOTE: [The remainder of this column was written post-500 bomb by Griffey. The statistics are still worth hearing though, I think.]

According to history, Griffey should've hit his home run when I was there to watch. Griffey on Sunday became the 20th player to hit 500 home runs. I looked up the previous 19 players to see just how long it took them (in games) to go from 499 to 500. I was only able to get statistics for 12 of the previous 19 (Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, and Mel Ott were unfortunately the six that I couldn't round up data for). Of those 12 I could, 9 of them only played three games or less between the two home runs (Sammy Sosa actually hit his #499 in the final game of the 2002 season, but only missed his chance to hit #500 in the first three games of 2003). Of those 12, Barry Bonds, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt hit it in the very next game. Mark McGwire didn't even wait that long. He hit #499 and #500 in the same game. Reggie Jackson only took one game off between 499 and 500.

Who were the slow rollers like Griffey? Eddie Murray had 5 games and 22 ABs (2 more than Griffey) between 499 and 500. The Mick, Mickey Mantle, took 7 games and 28 ABs between homers 499 and 500. The longest? Can you guess?

Harmon Killebrew tried for 13 games and 43 at-bats before he finally smacked out number 500. The future Hall-of-Famer was most likely so relieved that he managed to relax and bomb number 501 later in the game.

It's impossible to say (for me at least) what the entire data picture would show, but it seems a trend in a large sample of what's available that 499 and 500 usually come pretty close together. For Griffey, it was a little longer than most, but he finally got it done yesterday. Unfortunately for me, it was days after I went to the ball park on back-to-back days to see him do it in person. He also did it on the road, away in St. Louis. He also did it leading off the inning--the sixth, of which I was late coming back to, having flipped away during the commerical. The replay was great though.

Oh well.

So, now that the Waiting for Griff-man Watch is over, hopefully all the flashbulbs will quit popping with every Kenny swing and the Reds can get back to completely focusing on the winning the NL Central. As for me, I'll just have to add Griffey to the list of those I saw hit number 500 on television (Palmeiro, Schimdt, Bonds, McGwire, Murray) instead of the list with one name on it (Sosa) of players I saw do it in person.

But in the future, with McGriff at 493 and Juan Gonzalez, Jeff Bagwell, and Frank Thomas all over 400, if another player makes the approach to 500 and finds himself on the 499 doorstep, don't be shy about going out to the park the next day--and the next and the next--to see him hit #500. Because history shows that it can happen very quickly.

Just not this time.

Regardless, congrats to a special player who, like the other 19 men already in the 500 Club, will deservedly grace the walls of Cooperstown in the years to come. I'm very happy for him.

One thing though, Griff. If you get to 599, I'll be back. Could ya hit 600 just a little quicker? Thanks.

Arrrrrrrgh, Matey!

2004-06-18T15:26:00.000-04:00

Shiver me timbers! The Pirates swabbed the deck with the Angels this weekend, winning 2 of 3. The "A" marked the spot for them to get their whoop up on, avastin' the scarvy scum that was the Halo offense. There were reports last night after the game of Pirates manager Lloyd McClendon hanging around the visiting Angels clubhouse, asking anyone who would listen if "Barty wanted a cracker." Apparently he was happy about Colon forking up three bombs to his starved-for-offense Buc team. It was nasty--Colon's performance, I mean. Two of those homers were to Tike Redman. Tike Redman. He of the .620 OPS Tike Redman. Gar! The Halos have now walked the plank in 9 of their last 12 games. Are you tired of pirate aphorisms? Well, then a yo ho, yo ho...let's move on.

Player Rater Rankings: Adam Kennedy: 990, Me: 989

That's a bit of an exaggeration, but unfortunately not much. Remember when I callously referred to Tike Redman's low .620 OPS just a few lines ago? Well, AK's is .602. This is the man I said in March was "the best choice for the 2B/SS spot in MLB"--another shining reason why you should probably never listen to me. If he wasn't on pace for 20 SB (which, in my defense, I did call for), he'd be absolutely worthless. I drafted him on all three of my "important" teams and he's now a member on a grand total of zero of them. If I were you (44% of you still own him in mixed leagues), I'd cut bait unless you really need the speed. Better options include Pokey Reese (not kidding), D'Angelo Jimenez, Luis Rivas, and Ryan Freel, who are all owned at less percentage than AK.

From the "Quote of the Week" Department

"Clemens has to face me too." This is Ramon Ortiz on the prospect of having to hit against Roger Clemens on Saturday in Houston. Yeah, you know, the Rocket actually called me last night 'cause he couldn't sleep. He asked me, since I cover the Angels, would I know any good way to approach the homer-inducing meat that Ramon throws. He was really concerned about it. He figured if he did smack one out, would he lose too much leg strength running around the bases and not be able to provide the 'Stros with a good enough performance on the hill? I told him to saunter around the bases. He seemed okay with that. All kidding aside, Ramon's been stellar outta the pen and will get the nod on Saturday for the DLed Sele. Against the Rocket, though, I'd wouldn't pick him up.

Mending Wings: A New Episode

The Angels continue to send their share of players to the DL. Troy Percival threw for the first time yesterday and is targeting a return in the first week of July. Bengie Molina is eligible to come off the DL on Saturday. Scioscy says he will but I'd wait on BM (no, not bowel movement) for now. Bengie isn't widely sought after in mixed leagues (2%) but if he were to be healthy (only 114 ABs so far) he's on pace for 17 HR and 92 RBI with 500 ABs. Of course, he most certainly won't reach that number, but it's just an idea of how good he could be if he was 100%. Eck could see DL time, and he won't be much use this weekend, one way or the other. Erstad is back, wearing a knee brace on the field, so you might not see too many SB attempts for now.

Arthritis? Can't stop me!

Garret Anderson it hitting .414 since his return from the DL with early inflammatory undifferentiated arthritis. He's gone deep twice, with 6 runs scored and 4 RBI in 7 games. I'd say that's a pretty strong return. If you wanted to make a deal for GA, it's probably already too late. I'd just like to extend a very hearty welcome back to Anderson, who was certainly in a lot of pain for a while, but it's obvious that he's not feeling much now on the field with his performance. I guess doctors really can help--once they know what's wrong. Welcome back, GA. Keep tearin' it up. Of course, with him burnin' up at clean-up, that only makes Guerrero and Guillen more dangerous. Imagine if Glaus was healthy...okay, no, that's just torture.

Minor League Studs

The Angels future 3B prospect Dallas McPherson is currently hitting .329 with 20 HR, 67 RBI, and 6 SB in 66 games at AA Arkansas. Go on. Salivate. He's slugging .672 and the only thing Arkansas fans are wondering is, "How long until he gets the call?" The Angels want to bring him along slowly--and let's hope they do. He's yet to play in AAA, experience he really needs. His defense is somewhat atrocious, with 12 errors so far this season. Scioscy says he still has holes in his swing but seems to have figured out AA ball. I'd say. Here's to hoping they take it slow. He's only 23. Also, for those who had high hopes for the recently demoted Casey Kotchman, he may be done in the majors until at least September, but don't fear. He's a future .300 hitter. You'll see.

Odds and Ends

If you haven't checked out the ITH Fantasy All-Star teams at the column site (insidethehalo.blogspot.com), Fantasy Commish Eric Karabell was gracious enough to post them on the main fantasy games page as well as the front baseball page. Thanks, EK. Check them out, e-mail me at insidethehalo@insightbb.com, and tell me what you think or send me your own list to debate. . .The DaVanon/Salmon situation could come to a head soon. Keep an eye out to see how Scioscy plays it because it could have fantasy repercussions. I'll keep you posted. . .I went to see Griffey hit 500 at Cincinnati twice this week and was treated to two Reds wins but no Griff-bombs. History says Griffey should've hit 500 by now. More on that at ITH soon. Check it out. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

The 2004 ITH Fantasy All-Star Teams

2004-06-15T00:37:00.000-04:00

It's not quite that time of year yet for the actual boys of summer, but this Sunday will officially mark the halfway point of the "regular season" for those of us in 22-week (H2H) ESPN leagues. That being the case, ITH has taken it upon ourselves to name an AL and NL Fantasy All-Star Team as mid-season approaches. We've selected two 25-man teams specific to league with the exact roster format that ESPN players are familiar with (even the always-filled IR spot!) . We took advantage of multi-position eligibility, just as you would building your fantasy winner. Along with each choice, their 5x5 statistics have been listed (all stats listed are through the end of Week 10, June 13th). In some cases, the stats speak for themselves. However, along with the stats, ITH has listed notes to further exemplify just why we selected who we did for each position. If a player's name has an asterisk (*) next to it, that means he's been selected for the mixed-league All-Star Team. We welcome discussion (and your own lists as well) at insidethehalo@insightbb.com. These are, of course, subjective lists, and were chosen as such, selected by a mere mortal and no fantasy god (although we feel the stats would be hard to beat). Without further delay, here are the 2004 ITH Fantasy All-Star Teams.

AMERICAN LEAGUE:
Hitters:

Pitchers:

C: Ivan Rodriguez, DET: .358 AVG/8 HR/45 RBI/29 R/5 SB
.520 SLG, .514 AVG in June
1B: Frank Thomas, CHW: .299 AVG/16 HR/40 RBI/43 R/0 SB
OPS 1.094; 54 BB, 37 K
2B: Michael Young*, TEX: .332 AVG/9 HR/37 RBI/42 R/6 SB
.381 AVG at home, .281 on road; 1.016 OPS at home, .758 on road
SS: Carlos Guillen*, DET: .325 AVG/10 HR/40 RBI/47 R/3 SB
.783 OPS at home, 1.172 on road
3B: Alex Rodriguez*, NYY: .305 AVG/14 HR/36 RBI/43 R/11 SB
22 RBI, 22 R in May
OF: Melvin Mora*, BAL: .359 AVG/11 HR/41 RBI/57 R/7 SB
.449 OBP overall, .402 AVG in May
OF: Vladimir Guerrero*, ANA: .349 AVG/15 HR/56 RBI/52 R/5 SB
Lowest average month was April. Still hit .326; .403 vs. LHP
OF: Manny Ramirez*, BOS: .342 AVG/17 HR/46 RBI/39 R/1 SB
9 HR in May; OPS above 1.000 every month
OF: Matt Lawton*, CLE: .324 AVG/10 HR/33 RBI/50 R/12 SB
9 SB in May
OF: Carlos Beltran*, KC: .266 AVG/12 HR/43 RBI/42 R/12 SB
These numbers despite hitting .222 in May
1B/3B: David Ortiz, BOS: .286 AVG/13 HR/54 RBI/29 R/0 SB
24 2B overall; 27 RBI in May
2B/SS: Juan Uribe, CHW: .318 AVG/9 HR/25 RBI/37 R/7 SB
21 R in May
Util: Jose Guillen, ANA: .300 AVG/11 HR/46 RBI/40 R/3 SB
.351 AVG, 8 HR, 27 RBI, .517 SLG in May (which earned him ITH's Golden Fantasy Halo for May)
P: Curt Schilling*, BOS: 8 W/81 K/3.03 ERA/1.10 WHIP
Only 14 BB overall; 5-0, .215 OBA (opponent batting average) at home
P: Pedro Martinez*, BOS: 7 W/89 K/3.77 ERA/1.19 WHIP
Only 23 BB overall; 3-0, .213 OBA at home
P: Mark Mulder, OAK: 8 W/64 K/2.97 ERA/1.11 WHIP
.221 OBA overall; 5-0 at home
P: Tim Hudson, OAK: 7 W/45 K/2.80 ERA/1.18 WHIP
4-0, 1.34 ERA at home; 4.20 road ERA
P: Javier Vazquez, NYY: 7 W/66 K/3.43 ERA/0.99 WHIP
.210 OBA overall; only 18 BB; 2.63 ERA at home, 4.50 on road; 2.05 ERA in June
P: Mariano Rivera*, NYY: 26 SV/28 K/1.01 ERA/1.15 WHIP
Only 1 HR allowed in 2004
P: Francisco Cordero*, TEX: 19 SV/30 K/1.82 ERA/1.26 WHIP
1 R allowed since 5/12
P: Joe Nathan, MIN: 16 SV/35 K/1.55 ERA/1.17 WHIP
OBA .186 overall; allowed all 5 runs in only 2 games
P: Keith Foulke, BOS: 13 SV/25 K/1.08 ERA/0.84 WHIP
OBA .169 overall; only 8 BB
Bench: (P) Roy Halladay, TOR: 6 W/61 K/3.55 ERA/1.29 WHIP
4-1 in day games, 2.98 ERA
Bench: (2B, SS, 3B, OF) Chone Figgins, ANA: /312 AVG/2 HR/18 RBI/30 R/18 SB
7 SB in only 37 ABs in April; Call us homers, but we thought this team could use a little more speed on the bench. Plus, argue with that multi-position eligibility!
Bench: (P) Scot Shields, ANA: 4 W/3 SV/49 K/2.95 ERA/1.15 WHIP
Managers have been criticized in the past for adding their own players to fill out the bench and maybe we're guilty too, but he went over 20 innings without allowing a run. Plus, 49 K in 42 IP. Nice.
IR: Troy Glaus*, ANA: 11 HR, 28 RBI, 29 R in 98 AB

NATIONAL LEAGUE:
Hitters:

Pitchers:

C: Craig Wilson*, PIT: .330 AVG/14 HR/40 RBI/39 R/2 SB
23 R, 7 HR, 22 RBI in May
1B: Albert Pujols*, STL: .309 AVG/17 HR/41 RBI/55 R/ 2 SB
37 BB, 19 K; .400 AVG in June
2B: Jeff Kent, HOU: .309 AVG/10 HR/44 RBI/43 R/4 SB
.346, 22 R, 28 RBI in May
SS: Jack Wilson, PIT: .344 AVG/5 HR/25 RBI/33 R/5 SB
.369 AVG, .568 SLG in April
3B: Scott Rolen*, STL: .354 AVG/17 HR/67 RBI/42 R/1 SB
67 RBI (!), .795 SLG, 1.273 OPS in June
OF: Barry Bonds (San Francisco OF)*, SF: .376 AVG/18 HR/39 RBI/47 R/3 SB
88 BB, 12 K; .472 AVG, 1.132 SLG in April; .406 AVG in June; this list goes on and on...
OF: Lance Berkman*, HOU: .335 AVG/15 HR/49 RBI/39 R/1 SB
.387 AVG, 9 HR, 20 R, 24 RBI, .785 SLG in May
OF: Bobby Abreu*, PHI: .297 AVG/14 HR/43 RBI/48 R/12 SB
.313 AVG, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 26 R, 10 SB in May
OF: Steve Finley, ARI: .280 AVG/17 HR/35 RBI/42 R/7 SB
9 HR, 1.073 OPS in May
OF: Scott Podsednik, MIL: .261 AVG/8 HR/23 RBI/44 RBI/27 SB
CS only once (!), .290 AVG on road, .230 at home
1B/3B: Sean Casey*, CIN: .369 AVG/11 HR/46 RBI/49 R/1 SB
23 2B in April; .414 AVG in April
2B/SS: Rob Mackowiak, PIT: .269 AVG/11 HR/34 RBI/30 R/7 SB
20 R, 8 HR, 24 RBI in May
Util: Jim Thome, PHI: .318 AVG/18 HR/40 RBI/37 R/0 SB
6 HR already in June, .366 AVG
P: Randy Johnson*, ARI: 9 W/109 K/2.87 ERA/0.86 WHIP
10.4 K/9; only 23 BB; .172 OBA; 1.99 ERA in May
P: Roger Clemens*, HOU: 9 W/88 K/2.08 ERA/1.12 WHIP
.193 OBA; 18 R allowed all season
P: Carlos Zambrano*, CHI: 7 W/77 K/2.27 ERA/1.07 WHIP
4-0, 1.66 ERA at home; May and June ERA below 2.00
P: Matt Clement, CHI: 7 W/90 K/3.15 ERA/1.12 WHIP
6-2, 2.53 ERA at home; .189 OBA
P: Jason Schmidt*, SF: 7 W/82 K/2.49 ERA/0.97 WHIP
Only 25 BB; 1.24 road ERA; 5-0, 1.53 ERA, 54 K in May
P: Armando Benitez*, FLA: 24 SV/28 K/0.58 ERA/0.81 WHIP
2 ER, 27 baserunners all season
P: Jose Mesa, PIT: 14 SV/14 K/2.88 ERA/1.32 WHIP
Only 3 ER allowed until 6/12 (5 on 6/12)
P: Eric Gagne*, LA: 13 SV/39 K/1.78 ERA/0.83 WHIP
1.49 OBA; 0.79 ERA, 20 K in 11.1 IP in May; Then there's that little string of 76 consecutive saves...
P: Tom Glavine, NYM: 7 W/48 K/2.03 ERA/0.92 WHIP
.184 OBA; 6-1, 1.88 ERA on road
Bench: (P) Danny Kolb, MIL: 17 SV/7 K/1.14 ERA/0.85 ERA
3 R, 20 baserunners allowed all season
Bench: (P) Ben Sheets, MIL: 5 W/89 K/2.06 ERA/0.90 WHIP
79 baserunners allowed all year; only 3.4 RS/9 in 2004
Bench: (3B, OF) Miguel Cabrera, FLA: .293 AVG/16 HR/43 RBI/45 R/2 SB
9 HR, 22 RBI, 20 R in April
IR: Richie Sexson, ARI: 9 HR, 23 RBI, 20 R in 90 AB

Wrapup:
There you go. Who would've though there'd be 4 Pirates and 3 Brewers along with the expected 5 Red Sox and 3 Yankees? The Angels are the other big selection with 5 (4 active) and I can already hear the non-Angel fans yellin' "Homer!". The Phillies, Diamondbacks and Astros also posted 3 each (ARI only 2 active). We didn't bother to represent every team because you wouldn't bother to do that with your fantasy team. Besides, that's what those 7 extra spots are for on the actual All-Star team--getting someone from every team. We didn't have that luxury. Oh, and in case you didn't want to count, the mixed-league team came out 13 AL, 13 NL. And we didn't plan that either.

Obviously, there were some stellar performances left off the teams. In the AL, Gary Sheffield, Carl Crawford, Hank Blalock, Brian Roberts, Roy Halladay, and Kenny Rogers (the AL wins leader!) come to mind immediately. In the NL, Juan Pierre, Ken Griffey Jr., Luis Castillo, Mark Loretta, Aramis Ramirez, Jeremy Burnitz, Brad Penny, and Danny Graves (the NL saves leader!) would all deserve consideration to be included. Alas, as we pointed out, there are only 25 spots to be filled. Plus, it makes for great debate.

Again, let us know what you think of the 2004 ITH Fantasy All-Star Teams at insidethehalo@insightbb.com.

Halo Daily/Mondesi Math

2004-06-12T16:46:00.001-04:00

First thing I want to mention is a new website, administrated by yours truly, called Halo Daily (halodaily.blogspot.com). (There's also a link to the site just to the left of what you're reading now on the sidebar.) Sometimes, in the ever-moving machine that is Fantasy Baseball Information, my weekly (and often bi-weekly) columns don't get the word out to you, the readers, quickly enough. I recognize this and have started Halo Daily. It will give a brief game and fantasy report of each Halo game, posted either in the late evening or the early morning after each game. This will allow ITH readers to have an even more up-to-date feel. You can also leave me and other readers comments at the bottom of each game's report on anything (baseball related) in general. So bookmark it now and be kept in the loop. Of course, ITH (insidethehalo.blogspot.com) will continue to run as normal.

Turn of the Tide

After burning it up through most of May, the Halos have a hit a bit of skid since, going 6-9 in their last 15 games. Maybe not devastating, but when the Elephant Men have won 9 of their last 10, it can cut into a lead. Enough so that Anaheim now resides in second place, a half game behind Oakland, and only a game out of third, in front of the Chuck Norris' Texas Rangers. I've heard several people say that the injuries have finally caught up with this team. Maybe so, but I'd say it's the 4.87 ERA of the pitching staff in June, which is missing absolutely no one--except Donnelly, who's been gone all year and Percival, who with his poor performance, is better off taking a break until he heals anyway. Outside of Escobar, I'd sit Halos starters against bad matchups if you have the luxury.

Speaking of bad pitching...

The OC Register reported recently that Bartolo Colon's troubles in the last month or so could be linked to an old ankle injury that could be causing BC to alter his mechanics, therefore altering his delivery, therefore ruining your ERA and WHIP this fantasy season. Colon hasn't pitched since this big "revelation", so we'll see if anything's different next start (which is tonight). BC's ERA is 6.00, his WHIP is 1.57, and his BB rate is up a little, but in his case it was exceptional before, so now it's just average. His K rate is up, and his K/BB ratio is still in line with career totals, so he's not far off. The problem is his velocity really. It's down just enough for batters to tee off. WATCH this situation; the numbers show he could miss time soon with injury.

Mending Wings: Revolving Door

The new episode finds both Salmon and Anderson back in the lineup, although with Salmon only being able to DH, he's gonna find it hard to get everyday ABs while DaVanon is tearing it up as he is. Eck's hamstring is still not 100%, it looks like he'll only start maybe 4 or 5 times a week for a just a little bit. Scioscy keeps saying Molina will play soon, but then doesn't play him. It really should be soon, though. Trading Jose for offensive help probably won't happen now because that could leave Josh Paul as the regular catcher if Jose were to run out in front of a bus or something. Darin Erstad is back in minor league rehab, meaning Kotchman's everyday ABs are numbered. Percy's out for at least a month. The "Likely Out for the Season" tally is now at 2: Glaus and Mondesi.

Mondesi Math

Let's talk about this signing of Raul Mondesi. Some would say, "Ha! Karma! That's he gets for doing Pittsburgh the way he did!" (I wouldn't be among those. Karma's overrated.) However, it is interesting to note the financial "investment" in Mondesi, as Arte Moreno might put it. Mondesi signed for the remainder of the season for 1.75 mil. His line with the Halos: 4-34 (.118), 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R. That's 1.75 mil per HR, per RBI, a half-off deal on runs at $875,000 per run and a steal at $437,500 per base hit. I'm not really a money mind, but that's not that good of a purchase. I mean even when you figure in the 1 outfield assist, that's doesn't really sweeten the deal for me. Not the most fiscally responsible move, you might say. Or--you might just say bad karma.

Is It Time to Get on DaVanWagon?

In 47 games, Jeff DaVanon is hitting .341/3/17 with 17 runs and 8 swipes. That's pretty impressive. I said at the beginning of the year that he wasn't a sleeper, partly because of the lack of PT he would receive. I'm could be wrong for two reasons. One: I just didn't give this 30-year-old with most of his career in the minors enough credit. Two: We all know the Angels' injury situation has provided him with PT aplenty. Is he for real? Well, his hit rate thus far in '04 is 39%, which is way above his mean of 29%. If he were getting hits on 10% less of his batted balls like usual, he'd be batting .261 instead of .341. So yeah, the AVG is quite a bit over his head. The dash of power and SB aren't, though. Now his only problem--again--is PT with Anderson and Salmon back.

Odds and Ends

Vlad won the Silver Fantasy Halo in week 9 with this line: 8-25 (.320), 2HR, 12RBI, 2R, 3SB. The man's just great. He stole another base last night. Vlad owners like that (me too). . .I'm gonna have to start calling John Lackey "The Riddler", 'cause he's just an enigma. 3-7 record with a terrible ERA, making me look foolish for praising him, then he goes 7IP, 7H, 2ER, 6K, and only 1BB last night against the Cubs, who've been hitting well. Go figure. . .Don't forget to check Halo Daily. Also the e-mail is insidethehalo@insightbb.com. Enjoy interleague play this week as we get to see all those AL pitchers looking really silly swingin' a bat. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

May Golden Fantasy Halo

2004-06-08T12:30:00.000-04:00

There were three very strong candidates this month and all of them were very deserving of being named the MVP of Angels fantasy baseball this month (Wow, that really sounds like some Oscar presenter...except for the Angels part). However, ITH has decided to award this line:

.351, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 23 runs, 1 SB.

That belonged to Jose Guillen for the month of May. Congrats Jose. And thank you, ITH readers, for all your votes.

Scalped!

2004-06-08T12:12:00.000-04:00

The Angels had their hat handed to them over the weekend by the rebuilding Tribe. The only game they won in the four game set was the only one that didn’t sell out. Not a good showing for the home fans. It wasn’t pretty under any circumstances--so bad, in fact, that the Angels have decided to just play National League teams for a week or so, see how that works out. It the former AL Brewers in town to take on the Halos, so get your Angels fantasy players ready, even with the Crew’s improvement in the offseason. The opener is against Sheets, which could give the Halos trouble, but beyond that, the matchups are favorable at worst. With the outage of wins over the weekend, the first place over the Elephant Men is down to 1 game, 1.5 over the Rangers.

Readers Are Freaking Out in My Inbox!

It’s leaving quite a mess. I’ve got Lysol, Pledge, 409, and other assorted cleaners, but it’s still bad. The subject? Something to the tune of “What the crappin’ freak is wrong with stinky Bartolo Colon?!”. This is an approximate paraphrase, mind you. I’ll admit, his performance smells a lot worse than his name implies right now, but I would caution frustrated owners who want to start taking him out with the trash. Take for instance a stat called hit rate. This is something the folks over at Baseball HQ are schooled in and they schooled me. Hit rate is the percentage of balled bats in play that go for hits. The mean is around 30%. Last year, Bartolo Colon enjoyed a 27% rate. This year? 36%. Doesn’t sound like much, but it’s huge. So to expect a huge increase in ERA is reasonable.

And that’s exactly what’s happening. Right now it’s 6.00. Yeesh. Something else that Colon’s been doin’ is throwin’ a lot more flyballs. It started last year and has continued this year. So far in ’04, a lot more of those flies are leaving the park (1.9 HR/9 for BC). That’s outrageously high. He’s always been a marginal pitcher at giving the long ball, but the rate thus far this season is ridiculous and history says that it won’t continue this way. When all the luck quits working against BC, then he will start to post better numbers. Is there still a problem? Yeah, he needs to get the ball down in the zone. If you wanna watch for one thing during his starts, watch for that. The Ks are there, the control is good, the velocity is down a little (even Omar Vizquel commented about that this weekend. . .ouch), but the talent is obviously still there. I’d hold on Colon.

The DL Path: From Inflammation to MRI to Bench

Troy Percival is on the DL officially. Big surprise. K-Rod will be the replacement while he’s out. Again, big surprise. What will be interesting to see is if K-Rod continues to dominate (he did give up his first dinger of the year the other day), is there any chance he’ll remain the closer when Percival heals? That answer would be “very, very doubtful.” He’d probably have to fan everyone between now and then and Percival’s vet status and hefty salary still pretty much insure that barring some serious performance issues (which, it could be said, have already occurred), he’s the man. Move Shields and Gregg to set up roles because Weber was demoted to AAA Salt Lake to get his act together. Keep an eye on Percy’s status though. He’s concerned, so as his owner, you should be too.

This Week on a Very Special “Mending Wings”

Garret Anderson declares that his miraculous arthritis medicine has allowed to be ready for a minor league rehab stint! He started at Rancho Cucamonga yesterday and could play next Monday. Outstanding news! Don’t give ESPN your T-shirt size just yet, but smile real big if he looks good at single-A. Salmon could be back as early as tonight. Eckstein and Molina continue to be day-to-day, but I’d expect both back this week. Erstad continues to take it easy, but wants to come back before the late June date that was speculated in the local media recently. Donnelly continues to make small steps as well. For all except Glaus, the clouds are at least parting if not already revealing the sunshine. Here’s to hoping we can cancel this medical drama in this column very soon.

You Like Me! You Really Like Me!

I was shocked and amazed this weekend when I looked in my inbox. Underneath all those screaming Bartolo Colon owners was one little harmless e-mail stating seven words that didn’t seem to belong with all the rest. It was an e-mail saying, “I like your work as the correspondent.” Nothing else. No question. No complaints. Just a little note to tell me nice job. It was the first (and maybe the last), it wasn’t signed (who’d admit to telling me that?), and I also had one in there telling me I didn’t know anything about baseball at all (for balance against my swelling head, I suppose). Either way, it was nice and I appreciate it, whoever you are. I’m sure it’s possible that the person clicked the wrong address, of course, but let me have my one moment.

Odds and Ends

Lineup changes looming. When GA’s full strength, Mondesi will probably DH. Where does that leave Salmon? Not playing every day, that’s for sure. It’s possible Mondesi won’t be worth owning if he’s splitting time with Timmy, which 68% of you may just have to drop him again. . .Figgins should remain the man at 3rd for now. Boone could seriously be in the near future for the Angels though. . .World Series preview between the Halos and Cubs? Way too early to say, but great series nonetheless. Bats better be warm, ‘cause Cubs staff could shut everyone but maybe Vladdy down. Enjoy Interleague play and vote at ITH (insidethehalo.blogspot.com) on whether it’s a good thing or not. Also, May’s Halo is up at ITH. Go see who got it. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

A, E, I, O, U, and ALWAYS Y

2004-06-04T13:34:00.000-04:00

I don’t know how many of you closely follow the Angels media, but if you do, you may have noticed that the Halos’ skipper, Mike Scioscia, has contracted what in my estimation is a very annoying--and apparently very widespread--habit in baseball. When referring to any of his players, he picks one of their names, shortens it, and adds a ‘y’ (or ‘-ey’ as needed). I’ve heard him refer to Percy, Figgy, and “Ersty” (that one really grates my ears) so much that I want to headbutt my computer screen. So in my only way of fighting back, I have decided to refer to the Scioscia the rest of this season as. . .Scioscy (pronounced SO-shee). If he can do it, so can I. I know he’s not the only one who does it, but he’s the one that I’m reading daily, so I’m doing my part to mock all this baby talk.

I am holding you responsible for making me stick to this. If I refer to Scioscy as Mike or Mr. Scioscia or Smiley or, heck, Banana Man (whatever), I want you to e-mail me (insidethehalo@insightbb.com) and correct me. It’s for my own good. And his too. To introduce the new feature, let’s practice on our Scioscese. Take for example, Tim Salmon: Timmy. That one’s easy. How about Eckstein? Ecky.
Guerrero? Vlady, but that’s been done before. Here are a few you might see in the near future, with all the injuries: Mondy (I’ve already seen that one). Jeff DaVanon: That one a little tougher. Jeffy? DaVanny? I don’t know. Casey Kotchman: Kotchy? Ouch. That just sounds like some mutated venereal disease. And with that, I digress. . .

Let’s All Just Gripe

Not me this time. Ramon Ortiz has demanded a trade from the Angels front office should he not be returned to the rotation “in the very near future.” Can I get a show of hands on who that worries? Yeah, my hand’s not up either and it’s not because I forgot my deodorant. It’s amazing how a player’s agent can get in and muck up a team’s morale. I know it’s the agent’s job to take care of the player’s livelihood, but “Rammy” was much more team-oriented in his comments when the initial move was made. His agent claims a “44-game winner in the last 3 years” shouldn’t be in the pen. Funny he picked wins to mention. How about that 4.40 ERA in the same time? 1.36 WHIP? Or the 93 dingers (1.4 per 9IP) he allowed? Only 7 CG? Looks like they ought to give the pen a raise.

Jose: Can You Hear Me Now?

As we continue with this all-gripe, all-the-time theme, John Lackey was suspended 5 games for “hitting” Simon Pond on May 24th. If you remember that, the ball didn’t actually hit Pond and postgame Jose Guillen complained that he wasn’t “getting any help from anybody” as far as retaliation was concerned. As I said before, he must’ve missed Lackey fire at Pond’s upper torso--twice. Scioscy’s gone too for 1 game, which is what Lackey’s suspension really amounts to. Lackey will appeal, which means he could serve his time in concurrence with his appearance at a local electronics store where he’ll shave his beard to promote an electric shaver--and receive a 52-inch plasma TV and DVD player for doing what you and I do several times a week. This is what starters do with their days off, folks.

Those Three Little Words That Are So Hard To Say

“Coach, I’m hurtin’.” This is another peeve, while we’re gettin’ all the gripes out at once. Just this Tuesday I wondered whether Troy Percival was indeed hurt this season because so far he’s pretty much pitched like Troy Glaus. Yeah, he’s managed 12 saves but anyone who does more than look at the save totals knows they’ve been ugly. Well, low and behold, Wednesday he gets an MRI. He also took the opportunity to reveal that, by the way, his elbow’s been “inflamed” for the last month. Well, thanks for being so forthright, TP. Look, I know a guy’s got to make a living and no one’s ever really 100% all the time, but he’s a vet with a long leash and if your performance is hurting the team (i.e. 4 blown saves), then it’s time to open your mouth and say those three little words. Please.

On an All-New “Mending Wings”

In this episode, Percy reveals his flaming elbow is causing him problems. Garry works out and says his new arthritis medicine has done wonders. Ecky strains his hammy in a Thursday game and is given day-to-day status. Timmy and Ersty are looking to start minor league rehabs in around a week and suddenly realize that no one in mixed leagues cares. “Brendy” Donnelly throws from a mound and feels good about it. The future looks brighter his way. Glausy looks at his shoulder and screams, “WHY?!” as he is simultaneously waived in 76% of ESPN mixed leagues. Don’t miss this riveting new episode of “Mending Wings”, only being shown in ER waiting rooms of Anaheim area hospitals. Check your local listings.

Odds and Ends

From the “Hey! There IS Good News” Department, the Halos dispatched the BoSox in 2 straight this week as well as Cleveland last night. They trail only the Yankees for the baseball’s best record. After the Tribe, Interleague with the Crew and Cubs. Those’ll be fun. New instant polls and trivia are up at ITH (insidethehalo.blogspot.com) as well as all the archived columns. Go vote and help me figure out who deserves May’s Golden Fantasy Halo. June is going to be an outstanding month of ball to watch with all Interleague and Elephant Men after this weekend. Have a great weekend and please be careful out there--I wouldn’t want any of you to catch a bad case of “Kotchy.” For the Angels, Matt Allen, ESPN.

The Long Weekend/#43 on Your Scorecard

2004-06-01T13:31:00.000-04:00

This is what happens when you duck out early on Memorial Day weekend. I almost posted an update Friday saying, “Watch out! It looks like Mondesi is on the way!”, but decided I would cash in early on Friday afternoon of a holiday weekend, and look what happened. I missed the deal. One thing I am glad I did miss was the watching the Halos stink it up this weekend. 1-5 on the road trip. It seems the Angels spent Memorial Day weekend remembering that, yeah, they’ve got about 47 guys on the DL and they aren’t supposed to be playing this good. As for Mondesi, other than givin’ you the scoop, I wouldn’t have been excited about anything else in the #43 situation. He’s aging, he whiffing a lot, and he just did the Pirates flat wrong. But hey, welcome, Raul. Let’s break this deal down.

Raul will play CF primarily until GA gets back, although he’s played there a grand total of 108 games in his career and 94 of those were 7 years ago, so let’s not jump for joy about the Halos finding their new CF. He hit 6th in the lineup on Sunday and I would expect him to stay there. Should you pick him up? AL only, sure. It’s new blood. Mixed? If you’re okay with the .283 takin’ a dip (and it will with Mondesi currently fanning 27% of the time) and need some RBIs, then do it. Mondesi looked rough over in PIT, and I wouldn’t expect a full turnaround now. He’s a career .246 AL hitter while hitting .289 in the NL. That’s with a pitcher’s NL park primarily (LA) and a hitter’s AL park (TOR/some NYY). He may run a little more (a grand total of zero SB at PIT), but that’s all I’d expect.

Figgins will move to 3B primarily and DaVanon could still see a lot of CF when Mondesi DHs, like he did Sunday. That wouldn’t surprise anyone. However, when Salmon comes back and GA gets healthy, Mondesi’s PT situation will be interesting. Even with just Salmon back, Mondesi will have to deal with playing CF every day because Salmon has been pretty much relegated to Edgar Martinez status and will be hitting only from now on. If you’ve got DaVanon, I’d be ready to drop him. Figgins’s situation pretty much stays the same, while the 0.1% of you who picked up Adam Riggs for some strange reason have since dropped him. He’s gone to clear room for Mondesi. This improves the Angels no doubt, but dramatically? Count me as skeptical.

Percy, Percy, Percy
What in the world is wrong with Percy? His ERA is above 4.32 (only worse in 2000), the WHIP is a shining 1.86, it’s June and he’s still got more BBs than Ks. I think it’s certainly time to ask if Troy is hurt. If he wasn’t making almost 8 mil this year and hadn’t been the closer for 8+ years, he would be in danger of losing his post. I’m surprised I haven’t got a lot of Marathon Man e-mails (“Is it safe?”) in regards to TP keeping his job as the closer. Maybe it’s because most of you know that Scioscia has confidence in #40 and thinks he’ll get it back on track. Will he? If he’s not hurt, yeah. If he is? Well, then he’s managed to pull out 12 saves, which is 4th in the AL. But be careful, Percy owners. You know and I know the numbers don’t look good.

Mending Wings: A New Summer Drama
The sheer number of injuries on the team means that I have to use at least a little space every time updating you on all the injury progress and analysis. GA has been doing workouts and is getting better. The timetable we’re all waiting for could come soon. Scioscia says Salmon and Erstand could both begin minor league rehab stints in a week to ten days, according the team website. Despite all wishes otherwise, Glaus is still gone until September (really the season), although 25% of you are still holding out hope. Don’t. He’s gone and maybe for good as far as the Halos are concerned. Brendan Donnelly is having complications with his elbow. Last word was that if it doesn’t get better soon, he’ll shut it down for the year.

Speaking of injuries, 75% of you thought that Glaus’s injury hurts the Halos the most and I tend to agree. Nothing the Angels have (including new #43) can come close to replacing what he can produce. Be sure to check out ITH (insidethehalo.blogspot.com) for more instant polls, trivia, and other important baseball links. Also, we’ve got a running tabulation on the Silver Halos for the weekly fantasy MVPs. This week’s honor goes to Vlad, who finally gets number 1. The stats? 7-19 (.368), 4 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI. Not earth-shattering, but then neither was this week for the Angels. He was overdue anyway, finishing 2nd just about every week up until now.

Odds and Ends
Big homestand comin’ up. BOS, CLE, then interleague with MIL and CHI. That’s right, interleague’s already here. . .Those crazy screwups at home plate against TOR were all about communication. It’s not like you couldn’t hear at SkyDome. The two attendance figures were 15,301 and 14,515. Bengie’s meeting with Scioscia should’ve cleared all that up. . .Sele continues to be the best Angel starter and is owned in only 6% of mixed leagues. Now would be a good time to pick him up. I won’t be though. I’m a tough sell, I guess. . .I wouldn’t want to let Memorial Day go by without acknowledging our troops who have sacrificed (and continue to) so much for us here at home. No matter how we feel about Iraq, they deserve our utmost gratitude. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Timetable: A Bad Word/Meet the New Guys

2004-05-26T15:36:00.000-04:00

“The timetable word is a bad word for me right now.” That was Brendan Donnelly speaking to the media postgame over the weekend, according to the team’s website. Indeed, it seems that the timetable word is a bad word all around the Halos’ locker room, not just with Donnelly, who’s still having trouble coming back with his rehab. And let’s face it, if you had your nose broken in 20 spots, would you feel chipper and bright? As far as--and excuse my French here--timetables go, Garret Anderson: none. He’ll be in the pool and on the bike soon, but post All-Star break is the best guess on his return. Erstad: late June. . .maybe. Donnelly: ditto. Glaus: September is the official line, 2005 is the unofficial (and most probable) one. Salmon: maybe next week. Anyone know the number for 911?

Meet the New Guys: Chone Figgins

Let’s take a look at some players who may not be new to the Angels roster but who are knew on the horizon of fantasy players. Figgy is possibly a candidate for a “breakout” player in AL fantasy this year. He’d only played in 86 games heading into this season, but he’s already logged 35 in ’04. A .310 AVG, 22 R, and 10 SB later, everybody wants a piece of CF. Should you? Well, Figgins stands to get everyday PT until at least the All-Star break and possibly the rest of the season if the Halos don’t deal for a 3B. Multi-position eligibility and the likelihood of 30 SB make him very attractive. I would expect the AVG to come down to maybe the .280 range, and his BB total leaves a lot to be desired for his type of play, but if you need everyday speed and help in runs, Chone can help.

Jeff DaVanon

Jeff DaVanon must have familial ties to Houdini or maybe David Copperfield is a distant cousin. For 2 consecutive years, he’s made us think he can hit .300 or better. He’s also got legit pop and some speed as well, so owners start repeating the words “diamond in the rough” over and over in their mind. Let me tell ya a little something about a stat called hit rate. The good folks over at Baseball HQ taught me about this and DaVanon could be its new poster boy. Right now, JD is getting hits on 38% of his batted balls. That is way above the mean, usually around 30%. Now, hit rate is specific to each batter, and DaVanon is normally right around 28%. Last year’s first half? 41 H%. AVG: .344. 2nd half: 28 H%. AVG: .233. Expect a dip soon. He could go 10/15 though with significant PT.

Casey Kotchman

Kotch already holds the record for the most ABs to begin a career without a whiff (48). He finally fanned last Wednesday and may never stike out again. Okay, that’s a little ridiculous, but this is a future fantasy-viable option. The key word here most likely is future though. While he could develop a great AVG pretty fairly quickly, he is still young and hasn’t had much time in the minors. Also, his strict 1B eligibility doesn’t make him very amenable to fantasy teams, considering his current makeup, unless said team is completely strapped for AVG. Even that will need time to grow because he’s only hitting .277 after starting off hot. Further, hitting in the latter part of the lineup won’t provide as many R and RBI opportunities. If you’re in a keeper, keep an eye on Kotch.

Kevin Gregg

Here’s a guy who can wheel. He can deal. And he’s basically getting no love for it with the likes of K-Rod taking the credit and the statement that he’s just another good arm in an already good bullpen. That’s true, but he’s been great this year. Here’s a guy who could certainly step into the rotation if Sele or Lackey were to falter. He’s got almost a K an inning, and looking good doing it. He’s throwing a lot more groundballs than he has in the past and he’ll help you out in every category except saves. Don’t expect big Ws, but he’ll definitely get some late ones. He’s already thrown 31 innings, so his inning total will be enough to affect your ERA and WHIP totals for the year, and that effect will be nice. Definitely worth a look. Easy to acquire too at 33% in mixed leagues.

Wings to Halos

Each week, I award a pair of wings to the most valuable Halo fantasy player of the week and I’ll do it again this week, but from now on we’re changin’ the prize to silver halos. It’s a switch I can make because it’s my column and they’re nonexistent anyway. So--this week’s halo marks the second time a hurler will pick one up. He threw 11 IP, allowed only 8 H, 2 ER, resulting in a W and a ERA of 2.45 and a WHIP of 1.18. Okay, I’ll say it. I guess I can’t put it off any longer. Aaron Sele gets the nod for the Week 7 Fantasy Silver Halo. I’m still not endorsing him--even this week he only had 5 K along with 5 BB--but he deserves the halo. Totals for the year? Figgins 2; Colon, Anderson, Erstad, Guillen, and Sele all with 1.

Odds and Ends

What a wild finish in Toronto on Monday night. Weird way to lose one and not really troublesome. I think the Halos could still win the series with two straight. Then it’s on to Chicago and back for a long homestand. Nice. . .Guillen called the pitchers out after not “protecting” him when he was hit by a Justin Miller pitch Monday. He must’ve not seen Lackey almost take Simon Ponds’ head off--twice. Maybe he’s expecting the pitcher to come out with a trench coat and a Uzi. Nice show of team unity, JG. . .Jose Molina could be on the block for a 3B. Names named are Randa, Hillenbrand, Spiezio, and Aaron Boone. Wait and see. That means keeping the more talented, more fragile Bengie, but a move that could help defensively at least. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Here's Your. . .McMuffin, Sir

2004-05-21T14:12:00.000-04:00

I ordered an Egg McMuffin on the way to work this week as I have been in the habit of doing lately. I paid, I grabbed my grub, and I headed to the car (the drive-thru is ridiculously long . . . zero wait inside. Man, we sure are lazy, aren't we?) I pulled out, turned on talk sports radio, and opened my breakfast. No egg. Just . . . McMuffin. Now, sure I had the ham and cheese that come with it, but I ordered an EGG McMuffin. Did they think I wouldn't notice there wasn't any egg? The name of the sandwich is the EGG McMuffin. Egg. The Yankees must've noticed something missing from the Angels' offensive sandwich, having little trouble holding the Halos to 5 runs in the last 3 games, taking 2 and the series.

I think we all knew that eventually the loss of a World Series MVP, a former Rookie of the Year, 2 Gold Gloves, and 8 All-Star appearances would hurt the roster. Through May 20, the Angels still have the best record in baseball, 1.5 games ahead of NYY, MIN, and HOU. The Halos have lost 15 times and 9 of those 15 are against only two teams--NYY and TEX. As good as the past two series have been, it might behoove the Angels to not have to face the Yankees again until one more three-game set in mid-August. They won't see Texas again until late-July. By then, the team could look a little healthier. Although they haven't played BOS, CHW, CLE, TOR, or KC yet, their only losing records thus far are against NYY (2-4) and TEX (2-5).

GA Finally Diagnosed

In case you hadn't heard (and if you hadn't, you might wanna reach for the cotton lodged in your ears), Garret Anderson has finally been told what's been ailing him. It's called "early undifferentiated inflammatory arthritis." So there you go. We've waited almost a month to hear four words--whatever they mean. According to the team's website, the plan is to get him in the pool and on the exercise bike this week and ultimately construct a timetable for his return based on the results of those workouts. Here's my take: if Garret had been healthy enough, he wouldn't have waited for a diagnosis to work out. He's in pain and I'd be very surprised to see him back before the Break. Scioscia described GA's road back to the field as "long". Hope your IR spot's empty.

The Cold Shoulder

So much for ground balls at first base. Glaus in gone. Gone for surgery. Gone until September--at least. Gone for the year, I'd say. Gone forever, maybe (FA after '04). Looks like the rehab route over the offseason wasn't such a good idea after all, huh? I'm really not bitter as a fantasy owner--I don't own him on any team--I'm bitter as a fan. Look, I know Troy wants to play as much as the next guy, but when you're shoulder is messed up that bad, you probably need surgery. If you're an MD and you see that someone's shoulder is messed up that bad, tell them to get surgery. Now he's blown 2 of his peak years. It's a shame, really. He's a wonderful player. But will he put his halo back on in '05? Time (and his shoulder) will tell. What do you do with Troy? It's called waivers.

Now what?

Are the Angels content to just keep running up guys from Salt Lake and Arkansas until no one's left? Maybe not, with this latest injury. Local media is reporting that the Halos may look for a full-time 3B for Glaus to bridge the gap until next year or maybe until '06, when Dallas McPherson should be completely ready. Names like Joe Randa, Scott Spiezio, Shea Hillenbrand, and Aaron Boone are being thrown around. Any chance of these guys coming to Anaheim? Both SEA & KC have old catchers, meaning they might be interested in Jose Molina, who is apparently now on the block. Arizona is dying to get rid of Hillenbrand, so that could be a possibility. Boone wants to play in ARI, but Chad Tracy is emerging there. He grew up in the OC though. Also, Daddy Boone played in ANA. Stay tuned.

The Fantasy Baseball Show

If you're in the Phoenix area and can operate a radio, I'll be a guest on ESPN Radio 860 KMVP tonight on The Fantasy Baseball Show. I'll be talkin' Halos and answering any other fantasy questions you might have. The show airs at 6:00 tonight Pacific Time. The call-in number is 602-277-KMVP (5687). If you don't live in Arizona, you're still in luck if you want to hear the segment live because it simulcasts on the web at http://www.fantasybaseballshow.com. Tune in and then you can e-mail and tell me how silly I sounded. For extra info, Inside the Halo is always available (http://insidethehalo.blogspot.com). Instant polls, trivia, important baseball links and all my columns.

Odds and Ends

The Orange Birds are next. Another good series. Start your Halo pitchers though. . .Other injuries I didn't cover--Erstad back late June--we'll see. Salmon back soon. Maybe two weeks at most. . .Next time we'll look at these guys who are gettin' all the PT now in detail. Figgins, DaVanon, Kotchman, Gregg--what you can expect specifically. . .Why won't the rotation throw groundballs? Are they afraid if the infielders bend over the DL list will keep growing? Only TB and SEA have a worse G/F ratio. . .You picked it. 57% percent of you said Sele should stay the Angels' 5th starter at ITH's instant poll. I still say Scot Shields, but I might come around with a couple good starts. I'm not nearly convinced yet. Well, I’m off to find my EGG. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Do You Have to Let It Linger?

2004-05-17T15:14:00.000-04:00

Do you have to? Do you have to? I’m dedicating this column to the 1993 Cranberries hit that my middle school friends and I would always sing when someone cut the proverbial cheese in our vicinity. I’m not condoning our stupidity, I’m just being nostalgic, I suppose. The Angels haven’t really had a gas problem to speak of, but they sure are finding ways to let their mounting injuries linger. Sure, they are 12-3 in May, so it hasn’t hurt the bottom line yet, but I and a lot of other Angels fans would feel much better to see more than half the Opening Day lineup on the field. In specific injury news, Garret Anderson is waiting for a doctor who knows how to use his stethoscope and that the Hippocratic oath has nothing to do with that fat animal with the buckteeth.

His back is still tight and no one knows why. The dreaded words “no timetable” still apply. Erstad looks to be out also for quite some time as well with a Double Hammy Strain with Cheese. The positive point there is that this isn’t a reaggravation; they’re in different spots from last year’s. The negative outlook? That’s just two more weak spots in an already torn up hamstring. Tim Salmon suffered a setback with his knee during his minor league rehab stint. He might be back this week, or the Angels may also decide to wait. It’s not like the lineup is starving for runs right now. Bengie Molina left yesterday’s with groin discomfort. Expect word today or early tomorrow on whether he will join the Cranberries Crew.

Perhaps the most interesting (and also the most ominous) lingering injury is that of Troy Glaus. It’s old news that he left the roadie to return to Anaheim for tests. Those tests showed that, “Yeah, you’re knee’s okay, but you know that whole shoulder deal that completely ruined your season a year ago? Well, guess what, your shoulder looks oddly like that again.” Dandy. Most have heard this by now, so you, Fantasy Owner, won’t get full value if you decide to deal. Scioscia has said don’t expect Glaus at 3B anytime remotely soon. He’ll either DH, or here’s something--he took ground balls at 1B over the weekend. He’s only seen action at SS and 3B, so this will be other interesting Scioscia Study. His hitting should remain okay (4 HR since the “re-tweak” in MIN). Stay tuned.

Is That the Way We Stand?

Where does all this leave us for PT? Well, Figgy’s gonna be seeing a whole lot of 3B, so high-five something if you picked him up. DaVanon now becomes the 3rd OF, so get him in AL-leagues. Depending on whether Glaus DHs, Salmon may have to sit. He’s not gonna be able to play OF on a regular basis with that knee. Kotchman? Yeah, he’s looked wonderful so far, but if Glaus can play 1B, who do you think is gonna be sitting the bench? It didn’t bode that well for Kotch anyway when Robb Quinlan came up last week to help out. However, with KC’s start, you figure he’ll get some periodic chances, more than anyone until Glaus can take over at 1B. What about Erstad? I don’t know--1B. . .Coach? Don’t look for him to go anywhere though. He’s signed to an overpriced contract through 2006.

Is It All a Game to You?

If Jarrod Washburn were a catcher, he’d be givin’ the fantasy player some pretty complicated signals out there on the mound right now. Numbers?

ERA: 4.68.
WHIP: 1.36.
HR/9: 1.26.

All bad (HR/9=ugly).

Wins: 7.
K/9: 6.5 (up from 5.1 in ‘03).
K/BB ratio: 3.0.

All very good.

The K/9, K/BB ratio, and JW’s excellent control give his owners hope that if the bats do cool off, he can still be a solid fantasy option. Don’t expect the HRs to cool off though. He’s thrown 5 gopherballs in 3 starts in May. So far, his G/F ratio is a very low 0.77. That’s somewhat disguised at ANA but not on the road. Nonetheless, he’s worth trading a mid-level player for. Recently he’s been traded for MacDougal, Mesa, and Rincon. All good deals. He’s also been traded for Freddy Garcia. Very bad deal.

Oh, I Thought the World of You

Chone Figgins certainly has the fantasy world’s attention this week. Who would’ve thought that six weeks into the regular season that Figgins would have 2 of the 4 pairs of wings awarded here? Not me. Vlad’s gonna get mad at me (not really) for skipping over him on two good weeks, but Figgins’ numbers are just too good to ignore again: 12-29 (.414), 1 HR, 8 RBI, 4 R. He’s got six 3B, on pace to become only the third hitter since 1950 to finish the season with more than 20. For the answer to who were the other two, you can check out the trivia section at Inside the Halo (http://insidethehalo.blogspot.com). So, scoring along at home with our silver pairs of wings? Figgins 2, Guillen 1, Erstad 1.

Inside the Halo
In case you haven’t noticed, I’ve changed the e-mail and web address. The e-mail is now insidethehalo@insightbb.com. Use it. ITH’s address is listed just above. There are instant polls, trivia, important fantasy links, as well as all the drivel that I’ve shoveled out this young baseball season. Head over and check it out. Also, if you want to be notified when I’ve updated here at ESPN , click the e-mail notification link toward the top-right corner of the page. Three big ones against the Bronx Bombers comin’ up. Fun series. Then 3 more versus the Orange Birds. Then it’s North of the Border for the end of the AL East run against the Jays. So far 7-3 against what was hyped to be the best division in baseball. Gotta like that. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Clipped Wings/An Angel of My Very Own

2004-05-11T03:24:00.000-04:00

[Programming note: From here on, I will simultaneously post my current article at ESPN here as well. This makes it easier to just come directly here for the update if you like. So, for the lucky few of you who have this site bookmarked, now you can get all the articles here the minute they're published. Enjoy. Have a wonderful day. Happy baseball.]

Clipped Wings

Sadly, possibly the biggest story around the Halo is not that the good guys had their 9-game winning streak snapped last night in a thriller at the Stadium, but that with all the injuries, Angel fans might think that the lineup featured names like J.D. Drew, Ken Griffey Jr., and Darin Erstad. Oh, wait we do have Erstad--and word is that there is "no timetable" for his return. Two bad words. Of course, if you read my piece on DE at ITH (http://insidethehalo.blogspot.com), then you knew he wasn't likely to continue performing anyway--bad hammy or no. Garret Anderson still doesn't know when he'll return, although his prognosis (what little there is) is more positive for the time being than Erstad's. Angel doctors did rule out rheumatoid arthritis, which I mentioned last time.

So what's wrong with his back? Who knows? But until they have a clue, you mark GA down under "no timetable" also. On the positive side, Tim Salmon will do the minor league rehab thing this weekend and be back Tuesday. Jose Guillen may not see the DL at all after being carted off the field after what appeared to be a very severe right knee sprain on Sunday. Great news, if it pans out. He's what they call "sizzling" right now. Troy Glaus can expect to DH a few more days to further mend his ailing shoulder. He's playing, though (and drillin' the ball), so keep him under a yellow flag and you'll be fine.

Super-Subs

I don't know if they're with the Justice League of America, but the Angels are 15-3 without GA and 7-1 without Salmon, so the subs are doing somethin' right. We've talked Figgy and he'll continue to play. I've gotten plenty of mail on him and if you need speed, he's your guy. Only problem? Five triples! That leads the majors, and not that we don't like that, but he can't steal second and third when he gets there immediately. Expect .280 or so from his AVG and good helpin' of Rs and you won't be disappointed. He'll hit 2nd now that Erstad's out. DaVanon is getting some PT too now. Acquire? AL-only, sure (he is hitting 5th). He's not going to jettison you to the top, but he'll help like marginal players do. ML league? Unless it's 12 teams or more, you can do better, I'm sure.

Plus, remember as soon as Guillen's back (which could be this series--he took BP yesterday), DaVanon will be back to his role of knitting more Rally Monkeys on the bench. Hey, what about Casey Kotchman? The buzz is he's good, right? Well, yeah, but there's no way I'd take him on 7 MLB ABs. He hit .179 in 28 AA ABs this year, so this was an interesting call up to be sure. He's only 21 (read: plenty of maturing to do), so I'd wait until he proves himself against MLB pitching before I jumped on this rookie bandwagon. Anyway, if you're in that bad of shape at 1B, your most serious problem may not be fantasy baseball.

The Invisible Guys on the Mound

I was looking at the Angels starter's stats over the last couple of weeks, just to give you an overview of what I see and what you should look for. Surprisingly, I discovered they're incredibly bland. The Angels are 15-3 in their last 18 but you couldn't tell it by the starter's numbers (other than the Ws), which could be a bad sign. The lowest ERA is Colon at 4.09. The only WHIP under 1.30 is Lackey at 1.15. Let's look at one stat that is very promising, though. K/BB ratio. 2.32, which goes for best in the AL. That, of course is helped by the bullpen, but the starters still have a 2.15, which is very good considering those numbers include both Ortiz and Sele. For the millionth time, why isn't Scot Shields starting? The starter's K/BB ratio would be 2.36 if he were.

Odds and Ends

I got some great advice from you on my Correspondents league team (which has since moved back into first). Who said Angel fans weren't FLB savvy? I'm currently plotting what moves I may (or may not) make. Feel free to check the roster out at ITH and give me your feedback. I'll give you monthly updates there on the status of my Louisville Angels. Also, if you don't watch the next two between the Halos and Yanks, you're only robbing yourself. They're on tonight on ESPN2. Sele v. Vazquez. Then Lackey v. Lieber tomorrow. I'll be back this weekend with more Halo talk and another set of wings to bestow for this week's play. E-mail insidethehalo@insightbb.com and let me know who you think should get the 4th set. So far Erstad, Figgins, and Guillen each have one.

An Angel of My Very Own

Finally, on a personal note, my girlfriend became an Angels fan last weekend when I gave her a halo for her finger--with a diamond attached, of course. God really loves Anaheim fans. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Fillin' the Closet/Gettin' Figgy Wit It

2004-05-06T23:01:00.000-04:00

A Full Closet Is A Good Closet

No, I don't mean skeletons, I mean brooms--and the Angels accrued another this week sweeping the Tigers in mashing fashion, almost scoring 30 runs in 3 games. That's, of course, after taking 7 of 9 on the road. Two of the three hottest teams in baseball are 1-2 in the AL West--and it's not the A's/Mariners. The Halos finished April 13-10 and are 5-0 thus far in May. How have they done it? How do you think? 162 runs, 2nd only to the Astros, heading into play today. It certainly hasn't been the pitching, which is 8th in the AL even with the bullpen, which is 3rd in AL ERA at 3.18. Starter ERA? 5.41. Lesson? Right now, after Colon, pray that Escobar's nail and Lackey's consistency hold and then, I don't know, hope the bats are warm. This is certainly no way to play all 162 though.

GA not OK

Still no sign of Garret Anderson, but the tests are back and it's nothing serious--we think. That's a relief, 'cause all that "impinging on the nerve" stuff was makin' me nervous. It's still not good though. He's being tested for rheumatoid arthritis now, which is typically chronic, and according to Rotowire, GA says he probably won't go to NY and BAL next week. Don't expect him back when he's eligible. But hey, who needs him? The Angels are 11-2 without him, right? Well, they may not have needed him yet, but they will and GA owners should be a little worried. The last time he didn't play 150 games? 1995. Hurry back, Garret. The Angels would've been 16-0 in those 13 games if they'd had his bat (That's right--he's that good).

Gettin' Figgy Wit It

How could I have gone this far without talkin' about the new Angels sparkplug in the 3 hole (hitting him 3rd is insane--don't care what Scioscia says)? Chone has certainly been gettin' Figgy wit it out in CF--er, at SS--er, at 3B--just where can't this guy play? Dude's got 55 ABs and has already posted 13 plates, 8 bags, and oh yeah, he's hitting .327. He's got 4 triples! Pick him up? With GA's back probs lingering, Salmon out, and Eck another groin "pop" away from trouble--and don't forget Glaus and his shoulder--Figgy is gonna play most days until all of them are healthy. So, yeah, get him, because I think it'll be at least a couple more weeks until that happens. Know this, though, he's behind all those guys I mentioned. When they're healthy, his PT will be sub duty.

Meat out, Meat In

Just when you thought it was safe to not shut your eyes every 5th day when Ramon Ortiz took the hill, Scioscia replaces him with Aaron Sele in the rotation, who will go tonight. Mean anything? Meat out, meat in, I say again. Sure, Sele looked good on Saturday, but that's five innings and his trends the last three years have been more BB, less K, and more HR. That's a recipe for really thick meat--Grade A. Okay, he's been injured and maybe he's finally starting to turn it around, but for now I'd stay about as far away from Sele as you would Pepe Le Pieu. Only when Gregg hits the rotation will I feel safe. Course then, the pen will suffer with both Ortiz and Sele in it. However, I think they'd both (especially Ortiz) be better in a pen role. We'll see, but avoid JS for now. Please.

Lackey Not Lacking

Last week, I allowed myself to take a little heat for not giving Washburn enough credit this year (although his numbers are flimsy, to put it lightly). Now it's your turn, Halos readers. I got a grand total of zero e-mails agreeing (and plenty in disagreement) with my faith that John Lackey can be a quality starter. Okay, he started 0-3 with an 8+ ERA. Fine. His last two starts? 2-0, 2.63 ERA, 7 K, The Ks are a little low, but I said quality starter, not ace. If Lackey gets the kind of run support Wash has been gettin', he's gonna look golden but really be bronze. Lackey is good, people. Not great. Good. In AL leagues above 8 teams, he'd be a solid number 3 or 4 guy. Any other place, he's a pretty good stream.

It's Wing Time

It's really not even that close. Jose Guillen must not like me comparing him to the DLed Tim Salmon. Check out his line: 12-25 (.480), 3 HR, 12 RBI, 6 R--but maybe the best sign? 4 BB, 3 K. That's the kind of discipline we need to see on a regular basis. Can he do it? I'm not optimistic, but this week is clearly a good start. And, of course, the Guillen/Salmon Watch will have to be put on hiatus until Timmy can't get back into the lineup. My only disclaimer was that I made my projection based on equal playing time, but Salmon may not be able to get his bones to go enough. Scoring Wings at home? Erstad 1, Figgins 1, now Guillen 1.

Odds and Ends

Has anyone seen the D that Adam Kennedy has been sportin' lately? He's been givin' all Angels' fans some serious glovin'. It's only May, but his glove lookin' awful shiny so far--kinda goldish. . . The Correspondents league is in full swing. I'm two points out of first, after spending at least a week in the top spot in April. More info on that at Inside the Halo, because I'm asking for your help to bring me the mighty banner for our league. . . Erstad has 20 RBI, 17 R, and 4 SB, but is he worth owning? More at ITH (http://angelsflb.blogspot.com). . . The Angels get their first taste (of 19 straight) against the loaded AL East starting right now. Important tests ahead. Reporting of the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Louisville Angels/Darin Erstad: A Closer Look

2004-05-06T23:00:00.001-04:00

Let's take a look at my team in the Correspondents League. It's a 10-team roto with the correspondents from NYY, BOS, TOR, CHW, BAL, CHC, SF, SD, and PIT. As of tonight, I'm in 2nd place with 69.5 points, 2 points back.

Here's the roster:

Starters:
Ben Sheets
Roger Clemens
Livan Hernandez
Roy Halladay
Estaban Loaiza
Jose Acevedo

Middle Relief:
Akinori Otsuka
Scott Williamson

Closers:
Keith Foulke
Danny Kolb
Rocky Biddle

C: Jorge Posada
1B: David Ortiz
2B: Jose Vidro
3B: Joe Randa
SS: Orlando Cabrera
OF: Barry Bonds
OF: Magglio Ordonez
OF: Reggie Sanders
OF: Steve Finley
OF: Luis Gonzalez
2B/SS: Adam Kennedy
1B/3B: Paul Konerko
UTIL: Johnny Damon

Bench: Randy Winn
IR: Dmitri Young

Here's where you come in. I could upgrade need at 3B and could use some closer help. What moves do you see that could put me over the top? Any? I really like this team, but I'd feel better about filling those two holes I mentioned. Any "sell highs" in here? If you have any thoughts, feel free to e-mail me at angelsflb@insightbb.com. Maybe you'll save my season, who knows?

Darin Erstad is Posting the Numbers, But . . .

Should you have him on your team? Raw stats don't lie--17 R, 20 RBI, 4 SB with a .266 AVG in the first week of May--and a 14 game hitting streak! Among 1B in MLB, that's 9th in runs, 5th in RBIs, and 1st in SB. Quite a bit better than the "least productive 1B in the MLB" tag I put on him in the preseason, huh? Well, I'll agree that 1B seems to be agreeing with him, now that he doesn't have to do all that runnin' around in the grass. And you hear that when a hitter has his legs under him and completely healthy, it makes a huge difference. I'll agree.

However, let's look closer. Other numbers, which don't count in fantasy directly but affect the ones that do, show some serious warning signs. Another fantasy gamer once told me that the only numbers that matter are the one that count. That sounds like a real good way to lose your fantasy league.

Here are the less obvious numbers to fantasy gamers. I've posted Erstad's totals and where he ranks among the 26 first basemen who qualify as regulars (average 3.1 plate appearances per game):

OBP: .292 (25th) Only Jason Phillips is worse.
SLG: .339 (24th) Only ahead of the powerful JT Snow and Phillips.
OPS: .631 (24th) Again, only Snow and Phillips are worse.
BB/K: 0.17 (26th) Dead last. 4 BB, 23 K.

Obviously, none of this bodes well for DE. He may be 16th among 1B eligible players in the MLB on ESPN's Player Rater, but if he was ever trade bait, it's now. His success has strictly been provided by the hot bats (Guerrero, Guillen, Glaus) behind him. If they were to cool off, watch out. It may look like he's being really productive--and he is, really--but it's a house of cards. He could continue to be adequate, but one tough wind will bring it all down.

One more thing to note: JT Snow and Jason Phillips are currently 61st and 75th respectively among those 1B eligible on the Player Rater with similar peripheral stats. Erstad, again--16th. Do you see how far he could fall? Snow's ESPN ownership 0.4% Phillips 12.4%--and that's mainly because he's C eligible. Erstad? 82.3% People are buying into his hot streak here. Maybe someone in your league will too.

Taming the Tigers/Arena Baseball!

2004-04-30T22:57:00.000-04:00

They're Grrrrrrrrrrrrrreat!

After hitting double digit runs twice in 3 games at Comerica, the Angels are 5-1 on their current roadie, taking 2 of 3 from the mighty Tigers. Detroit's not that much of a hitter's park, despite the weak Tiger pitching staff and the fact that the Tigers offense have averaged 6 a game there so far, tied for 6th in the bigs. The Halos looked good, except for Mr. Colon. His Wednesday shellacking didn't smell very good at all, despite his fragrant last name. His line: 4 IP, 7 H, 7 ER. Worry? Are ya kiddin' me? He still fanned 6. Everyone has those starts. Bartolo just found out that even the Tigers (who are much better than last year, by the way) can still smack the ball if you get it up in the zone. When he faces the D-Rays in a few days, the smiles will be back for his owners.

Who looked great in Detroit? Try three right-handed hitters named Guerrero, Glaus, and Guillen who all went yard in the basically the toughest park for a righty to do so. They knocked in 3, 5, and 3 respectively and Guerrero and Glaus had five XBH between them. Also, we're one month in and here's an update on the Guillen/Salmon watch. In the preseason, I noted that these two "Angels in the Outfield" (sorry) would have very similar lines this season. Thus far, Salmon's health has limited his ABs slightly, but look at this--Guillen: .259/2/12 w/11R. Salmon: .188/2/10 w/8R. Pretty close except for AVG and Guillen's free-swingin' ways (17K, 5BB) compared to Salmon's (10K, 8BB) will diminish that difference over the course of the year. Right now: Guillen 90% owned. Salmon 3%.

Headline: Garret Anderson on DL; Is that right?

GA's never hit the DL in his entire MLB career. Well, he has now. Already out most of last week, he continued to sit through Detroit and is now back in CA skipping the MIN series to meet with team doctors. What's the word? Well, it could be serious. Don't go buy milk and batteries just yet, but it's possible that his back problems could be something nerve-related, which is much more serious than a muscle. Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll says that because of the intermittent loss of sensation in GA's hands, it could be a disc impinging on the nerves. Now, I'm not a doctor, but that doesn't sound good. The results of his tests aren't in yet and he may very well be back May 7th against TB, but be prepared that for once with GA, this could linger and keep him out.

Other Broken Wings

Eckstein heard his groin "pop" according to just about every media avenue that covered the story (which is really more than I cared to know) when he slid back into first on a pickoff move Tuesday. He couldn't even sit up later that night yet Wednesday was back out sprinting and doing stretching exercises. A Thera-Gesic miracle? He could see a little action in MIN, even on the Turf-crete that is the Metrodome. Escobar bled on himself for 4 innings last Saturday because of a split nail. He might be replaced by Gregg or Sele tomorrow. Don't be surprised if he goes to the DL retroactively. But that's all speculation, so wait for a game time decision. Maybe Gregg will get to showcase his stuff as early as tomorrow. If so, expect Ramon Ortiz to start looking over his shoulder.

The Platoon That Isn't

Adam Kennedy didn't play yesterday for the second time this year, Scioscia giving him a "regular day off". Kennedy has only sat two days, both against lefties. Since 2001, he's only averaged 94 ABs per year against LHP (20% of his ABs) and while he's already faced southpaws 21 times this year (30% of his ABs) and he has started in 6 of the 8 games that the Halos faced LHP, don't be surprised if Scioscia continues to give him his "regular days off" coincidentally when the Angels face LHP. Halter has shown he can do adequately (said generously) in a fill-in role at 2B and Amezaga could spell him some. Kennedy should continue to play most days, but this "non-existent platoon" will probably continue to exist. Should it? Kennedy's OPS vs. LHP this year? .840.

Eating Crow. . . But Not Much

In my preseason analysis, I said that Washburn's success in '04 hinged on "two things: Ks and HRs." Apparently, I wasn't optimistic enough for many of you and my mail let me know. One reader even claimed he was "local", giving him a better read than me, although unless by "local" he meant he actually knows the players, I really don't know how that helps. Anyway--the numbers. K/9: 7.1 (up 2.0). Big improvement. HR/9: 0.9. Not great, but better than league average. One more thing I said was the Ws would return "with run support". So far: 11.93 R/9, which leads the AL. I'll concede I didn't give enough credit to Wash for his potential to rebound, but I just want to point out that his 4-1 record comes as no surprise to me considering the stats.

On Deck . . . Arena Baseball!

That's what Scioscia called playing in MIN, according to the LA Times. Despite it's moniker "HomerDome", it's actually a tougher park to hit one out than most people believe. That will help our beloved "Meat Machine" Ortiz, Lackey, or Sele (if he subs for Escobar) who have all shown tendencies for mucho fly balls. The Metrodome is, however, the only place to play a baseball version of Horse by calling one "off the speaker in right-center and over the trash bag" for a dinger. The Angels face a hot Twins team who'll throw Carlos Silva, Brad Radke, and Johan Santana. I'm sticking with my original pick of 2 out of 3 here to finish the roadie 7-2. Expect quite a few runs this weekend and balls bouncing everywhere. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen, ESPN.

Two Brooms/More Wings

2004-04-26T19:39:00.000-04:00

That's two brooms

The mighty Halos picked up another broom last night after polishing off the Elephant Men one last time to the tune of 4-3. Now, I don't want you Regular Readers (both of you) to be shocked, but I want to admit that I did add Ramon Ortiz in my 12-team league yesterday. I cringed as I pushed the Add Player button, but it was like this--I was up only 4 Ks and my opponent had Pedro and the D-Train on the hill. I added Jeff Suppan and our beloved "Meat Machine" Ortiz because they were facing the Brewers and the A's, the two teams that have whiffed the most this year. Fortunately, ERA was already a lost cause for the week, so it made the decision less taxing. I ended up on top by 9 Ks, so Ortiz's 6 whiffs gave me some breathing room. Don't worry, though--he's back in the FA pool.

As for the real game, RO didn't have a terrible outing. His most impressive stat? 7 groundouts, 2 flyouts. Hard to give up a lotta dingers with that ratio. Don't start expecting 16 wins like Bud and Scioscia though. They're gettin' paid to be optimistic. You--and I--aren't. He still threw 110 pitches in only 5 IP and his ERA is still a fat 9.77. Scoiscia told Ortiz he wasn't allowed to shake Molina off at all. Here's to hoping that rule continues. As for the A's, it was the first time they'd been swept in 48 series--and at home no less, where they are 84 games over .500 since the beginning of 2001. I'd say that's a pretty good statement, even for April. What we may be forgetting, though, is that the Angels didn't face Hudson or Mulder this weekend.

It's a bear of a bullpen

Let me give you a couple of numbers: 61 relief IP, 68 K. That's everyone. From the weakest to K-Rod. I keep waiting for his sickening breaking stuff to make some poor AL hitter vomit right there in the box. And it's not like he's throwing wild either. 2 BB in 10.2 IP for Frankie. If you can get him, he could really help out in some add-on Ks and maybe even a late W or three. Trade an overachiever for him--middle relievers aren't highly valued, but he'd be a nice pickup. Let me restate something else about the pen. The Angels have two guys in there who'd make a much better 5th SP than Ortiz. I've already covered Shields' credentials at Inside the Halo (http://angelsflb.blogspot.com) and now we've got Contestant #2.

Meet Kevin Gregg. Kevin has 14.1 IP in '04, with a miniscule ERA of 0.63, having fanned 15 batters so far while only allowing 13 base runners. Kevin went 15-7 between AA and AAA last year with 26 starts and 158 IP. He fanned 135 batters and posted a 3.82 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He's only 25 years old and he appears primed to step in given the opportunity. He enjoys long walks on the beach at night with his dog Sissy-fu and collects Yellowstone National Park postcards. Only one sentence in all that is false--I'll let you pick which one. KG is primed. By June, he could be in the rotation. Watch and wait.

Is GA OK?

All signs point to 'yes'. There was (and probably still is) some alarm when Anderson missed his 4th straight game for the first time ever, but Scioscia seems to think it'll be days not weeks. If you've got weekly trannies, I'd definitely consider benching him this week though. If you're here at ESPN (and you are now at least), then sit him tomorrow but monitor the situation. He'll most likely be back before the weekend. GA is durable, so don't worry.

Angel Wings

This time I'm bestowing a set of wings to the man who already is flying around the base paths. The last four days Chone Figgins has been in the starting lineup and has shown his worth. In only 14 AB, he's put up 5 hits (.357), 3 R, and that's right, 4 SB. If he could ever get regular playing time, he'd be an excellent speed source. Is regular playing time in his future? Not unless I can convince Scioscia to let him play first for Erstad. That won't happen (and shouldn't even though I like Figgins. Imagine trying to hit a 5'8", 160 lb target at first base). All the other starters are producing and will continue to. Here's hoping he spells at 2B, SS, and all OF positions. He's a sparkplug. With Figgins picking up his first set of wings, that's 1 for Figgins and 1 for Darin Erstad if you're scoring at home.

On Deck

The longest roadie of the year continues with three in Detroit and three in Minnesota. I'm optimistic for a 4-2 finish, making it 7-2 for the trip. I like Lackey to get his first win against Cornejo on Tuesday, while the game that worries me the most is Thursday. Washburn may be 3-1 but his ERA is 6.10 and he's walked 8 in his last two starts (10 IP). He's yet to see the 7th inning and Bonderman can wheel, even if his ERA is a slightly worse 6.65. Plus, the Tigers seem to think they can beat everyone right now. It wouldn't be out of the question to go for another broom though. And three brooms before the end of April would be nice. Real nice. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Two Weeks In/Angels Get Their Wings

2004-04-21T17:59:00.000-04:00

7-up, 7-down

We're just two weeks into the fantasy (and the actual) season, and the Halos after a hot start are just .500. This is mainly due to a sweltering 1-4 start against the Rangers, who have the Angels to thank for being anywhere remotely near .500 as well. I know it's April, and I know the Rangers are expected to finish last, but I'll say right now that they provide the least favorable matchup of any team in the AL West for the Halos (yes, even worse than the Elephant Men). I realize I'm starting from a 4-1 advantage, but I'd be willing to venture that the Angels may not have a winning record against the boys from Arlington for the season. Good thing for Angels' fans is that after this week's series, they don't meet again until July 21. Time to make some adjustments.

I hate to say I told ya so…no I don't

Can someone please read back to me my remarks on the disaster I said it would be to have Ramon Ortiz in the rotation? Didn't I say something about a significantly decreased k/9 rate and a declining groundball/flyball ratio with a history of giving up long balls to begin with? Yes, I'm certain I mentioned something about all that. I recall saying in my last column that "Meat Machine" Ortiz would most likely get rocked by Texas. What was his line that day? 2.2 IP, 7 ER. What was his line against them yesterday? 2.1 IP, 4 ER. Current ERA: 12.66. Can't Scioscia and Black see that his success was due to finishing 4th in AL run support last year (on a team that finished 11th in AL runs scored no less). Ramon Ortiz won the lottery getting 16 Ws in '03. It won't happen again.

Donnelly's nose on the mend
Scioscia said in the LA Daily News that Donnelly's back doing cardio exercises and pitcher's fielding practice. While Donnelly could come back and find himself 3rd in the bullpen hierarchy behind Percival and Rodriguez, he's still a good add to your fantasy team if you're looking for a low ERA and WHIP. He's also struck out more than a batter an inning for the last 2 years. Keep an eye on this and if he comes back soon, grab him if you're troubled in those areas.

What the Eck?

Don't look now, but David Eckstein, who was drafted on average 25th among ML SSs in this year's ESPN drafts, is currently the 13th best SS in the bigs, according to the Player Rater. He's hit just under .300, swiped a couple of bags, and scored 5 runs. Will he continue to be helpful at, say, the 2B/SS slot? Here's some signs that point to 'yes': only 1 K in 54 ABs (historically he strikes out in less than 10% of his ABs), Scioscia's running philosophy could net him 25+ SBs, and oh yeah, he's hitting in front of guys named Guerrero, Anderson, Glaus, Guillen, and Salmon. Not only that, but he's currently out performing much higher drafted SSs like Berroa, Cintron, Furcal, and two guys named Jeter and Rodriguez.

Guillen/Salmon watch

Something else that I contended in the preseason was that Tim Salmon's line at the end of the year would look conspicuously like the much more-hyped Jose Guillen's. So far, let's take a look: Guillen--.264, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 7 R. Salmon--.188, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R. While it's close except for the AVG, keep in mind that Guillen has already whiffed 14 times compared to Salmon's 7, while only walking once more. This will not bode well for his AVG in the future, although the one advantage he may have over Salmon in the long run could be AVG. Overall, though, Salmon can be had much easier and is likely to provide almost the same stats, assuming he stays healthy. Currently his knee is sore, but he's day-to-day. As long as he's regular, deal Guillen for an upgrade and grab Salmon.

Every time I write a column…

. . . an Angels gets his wings. I'll take a look at the hottest Angel--fantasy wise--in the last seven days and tell you if he can help your team and where. We might also clip a few wings for those who are performing like Ramon Ortiz, but for now I'm going to leave him and his gopherballs alone. This week, we're pinning some wings on Darin Erstad. Yeah, I know I asked all of you nicely to shy away from DE, saying he could be the least productive full-time 1B in MLB this year. Well, actually I still stand by that, but his line this week looks like this: 6-for-23 (.261), 3 R, 3 SB. It's mainly the swipes which have made him so valuable to fantasy owners this week, but it will continue to be his only strength, and even then only to the tune of 20 or so. You can find those elsewhere.

On Deck

After muddling through two more with Texas, the Halos head away from home for their longest roadie of the year at 9 games. There'll be stops in OAK, DET, and MIN along the way, marking the first games the Angels play outside the AL West. I'm thinking that Anaheim could feast on some Tiger pitching, and although the Twins are hot, they're beat up and they've got guys who are playing above their talent level, which won't last forever. Hopefully they'll be off the hot horse by April 30. The A's series will be fun to watch. The Elephant men will most likely throw Redman and Harden over the weekend, where the Halos will have Escobar and the Meat Machine. As for Game 1 on Friday? Washburn vs. Zito. Should be real fun. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Draft Quick Hits, 4.9.2004

2004-04-09T14:58:00.000-04:00

Vladimir Guerrero, OF: Currently going 1st round (4th overall, 2nd OF). YOU take him: This is going to sound like "nonsense from the new guy", but I wouldn't take him if I had the 4th pick. Beltran, Garciaparra, and Ramirez all seem like they would be better picks to me. That he's a first-rounder I'm not disputing, but a top 5? The back questions and the lack of SB (likely a permanent deal now) leave him just out of the top five. Are you going to be disappointed with him though? No way.

Garret Anderson, OF: Currently going round 5-7 (17th OF). YOU take him: That's about right. Garret is a solid 2nd OF for your team, and spending an early round pick like this isn't going to hurt you. His value has fallen recently a little, putting him more in line with where he should probably fall in the draft mix. He'll hit around .300 (but maybe not over) and he's a definite bet for 25 HR and with his last two years being his career best in SLG, you can probably bank on more than that this year. Also, as of today he has no deal for next year. That could factor into his free agent thinking for '05.

Bartolo Colon, P: Currently going round 6-8 (16 SP). YOU take him: Again, that's about the right spot. Colon's certainly in the top 15 starters in MLB and he'd be a great ace for your staff. Pitching in always easier to come by than hitting, but to make an exception here to grab BC wouldn't be a bad move. He's not going to get shelled that often and his depth into games gives him a chance at more Ws (and Ls). Good K rate and his control's at his career best right now. His only weakness--1090 IP the last 5 years. That could really start to take its toll.

Troy Percival, P: Currently going round 7-9 (8 RP). YOU take him: TP's on the way out. Sure, he's had 8 straight years with 25 Svs, and he could do it again, but at 34, with a bad hip, and a K/9 that went from 10.9 in '02 to 8.8 in '03, you've gotta figure his fortune's gonna run out sometime. I'm not necessarily sayin' this is the year (his OBA was still .192 last year, his 3rd straight year under .200), but he's mighty close to crossing the line in the sand from solid closer to "iffy". Don’t take him in the top ten closers based on name recognition. Wait for double digits and snag him if he's still there.

Troy Glaus, 3B: Currently going round 7-9 (5th 3B). YOU take him: Most folks are still bidding on his .284/47/102 season in '00. The 47 HR is more of a reality (although still high) than the .284. Don't bet on Troy hitting over .270 and you won't be disappointed. Troy is not an elite 3B anymore (only Rolen, Lowell, and Chavez qualify there), but he beats out guys like Blalock and Ramirez in sheer power (and he'll run more than both of them put together). He's steadily making more contact each year (his Ks have fallen 4 straight years--last year projected out to another decrease), but for now, I wouldn't expect a huge spike in AVG. Take 5th or take him 7th, it's entirely up to how much faith you have. I'd take him 5th.

Jose Guillen, OF: Currently going round late teens (52nd OF). YOU take him: Jose could go either way right now, and because of the uncertainty, I'd probably take him as a 5th/6th OF with an option to sub in case he goes back to his old stats. He's 27, so the time is now to lay the framework for what remains of his career. I'll tell you with confidence at this stage the .311 AVG of '03 is completely over his head. Guys who K 95 times and BB 24 don't hit .311 over the long haul. The power could be more legit (just like Glaus), but despite the buzz about Oakland, Angel Stadium is even less of a righty's HR park and he just hit 8 in OAK. Bet on almost 20 HR and probably .270 with AVG. There are safer bets.

Adam Kennedy, 2B: Currently going late teens (10th 2B). YOU take him: Assuming you took an elite level 2B earlier in the draft (please do), I'll say that Kennedy is just about the best candidate for your 2B/SS slot in baseball. Even if he's your main guy, you won't be completely disappointed. He gained a truckload of patience last year (going from 19 BB in '02 to 45 BB in '03 and dropping his K from 80 to 73) and if that sticks, his AVG could rise for real this time. The .312 in '02 was a mirage, so a jump this year to, say, .285 with the same patience as last year would be legit. He's got a little pop and a little speed (both legit). Don't get crazy, but Kennedy is a good pick in the 18-20 round range. Take him as early as 8th at 2B.

Darin Erstad, OF: Currently going at clean up time (68th OF). YOU take him: I really wouldn't. He's just got very little to add that you can't find elsewhere with a much greater upside. Yeah, he went .355/25/100 in '00, but if you asked a Magic 8-ball if that were going to happen again, you'd no doubt get something like "Not Very Likely" as your answer. This could be the least productive everyday 1B in the majors this year. Look elsewhere.

Tim Salmon, OF: Currently going at clean up time (80th OF). YOU take him: Now this is an Angel that could actually give you some significant help with a last-round-or-two pick. The power's not what it once was, but his patience is at career-high levels and his SLG took a little spike in the 2nd half last year. He could certainly go .285/20/85 and with a last pick, that ain't bad at all. Funny how his line could look very similar to Guillen's who'll go probably at least five rounds earlier.

Francisco Rodriguez, P: Currently going at clean up time. YOU take him: Clearly he's got talent and will help air condition Angel Stadium throughout the summer, but he's still only 22 and there'll be speed bumps. He's had some pretty good fortune so far, and could certainly give you a cheap win here and there, but don't bank on a sub-3.50 ERA. If you've got the spot, he won't hurt you, but he won't get you many saves either as long as Percival's healthy. If Troy should go down though, he'll get the nod to close because Donnelly won't be 100% for a while, so you'll be glad you had the insurance. All this is wonderful, but like most ESPN drafters, for now I wouldn't roster him.

Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.

ITH Fantasy Halos

2004-04-06T16:08:00.000-04:00

Each week, ITH awards a silver halo to the Angel player who was most valuable to fantasy teams. A golden one is given to each month's MVP, and a platinum halo will be awarded to the season MVP. Sure, they're fake and non-existent, but what's the harm in having a little fun?

So far this season, it breaks down as follows:

Silver
Vladimir Guerrero: 4
Garret Anderson: 3
Jose Guillen: 3
Chone Figgins: 2
Aaron Sele: 2
Darin Erstad: 2
Bartolo Colon: 2
Kelvim Escobar: 1
John Lackey: 1

Gold
April: Troy Glaus
May: Jose Guillen
June: Vladimir Guerrero
July: John Lackey

ITH would love to hear your thoughts weekly, monthly, and for the year on who should receive their Halos at insidethehalo@insightbb.com.

Regular Season is Here/Infield Preview

2004-04-02T14:53:00.000-05:00

Headin' North

The Angels wrapped up the Cactus League with a 16-13-1 record (as if that matters). What does matter is that Ramon Ortiz has been given the 5 hole in the rotation that we discussed last time. I'm glad it wasn't Sele, but I'm not glad it was Ortiz either. I've been getting e-mail from some folks in CA who hold RO much nearer and dearer than I do, but their praise hasn't lifted my hopes or expectations for Ortiz. Pitching coach Bud Black said that he sees no reason why RO can't be a 15-16 game winner again, according to the LA Daily News. My statement would've been that I can see one reason--only one reason. Run support. Sele now makes 8.5 mil to be the long man in the pen. I do suppose that's better than the 11.7 mil the Angels are paying Kevin Appier in '04 to pitch for the Royals.

From the "Halos Hurt" deparment, Bengie Molina left the game Wednesday with more hammy problems. Scioscia says he may sit over the weekend against LA but will play Tuesday against Seattle to open the season. He's fought and won these battles before, but keep an eye on this. I think Bengie could help you out if you're weak at C and he's healthy. Also, Brendan Donnelly could be out a while, as short as next weekend, as long as June. I would expect something in between, but maybe closer to the June mark. Let's hope it's not too long. Finally, when the cut to 25 finally comes--and it's required by Sunday--I'll let you know who stayed and went and what it all means. For now, as promised, let's go around the horn to Darin Erstad.

Darin Erstad, 1B

His 2000 line looked like this: .355/25/100, 121 R/28 SB (You just knew I was going to reference that, didn't you?). In '04, people are wondering whether to roster him at all. Is there any chance of him posting numbers like he did before? Does the change to 1B mean anything? No and not much. He hasn't slugged over .400 since '00, and his OBP hasn't topped .325. He hits way too many ground balls to hit more than 10 HRs, but the power's gone anyway. Will he still run? Yeah, maybe, if he's healthy (right now he is). So--what to do? He'll keep his OF eligibility all year, so he could help you with a little speed, but that's it. I'm surprised that 33% of people in ESPN leagues have wasted the space. Here's a prediction--this could be the least productive full-time 1B in MLB in '04.

Adam Kennedy, 2B

Last time, I talked about one major problem in the Angels infield. Well, now we're past it (Erstad) and from here, things get better. Kennedy is just one year removed from a team-leading .312 AVG (.269 in '03). While he won't see .312 in '04, I would expect him to make lasting changes in a positive direction to his AVG if he continues the patience he showed in '03 (73 K, 45 BB), which was the best of his career. He'll bat 9th so don't count on RBI, but the improved offense will probably boost his R (71 in '03). SBs have been consistent and will remain so. Maybe the biggest question is whether he can continue his upward HR trend. AK's a flyball hitter, so that's positive but I'd bet on 10 with the knowledge that it could be more. He's maybe the best choice for the 2B/SS spot in MLB.

David Eckstein, SS

Eckstein is known it seems league-wide as the guy who looks the least like a MLB player every time he takes the field. How does he manage to get the job done? Can he help you at all on your team? Yeah, I think he can. It'll be marginal, but sometimes those marginal players make all the difference. He's got speed and will help there (like Kennedy) and batting at the top of this order will certainly score some runs if he can just get on base. Last year's AVG was down big, but that was ruined by a .236 first half. He was normal after the break (.280). Expect that AVG and maybe a little higher. As for SB, that's the Halos' game. Expect him (and Erstad and Kennedy) to run, even with the new bats in the lineup. Expecting 20 swipes would not be ridiculous at all.

Troy Glaus, 3B

Here's where I smile. Glaus hit 47 HR in '00, 41 in '01, but many people think that after 30 in '02, and 16 in '03 (projected to 29 full season), his power will continue to fall. Will it? I say no. Mid-to-upper 30s wouldn't be outta the question, because his SLG was rebounding last year before the break (.490 up from .453 in' 02). His '03 K numbers projected to be his lowest in his career, while his BBs stayed pretty stable. He's making more contact, which should bring his AVG up--a little. I'd expect around .260 instead of the normal .250. His SBs could also be their highest (around 12-15). He'll bat fifth in a loaded order, so simply put, his value is probably as low as its going to be for a long while, so get him now at a position that's the shallowest in FLB this year.

On Deck

Next time we'll wrap up the previews with the guys who roam the grass, who may be the best group in the AL (especially as long as Nixon is out in BOS). Also, the Draft Quick Hits are updated at Inside the Halo (http://angelsflb.blogspot.com). The e-mail is angelsflb@insightbb.com if you need it. I'm pumped for the regular season--it's almost here. Colon will face Jamie Moyer on Tuesday at Safeco Park to open the '04 campaign. So grab your hat, bat, and glove and let's get on the road to the World Series. The NBA and NHL may be headed into the playoffs and the Final Four starts tomorrow, but in just a few days, baseball fans will remember why a long fly ball in the bottom of the ninth is still the most beautiful thing in sports. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Draft Quick Hits, 4.2.2004

2004-04-02T14:23:00.000-05:00

Merry Baseball/Rotation Preview

2004-03-29T14:20:00.000-05:00

Opening Eve

Where you one of those kids who got up at the crack of dawn and rushed down the stairs to see what was under the tree for you on Christmas morning? Wait a minute--weren't we all? Well, that sacred baseball holiday, Opening Day, is upon us, and the players are penciled in the lineups with care, hoping a trip to the World Series will soon be there. Our fun begins early Tuesday morning, when we can rush to the television and see what MLB has in store for us in 2004 when the AL Champion New York Yankees take on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at 5:05 ET on ESPN2. Visions of mammoth home runs will be dancing in my head tonight and let me say I can't wait to open my present--the regular season--tomorrow morning. Are you getting up early too?

The Rotation--Bartolo Colon

Every rotation needs a workhorse for its ace. The Angels have one. Bartolo Colon has finished in the top 10 in IP the last 3 seasons in the AL (adding his MON totals w/ his CLE totals in 2002). BC goes deep often, and it shows with his 82 decisions in the past 3 years (49 W). At 30, he's established, he's strong, and he's low risk. He's one of the top 20 starters in baseball, top 10 in the AL. He's gonna give you an ERA under 4 (maybe closer to 3) and his declining k/9 took a step back up in '03 without affecting his always superb control. With the Angels offense he has behind him, I'd expect Colon to hit 15 W's easy, maybe closing in on the big 2-0. As long as he keeps it in the park (and Angel Stadium is the best pitcher's park he's ever called home), he'll be great this year.

Jarrod Washburn

At #2, Washburn looks to rebound from his worst season on the hill. He won 18 games in '02 with an ERA of almost 3 flat (3.15). Can we expect a rebound this year? Watch two things: Ks and HRs. In '02, he posted a 6.1 k/9 rate, which was just below league average. Last year--5.1. Doesn't sound like big drop, but it is. He can maybe get away with striking out less because of his excellent control, but he's got to fan more than five per nine. Also, last year he allowed homer-and-a-half per 9 (read: awful) where in '02, it was less than one a start. He's got to keep it this side of the fence in '04 to be effective. My guess? Forget the 3 ERA. He's got to fan closer to his '02 totals before he'll sniff even a 3-something. The Ws could return though with the run support.

Kelvim Escobar

Of all the Angels starters, he's the only one I saw throw live last year, and let me tell ya, he can be flat sick. There's no question he's got the talent and the stuff. Last year he returned to the rotation after spending '02 in the pen. As a starter last year, he went 12-8 and posted a sub-4 ERA. This year he'll do it again with one caveat--2002 IP=78. 2003=180. That's a huge jump. His first and second half stats were a lot alike (ERA 4.30 both halves, WHIP decreased 0.01 in 2nd half), and he actually went 8-4 after the break. Where's the problem? He struck out almost 3 batters less per 9, while increasing his bb/9 to 4. That's definitely a sign of tiring out. He's been in the rotation before, so that's a plus, but to ignore those 2nd half realities in '03 would be dangerous.

John Lackey

Let's face it--John Lackey was definitely found lacking in his first full year on the mound. Some raw data: 10-16, 4.63 ERA, 1.42 WHIP in '03. Not for real then? Not so fast. Lackey improved over the course of his first full season (2nd half ERA=3.47). He's striking out more hitters per 9 now than he was in the minors. That's certainly something to note, considering numbers like that usually go the other way when advancing a level. His control is superb (a trend for this rotation), and his only weakness last year was really a tendency to give up the long ball (another trend in this rotation). He's only 25, and if he continues to grow, he'll turn into the pitcher that people thought he was during late '02. My guess--Lackey won't be lacking that much longer.

The 5 Hole

I'm calling this spot the five hole because whoever ends up with it doesn't deserve to have their name on it. The two candidates? Ramon Ortiz and Aaron Sele. Ortiz posted a 5.20 ERA last year and Sele a 5.79. Ortiz gives out HRs like they're breath mints and has for 5 years. He's not overpowering and his OBA was .292 in '03. How did he win 16 then? Try 6.35 run support, 4th in AL, 9th in MLB. Sele looked terrible last year, and while he was battling injury, his k/9 has fallen 5 straight years and his hr/9 has risen for 4 straight. Now, I'm not Emeril, but that's a recipe for disaster. Add the fact that he BBed more than he Ked over 121 IP last year and I'd steer clear if I was Scioscia. Who should get the spot then? I'll tell ya who. Scot Shields. Will he? Not anytime soon.

Inside the Halo

For the interest of continuing at a rate that will get us caught up for the regular season, I'll cover the bullpen and the backstops at Inside the Halo at http://angelsflb.blogspot.com. In short, Percival's the closer, but he's on the way out, Brendan Donnelly is out with a potentially serious nose problem, and K-Rod could be looking at a much higher ERA this year. Next time, we'll go around the horn in the infield--and I'll tell ya it looks really good, expect for one major thing. For now, though, I've gotta go set out my milk and cookies the Yanks and D-Rays. I'm hoping Posada gives me a couple dingers as a stocking stuffer to get me started out right in the correspondent's league. Merry Baseball to all, and to all a good night. Reporting for the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

The Case for Scot Shields

2004-03-29T10:11:00.000-05:00

If you've read the breakdown of the 5 hole in the Angels rotation, you know that Halos should pray for rain every fifth day. However, they wouldn't have to if they'd just throw both Sele and Ortiz in the pen and give the nod to Scot Shields. Why this isn't obvious is beyond me.

Shields posted a sub-3 ERA in 148 IP last year and a 3.89 ERA in 78 IP as a starter. That's more than a run better than both Ortiz and Sele. His control was unbelievable as a starter, with only 1.5 bb/9, compared to 3.2 for Ortiz and 4.3 for Sele. Some other obvious things that literally jump off the page for him are his k/9 rate. Shields: 6.7. Ortiz: 4.7. Sele: 3.9. Both Ortiz's and Sele's WHIPs were over 1.50, while Shields was under 1.20. Why this isn't obvious to Scioscia is beyond me. The only thing I can imagine is that Shields struggled mightily as a starter in AAA in '00 and '01. Still, his 5.29 ERA and 1.37 WHIP totals at Salt Lake in 2001 were better than Ortiz and Sele posted last year (okay, actually Ortiz's ERA was 5.20, but oooooh, Ortiz was better by 0.09. Big deal.). Ortiz actually had a complete game last year in which he struck out a grand total of zero. Further, Ortiz would actually be better in short stints or long relief. In 45 pitches or less last year, his OBA was around .250. After that it rose alarmingly to .314. Am I makin' any sense here?

There's really every reason to give Shields an opportunity to start again, especially after his brief stint in the rotation last year. We can only hope that Scioscia and pitching coach Bud Black will finally see the light early in the season when Sele's walkin' everyone who steps into the box, and Ortiz is backin' that up with more grand slams than Denny's. Please put Shields in the rotation, guys.

Bullpen/Backstop Preview

2004-03-29T09:16:00.001-05:00

Hey, great, you made the trek over from the ESPN site. Let's take a look at the Halo bullpen, shall we? The Halos had an AL-leading 3.15 ERA last year and what's even better this year is that there really aren't any new faces from other places. Can we expect the same thing again? My answer would be--eh, maybe. How's that for bold?

Troy Percival

He's the closer. As well he should be. He's saved at least 27 games in each of the past eight seasons, the longest streak in the majors. Great run. Is it over? Not yet, but the time is approaching. He's 34, and that hip is just a tweak or two away from being serious all over again. While he's healthy, expect him to keep producing like he has been over the last eight year though. TP's still got all the skills and he'll ride those out as long as his body will let him. He's now longer a top 10 closer, but he's about as solid as it gets outside of the that group.

Save Opportunties?

It's all about the closer in fantasy baseball, the rest of the guys in the pen usually drawing little or no attention until they're giving us those saves we need so bad. Don't expect Brendan Donnelly to be giving you any soon. His nose condition, which has now resulted in three surgeries, is getting very serious. His return to should now be considered under the category of "no rush". His health's the most important and I think I speak for all of us when I say I wish him the best. K-Rod certainly still deserves his moniker and is now second in line behind Percy. He's got a great future ahead but there could be some speed bumps ahead. He got some great help in the field last year and was very fortunate. I would expect his 3.03 ERA to rise this year, maybe a lot. However, don't fret, he's still looking at great things ahead.

Blocking the Plate

The Halos will possibly break camp with three catchers--the Molinas and either Wil Nieves or Josh Paul. The only one who should concern you for your fantasy team is Molina--version Bengie. He's the two time defending AL Gold Glover back there, but that's not why he's fantasy viable. Around the All-Star Break last year, Bengie decided to start swinging at just about everything. Unlike most players who make this move, he still made contact almost all of the time. His power increased after this move as well, so it was double the pleasure. Never walking is bad, but hardly ever striking out makes up for it. Expect the HRs to stay this year, and--gasp--he could hit .300 this year. I know you just said, "What?", but it's true. The only worry you have with him on your roster is his hamstrings, which caused him to miss 15 games this spring and only allowed to complete his second game in a row yesterday. Scioscia says he won't play less once the season starts, but I'd keep an eye on it. Upside is 20 HR, .300 AVG. I know he's only hit over .280 twice in his career, but you can thank me in October if he does reach this admittedly rather lofty goal by the end of the season.

Traded!/Season Preview

2004-03-25T09:11:00.001-05:00

I've Been Traded!

Following the same path Vladimir Guerrero took in free agency, I've crossed over from the NL East to the AL West in exchange for a bag of sunflower seeds, a bowl of ranch dip, and a correspondent to be named later. I would just like to say that I enjoyed my time with Montreal, but I'm pumped to be your source for all your Angels' fantasy fancies in 2004. My archive site is already up at http://angelsflb.blogspot.com, although most of what you'll find there at this point is a whole slew of Montreal Expos information disguised in a Halos' color scheme. But, my friends, that's all about to change from here on. The e-mail, angelsflb@insightbb.com, is all set up and ready for you to take advantage of as well. Any questions you have, feel free to shoot me a line.

Where to Begin?

It's less than a week until the first regular season game for MLB and we've gotta a lotta ground to cover. Despite my sporty new silver halo, I unfortunately don't have the supernatural ability to catch you completely up overnight. I will, however, over the course of the next few weeks (hopefully less) be giving you a piece-by-piece breakdown of the Halos. I'll work hard to get you up to speed with the rest of the league, and we'll hit our stride early enough in the season that it'll be like I was here from the first day of camp.

Remember that Silver Thing With All the Flags?

With a 77-85 finish in 2003, most folks outside the former Edison International, now Angel Stadium have forgotten about that hardware the Halos hoisted just two years ago. Is this team that far removed from the World Championship team of 2002? I think you'd be surprised. Obviously after adding Guerrero, Guillen, Escobar, and Colon the A's and Mariners certainly have good cause to look over their shoulders as see if that 19-game gap between the Angels and first place is going to shrink. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they definitely don't like what they see on the horizon.

Draft Quick Hits

While I don't have any in-depth analysis complete just yet (I mean, come on, I just got shipped yesterday), I do have a complete listing of every Halo player who is being drafted (or maybe should be drafted) available on the archive site along with some quick analysis regarding where they're being taken, if that's too high/low, and just how each of them could help you bring home that silver thing with all the flags in your fantasy league this year (oh wait, I meant your banner/t-shirt). I'll update these at least weekly until April 16th (the last day eligible to draft on ESPN), changing the projections as necessary to give you the most complete breakdown on when, where, and why to take the Angels in your draft.

Juice Up the Battery

If we're gonna get this flight off the ground, we're gonna need a battery rundown (but not a rundown battery--yeah, corny). And that's just what we'll tackle next time. From the mound to behind the plate, the Angels certainly have at least a couple of guys who could help out huge this year. And even if they don't, well hey, it's still always fun talkin' baseball. Click the e-mail notification link at the top right part of the page if you wanna be kept in the halo. Until then, reporting for the Expos, er, Angels, this is Matt Allen--ESPN.

Content Note

2004-03-25T02:56:00.000-05:00

I've just recently been traded from the Montreal Expos beat to that of your Anaheim Angels. While most future content on this site will be focused strictly to that of the Halos, I have brought all my Montreal baggage along with me and want to note that all content as of and prior to 3.24.2004 is Expos related. Feel free to buff up on the 'Spos while I'm churning out the Angels previews over the next few weeks.

Draft Quick Hits, 3.25.2004

2004-03-25T02:47:00.000-05:00

Vladimir Guerrero, OF: Currently going 1st round (4th overall, 2nd OF). YOU take him: This is going to sound like "nonsense from the new guy", but I wouldn't take him if I had the 4th pick. Beltran, Garciaparra, and Ramirez all seem like they would be better picks to me. That he's a first-rounder I'm not disputing, but a top 5? The back questions and the lack of SB (likely a permanent deal now) leave him just out of the top five. Are you going to be disappointed with him though? No way.

Garret Anderson, OF: Currently going round 5-7 (17th OF). YOU take him: That's about right. Garret is a solid 2nd OF for your team, and spending an early round pick like this isn't going to hurt you. His value has fallen recently a little, putting him more in line with where he should probably fall in the draft mix. He'll hit around .300 (but maybe not over) and he's a definite bet for 25 HR and with his last two years being his career best in SLG, you can probably bank on more than that this year.

Bartolo Colon, P: Currently going round 6-8 (15 SP). YOU take him: Again, that's about the right spot. Colon's certainly in the top 15 starters in MLB and he'd be a great ace for your staff. Pitching in always easier to come by than hitting, but to make an exception here to grab BC wouldn't be a bad move. He's not going to get shelled that often and his depth into games gives him a chance at more Ws (and Ls). Good K rate and his control's at his career best right now. His only weakness--1090 IP the last 5 years. That could really start to take its toll.

Troy Percival, P: Currently going round 7-9 (16 RP). YOU take him: TP's on the way out. Sure, he's had 8 straight years with 25 Svs, and he could do it again, but at 34, with a bad hip, and a K/9 that went from 10.9 in '02 to 8.8 in '03, you've gotta figure his fortune's gonna run out sometime. I'm not necessarily sayin' this is the year (his OBA was still .192 last year, his 3rd straight year under .200), but he's mighty close to crossing the line in the sand from solid closer to "iffy". Don’t take him in the top ten closers based on name recognition. Wait for double digits and snag him if he's still there.

Troy Glaus, 3B: Currently going round 7-9 (5th 3B). YOU take him: Most folks are still bidding on his .284/47/102 season in '00. The 47 HR is more of a reality (although still high) than the .284. Don't bet on Troy hitting over .270 and you won't be disappointed. Troy is not an elite 3B anymore (only Rolen, Lowell, and Chavez qualify there), and the only place he beats out guys like Blalock and Ramirez is in sheer power. He's steadily making more contact each year (his Ks have fallen 4 straight years--last year projected out to another decrease), but for now, I wouldn't expect a spike in AVG. Take 5th or take him 7th, it's entirely up to how much faith you have. I'd take him 7th at 3B.

Jose Guillen, OF: Currently going round late teens (52nd OF). YOU take him: Jose could go either way right now, and because of the uncertainty, I'd probably take him as a 5th/6th OF with an option to sub in case he goes back to his old stats. He's 27, so the time is now to lay the framework for what remains of his career. I'll tell you with confidence at this stage the .311 AVG of '03 is completely over his head. Guys who K 95 times and BB 24 don't hit .311 over the long haul. The power could be more legit (just like Glaus), but despite the buzz about Oakland, Angel Stadium is even less of a righty's HR park and he just hit 8 in OAK. Bet on almost 20 HR and probably .270 with AVG. There are safer bets.

Adam Kennedy, 2B: Currently going late teens (10th 2B). YOU take him: Assuming you took an elite level 2B earlier in the draft (please do), I'll say that Kennedy is just about the best candidate for your 2B/SS slot in baseball. Even if he's your main guy, you won't be completely disappointed. He gained a truckload of patience last year (going from 19 BB in '02 to 45 BB in '03 and dropping his K from 80 to 73) and if that sticks, his AVG could rise for real this time. The .312 in '02 was a mirage, so a jump this year to, say, .285 with the same patience as last year would be legit. He's got a little pop and a little speed (both legit). Don't get crazy, but Kennedy is a good pick in the 18-20 round range. Take him as early as 8th at 2B.

Darin Erstad, OF: Currently going at clean up time (68th OF). YOU take him: I really wouldn't. He's just got very little to add that you can't find elsewhere with a much greater upside. Yeah, he went .355/25/100 in '00, but if you asked a Magic 8-ball if that were going to happen again, you'd no doubt get something like "Not Very Likely" as your answer. Look elsewhere.

Jeff DaVanon, OF: Currently going at clean up time (75th OF). YOU take him: Come on, you didn't actually think I was going to suggest this, did you? He's got some speed, okay (and that's scarce), but I'm not sure if he'll get enough diamond time to flesh that out again this year. Four of the 12 dingers you may remember were at Hiram Bithorn Stadium against the 'Spos, and last time I checked, I could even knock one outta there. He isn't a sleeper, he's just Jeff.

Tim Salmon, OF: Currently going at clean up time (80th OF). YOU take him: Now this is an Angel that could actually give you some significant help with a last-round-or-two pick. The power's not what it once was, but his patience is at career-high levels and his SLG took a little spike in the 2nd half last year. He could certainly go .285/20/85 and with a last pick, that ain't bad at all. Funny how his line could look very similar to Guillen's who'll go probably at least five rounds earlier.

Francisco Rodriguez, P: Currently going at clean up time. YOU take him: Clearly he's got talent and will help air condition Angel Stadium throughout the summer, but he's still only 22 and there'll be speed bumps. He's had some pretty good fortune so far, and could certainly give you a cheap win here and there, but don't bank on a sub-3.50 ERA. If you've got the spot, he won't hurt you, but he won't get you many saves either as long as Percival's healthy. If Troy should go down though and he gets the nod to close, you'll be glad you had the insurance. All this is wonderful, but like most ESPN drafters, for now I wouldn't roster him.

Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.

Armas Out/Good Spring

2004-03-24T23:39:00.000-05:00

Armas is Back Out

Just when you thought it was safe to include Armas among your early season pick-up sleepers to wow your opponents with your foresight and panache, Tony is back on the shelf again. Seventeen pitches into his simulated game last Thursday, he experienced a mild right deltoid strain. The Expos have now declared that they have no intention of rushing him to be ready for Opening Day--which simply means he won't be ready. GM Omar Minaya said Armas could possibly be ready for action by mid-to-late April, two keys words in that sound bite being could and possibly. If you really want to stash TA in your IR spot, I wouldn't recommend against it, but in ESPN leagues where there's just one of said spots, I don't know if he's the one player in all of MLB to focus on for it.

Whose Arm to Replace Armas?

The Expos are looking at four contenders to replace Armas in the rotation until he returns (whenever that will be). The list (in random order) is Seung Song, Sun Woo Kim, Shawn Hill, and Jeff Farnsworth. Farnsworth was a non-roster invitee and it's showing (9 IP, 5 R, 3 HR, 6 BB, although with 10 K). Kim and Song are both having ridiculously awful springs (Song, 8.10 ERA in 10 IP w/4 HR and Kim a 7.71 ERA in 9 IP w/4 K & 7 BB). I think this could mask a potentially decent upside for Song at least. His combined stats last year at AA/AAA were a 3.07 ERA with 84 K and 57 BB over 146 IP). Not great (or really even very good), but certainly worth a stream or two if that's your cup of tea. I'd forget Kim for now (and maybe for good). His MLB totals look like this: 5.66 ERA, 61 K, 43 BB).

In a word--oy. He's only given up 6 HR in those 105 innings but singles and walks hurt just as bad and he's not even that extreme a ground ball pitcher, so it's most likely an anomaly considering his other numbers. There is one bright spot for both of them. They combined on a 6 hit shutout of the Orioles today, Kim taking a no-hitter into the 5th, for whatever that's worth (not much). Hill's my current favorite for the job--but not because of his skills. Here is his response on the opportunity to replace Armas: "It might open up a window for me, but I'm not expecting to be there." What confidence. Who wouldn't want a guy like that in the rotation? Give it to Hill, Frank. He's definitely got his head on straight.

Watermelon, Watermelon, Watermelon Rind

Don't look now (really, don't look), but the 'Spos are 14-6 this spring, to date the best record of any team in the NL East and in the entire Grapefruit League. The burning question (not really, I've actually had a grand total of zero e-mails on this): Does it mean anything? That'd be no. The Expos finished with the best NL East spring record last year (2nd in Grapefruit) only to finish 4th. What it does mean is that they have a lot of players who are fighting for their 25-man-roster lives. Proof? Some spring AVG updates: Cepicky-.478. Bergeron-.447. Sledge-.417. Calloway-.350. Robinson says he's got an idea who the regular LF will be. He won't tell, of course, but I'm gonna try and read his mind. (heavy mental strain) The answer came back Termel Sledge. We'll see if I'm right.

And Then There Were 42

The 'Spos ended the dreams of nine players this past weekend, none of any fantasy notoriety except for maybe Pat Mahomes (okay, he doesn't have any fantasy value either, although in 1994 he went 9-5 in 21 starts for Minnesota). Mahomes was reassigned to minor league camp, where he'll most likely start the season with the AAA Edmonton Trappers. According to the team website, when asked about his demotion, he replied, "Evidently, they want to see results in Spring Training." Apparently no one told Pat that training camp isn't just about exchanging recipes with the other roster hopefuls (although I bet he'd bake a good lemon meringue pie as sour as he sounds). Robinson said that Mahomes could still make the big league team, so keep on bakin', Pat.

Closer Watch

Why I'm doing this is beyond me, but I would like to point out again an option for Frank and Omar to use at closer should Biddle find trouble early in the year. Jeremy Fikac continues to pitch well this spring (9 IP, 11 K, 5 H, 3 ER). As I said last week, not overpowering, but all those runs and all but one of those hits came in a one-inning faux pas earlier in Spring Training. Otherwise, 8 IP, 11 K, 1 H. Don’t forget that his career OBA is lower than both Biddle's and Ayala's and his K/9 is also (Fikac 7.6, Biddle 6.3, Ayala 5.8). I know Cordero's the popular "young gun" pick, but Fikac's got 100 IP of experience on him as well. Robinson says Biddle's earned the chance to begin as closer--and I agree--but I'd have Fikac waiting at the gate of the bullpen just in case.

Waiting Patiently (Somewhat) for the Regular Season

I can't wait for the season to begin. We finally won't have to hear any more players say, "This is the best shape I've been in in years." If that were true, then MLB wouldn't have paid out over $283 million dollars to players on the disabled list in 2002 and had their "employees" miss collectively over 24, 000 days, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Now these figures are down, but nobody's fooling anyone with all those "I’m in great shape" platitudes. But until they stop, I figure that I can say, reporting for the Expos as the season draws near--and in the best shape I've been in in years--this is Matt Allen--ESPN.

Archive site: http://exposflb.blogspot.com

Draft Quick Hits, 3.24.2004

2004-03-24T00:00:00.000-05:00

Orlando Cabrera, SS: Currently going 6-8 round (8th SS). YOU take him: As early as 3rd SS, no later than 5th SS. The SS are goin’ early this year (10 in first 80, top 5 in first 30). I’d take him no later than 5th, ahead of Matsui, Furcal, and even Jeter. He’s gonna run (only Renteria will run more). Get your power and then snag O.

Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 4th 2B, maybe even 3rd (after Soriano and Boone). Between Kent, Giles, and Vidro, Kent will give you more power but less AVG. Giles will have a (maybe)little more power and lot more speed, but probably significantly less AVG. Therefore, it depends on what you need at 2B. Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.

Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from round13-19 (15th 1B). YOU take him: Closer to 13, although it might be safe to let him fall a couple. He’s still dropping slightly on the draft charts, which makes absolutely no sense. His upside is huge and if he’s hitting 5th and that could be huge also. AVG, R, solid HR, and maybe big RBIs. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did. But right now, he is healthy (.348 AVG, .478 SLG this spring), and if he stays that way, I can see him possibly posting numbers better than Klesko, Nevin, and even Frank Thomas, who are all being drafted ahead of him.

Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: mid to late teens. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: his right handed hitting (he’s a switch hitter for the uneducated). Trust me. He didn't perform from the right side in '01 and '02 (.197 and .220 respectively), but last year he rebounded for a respectable .254. Above .280 AVG this year from the right side and watch out. Power wise, three year trend in rising G/F ratio means power is definitely available. However, OF is really deep I've found better options usually available until the 16th round or so are available.

Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 20 of the other closers in MLB. He's actually pitched pretty well this spring, though (4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 5 K, 2 BB), and claims that with a little help, he could be able to close over the long haul. However—FRAGILE: Handle With Care.

Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (64th P, 40th SP). YOU take him: early to mid teens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. Others are catching on--he's moved up 3 picks on average this past week alone. He's still going 40th among SP while he’s around 20th in terms of talent. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. In my first draft, I got him in the 19th round. Next draft--22nd round. Those are ridiculous steals. My third draft I took him in the 12th for safe measure. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.30, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see. It may look like I'm putting a lot of my eggs (upcoming Easter reference) in one basket with Livan, but I like my basket.

Chad Cordero, P: Currently going at clean up time (81st P, 32nd RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. Please. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Before long (see my current article), he could be behind Jeremy Fikac. Yet, for some reason, he's still being taken ahead of Jose Mesa and David Riske--who actually are confirmed closers. Cordero doesn't even have the job. He's not even close in the short term. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.

Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is could wane hitting leadoff. If he gets his wish, and Sledge or even Bergeron leadoff, then 20 isn't far-fetched. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). It's looking more and more like he may not have to hit leadoff, so I'd say it's definitely worth the risk.

Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.

Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. So far they're strong (.417 AVG, .500 SLG). If they stay solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.

Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.

Armas Cleared, LF Situation, Livan

2004-03-17T21:10:00.000-05:00

First Spring Cuts

Tonight's game against the Mets marks the midway point of Spring Training for the Expos (or the "first phase", as Robinson recently referred to it) and the first cuts have been made. I have optioned the old archive site to the trash can (lack of performance) and named the new HQ site (http://exposflb.blogspot.com) the Opening Day starter barring injury. You can go there now for the updated Draft Quick Hits. The only move the big league team has made is to assign catcher Brad Cresse to Arizona, whom they acquired from them last year for a player to be named later. The deal was he had to make the Opening Day roster for it to go through. So much for that. Frank has said that there will, however, be some cuts by the end of the week. I'll keep you posted.

Armas is cleared for takeoff

He only started 3 games last year, teasing us with great numbers. This spring, he's been battling bicep pain, but as of Monday, Tony Armas has been cleared for game action. He completed a three-inning simulated game and threw all his pitches. All looked good except the slider, said pitching coach Randy St. Claire. This could be attributed to his lack of throwing it in his first few sessions, laying off it due to the concern over his bicep. He is scheduled to start March 23rd in one of the split squad games and gather two more starts before Opening Day. The 'Spos are quickly running out of games to do that with the proper rest between starts, but all indications are that he'll be ready. Draft him? Not at this point. He'll be there later, so there's no reason to jump the gun yet.

PB, J, & a Sledgehammer

Despite how it sounds, this is not a Gallagher comedy bit. It's the three front-runners to be the Supreme Head for the Montreal six-headed monster in LF. PB would Peter Bergeron, who is playing for his major league life, out of options and set for waivers if he doesn't make the team. Frank has said previously that he only makes it if he's the starter. No pressure there. Despite PB hitting a mind-numbing .464 so far this spring (13-28), Robinson is not conceding he'll even make the team yet. "He could go 0-for-the next 20 games. Then what will we say?" How about bye-bye? Will PB keep goin' nutty or will he be outta the lineup in a jif (sorry)? I vote the latter. His past numbers aren't creamy (career .226 AVG, .305 OBP in 1000+ ABs).

Not what the Expos need in the leadoff spot, which is most likely where he'd hit in a perfect world. As for the J, Juan Rivera is definitely "jammed" up (sorry again) this spring, going 3 for 16 (.188). It's looking like he could start the season as #4 in the OF. As for the Hammer, Termel Sledge is living up to the hype thus far (7-17, .412). Now, that's only four hits difference when you compare him to Rivera, so don't weigh all this too heavily yet. So what's happenin' with Chavez, Calloway, and Vaspucci? Calloway's 6 for 17 and Vaspucci's 5 for 15, so neither of them are eliminating themselves from contention. As for Endy Chavez? That'd be 2 for 22 (.091). Frank said he could get hot any day now, but for Endy's sake, it'd better be yesterday or he's in trouble.

For Your Consideration

Now, Frank and GM Omar Minaya haven't exactly asked me for insight on the closer issue yet (something tells me I'd better not hold my breath), but I'd like to throw another name into the mix. I mentioned in my last column about Biddle and his downside. Ayala and Cordero each have their own question marks, so while the Expos have all these potential closers with issues, what's one more? I offer up Jeremy Fikac. He's relatively young and can strike guys out (7.6 K per 9 in 111 MLB IP). He has a tendency to give up the long ball--which won't help in Olympic/Bithorn--but his career OBA is lower than both Biddle and Ayala. His spring line is 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 9 K, 2 BB. However--all 4 hits and 3 runs came in one outing. Take that away--6 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 0 hits. Somethin' to think about.

The Underestimation of Livan Hernandez

No, this isn't an independent foreign film. I've had 2 drafts now, and I've got him in the 19th and the 22nd round. This is unbelievable to me. He's currently going anywhere from rounds 15-22. If you've read the Quick Hits, you know I'm big on him. This is a guy who had a 2.42 ERA after the break last year. He's durable (he's pitched 200 innings or more 5 of the last 6 years), he doesn't throw a lot of meat, and his BBs have gone down while his Ks have gone up. On a team with a better bullpen, I'd be repeating "20 wins" over and over again. On the 'Spos, 15 is definitely safe and I really think there'll be more. If he avoids burnout (and his stats say that's not as much of a risk as it once was), I have stolen a great starting pitcher in both of my drafts.

Odds and Ends

One spring stat that I find positive and worth being excited about is Brad Wilkerson's 3 K's in 17 ABs. BW whiffed in a ridiculous 31% of his ABs last year and 32% in 2002. So while it's only 17 ABs, and the bad news is he only has 2 hits so far (.118), at least he's putting it in play. That's something to build on for him. Also, I've maligned Tony Batista's hitting skills all over the place so far this spring. But the man's got chicken pox, and at his age, that's no picnic. Get well soon, TB. Finally, according to the team website, Rocky Biddle's wife is pregnant. The name plan? A boy=Rocky. A girl=Charlie. Here's hoping that Rocky spends this season not only improving his pitching but reading one of those baby naming books. Reporting for the Expos, this is Matt Allen--ESPN.

Draft Quick Hits, 3.17.2004

2004-03-17T01:40:00.000-05:00

Orlando Cabrera, SS: Currently going 6-8 round (8th SS). YOU take him: As early as 3rd SS, no later than 5th SS. The SS are goin’ early this year (10 in first 80, top 5 in first 30). I’d take him no later than 5th, ahead of Matsui, Furcal, and even Jeter. He’s gonna run (only Renteria will run more). Get your power and then snag O.

Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going round 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 4th 2B, maybe even 3rd (after Soriano and Boone). Vidro will bring you mega-AVG, solid pop, and hitting 3rd, RBIs as well. Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.

Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from round 13-19 (15th 1B). YOU take him: Closer to 13, although it might be safe to let him fall a couple. He’s still dropping slightly on the draft charts, which makes absolutely no sense. His upside is huge and if he’s hitting 5th and that could be huge also. AVG, R, solid HR, and maybe big RBIs. If he’s not healthy, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did. But right now, he is healthy, hitting .421 this spring and slugging .579. If he stays healthy, hop on and enjoy the stats.

Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: 15th round or so. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: his right handed hitting (he’s a switch hitter for the uneducated). Trust me. He didn't perform from the right side in '01 and '02 (.197 and .220 respectively), but last year he rebounded for a respectable .254. So did the rest of his stats. Above .280 AVG this year from the right side and watch out. Power wise, three year trend in rising G/F ratio means power is definitely available.

Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. Biddle’s the man for now, though, but I’d take him after at least 20 of the other closers in MLB. His back also makes him a health risk. He's claiming he may have to change his mechanics now to help it heal. That's not something you want to hear three weeks from Opening Day. In other words—FRAGILE: Handle With Care.

Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (64th P, 39th SP). YOU take him: early to mid tens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. Others are catching on. He’s way too good to be going 39th among the starters. But even that's up, so his value is catching on. At worst, he’s around 20th in terms of talent. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. In my first draft, I got him in the 19th round. Next draft--22nd round. Those are ridiculous steals. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.30, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a huge if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see.

Chad Cordero, P: Currently going at clean up time (81st P, 32nd RP). YOU take him: Forget him for now. He may be behind Ayala in replacing Biddle. Before long (see my current article), he could be behind Jeremy Fikac. Long term, he’s your man. Short term, pass him by.

Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: He’s a fine pick to fill out your OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is could wane hitting leadoff. If he gets his wish to hit later in the order, and Sledge or even Bergeron hits leadoff, then 20 isn't far-fetched. His OBP is good (career .368), but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). He’s gonna hit leadoff most likely, but that only means more runs if he quits striking out. Worth the risk, though.

Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.

Termel Sledge, OF: Currently not being drafted. YOU take him: Don’t get ahead of the boat on this one. But watch his spring numbers closely. So far they're strong (.412 AVG). If they stay solid and he starts the season relatively strong (and in the starting lineup), then take him quick as a last OF. Big bargain in that role. Minor league numbers last year--.324/22/92 with 95 R and 13 SB. Oh, it’s solid alright. Only problem—27 and NO experience.

Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.