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Wednesday, February 25, 2004

Draft Quick Hits, 2.25.2004 

Orlando Cabrera, SS: Currently going 6-8 round (8th SS). YOU take him: As early as 3rd SS, no later than 6th SS. (Robinson said the ‘Spos are gonna run more. That means 30+ for O). The SS are goin’ early this year, so let the others take Jeter, Tejada, and Furcal while you’re drafting the big guns. Smile when you draft Cabrera. Hold smile until October.

Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going 6-8 (6th 2B). YOU take him: 5-7 (4th 2B if you need power, 5th after Castillo if you need speed). 2B isn’t deep this year (is it ever?) Be
warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.

Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from 12-18 round (15th 1B). YOU take him: really anywhere in there but know he’s a health risk. If he’s healty, he’s in the middle of the order and that could be huge. If he’s not, well, you might be glad you passed him up if you did.

Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: 15th or so. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: watch his AVG vs. LHP. Trust me. Above .280 this year and watch out.

Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (67th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: It’s a little hard to say. Robinson has suggested letting him share with Ayala and Cordero. He didn’t say “bullpen by committee” but that’s what sharing means. I’d look elsewhere at this point for my saves. At this early date, it’s too risky.

Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 44th SP). YOU take him: early to mid teens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. He’s way too good to be going 44th among the starters. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.25, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds (that’s a big if), he’ll push 20 wins. Don’t laugh, you’ll see.

Chad Cordero, P: Currently going early twenties (78th P, 30th RP). YOU take him: See Biddle.

Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (63 OF). YOU take him: Well, late if you need a 5th/bench OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is waning. His OBP is good, but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). He’s gonna hit leadoff most likely, but that only means more runs if he quits striking out. At your own risk.

Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. His SLG was .393 last year. That reeks. Bad. Only K-king Jose Hernandez had a worse OPS among regular 3B last year. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.

Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.

Camp Chatter/Infield Preview 

“Biddle is the Guy”…for now

There. Frank said it. I typed it. Robinson told Florida Today on the eve of their first workout that Biddle is the closer. “He’s earned it.” Of course, read what follows and also consider that this is, after all, the first day of full-squad workouts. Becuase in a recent interview on MLB.com, Robinson also said that he hoped both Luis Ayala and Chad Cordero would be able to help Biddle out come save time. Although this seems to place Biddle at the top of the closer hierarchy (which, for the record, I said last week), the fact that there is a hierarchy is probably making those of you who drafted him early maybe wish you hadn't. I’ll keep you posted on this lovely story.

As far as strategy issues, Robinson has announced that because the Expos lack a big bat like Guerrero in the lineup this year, they will become more aggressive in their playing style. This means more running. Who does that effect? Probably just Cabrera and Wilkerson. It makes Wilkerson slightly more attractive (but not much) and Cabrera…well, it might put him in the top five SS. In the rotation, Livan Hernandez has been given the nod to start Opening Day on April 6th in Florida against the World Champion Marlins. This will be his 4th Opening Day start and his 1st for the Expos. Here’s a tidbit—Livan is one of only five pitchers who have started 30+ games the last five years. The others? Mike Hampton, Greg Maddux, Bartolo Colon, and Tom Glavine.

The infield—Nick Johnson, 1B

First things first. Let’s look at first. Who’s on first? Nick Johnson, who’s getting his first opportunity to play first full time this year (hey, what’d you expect—I’m talking about the first basemen). Seriously, I’m excited about Nick at first. How excited will completely depend on his health as Spring Training goes along, but I think this could be the beginning of something sweet. Nick’s not got great power, and playing everyday in my mind won’t really change that too much, but the guy can flat out hit. He doesn’t swing at bad pitches too often, he walks like crazy (last year almost 1 of every 5 ABs), and he’s going to be hitting in the middle of the order for once. That probably means he’ll have to swing a little more but if his wrists hold out this year, he’d be a superb pick for your 1B/3B slot. Outstanding pick.

Jose Vidro, 2B

At second, Jose Vidro is a solid option. He’s a solid option every year. He’s been doin’ this for five years now and yet perennially people overlook him. Why? I don’t know. Okay, so he does play in Montreal, but he’s the 4th best 2B in the bigs. Don’t give me Castillo, he’s only got more speed and even that is becoming less of a glaring difference between them. Yeah, Vidro won’t run, but he’s absolutely solid everywhere else. He’s hit .300+ five straight years, his OBP has increased the last three years (.393 in ’03), and he’s walking and hitting more ground balls than ever before. Sure, he may not increase that HR number (expect at least 12-15 though), but if he hits .335 this year, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Orlando Cabrera, SS

Here’s a guy that looks just about ready to ripen. But Cabrera is a player who would likely also be overlooked if he wasn’t playing short. This year, with the Expos supposed more aggressive strategy, he’ll certainly run more (I’m thinking at least 30 SB) and he may join Vidro above .300. Cabrera had career highs in AVG, HR, OBP, SLG, and OPS last year. He’s proven he can be consistent over the course of a season, and the last five years, he’s struck out in no more than 10% of his ABs each year (for the uninitiated, that’s outstanding). He’s definitely good enough and young enough that this could be the year he’s been building toward. Put it like this, by October it would not surprise me if the only SS who had better stats were A-Rod and Nomar.

Tony Batista, 3B

I just took a deep breath here at the keyboard. This is the part of the infield I really don’t wanna talk about. I said last week that the Expos would have a feisty group of infielders that was fun to watch—with one exception. Meet Tony Batista. Now, I see you with you draft sheets out going, “But the dude’s swatted at least 25 big flies the last five years!” Well, zippa-dee-doo-dah, so did six other 3B, none of whom batted under .272, and none of whom had a OBP under .324. Batista hit .235 with a .270 OBP. Five of those six other 3B slugged over .500 (A. Ramirez only .465). Batista? A crowd-pleasing .393. See what I’m gettin’ at here? Of the twenty 3B who qualified for the batting title (502 PA), Batista was 19th in AVG and 18th in SLG. Want one more stat to prove you should avoid him? How about 28 BB vs. 102 K. Yeesh.

On Deck
We’ve done pitchers, catchers, and now the infield. Who’s left? The boys that shag the flies, that man the wall, that roam the alleys—that’s right, the outfielders. The ‘Spos basically have five guys fighting for three starting positions right now. We’ll see who’s goin’ where and all that jazz next week before we take the field against Detroit on March 4th. Shoot me an e-mail at exposflb@insightbb.com if you have any questions. Again, be sure to check out the updated “Draft Quick Hits” at the archive site (http://exposflb.blog-city.com). So far camp is going well, but it’s pretty ho-hum. I’ve got an idea—the Royals invited Garth Brooks to camp. Should we see if Shania Twain is available? She is Canadian. Just a thought. Reporting for the Expos, this is Matt Allen—ESPN.

Wednesday, February 18, 2004

Draft Quick Hits 

Orlando Carbrera, SS: Currently going 6-8 round (8th SS). YOU take him: 6-8 (7th SS—Matsui is a big ?. O is anything but.)

Jose Vidro, 2B: Currently going 6-8 (5th 2B). YOU take him: 5-7 (4th 2B if you need power, 5th after Castillo if you need speed) Be warned if you snub him—he could hit .335 this year.

Nick Johnson, 1B: Currently going anywhere from 12-18 round (15th 1B). YOU take him: really anywhere in there but don’t be upset if you miss him. There are 1Bers goin’ after him that could have better years (Millar, Konerko—bet on Konerko rebounding). Nick could go .315/25/70, but he’ll have to be healthy for a change.

Carl Everett, OF: Currently going mid teens (45th OF). YOU take him: 15th or so. Carl likes to play in the offensive parks and we’ve got two good ones. Key factor: watch his AVG vs. LHP. Trust me. Above .280 this year and watch out.

Rocky Biddle, P: Currently going late teens (65th P, 26th RP). YOU take him: As this point, it’s a little hard to say. I’d take him in the bottom half of the closers (and maybe get Cordero as insurance or vice versa—either that or just look at another team and avoid this mess altogether).

Livan Hernandez, P: Currently going late teens (69th P, 44th SP). YOU take him: early to mid teens -- if the Expos have a major sleeper, it’s him. Everyone knows him, but everyone underrates him. His ERA’s gonna be under 4.00, WHIP under 1.25, 150+ Ks, and if the bullpen holds, he’ll push 20. Don’t laugh, you’ll see.

Chad Cordero, P: Currently going early twenties (79th P, 32nd RP). YOU take him: See Biddle.

Brad Wilkerson, OF: Currently going at clean up time (64 OF). YOU take him: Well, late if you need a 5th/bench OF. He could pop 20, but I think his power is waning. His OBP is good, but he strikes out—A LOT (3rd in NL in 2003). At your own risk.

Tony Batista, 3B: Currently going at clean up time (13th 3B). YOU take him: Don’t. I know he’s hit at least 25 HR the last 5 years, but this is the year it stops. AVG sub-.250 for sure, maybe sub-.240. Leave him alone. Trade for A-Rod.

Any deeper draft analysis you need—shoot me an e-mail.

Battery Preview 

New E-mail

First things first. I have changed my address. You need me--exposflb@insightbb.com and you got me. I'll answer what I can as soon as I can. Also, I promised you detailed draft info. I didn't have room for it on here, but it's listed on my archive site at exposflb.blog-city.com. Look for "Draft Quick Hits". Now, on with the show...

Arms Out--Big Circles!

The final hurrah of the Montreal version of the Expos begins in 46 days. So that means we've gotta get our arms warmed up, right? Let's take a look at the 'Spos rotation. Coming in to camp Numero Uno, is Livan Hernandez. If you've read the Quick Hits, you know I'm high on him. The only Expo pitcher to win 20 games in a season with Montreal was Ross Grimsley in 1978 (Bartolo Colon won 20 in 2002 but won his first ten with the Cleveland Indians). I think this last year Montreal might take the tally to two. Hernandez can do it. It'll take health, work, and luck, but Livan had a 2.42 ERA in the second half last year after changing his mechanics (9-4, 1.05 WHIP, 115 K in 130 IP). He brings that game back, it could really happen. Remember, he's still just 29.

Next up, Tony Armas Jr. could also be a big sleeper if he's healthy. No one's taking him in ESPN drafts right now and that's probably smart. But watch the spring stats. If he's pitching okay, remember him before Opening Day. He only pitched 31 innings last year, which is a small sample to draw from, but he looked good. The stats are there. The only thing that worries me about those stats that was out of character with his past was the low BB total. If he's showing control early--and he's healthy--get him. You'll look smart and all your opponents will grind their teeth as your foresight.

Tomo Ohka is a middle-of-the-road third man. He'll be around 10 wins probably, with a 4.00 ERA or so. He's walking less, but he's whiffing less too. I don't think he'll be able to out-Moyer the NL East, but I could be wrong. Zach Day is an enigma. He's a young pitcher who shows bright spots, but can't really string together more than a month's good work. He's adequate, but the bullpen could end up with a lot of work on his starts. The odds on favorite for the five hole would be Claudio Vargas. He's still young and in the long run will probably be better than Day and Ohka. But now? If he can keep the ball in the ballpark, you might see some improvement this year. Otherwise, expect more bumps in the road for this youngin.

Endgame

There is some debate as to who is the Expos closer. Some say Cordero. Some say Biddle. You say po-tay-to, I say it's Biddle. Sure, Cordero finished the season as the closer and looked good (1 Sv, 1.64 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 11 K in 12 IP), and Biddle looked like...I don't know, Rocky the Squirrel? But Biddle did save 34 games last year, and if he is solid in the spring, Robinson I think may go--or at least start--with Biddle. Cordero was the Expos first round pick LAST YEAR. He's still a kiddie (just 22 by Opening Day) and got plenty of time to take this role and I'm sure he eventually will. But this year? Don't consider it a lock.

Behind the Plate

Well, the Expos have one catcher. That's right. One. Brian Schneider. That's it. So guess who's catching. I'll give you one guess. But he won't have to catch all 162 games. The Expos invited four other non-roster catchers to camp (one of which is vet Gregg Zaun, so plan on him being the back-up). As far as you probably want to know, two of the three other guys are pretty much career minor-leaguers with non-majorworthy stats and the third guy, whose stats are a little better, is older than Zaun, who's 32. So expect Mr. Schneider to get more innings than ever before (he's young, he can take it), maybe nail around a dozen HR, hit near .260, and throw out almost 50% percent of the opposing runners who try to steal (he was 1st in the ML among regular catchers last year in CS%).

Next time

The archive site (once again, exposflb.blog-city.com) will have updated Quick Hits next week while I take an in-depth look at the Montreal infield, which could be a feisty group (with one exception) that's fun to watch. Again, any questions you have for me I'll be happy to address at the new e-mail. Until then, spring has officially sprung and reporting for the Expos, I'm Matt Allen--ESPN.

Wednesday, February 11, 2004

Welcome 

The Greatest Show on National League Turf!

Okay, we're the only show on NL turf. But hey, we don't just provide you with one stadium to watch our games. We've got TWO! I'd like to see all the other NL teams match that. All sarcasm aside, welcome one and all to the early 2004 MLB fantasy season. I'll be your Montreal host, Matt Allen, available for all your 'Spos diamond demands. Feel free to e-mail me at exposflb@hotmail.com for any Expos related topics. I'll be happy to answer what I can as soon as I can.

There's No “V” in Team

Vlad's gone. Vazquez's gone. This Expo team that finished just a shade over the .500 mark last year is due for a HUGE drop, right? Not so fast. The Expos report to Viera/Melbourne, Florida next week to start what will hopefully be their final season north AND south of the border as our good friend Bud has declared that the Expo ownership mess needs to be straightened up by the end of the year. The good news for Expos fans is that this final stadium-hopping season could be much better than it would seem. Even without Vlad and Vazquez, there still may be plenty of V's (as in victories) to go around.

Drafts, drafts...and more drafts

It's that time of year again. The pulse-pounding, desk-smacking, chair-spinning-with-hands-in-the-air-'cause-you-got-that-shortstop-the-other-guys-passed-up, time of year again. Draft time! Drafts are taking place almost continuously on ESPN and other fantasy web sites, so you, as the drafter, need to know about the best draftees to take your team to the top. For the Montreal take, I'll be giving a quick overview of the best options to lay claim to from the 'Spos within the next week. Some of us can't wait for Spring Training to draft, so for you early drafters, I'll give you the best outlook possible for this season for all positions in a few days.

Bing-Bong-BING! (Imagine a battery commercial)

Pitchers and catchers report first, so that's the report I'll give first. Next week when the Montreal battery reports to camp, I'll report with a preview on the rotation, the pen, and guys calling the signals behind the dish. The pitchers and catchers report February 19, all other players on February 24, and the first full squad workout is scheduled for February 25. So until then, reporting for the Expos, this is Matt Allen--ESPN. (Haven't all armchair fans wanted to say that just once?)