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Friday, April 29, 2005

April Fools? West Coast Edition 

I did something earlier this week over on the Reds page that has gotten a significant response from readers. I hadn't really planned to do it here, but since it was well received and sparked debate in NL, then it probably can't hurt to do it in the junior circuit. Besides, it fits all teams and all fantasy players in that we're all familiar with the "late-April freak-out". That includes 1 of 2 things--removing your fist from the ceiling a la Pepsi commercial because you drafted Brian Roberts OR assuring your friends and family that they can remove the suicide watch despite all your "can't miss" draft picks stinking up the place and leaving you in dead last in your league. Currently, I'm in the 2nd group and I just wanna say, "Mom, Dad--I'm gonna be okay."

John Lackey

A year ago, I called Lackey "The Riddler"--so much genius yet we can't explain why he uses it all for evil. Then, Lackey pitched better than his already respectable numbers in the second half of '04. His K/9 shot up to 8.5 with a 9-5 record and 4.36 ERA. 2005, then, looked much brighter. Well, he's yet to make it through the 6th inning in 5 starts and although he's striking batters out, he's walked 2 or more in 4 of the 5. He's also averaged 103 pitches in those starts, showing terrible economy there. I said just last week that Lackey's problem is primarily in his head, and last night was a small step forward, winning at The Stadium. He's FOOLING you. History says he'll get the walks down and start pitching better. Start him in good matchups, and don't give up yet.

Jarrod Washburn

Wash has been a tale of 2 starters so far this year. Starts 1-3-5: 1-0, 0.42 ERA, 17 K in 21.2 IP. Starts 2-4: No decisions, 9.58 ERA in 10.1 IP. If Lackey is The Riddler, then Washburn should definitely be cast as Two-Face. Who can you expect the rest of the season? I've said many times the risk with Wash is all your own and I wouldn't roster him. On the bright side, I do think Wash's WHIP will go down--he's not walking many hitters (7 in 32 IP) and his opponents are getting some extra hits to drop in (35% hit rate). What's interesting to note about his inconsistency is that his number of good starts heave remained steady (about 2 in 5), but his terrible starts have increased the last 3 years (up to 1 in 5 in '04). That means his April is probably FOOLS GOLD. At your own risk.

Steve Finley

One of 2 big offensive additions this year, Finley has managed a whopping .165 AVG through April. He was asked a couple of weeks ago by a LA reporter what would bring him out of his current slump and he replied, "May." He may be right. Since 2002, he's a .229 hitter in April. May? .309. June? .349. Finley's start is definitely FOOLING you. His 19% hit rate tells you that alone. His '02-'04 average was 29%, which would raise his AVG dramatically. He's also making contact almost 90% of the time, and it's hard to slump for long when you're consistently putting the ball in play. Steve will hit 20+ bombs for a much better average and in the 5 or 6 hole probably drive in close to or more than 100 runs. He's still pretty universally owned, but now's the time for a cheap trade.

Garret Anderson

There are a lot of things to not like about 2005 for Anderson. He's walked twice in a month (although admittedly he's never walked very much), getting the free pass in only 2% of his ABs. His BB/K is the lowest of his career. He's not hitting for much power and it doesn’t look like his bat is very live. I'm not surprised at all at his 2 HR total. A lot of people e-mailed me before Opening Day asking whether we'd see the GA of old and I told them I thought we would. I may have been wrong. Yes, he's still hitting.300, but it sure doesn't appear as if the power has come back to his back since his injury last year. His .433 SLG is a mark we haven't seen since 1997. I hate to say it, but GA's start may not be fooling you. It may just be BITTER REALITY.

Around the Halo

Way too early to proclaim "I told you so", but did Kelvim Escobar look solid in his first start or what? I know guys who'd still deal him--you'd do well to identify them now. They won't deal him 4 weeks from now--trust me. Adam Kennedy is tearing up AAA. How's a .538 AVG with 2 SB sound after 3 games? Yeah, it's AAA, but as soon as he's got his wind, he'll be back and it looks like he's 100%. That's a good sign--especially since he's got to prove that he's better than Figgins now. Bengie Molina should also be back fairly soon. His start was notable and I'd expect it to continue when he returns as long as the injury doesn't linger. Macier Izturis is gone for 4-6 weeks but won't need surgery. You AL owners can waive his anemic offense now. That's leaves 3B all to D-Mac.

Which begs the question--how will Dallas McPherson do with all the pressure of having to fill the spot in the lineup, fly or flop, with minimal experience on a team that figures to win the division? I'll take an in-depth look at McPherson next time. A lot of owners are expecting big things from him (and they should), but is 2005 too early? It shouldn't have been a surprise that A-Rod tagged Bartolo Colon for 3 bombs and 10 RBI on Tuesday. Prior to that, he was hitting .378 with 3 HR and 5 RBI off him anyway. It was good to win 2 of 3 at the Stadium, regardless of how old the Yankee lineup is. Not new though. The Angels are 8-4 there the last 3 years. Finally, the Press Enterprise logged the bullpen ERA at 0.91 the last 39.2 IP. That's just pure. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Friday, April 22, 2005

Boy, I'm Just a Tease 

Two columns ago, I finished with a warning that K-Rod may actually have a chink in his armor that was going unnoticed. I promised you I'd fill you in on that last time--and then proceeded to forget all about it. In my defense, until the past 2-gamer with the Tribe, he hadn't had much work to assess. Now, with 7 IP, 11 K, 0 BB, 3 saves, and a win, it seems foolish to try and poke holes in what he's doing--because it's obviously working. I will say this though--the chink I mentioned was that his slider, at least early on in the year (and in the spring), had lost 4-6 MPH of velocity, which is cause for concern because that's his best pitch. However, it's still breaking like someone in the first base dugout has it on a string--in a word, megafilthy. So, watch it, but K-Rod's fine.

The Season Premiere of "Mending Wings"

In the first episode of the season, Kelvim Escobar completes his minor-league rehab stint and is all set to make his season debut on Sunday Night Baseball against the Elephant Men. Oakland's O has been pretty anemic so far, scoring the fewest runs in the AL, but this is Kelvim's first start, so he's likely to be at least a little rusty. The good news is that he's had enough rehab work to not worry about a pitch count. Also, Adam Kennedy is prepping to start his minor league rehab as well. He'll do that at AAA Salt Lake and according to the team site, Scioscia mentioned that May 6 was the target date for his return. Figgins owners shouldn't worry--AK's return only makes the Halos deeper. Lastly, Bengie Molina is still shooting to return on May 3 when he's eligible.

The Little Man Cometh…Quietly

Chone Figgins is hitting .237. His OBP is .277. His walked only 4 times versus 13 whiffs. Does anyone smell something? Maybe, but Figgs is still getting it done. He's hit safely in 11 of 16 games this year, scored 10 times already and hit 2 HRs with 8 RBI. He's also swiped 4 bags, which puts him on pace for 40--most of this out of the 9 hole. I mentioned in a previous column that his .297 AVG from '04 might be a bit above his head, but he's .308 over the last week. Before that, though, he was hitting .256. Expect something around .270 for '05, but know that even though it's quiet and also from the bottom of the order, Chone shouldn't have any trouble passing 30-33 SBs and scoring 70-75 runs. Don't expect him to move from the 9 hole--it seems Cabrera is now the 2nd option there.

DH Controversy? Should There Be?

Jeff DaVanon is hitting a crowd-pleasing .175 right now, which creates a gaping hole in the 2 spot. Granted, he's had bad luck (21% hit rate), but even his normal H% would only produce a .250 AVG. Juan Rivera has 12 less ABs but a .250 AVG. Neither guy's performance screams, "Play Me!", but Rivera can hit for a better AVG. He makes better contact and even hits righties better than DaVanon, who is getting the ABs against RHP. DaVanon, however, has a lot more speed, will walk more, and probably has a little more power as well. Who plays? Maybe go with a different sort of platoon--play Rivera against the better pitchers and DaVanon against the 4 and 5 guys. Rivera's faced the Unit, Clemens, and Pettite each 1 game and gotten hits off all three. He's 4-7 vs. Carl Pavano.

Around the Rotation

One year ago today, Bartolo Colon got his 3rd win to go to 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA. After that, he went in the tank, only winning 2 more through June and hitting the break with a 6.38 ERA. Don't expect that to happen again. He's pitching way better this time around although some of his numbers are eerily similar (3-1, 2.60). He was absolutely dealing to the Tribe Wednesday night. It was very pretty. It will be hard to get your hands on him, but BC would be an excellent pitcher to target for an early season trade. Find an owner that remembers last year. Jarrod Washburn is officially annoying. Here's how's his 4 starts have gone: good, crap, great, crap. He did K 5 in his latest, which isn't bad, and he's shown early that he can give you a great start, but who knows when that will be?

The LA Times reported Scioscia and pitching coach Bud Black had a little private powwow with John Lackey Monday due to his, er, subpar performance of late. Scioscia expressed confidence in JL, but mentioned, "when he hits a bump in the road, his frustration level rises." I would agree that a large part of Lackey's problems are in his head, but it's hard to ignore the 4 walks in each of his first 2 starts. It was also hard to ignore his third start, when he didn't walk anyone, but every mistake pitch he threw ended up right in the middle of the plate, begging to be crushed. Ten hits and 7 ER later, he was headed to the showers again. I'd bench Lackey for now if you have that luxury, but I'm going to stand by my previous higher hopes for him. This head game is one he can win.

D-Mac is Back…And a New E-Mail!

Dallas McPherson got the call up when Bengie Molina hit the DL, but it appears he may not have had enough time at Salt Lake to sort things out after his back injury. He was in a bit of a hot streak there, but since returning to the Halos, he's 1-10 with 6 K. Yikes. Exercise patience with McPherson. He's obviously quite rusty. Finally, in preparation for taking the Nestea plunge of marriage in just 29 days now (tick, tick, tick), I'm setting up a new e-mail address for you. We go from "InsidetheHalo" to just ITH@insightbb.com. You can reach me there now. Response time could be just a hair slower because while I've moved my computer in with my bride-to-be, I won't follow until after the nuptials. Rest assured, though, I'll answer ASAP. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Thursday, April 14, 2005

Parity, Parity, Parity 

Nine games in and first place in AL West is 5-4. Last place is 4-5. This is going to be one of the most intriguing divisions in baseball this season, where the slightest margin of error could make all the difference. Baseball, as a whole, in my mind, is the parity king of professional sports (more on that later). The Halos are alone in 1st for now, but the other 3 teams sure are crowding the plate. The Angels and Rangers have already logged 2 super series and I'm just going to forget losing 2 of 3 at home to the Royals for now. Gonna just gloss right over that. Right now, we're gonna look at the rotation, a little injury news (all of it good in fact), and other miscellany.

Head, Shoulders, Knees, and Toes

Vlad DHed on Wednesday after getting popped in the knee with a catcher's throw on a stolen base. With the day off today and the knee feeling much better, he'll be A-OK for Friday. Kelvim Escobar threw a bullpen session on Monday and is scheduled Thursday for the Class A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (another cool minor league name, by the way). His elbow should be ready to go 4/19 in Seattle if there aren't any more setbacks. Dallas McPherson is hitting .238 at AAA Salt Lake, so while he's technically capable of being called up, don't expect that until he can show he's ready. For those of you who drafted him, he's becoming a higher risk proposition daily. No, Quinlan/Izturis/Merloni isn't the solution the Halos want at 3B, but Dallas will have to show he's up to speed first.

Worried About BD?

I was too. (Did that just sound like a commercial for some embarrassing disease?) Anyway, like many of you, I drafted Brendan Donnelly on a one or more (it's hard to keep track) of my teams and I'm less than satisfied with my return thus far. It seems as if every time he hits the hill, he's giving up runs. That's because he has in 3 of his 4 outings. Bail? No. While the 7.94 ERA and 1.76 WHIP are hideous, his K/9 was 12.0 in '04 and has been at 9.6 or higher the last 3 seasons. His K/BB was a career high 3.7 last year. He also got hit softer than ever before (opponents' LD% was only 16). He had a good spring too--all signs pointing to the fact that he'll soon rebound and be the ERA, WHIP, and holds hound that he's been in the past. Rest easy.

He's Not a Cookie

Chone Figgins is off to an unfavorable start as well. He's hitting south of .200 and--has a grand total of zero stolen bases? You're excused if you're asking, "I thought I paid for a speedster here." Well, the last two tilts in Texas show that Figgs is coming around. 5 runs scored, 3-7, and 2 BB, and the OBP shoots up almost 100 points. If he stays near the bottom of the order, it's possible he won't score as many runs as his 83 total last year. But the SBs are just a matter of time. Scioscia is a running manager and led the AL last year by calling 189 SB attempts. He's called at least 168 every year since 2001, so you can be sure Figgins will run plenty. The one possible thing you might not see return is the .296 AVG. Something around .280 might be more on target.

Around the Rotation

If you're worried that Bartolo's Colon is gonna stink again in the first half, don't panic yet. He's looked better than his numbers in the first 2 starts. Who does leave cause for concern is John Lackey, who's posted 8 BB in 9.2 IP. He doesn't usually pitch well in Texas, though. Watch those walks very closely--he normally has good control. Paul Byrd hasn't been as bad as his numbers suggest, but mediocre is the best I can say about him. Only spot start him in very favorable circumstances for now. Just like always, Jarrod Washburn in maddeningly inconsistent. One great start, one spine-chillingly awful one. The risk is all yours. And about that Escobar rehab start. The Halos must feel pretty good about him--fill-in starter Kevin Gregg threw 1.2 innings of relief Wednesday night.

Elephants, Sailors, and the Tribe

They're up next for the Halos. The A's series (as always) will be entertaining. The Angels won't see either of the youngins (Haren and Blanton) for Oakland. Zito and Harden, though, await. Saarloos is slated for Sunday--he's one of those borderline soft-tossers that nibble, nibble, nibble. If the Angels are patient, they should rake. They aren't necessarily known for patience though. Then it's back home for mini 2-gamers with Seattle and Cleveland. Game 1 of the Seattle series will probably see the Angels facing ex-Halo Aaron Sele. That will be fun (but probably not for Sele). Watch and enjoy. To watch and enjoy the continuing action on this page, click the E-mail Notification button (top right) to be informed as soon as a new column has arrived (shameless self-promotion over).

Who Has Competitive Balance?

I always hear about the NBA and NFL and their competitive balance because of their salary cap and blah, blah, blah. I hear about how some of baseball's teams are finished before the season starts. That may be a little true, but I noticed something recently--since the beginning of 1986, only 5 NBA teams have won championships. Four of those have repeated (only San Antonio didn't)! The NFL has had 11 different champs, but there are 6 teams with 2 or more and again 4 teams have repeated. Major League Baseball, the sport with no competitive balance (so they say), has crowned 12 different champions in that span and only the mighty Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays have been champs 2 years in a row. Now, who has competitive balance? That's right. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Friday, April 08, 2005

Down With Chuck Norris and His Texas Rangers! 

What an opening series in Anaheim. All one-run games! Two won in a final at-bat! One in extra innings! Are you kidding me? Are you serious? (Finished channeling Dick Vitale now). We have 159 more of these to go? Are you absolutely super-charged for this season or do you need your very own Total Gym to get worked up about it (Chuck and Christie Brinkley not included). The Angels took the series from the guys in blue and after watching these games and also keeping tabs on Oakland and Seattle, it shocks me that someone will actually have to finish 4th in this division (probably Seattle). Nonetheless, the AL West is packed with good teams and should be fun times and high drama all season long. Even just 3 games in, there's already a lot to talk about.

Night and Day

Perhaps the freshest thing on Angel fan's minds is the absolute meltdown by John Lackey in Thursday's series finale. Innings 1-4: 0 hits, 4 K, 1 BB. Inning 5: 2/3 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 ER, 2 wild pitches. Lackey was disturbed after Richard Hidalgo broke up the no-hitter, but the tank job truly began when rookie Adrian Gonzalez fought out a walk in a 15 pitch AB. JL was totally flustered to lose him, and it showed the rest of his outing. He clearly has the potential to be an excellent pitcher for the Angels in '05 (Texas is not an easy lineup to master, even on the road), but he'll have to develop some kind of mental game to do it. I've said it many times before--Lackey has the skills to be a very good pitcher for your roster and for the Angels. His head will determine his success in '05.

Escobar/McPherson Update

Noticeably absent in the first series were two Angels who were supposed to have a key part in the Angels lineup early on. Kelvim Escobar, slotted for the #2 hole in preseason, may throw a bullpen session on Friday. If that goes well, he'll throw a minor league start late next week. The elbow problem still appears to be minor, and depending on how Kevin Gregg does in his starts, the extra precaution by not rushing him back won't hurt the team too much. Dallas McPherson played in AAA Salt Lake's Opening Night game last night, going 0-3 with a sac fly RBI. He still appears slated for a late April return. Time (as well as AAA performance) will tell. Hopefully, Robb Quinlan's early struggles (1-9) won't force the Halos to rush him back (that seems highly unlikely).

Who's Got the Power?

Don't expect to hear Snap's "The Power" on the sound system during any pre-game activities at Angel Stadium any time soon because the Angels don't have much. The team SLG has gone from 6th in AL during the '02 championship season, to 9th in '03, and 10th in '04. So far this year (although an extremely small sample), the Halos SLG% is .374. Outside of Vlad, it is very believable that no one on the roster will post 25+ HRs, although certainly Anderson, Finley, and McPherson (should he return soon) all have a legitimate shot. The good news is that 2 of the last 3 seasons the Halos have either led or tied for the lead in AL AVG. With bats like Guerrero, Anderson, Finley, Figgins, Erstad, and Bengie Molina in the lineup regularly, they could very well accomplish that feat again.

Quote of the Week

So many of sport's interviews are bland, over-serious, and full of clichés that have no intention of giving a straight answer to the question. I see too few guys who are willing to have a little fun from time to time in an interview. Not that we need 30 teams full of Jose Limas, but it was refreshing to hear Paul Byrd's joke when asked if facing his former team (Kansas City Royals) meant anything extra: "The fact that I'm facing Kansas City is no big deal because all those guys are dumb," he said, according to the team website. With visions of Ron Burgundy dancing in my head, I couldn't help but laugh. Thank you for a moment of levity so early in the year, Paul. By the way, it wouldn't have been dumb at all to nab him for a spot start on your roster for Thursday's game.

Postseason Predictions

Not because you asked for them (you didn't), but because everyone with a computer and a platform will offer them to you, I now present my Official 2005 Postseason Predictions.

AL East: Yankees.
AL Central: Indians.
AL West: Angels.
AL Wild Card: Red Sox.

NL East: Braves.
NL Central: Cardinals.
NL West: Padres.
NL Wild Card: Phillies.

ALCS: Angels over Yankees.
NLCS: Cardinals over Braves.

World Series: Angels over Cardinals.

Now--copy and paste that into a form of your own and save for correspondent ridicule in November. You're welcome.

Royally Ready for Rough Roadie

Three against the hapless Royals at home should be a series win, if not sweep. Any Angel starter in this series (Byrd, Gregg, Colon) is a good bet. The Rangers series that follows in Arlington could be much rougher. Chuck's boys were 51-30 at the newly-monikered Ameriquest Field last year. Only 4 teams won more at home and 2 of those were in the World Series. A third was the A's, whom the Angels will face in a 3-game set in Oakland following the Ranger series. Tough first roadie. Also, with 3 solid IP, 3 K, and only 1 hit allowed thus far, it has become clear already that K-Rod may have a chink in his armor. I'll tell you about that next time and whether it means you should put him on the block. Enjoy the games, folks--baseball is finally here. For the Angels, Matt Allen--ESPN.

Friday, April 01, 2005

Draft/Season Preview Vol. 4 

We’ve looked at the infield, outfield, and the starting rotation (Vols. 1-3). Your final edition of the Preview will take a gander at the bullpen. GM Danny Boy dismantled a pen that was 1 of only 2 that finished with a 5.00+ ERA in the NL. Only 3 faces from last year’s team remain--closer Danny Graves, youngin’ Ryan Wagner, and the fantasy-inconsequential Joe Valentine. We’ll look at Graves, Wagner, and a few new faces to see if the Reds new pen can break 5.00 or if it will be more of the same. At press time (listen to me sound like a big-timey writer), there are still some decisions to be made concerning the pen, but those shouldn’t alter the analysis much. As you know, the last guy in the pen rarely has any effect on the fantasy game--unless he murders the closer or something.

Danny Graves

Speaking of closers, Danny Graves isn't being stalked and neither is his job. Of course, that's because there's been no one with the stuff to take it from him--which is sad because Graves hasn't been closer material since he was handed the job. Even with 41 saves in '04, he only fanned 5.3 per 9, which would've done him in if his control wasn't absolutely pinpoint. His K/9 hasn't been over 5.5 in the last 5 years. He throws a lot of groundballs, which is good at GABP, but the last 2 seasons he's still been tagged for 1.6 HR/9. There's very little to like about Graves, but as long as his control stays where it is (1.7 BB/9), he'll appear serviceable. BOTTOM LINE: Take him in the last batch of closers, knowing that at least you have a closer with job security.

Ryan Wagner

If anyone in this group has the ability to unseat Graves, it's Wagner. He's had an excellent spring (1.38 ERA, 13 IP, 10 K, 3 BB) and he's got excellent stuff when he's on. Therein lies the problem, though--he's only 22 this year and he's way too inconsistent at this point in his young career to get any kind of read. In 2004, he posted a gut-wrenching 5.0 BB/9, ended up in AAA for most of the season, and folks who were proclaiming "Closer in '05!" went running for cover. The good news is that he did improve somewhat in the 2nd half and appears to have a better mental approach this season. BOTTOM LINE: The talent is there. But I'm not sure he's through his growing pains yet. He's a good speculative pick, but watch for consistency before placing too many eggs in his basket.

Kent Mercker/David Weathers/Ben Weber

The Reds forked over about 6 million this year to bring these 3 in, and for your fantasy roster, only 1 seems to be of any value whatsoever. Weathers has a pretty good K-rate, but he's always walked too many and that probably won't change this year. The Human Butter Churn (Weber) could prove to be the worst signing the Reds made this offseason after he was basically shelled out of the Anaheim farm system. AVOID. Mercker, though, shows a little bit of promise, even at 37. The bad news is that the last 2 seasons he's pitched over his head and been quite lucky. The good news--he shaves a few walks and he could be very effective. He's still extremely hard to hit (207 OBA in '04). Despite the luck, the skills are still there. BOTTOM LINE: Weathers, NO. Weber, DOUBLE NO. Mercker, yes.

Matt Belisle/Joe Valentine

Neither of these guys will add anything should they make the team and with the loser of the rotation scramble among Hudson, Hancock, and Claussen probably ending up in the pen as the long man, there will probably be very little work for them anyway. Belisle just doesn't have major league stuff and Valentine walks way too many people to be effective. Valentine has fanned 7 but also walked 7 this spring, showing no improvement. I've discussed Hancock and Claussen already in Vol. 3 (located now at theredletters.blogspot.com), so I won't repeat myself here. BOTTOM LINE: I make a bold prediction that this is the last copy space I allocate to discuss either Belisle or Valentine this season.

Picking at the Carcass

The last 3 seasons the Reds have finished in the top 3 in the NL for reliever wins. That means when you've got a good offense and the starters are lackluster, an adequate reliever will have a chance to post several vulture wins in a season. This year will probably feature more of the same. The rotation is improved, but with exactly 100 vulture wins out of the pen from '02-'04, pick the right reliever and you could end up with 7-9 extra wins for your team. Targets? Mercker's a good bet, Wagner (provided he keeps the BBs down), or maybe even the rotation loser, be it Hancock, Claussen, or Hudson. BOTTOM LINE: It's up to Miley because it's all about opportunity, but your best bet is probably Mercker.

Am I Missing Something Here?

If you're strictly an Angel fan, there's a good chance you're thinking I've flipped my wig. But no--APRIL FOOLS (yes, it's weak, but I didn't have invisible ink or silly puddy). Your Angels bullpen Preview is over at The Red Letters (plus now you see just how good the Angels have it compared to some other less-fortunate teams). Your next regularly-scheduled column will be the first of the regular season, with the play on the field dictating the content (although you can expect the obligatory postseason predictions in there somewhere). I'm looking forward to being with you for a 2nd season covering the Angels. Thanks for all your e-mails (the kind ones anyway); keep 'em coming and I'll do my best to get back to you in a timely fashion. There's only one thing left to say. PLAY BALL!